Cynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru

Good afternoon and welcome to today's Plenary meeting. The first item on our agenda this afternoon is questions to the First Minister, and the first question is from Jane Dodds. 

We want everyone in Wales to receive the right care, close to home—care that's given with dignity and compassion. But, in order to provide care, we need to ensure that carers are given the support that they need. Every care worker in Wales now earns at least the real living wage, and, with your support, Jane, we've invested an extra £30 million this year to cut hospital delays and help more people recover at home faster. We are also putting money into supporting the vast army of unpaid carers—the real heroes in our families and communities.

Thank you for that response. 

We can see, though, despite those initiatives, that our health and care system is really under unbearable pressure, and that without urgent investment our NHS will remain at breaking point. According to the latest figures, as we’ve all heard, every day, more than 1,300 people who are ready to leave hospital are unable to do so. That costs the NHS nearly £0.75 million each night, but the real cost is to people and communities. At our Welsh Liberal Democrats conference this weekend—I understand there was another conference going on this weekend, as well—we set out a bold and honest plan to transform social care, to invest in prevention, independence and community support, making sure people get the right care, in the right place, at the right time. We’ve been clear and honest that if that means raising a penny on income tax to fund it, then we need to do that, and we need to be clear with voters that that’s what is needed, because Wales needs ambition and action. So, can I ask you, First Minister, given the high level of need, how do you propose to fund the reform and investment our care system so urgently needs? Diolch yn fawr iawn.

Thanks very much. And we are all very aware that we have an ageing population and that the demands are going to increase rather than decrease. And that’s why prevention is absolutely critical, making sure we avoid those admissions into hospital, if possible. And that’s why the additional money that you supported us with last year—£30 million extra—strengthened that discharge support that we could build, and build that community capacity. And I think one of the key things for us to really focus on is what we can do to get into that prevention space. Spending money on home adaptations, reablement, community support we think is a smarter, more compassionate, more sustainable mechanism to make sure that people get the support they need. There will be pressure on the system. I think the fact that we've seen a 15 per cent reduction in total pathways of care delays in the past year demonstrates that we’re heading in the right direction. But it’s that extra additional money that you helped put on the table that has helped with those figures coming down.

First Minister, the Welsh Government has made clear its commitment in the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 to supporting people who require social care, as well as the unpaid carers who sometimes make that care possible. One of the main ways this is meant to happen is through carers' needs assessments, which can help identify what support a carer requires to continue in their role. However, many unpaid carers across Wales are telling us that they have never been offered an assessment, meaning their own well-being and the quality of the care they can provide may be at risk. So, what steps is the Welsh Government taking to make sure that every unpaid carer across Wales is identified and offered a proper needs assessment, and is given the right support they need so that they can be a great carer for their loved ones and their families?

Thanks very much. As someone who spend most weekends getting a mere taste of what being a carer is like, I know the heroic efforts that are made by people up and down our country, both professional and unpaid, who are supporting our most vulnerable people. You're quite right—we need to make sure that we're not just supporting the people who need care, but we're supporting the carers, in particular those unpaid carers. I know Julie Morgan has been a champion of unpaid carers for decades, and I'd like to thank her for that work. It is important that they get their assessments done as well. Clearly, we need to make sure also that we focus on the assessment needs of the patients themselves, the people who need care, and make sure that they are supported, and, clearly, that people also access the financial support that is available to them from the UK Government.

Mabon ap Gwynfor.

I don't have a supplementary question.

You don't have to take that opportunity.

I'm happy to ask one.

No.

You lost your chance there, Mabon ap Gwynfor. [Laughter.]

Question 2, Altaf Hussain.

Helping every child in Wales grow up healthy and active is a national mission for Welsh Labour. Our new 'Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales' delivery plan has a laser focus on children, from pregnancy to school age. We know that deprivation is a key driver, and we're targeting support where it's needed most. We've launched the new Pwysau Iach Plant yng Nghymru programme in Merthyr, Ynys Môn and Cardiff, helping families eat well and stay active, and our plan is to roll this programme out nationwide.

Thank you, First Minister. Sadly, we could have a generation of Welsh children who will be outlived by their parents. A quarter of Welsh children are overweight or obese by the time they start school, and it is estimated that this could cost the NHS almost £0.5 billion by 2050. We have to act now. Last week, I chaired a meeting of the cross-party group on diabetes and was shocked by the presentation by Diabetes Cymru. There has been an explosion in childhood diabetes, which coincides with the rise in childhood obesity in recent decades. Eighty-four per cent of under-18s living with diabetes are classed as medically obese. We know that type 2 diabetes in children and young adults is a more aggressive form of this condition. If it is left untreated, type 2 diabetes can lead to permanent damage in the body due to the build-up of sugar in the blood. Unless we raise awareness of the risk of obesity and diabetes, we will see far too many young people living with the life-limiting, long-term effects of type 2 diabetes. First Minister, with the clear risks to long-term health, how is the Welsh Government raising awareness of type 2 diabetes as part of its childhood obesity strategy? Thank you.

Thanks very much. We're extremely aware of the challenges confronting children who are overweight. We need to make sure that they and their parents are aware of the challenges that will confront them, potentially, throughout their lives, unless it's addressed very early. That includes, obviously, an awareness of type 2 diabetes. The good news is that the levels of healthy weight in children are, thankfully, higher now than they were during the pandemic. So, we're heading in the right direction, but, my goodness, we've got a long way to go. The child measurement programme showed that 73 per cent of our children are at a healthy weight, which suggests that the others are not. So, you'll be aware that we have the 'Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales' delivery plan. That was published last month. It has a laser-like focus on supporting babies, children and young people, and addressing some of the issues that you have relayed to us today.

In Newport, First Minister, I've organised Active Newport events, to try and get a more physically active population, and I intend to continue with that effort. We know there are lots of heroes, volunteers in grass-roots sport, providing really important opportunities for our young people to become more active. We know that schools can do a lot in getting children to walk, cycle and scoot to school, as well as being active within the school curriculum, which is really important. In terms of the earliest years, the Early Years Wales manifesto talks about embedding physical activity at the earlier stages, preschool included, and embedding that activity in legislation that deals with the early years. So, I wonder, First Minister, if you would give a commitment to look at organisations with expertise and experience to offer, to make sure that we really can find these ways to have a more active young population here in Wales.

Thanks very much, John, and thank you for leading by example. I know that you are a fitness fanatic and you have led the way for lots of young people to emulate. But it's not just about exercise; it is about making sure that people eat healthily as well. That's why you've got to start way pre school, and breastfeeding is where you start. We have a breastfeeding action plan, which kicks it off, then we have Healthy Start, which is a programme that is supported by the UK Government. We need to make sure that people maximise their opportunities to access that. We are aware of the heroic efforts of people in our communities. They understand that there is a need to address these issues. I'm really pleased that many of those organisations are engaged in the development of the 'Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales' plan, and they are now engaged in the delivery of that plan. We've now got a plan—let's stick to the plan, let's make sure that it's delivered and make sure that what we see in future is healthy children in our communities who don't face the kind of difficulties, health wise, that they would otherwise face.

Questions now from the party leaders. The leader of the Conservatives, Darren Millar.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, economic figures released today show that the Welsh economy is really struggling. Unemployment is up by a third in Wales since the UK Labour Government was elected back in July 2024. There are 12,000 fewer jobs, and pay packets here are still the lowest in Britain. It's very clear that the national insurance hikes, along with the anti-farming, anti-business agenda and environment across the UK, are now taking their toll. What action are you taking, and is your Government going to take, to boost the Welsh economy?

Thanks very much. Let's just be clear that there are a lot of people suffering today. They are struggling with the cost-of-living crisis, and the way to get out of that is to make sure we can provide them with quality jobs. I am pleased to see that the unemployment rate in Wales was lower in March compared to the UK average, and that we in the Welsh Government have supported 43,000 jobs across Wales this Senedd term. The figures that you quote today, even the ONS have rejected those figures. I think it is important for us to recognise that there are opportunities for us to build a stronger economy, in particular now that we have the local growth fund, with £547 million being injected into the Welsh economy to help us deliver precisely what you're suggesting: quality jobs, training, opportunities, and a means for people to address the cost-of-living crisis that they are struggling with.

There are 12,000 fewer jobs and tens of millions less in investment in our communities than was promised by the previous UK Conservative Government. I notice you didn't mention the housing market in your response there, because one thing that we all know and we understand is that house building is a key economic indicator too. According to your Government's own figures—these are nobody else's, they're your Government's, so you cannot dispute these—in the year to March 2025, just 4,600 new homes were created in Wales. The only time it's been lower than that was during the middle of the COVID pandemic. That number is less than half the number that was built in Wales when the Conservatives were last responsible for housing in Wales back in 1997, when over 10,000 new homes were actually built. The demand for housing and the lack of supply on Labour's watch has led to higher property prices, and the collapse in the housing market has been absolutely catastrophic for people, especially those who aspire to own their own home. Do you accept that those figures are appalling, that successive Welsh Labour Governments have been missing their own housing targets and have left too many people without the realistic chance of having the keys to their very own front door?

Housing is critical when it comes to people being able to feel comfortable, to have a base from which they can participate in communities and societies. But, on top of that, it is a good mechanism for economic growth, and that is why, where we have the absolute control over this, we are very proud of the fact that we have the highest annual delivery rates since 2008. So, we've had 9,000 new social homes. When we're talking about the private sector, since 2021, up to 16,000 private sector homes have been built. But, in fact, the figures are likely to be much higher than that, because of the under-counting by private approved inspectors. So, there are opportunities. We are delivering, in particular where we have the absolute control within our hands. We are very proud, in fact, of the fact that we are really pushing hard to meet those 20,000 new low-carbon social homes by the end of this Senedd term.

You're missing your own targets. The figures speak for themselves; they're published on your website, nobody else's. And it's very clear that only half of the new homes that were being delivered by the Conservative Government, the last time we were responsible for housing, are being delivered by you.

Now, First Minister, today you've published your draft budget as a Welsh Government. You've repeatedly acknowledged, in this Welsh Parliament and elsewhere, that the parliamentary arithmetic means that you've got a real challenge in getting that agreed and through this Senedd, and you've warned about the dire political consequences that could emerge in the event of that budget not being agreed. Now, while we on the Welsh Conservative benches disagree fundamentally with many things that the Welsh Labour Government does, I have written to you this morning, in good faith, to say that while we cannot support a more-of-the-same approach to your spending plans, we are open to having some budget discussions with you, if you are open to discussing some of our key priorities. Will you agree to meet with me in order to discuss these matters?

Well, thanks very much. Look, our intention, as a Labour Government, is to make sure we deliver public services that matter to the people in Wales—we're talking jobs, we're talking making sure that our children can be educated, that the bins are collected, that the health service is active and responding to people's needs. When it comes to public services, I am very much open to a conversation. I am very pleased that you have written to me today. I think this demonstrates grown-up politics. This demonstrates the fact that what we need is to pass a budget. I'm clearly not going to negotiate on the floor of the Senedd. But our door is open, and let's make sure that we do what is right for the people of Wales and not see a situation where our public sector is crashed.

Leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth. 

Thank you, Llywydd. The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 is 10 years old this year. It's an Act that sets seven well-being goals that public bodies have to work towards. Unfortunately, the latest evidence suggests that we are moving far too slow at best, but on many measures that we're moving backwards. This is what the chief statistician of Wales says in the 'Wellbeing of Wales 2025' report:

'4 milestones showed a deterioration and 6 showed little or no change.' 

Now, Labour has had 26 years to make a real impression and to change the lives of the people of Wales for the better, but with this report reflecting so poorly on the social, economic, environmental, cultural and other markers, what measures is the First Minister taking to put that right?

Well, thanks very much. I think we should be very proud of the fact that the well-being of future generations Act is the only Act in the world that has taken the UN sustainability goals and transposed them into law. It is important that we deliver and that we consider every time we make a policy the needs of future generations. Just to give you an example of the kind of thing that I think that the future generations commissioner is concerned with—it's a question that has come up earlier—he is particularly interested in food and what we do in relation to food. And that's why I'm very pleased that we are working on things like the 'Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales' delivery plan and that we do have things like the placement and price promotion approach, which is very different, and that will be coming in soon, and it's responding directly to some of the concerns of the future generations commissioner.

I will quote from the report again, if I may:

'The labour market has weakened with job losses more concentrated in predominantly private sector industries...Welsh economic performance continues to be weaker than the UK as a whole in terms of economic output (gross value added) and household income'.

The Welsh economic picture, I'm afraid, remains one of stagnation, and we have had further figures out today that confirm that. And yes, Wales is still suffering, without doubt, as a consequence of Tory austerity, but we're yet to hear what the First Minister is asking of the UK Prime Minister and the Chancellor from the autumn budget, for example, and how that might help. But whilst the First Minister dithers, I'm afraid, and fails to stand up for the interests of the people of Wales, Plaid Cymru is getting on with the job. It's precisely because we believe in Wales's potential that we want to establish a development agency for Wales focused on creating high-skilled, well-paid jobs, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, attracting investment. Would the First Minister rather see Wales's economy suffer at the whims of the Westminster merry-go-round, or will she support Plaid's ambitions?

No, we're busy governing, not grandstanding, and the fact is that 43,000 jobs have been created across Wales and supported in this Senedd term. What we've seen is a 30 per cent increase in jobs from inward investment, we've seen over 58,000 young people engaged in the young person's guarantee and we've seen labour productivity growth in Wales increase by significantly more than it is in England.

But figures out today show that whatever the First Minister claims is action on behalf of this Government, it isn't working. And back to the report again, it says,

'Economic challenges continue to impact the most disadvantaged groups.'

That's something that's of particular concern. It points to large increases in fuel poverty. It states that

'job losses for low paid roles are apparent. The gap in healthy life expectancy between the most and least deprived areas has widened, and overall healthy life expectancy in Wales is now at its lowest recorded level.'

This is pretty damning stuff on Labour's legacy. Now, I'm clear what I would do: expand Wales's childcare offer to 20 hours for those between nine months and four years of age for 48 weeks of the year, making it the most generous offer in the UK, and would ease pressure on household budgets and ensure, of course, the best start in life for every child. Plaid Cymru's Cynal direct child payment pilot would tackle poverty head on and narrow the gap between the most and least deprived. So, this time, for families and for children, I ask again, what is the First Minister's plan?

Well, those figures you quoted are unreliable, according to the Office for National Statistics. And let me make clear that what's happened this week is that we have had an announcement of £547 million in local growth funds coming to Wales. That will help us to address some of the issues that you're talking about: growing the Welsh economy, tackling regional economic inequality, supporting people into work, helping people to gain skills and qualifications. We've had 22 per cent of the entire UK Government budget for this. And when it comes to childcare, we already spend £150 million on childcare. Thankfully, Jane Dodds helped us out with spending even more in the last budget, a budget that you didn't support. So, there would have been less childcare in Wales if it were up to you when it came to what we could offer this year. We are serious about this, but when we deliver and develop programmes of government, we make sure that they are deliverable, that the skills are in place, the people are in place in order to deliver those. And that's why we have a comprehensive approach to skills development when it comes to childcare.

We've seen real progress. Thanks to our dental reforms, nearly 70,000 new patients in the Swansea Bay University Health Board area have received full treatment since 2022 and another 27,000 have had urgent care in the last year alone. Across Wales, over 445,000 new people have now gained NHS dental access since our reforms began, proof that the Welsh Labour NHS dental reform is working.

I don’t think many of my constituents in South Wales West would share that rosy view of the picture of NHS dentistry in Swansea bay in particular, but across Wales, I suppose, First Minister. Because constituents of mine in Killay, in Swansea, but, frankly, they could be anywhere, have contacted me about their local dental practice going private, turning down the NHS contract, leaving constituents forced between a choice of whether they continue to pay for the care that they received before on the NHS at the same practice, or have to try their chance at getting on to an NHS dentist in the first place. That's made somewhat worse, I would say, by some of the changes that you announced recently, because, quite frankly, people are now having to pay perhaps about £30 a month to have a dental check-up every six months, or, if they can access an NHS dentist, perhaps have one every two years or so. What you've created is a two-tier system in dentistry, based on your ability to pay for it. It sounds like something Reform would come up with, quite frankly, First Minister. Can you look again at the changes that you've made in the NHS dental contract so that it is more attractive to dentists, because too many at the moment are turning it down and forcing their patients to go private?

Thanks very much. Seventy thousand people, as I say, have received dental treatment in your region as a result of our dental reforms. It's a shame you haven't heard from them, but I can assure you that they would be happy with the changes that we've brought in. In fact, in Swansea bay, we've seen the lowest number of contract terminations in Wales, and so it is important for us to recognise there's been a long negotiation with the dental profession. What we're doing is following the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines in terms of how often you need to see your dentist. We are following professional guidance rather than sticking to a system that has always been there, which, frankly, didn't necessarily serve the patient nor, indeed, the dentist.

There is a shortage of NHS dentists in the area. I know that from the number of people contacting me needing an NHS dentist. There's been a loss of European dentists following Brexit, including at the dental practice I use. There is a need to negotiate a contract that works for dentists. Those who want to leave the NHS have gone to private practice a long time ago. We do not want to lose those who want to stay with the NHS. There is growing concern amongst the public who are unsure whether they will be able to stay with their current dentist, and amongst dental professionals who still lack detail of their future contract. Can the First Minister say when the full details of the new contract will be made public, so both patients and the profession can have confidence in the transition and people will know that they can stay with the same dentist?

Thanks very much, Mike. You're absolutely right to point out the impact of Brexit on some in the dental workforce. I too lost my eastern European dentist after Brexit. Now, our new Welsh dental contract, the first major reform in two decades, puts prevention and continuity at its heart, alongside fairer pay for dentists. They will get an increase in their general fee, from £135 an hour to £150 an hour. What we're trying to do is to make sure that the system works for both. Just to reassure you and your constituents, the changes will ensure that patients are able to remain with their dental practice and, as I say, provide a better remuneration offer for dentists.

Every stillbirth or neonatal death is a tragedy that stays with families for life, and as a Government we are determined to do everything we can to prevent that from happening. That's why we've introduced a new quality statement for maternity and neonatal services, setting clear, consistent standards for every health board in Wales. Through our safety support programme, we're improving early warning systems, pre-term birth care and the way clinical reviews are carried out, so that every mother and baby gets the safest possible care.

Thank you for the answer.

Today is the penultimate day of Baby Loss Awareness Week. It's an opportunity to bring together people affected by pregnancy or baby loss as a community. It is good news that the Welsh Government has announced that bilingual baby loss certificates will become available in Wales for babies that have been lost before 24 weeks. As the parents say, we must break the silence. For far too long, baby loss and bereavement has been unspoken in Wales. As part of Baby Loss Awareness Week, a group of bereaved parents from across Wales have today released a petition. They're calling for targets to save babies' lives and for consistent bereavement and mental health care for anyone affected by baby loss. It is great to see the creation of standards of bereavement care in Wales. But what action is the Welsh Government taking to ensure the national bereavement care pathway for Wales is implemented in every healthcare setting, ensuring every bereaved parent can access the care that they need and deserve?

Thanks very much, Julie. We know that every baby loss is an absolute heartbreak for the family, and it's something that never goes away—never goes away. It was heartbreaking to hear of George and Henry in Merthyr today on the radio, and how their mother is still just in absolute pain as a result of that loss.

I'm pleased to see that stillbirth rates in Wales have declined by 17 per cent, so we're heading in the right direction, but, boy, we've got more to do, and we will never stop pushing towards clearer and better outcomes. I'm very pleased that now we have the certificates available if a pregnancy ends before 24 weeks, and that's optional and it's free, and thank you to the Minister for driving that forward. And just so we're clear, when the scheme starts, people will be able to get certificates for past losses as well, just as they have done in England.

Just in relation to the bereavement pathways, we've allocated funding to Sands for the national bereavement pathways. We expect them to be finalised by the end of the year and launched by March 2026. Pathways will support access to counselling, provide memory-making opportunities, information booklets and online resources tailored to different types of loss, and referrals to charities and support organisations for ongoing care. So, all of that is in the process of being delivered.

This week, of course, does mark Baby Loss Awareness Week. This raises awareness of pregnancy and baby loss, providing support to anyone affected by this. Unfortunately, though, we continue to hear the awful stories of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in our health boards: 1,000 preventable baby deaths in Wales, an infant mortality rate of 3.6 deaths per 1,000 births in 2023, and 111 stillbirths and 72 neonatal deaths.

This is one of the most worrying and painful experiences that anybody can face, and I speak from first experience on this, but more so the fact that these 1,000 preventable baby deaths could have been prevented. I acknowledge, Sarah, the work you've done on the baby loss certificates, and that's great, and I'll speak to you quietly about how far back this goes. It's such a lovely gesture. But the fact remains that these deaths going forward must be preventable. When you consider the figures in England, we have a higher stillbirth rate than England. We need to know why. So would you, First Minister, agree with me there needs to be much more action for safe delivery for as many as possible of our baby deliveries in Wales, and also that at the time we need more action and support for those parents who suffer this tragic loss? Diolch.

Well, thanks very much. We've got a quality statement for maternity and neonatal services, and that sets standards for safe, equitable care. Every perinatal death in Wales is now reviewed through the MBRRACE-UK perinatal mortality review tool. What that does is make sure that every lesson is learned, and it leads to safer care in future. I think that is critical. I think that's what parents want to hear. They don't want anybody else to go through what they're going through.

And just on the statistical difference, my understanding is that the volatility due to the small numbers in terms of Wales and England means that it's very difficult to make those comparisons, so I just want to set that out clearly. Look, it's declined by 17 per cent since 2010. We're not resting on our laurels. We've got more to do, and we are doing it.

First Minister, as you know, during the last four years I have lost two nephews, Steffan, at an hour old, and Emrys, at the age of eight days, and I'd like to acknowledge publicly, First Minister, the comfort that you provided to us—your words of comfort to us as a family, which meant a lot to us during that very difficult time. As you said, the tragedy and the feeling of loss does continue, and at every stage in the life of a child you feel that loss again; Steffan should have started primary school this year.

I'd like to pay tribute today to Heather Mackerness, a constituent who has been e-mailing me consistently, who lost a child 38 years ago, back in 1987. She has been battling for acknowledgement for her baby. She was very pleased to receive the answer to my written question to Sarah Murphy last week that there will now be a certificate. She had two questions. Would it be retrospective? I was able to answer that it would be. And the second question she wanted to know was: when? And I wasn't able to obtain that answer from the Minister. The constituent has waited 38 years now. Could you provide any idea to Heather and to a number of other families as to when they can have official recognition for their children? Thank you.

Thank you very much. I know that the loss is unbearably painful not only for the parents but for the wider family too. It touches so many people. So, I am pleased that your constituent will receive the comfort of a certificate to acknowledge that they did have a living child, and that there was a milestone in their life. They need that recognition. And I know that Sarah Murphy is very eager to ensure that this can happen as soon as possible.

Wales has a proud and vibrant hospitality sector. From our pubs to our live music venues, they're at the heart of our communities and our culture. That's why this Welsh Labour Government is backing the sector with £78 million in rates relief this year, and long-term investment through our Transforming Towns programme. We want these places to thrive, but any attempt to override local planning powers would be a serious step backwards for devolution.

Well, I agree with that. I agree that pubs are great places for people to meet and socialise and make new friends, but excessive amounts of alcohol we know have really serious consequences. One study showed that men are seven times more likely to be involved in gender-based violence if they are alcohol- or drug-dependent, and there are obviously clear links with cancer and liver disease, which all raises the demand for NHS services. So, I want to understand how this amnesty on many of these licensing conditions—deemed to be minimal variations—might undermine the desire of residents to ensure that pubs aren't a place that disrupts their sleep and causes crime. How can Wales maintain a public health approach to avoid excessive alcohol consumption?

Thanks very much. I want to start by saying a lot of us like a drink now and again, and it's not a bad thing. Certainly, you're not going to get me suggesting that we curtail the opportunities for people to have a good time, so I think it is important for us to set that out. But I do recognise—and it is important to recognise—that alcohol does have an adverse influence on many aspects of our communities and our lives, in particular when it comes to violence against women and girls. It is, I think, important that we look at Welsh Labour's violence against women national strategy. It makes it clear in there that prevention and tackling substance misuse have to go hand in hand.

Just in relation to this particular piece, the proposed changes to pub opening hours, it is the UK Government who are launching this four-week call for evidence to listen to stakeholders' views, and I would encourage people to participate in that call for evidence. But we will be making sure that it doesn't undermine our powers here in Wales.

First Minister, I share your enthusiasm for enjoying an odd tipple now and then, and I broadly welcome the proposed changes to licensing laws—a positive step forward to help our hospitality sector—but the truth is that much more needs to be done. Because, across Wales, pubs and small hospitality businesses are the heart of our communities, providing jobs, supporting local suppliers and keeping our communities alive. Yet, across the UK, eight pubs are closing every week and over 200 have already shut their doors in the first half of 2025. Rising costs are crippling these businesses—costs made worse by Labour in Westminster through higher employer national insurance contributions, and Labour in Cardiff Bay, with the highest business rates in Great Britain. So, First Minister, what further action will the Welsh Government take to support small independent venues, and do you agree with us, the Welsh Conservatives, that scrapping business rates for small businesses altogether would give our hospitality sector the lifeline it urgently needs? Diolch.

Well, thanks very much, and it'll be interesting to see where you're going to find that money from. If you are happy to engage, let's talk. But let me tell you that, already, we are providing £78 million in rates relief to pubs at the moment. Now, it is difficult to see, if we want to continue with that, where that money is going to come from, but we will be happy to discuss how that might work in future.

But the key thing for me is that we focus on making sure that our town centres are lively places. It was great to be in the centre of Haverfordwest last week, opening the town centre, trying to get people back into our town centres, so that they are places where communities can come together.

Local government really is the backbone of our public services and Welsh Labour is backing councils to deliver for their communities. This year we've provided more than £7.4 billion in funding—that's a 4.5 per cent increase on last year—to help protect jobs and keep vital local services running, from social care to our schools. We also provide £2 million a year to the Welsh Local Government Association to support digital transformation, strong leadership and improvement across every council in Wales.

Along with many of my constituents, I am extremely concerned about a recent report by Audit Wales relating to Wrexham council's conduct. It highlights instances of poor behaviour and fractured relationships at a senior level, which threaten Wrexham council's decision making, their governance and their reputation. The Auditor General for Wales states there are ongoing strained relationships and distrust between some members and senior officers, and, unless addressed urgently and genuinely, this will undermine the positive work of the wider council and its workforce. A report of this nature would be alarming at the best of times, but this is the second review we've had into the values and behaviours in Wrexham since 2023, and the fact the council's not fully addressed previous recommendations made by Audit Wales is worrying, negligent and irresponsible. Serious questions must be asked of the leadership at Wrexham council, with the report stating there is limited awareness of expected roles and responsibility.

First Minister, the people of Wrexham deserve better. I would be grateful for your views on the report and whether you could outline what discussions Welsh Government have had with senior officials at Wrexham council, and how serious does the situation have to get before the Welsh Government is forced to intervene and maybe put Wrexham council into special measures?

Thanks very much, Lesley, and I was very concerned also by the most recent report from Audit Wales, and recognise the need for these findings to be addressed. Now, it's up to Wrexham council to consider their response. I can assure you my officials have held initial discussions, both with the WLGA and Audit Wales, to identify suitable support. I think it's probably worth noting, from a peer panel assessment published in September, that Wrexham council is generally delivering its services. So, you talked about the efforts made by the people who work for the council, and that is clearly paying off in terms of the delivery of services. But the same report focused its recommendations on leadership and member-officer relationships. The threshold to intervene is actually very high. So, the council must be assessed as not meeting the performance requirements, and that's not where we're at. So, despite the uncomfortable findings, I don't think that threshold has been met. But it is important that both members and officers follow their respective codes of conduct, setting out the standards of behaviour expected from them.

The south Wales metro is already transforming how people travel across our region, with modern trains, new services and faster, more frequent connections making a real difference to people's lives.

We've invested over £1 billion to upgrade the core Valleys lines, another £800 million in brand-new trains, and £70 million in the Ebbw Vale line, doubling the service and giving Newport direct trains for the first time since the 1960s. And we're not stopping there. We're rolling out pay-as-you-go ticketing—we've got 1 million passengers who are using that—and delivering £1 bus fares for young people, and we're making public transport simpler, fairer and more affordable.

I'm grateful to the First Minister for that response. It just demonstrates how important devolving responsibility for rail infrastructure is. The First Minister's also aware that the former Deputy Minister for Climate Change, Lee Waters, wrote to me and outlined the plans and the vision for the Ebbw valley line, and in writing to me, he made clear, and I quote, 'that the ambitions for the Ebbw valley line are the same as our ambitions for the core Valleys lines, which are devolved, and where the Welsh Government is able to direct investment'. He said, 'In short, this ambition is for four trains an hour and the completion of the Abertillery spur'.

Will the First Minister this afternoon confirm that this remains the vision and policy of the Welsh Government?

I can confirm that. It is still our ambition; it always has been. When we have ownership, we deliver. The core Valleys lines are proof of that: £1 billion invested; 170 km of track. They're electrified, they're faster, greener trains now running across south Wales. The Ebbw Vale line, £70 million-worth of investment, it's already doubled the services. As I say, we've got those direct connections to Liverpool.

We are ready to go further, including on the Abertillery spur, but as things stand, rail infrastructure outside the core Valleys lines is still in the hands of the UK Government. So, we will encourage, push, cajole and make sure that the UK Government delivers on that spur.

Demand for neurodiversity assessments has surged in all parts of the UK, but here in Wales we're taking action to ensure that families get the help that they need faster. We've already ended all four-year waits for neurodevelopmental assessments for children, and every health board now has a clear plan in place to eliminate three-year waits by March 2026.

In north Wales, we've given Betsi Cadwaladr an extra £2.7 million to deliver around 1,700 additional assessments this year, and they're on track to do just that.

Thank you for that response. I am sure that every Member present here today will have seen an increasing case load in terms of diagnosis and support for children and young people who live with neurodiverse conditions. In my case, I have seen parents coming in to surgeries and coming in to the office in tears because they have 11-year-old children who are self-harming, and some trying to take their own lives, because they have not had the necessary diagnosis and support.

Now, unlike the data that you have just quoted, the data that I have received through an FOI shows that there are over 7,000 children and young people in north Wales waiting for an assessment. With around 40 assessments only done every month in north Wales, that means that it will take around 15 years to get through that waiting list for autism and neurodiversity in north Wales. That's 15 years. Do you think that that is acceptable?

No, and that’s why additional funding was provided to bring those waiting lists down. And may I remind you that you voted against that additional funding to bring those waiting lists down? It is a serious situation, and that's why we have provided that additional funding. We are going to provide 1,700 additional assessments, and we have provided £2.7 million, which is no small sum, to help the situation in Betsi.

Thank you, First Minister.

The next item will be item 2, the business statement and announcement. The Trefnydd will be making the statement. The Trefnydd, Jane Hutt.

Thank you very much, Llywydd. There are no changes to this week's business. Business for the next three weeks is shown on the business statement, which is available to Members electronically.

Trefnydd, on 10 October 2022, Manorbier school in my constituency, unfortunately, caught fire. Thanks to the hard work of the team there, all pupils and staff were safe and, since then, have been having their education, a fantastic education, from the Jameston Community Hall, under the tutelage of the headteacher, Sharon Davies. Now, the council have promised to rebuild that school, yet, earlier this year, they announced a consultation in which they decided that the school should be shut, despite there being a petition of over 12,000. So, I'd be grateful for a written statement from the Welsh Government as to how it's supporting Pembrokeshire County Council following the closure of this school due to the fire, and what work it is doing to ensure that Pembrokeshire County Council stays true to its word in rebuilding that school.

And, secondly, while I've got the time, the investment summit that's due to take place later this year, I'm aware of a number of businesses that are looking to attend, but there's no information on the Welsh Government website or Business Wales on how businesses can go about getting an invitation. Indeed, it seems like it is an invite-only event. I was just wondering, Trefnydd, if you, with your connections within the Cabinet, could release some information as to how businesses could access that investment summit. Diolch.

Diolch yn fawr, Samuel Kurtz. Obviously, it's very regrettable to hear, not only of the fire, which affected the pupils in the school in Pembrokeshire, but obviously there are difficult decisions, clearly, that have to be made by the local authority to ensure that those pupils can move forward. Obviously, they've got temporary arrangements, but I think also what's clear from the Welsh Government is that we have clearly-laid-out funding-support arrangements in terms of our school building programme. So, I'm sure that that’s going to be taken forward, but I will draw this to the attention of the Cabinet Secretary for Education.

Yes, the investment summit, there's a great deal of interest, which I'm sure you will be very pleased and glad to hear about, in our investment summit. I will refer your question to the Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning, just to see, again, whether there will be opportunities and openings for more businesses to attend.

Trefnydd, I would like to ask for an oral statement from the Cabinet Secretary for economy in light of the announcement that we’ve seen in terms of a new local growth fund for Wales. I’m sure, like me, many Senedd Members will have questions as to how this will proceed, in terms of a timetable and so on, and also how much is revenue and how much is capital. So, I think, given that we have so many questions to ask and so much scrutiny to do, that a statement would be appreciated by many of us.

Diolch yn fawr, Heledd Fychan. A written statement is being issued by the First Minister and the Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning. It's very good news that Wales is receiving over £0.5 billion of post-EU structural funding in the new local growth fund, a major investment in our communities and our economy and our future. And it is a landmark moment for Wales, a clear demonstration of commitment to empowering devolved nations and also delivering real change. I think what is important is that it's putting power where it belongs, in the hands of local communities with a Welsh Labour Government that listens, plans and delivers for Wales. But the statement made by the First Minister and the Cabinet Secretary does lay this out, and of course there'll be plenty of opportunity to follow this through in terms of scrutiny and questions to the First Minister and to the Minister.

I'd like to ask for two statements today. Firstly, last Thursday I sponsored an event in the Senedd for the Specialist Unit for Review Evidence, or SURE, which is based at Cardiff University and run out of the University Hospital of Wales in my constituency. The event was to mark 25 years of SURE and to celebrate the important work that's been done by the team, being involved in a huge amount of projects on palliative care, polycystic ovary syndrome and vital work for the Welsh Government in terms of child and adult social care. So, I'd like to ask for a statement on how the Welsh Government is supporting the process of systematic literature reviews to ensure that the information that we as policy makers use is as up to date and reliable as possible.

Secondly, I understand that the Welsh Government has consulted on the Elections and Elected Bodies (Wales) Act 2024's call for guidance to be produced by political parties on diversity and inclusion before the Senedd elections. Could the Trefnydd update us on what political parties have produced in the way of this guidance, and could she make a statement on this? 

Diolch yn fawr, Julie Morgan. Thank you for drawing attention to the event that you attended that was held last week, with the pioneering work by Cardiff University's SURE initiative, which is ongoing, of course. Just to reassure you that as far as Welsh Government is concerned, we have our social research literature and systematic reviews done in line with the Government social research quality assurance process, and training is available to provide social researchers and policy makers with the skills to carry out effective searches themselves. It's crucial that reviews of evidence undertaken or commissioned by Government social researchers are undertaken in line with the Government social research and civil service codes, but it is also important that we look to external expertise and evidence, which you've highlighted today, and we can congratulate them and draw attention to it, as far as Cardiff University is concerned.

Thank you for that question about diversity and inclusion guidance. As many across this Chamber will recall, the Elections and Elected Bodies (Wales) Act 2024 places a duty on the Welsh Ministers to publish diversity and inclusion guidance for political parties. I published this guidance back in March, and that guidance, I think, will help support political parties to publish their diversity and inclusion strategies ahead of the next Senedd election. We're actually leading the way in the UK with this guidance, but it's also pleasing to see that the UK Government is committed to commence section 106 of the Equality Act 2010, which will place a legal requirement on registered political parties to publish anonymised data on the diversity of their Senedd candidates. We've got a head start in terms of that legal requirement that's going to be introduced, in terms of our guidance, but I do hope to see evidence soon that all political parties have taken on board the suggested actions in the diversity and inclusion guidance, as part of their commitment to achieving our shared aim of creating a more diverse Senedd. I hope to see parties' strategies prominently published, so that there's absolute transparency on these matters, and I will be raising this with the Electoral Commission's Senedd political party panel about the guidance. I know they're interested in it as well. I've already met with them to discuss it, and I'm keen to meet with them again in early November to get an update on progress from the panel and from all the parties in Wales.

Trefnydd, can I call for a business statement on the temporary control zone put in place in Monmouthshire following the bluetongue outbreak in the constituency? Many farmers within the zone received no notification about being in the zone and didn’t realise they were until they attempted to take their stock to a livestock market. I myself didn’t know until I received a text from the Animal and Plant Health Agency. So, the temporary control zone for bluetongue means movements of susceptible animals, such as cattle, sheep, goats, et cetera, into—in and out of—and within that zone, can only happen under a movement licence. Now, the zone was declared on Wednesday 1 October, but it took until Friday evening for the first tranche of movement licences to be published, with more to follow this week. The likelihood of bluetongue incursion into Wales—hence a TCZ being in place—this autumn was high, meaning demand for movement licences was easily foreseen. Can I call for a statement from the Deputy First Minister to update the Senedd as to why there has been a delay in publishing these important documents and what preparedness was undertaken?

Thank you very much, Peter Fox. I know that the Deputy First Minister will want to ensure that the farming community is aware of the announcement of the publication of temporary control zones. And with this feedback today, he has already commented upon and engaged fully with the farming unions, and with spokespeople, about arrangements to manage the prevention route in terms of bluetongue for Wales. But I’ll certainly ask him to update on the developments.

I'd like to request a statement from the relevant Cabinet Secretaries, please, firstly, on speeding on trunk roads around Brecon. A few months ago, I attended a village meeting with residents from Libanus and Llanspyddid, who raised serious concerns about speeding, road safety and the impact of traffic on their communities. I passed these concerns to the Welsh Government—they were also in attendance at those meetings—back in August, but still I’m waiting for a response. So, I’d welcome a statement, please, outlining what the Welsh Government is doing to address these concerns and what steps are being taken.

Also, I’d like to ask for a statement in relation to the preventative health value of sport. So, last week, I played tennis and padel tennis at the Wrexham Tennis and Padel Centre. That was quite a new experience. It was organised by Sport Wales. I joined an adult class, and saw first-hand how important community sport is, both to physical health and also to mental health. So, I’d like to ask the Welsh Government how you are going to promote sport as a preventative health measure. Diolch yn fawr iawn.

Thank you very much, Jane Dodds, for your important questions. 

Thank you for raising this issue about speeding on roads. I think many across the Chamber could also reflect on the concerns residents have in terms of speeding on roads, particularly in more rural areas around towns. So, previous speed reviews concluded that speed limits should remain at 50 mph, but the current guidance on setting speed limits in Wales is being updated to reflect changes made for the 20 mph introduction. And when this new guidance on speed limits is published, it’s reviewed across Wales, including this section of the A40 and A470. And I can say that does actually include a review at Libanus and Llanspyddid. So, we need to make sure that that information gets back to local residents.

And I’m sure that we would all want to congratulate you on your tennis playing activities, and I encourage us to do the same. Of course, it’s one of our programme for government commitments to promote equal access to sport, supporting young and talented athletes, as well as those where we want to see that sport is of vital importance to the economy, national life and to health and well-being. And I think this is something for the Minister for Culture, Skills and Social Partnership, who is in the Chamber with us today, linking up with the Minister for Mental Health and Well-being. Working with Sport Wales, I know you had a meeting recently—a round-table—where you particularly looked at, for example, a project addressing mental health, particularly for men. And I think this is important as well, in terms of those needs. Strengthening ill-health prevention is one of the eight Marmot principles, and now, as we strive and move to be a Marmot nation, sport and physical activity are components in our preventative approach, because being a Marmot nation adds another tool to our toolkit in reinforcing the importance of prevention and delivering better health and well-being for all.

I'm seeking a statement from the Cabinet Secretary with responsibility for housing regarding access to housing for my constituents in the Vale of Clwyd. I am regularly contacted by young people in particular, who are becoming increasingly frustrated with the lack of housing in the local area due to those houses on a lot of occasions being accessible to people from outside the area. That's not to be negative in a direct sense, but more to highlight the issue that local constituents in my area can't access social housing or, indeed, start their first rung on the property ladder due to this issue. So, I'm seeking a statement as to what discussions you have within Cabinet, as a Government, regarding this issue and what guidance and conversations are had with local authorities to ensure that people can reside in their local areas and be proud that they can get a foot on the ladder or find a social house in the place that they call home, and not being readily available to people from outside the area. As I say, that's not a direct case of negativity; it's more to highlight that people should be able to prosper and, indeed, live and raise a family in the place that they call home.

Thank you very much, Gareth Davies. I'm not absolutely sure what you're inferring in your question, but I hope what you're inferring is that it's important that—. Recognising our commitment to the expansion of social housing in Wales, it is clearly that expansion, that investment in social housing, that provides a real opportunity for local people to access social housing. Of course, every local authority has their route into accessing social housing. Sometimes, of course, in terms of the opportunities to access social housing, where there's a housing need in that area, it might include people who are in housing need, who are in temporary accommodation and then can apply for all the routes. Of course, there is the other route to accessing private housing, and the first step in the ladder for many is supported by our very generous Help to Buy arrangements in Wales.

Minister, can I please request a statement from the Welsh Government about support for those with dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy, or DRPLA, in South Wales East? I do apologise for my terrible pronunciation. DRPLA is a rare inherited neurological condition that causes severe symptoms in both children and adults, from epilepsy and learning difficulties to dementia and complete dependency. My constituent, Zoe Hoes, has shared the heartbreaking story of her adopted daughter, Gabriella, who is aged eight, who has been diagnosed with DRPLA. Despite a confirmed diagnosis, Gabriella has faced unacceptable delays in accessing specialist care. An urgent referral was declined. A private assessment has, indeed, been limited. Access to a promising drug trial in the US hinges on a UK neurologist's assessment, forcing the family to consider relocation. Zoe's research, supported by clinical evidence, shows DRPLA is significantly more prevalent in south-east Wales than previously recognised. This raises some serious questions about awareness, diagnosis and care co-ordination for rare diseases in Wales. I would welcome a statement from the Cabinet Secretary for health, outlining how the Government is working to improve genetic testing, raise awareness, strengthen care pathways and support families emotionally and financially. No family in Wales should face rare disease alone. It's important for us to act now to ensure that timely, equitable and compassionate care is there for all. Thank you so much.

Thank you very much, Natasha Asghar. Thank you for drawing attention to DRPLA. I'm sure many of us are not aware of that, but it's important that you've raised awareness today. This is, I think, very relevant to the rare disease action plan priorities, which the Welsh Government is working closely with the NHS on. It includes raising awareness—as you are today—and improving the availability of information and resources. The UK rare diseases framework and the national action plans that support it come to an end in 2026. So, officials from across the four nations are considering the future of UK-wide rare disease policy collaboration, which is really important in terms of addressing these needs. In fact, an inaugural Welsh rare diseases research network event took place last month at Swansea University, and that is an important step, which is to be shared with the Senedd today, because it strengthens Wales's approach, as well as the four-nation approach, to rare disease research.

I would like to ask for two statements. The first is on dog welfare. Whilst I welcome the legislation already passed, as well as the commitment to ban greyhound racing, there is more to be done. The statement should include proposals to strengthen dog breeding licensing conditions, in order to ensure comprehensive protection for male and female dogs and their offspring by introducing robust standards, and also proposals to regulate sanctuaries, rescue and rehoming centres, to protect animals from substandard levels of care and rogue operators.

The second statement I would like is one on improving horse welfare, including regulating livery yards, which are home to many horses in Wales. It needs also to address horse tethering. The incidents that I have had reported to me have reduced, but there is still a problem with horse tethering, and a proposal to eliminate it would be most welcome.

Diolch yn fawr, Mike Hedges. Thank you for so regularly bringing forward questions and contributing to debates and supporting regulations on animal welfare. We do pride ourselves on having excellent animal welfare standards. We expect everyone to reflect this by being responsible owners and breeders. That includes significant measures to safeguard the welfare of dogs in Wales, particularly looking at responsible dog breeding. We've had the responsible dog breeding and ownership summit, showing how, if we work together with a multi-agency stakeholder partner approach, it can make a real difference. But, it is about public education, responsible puppy purchasing, training and behaviour support. I'm glad that the Deputy First Minister has announced the Government's response and next steps to the consultation on licensing animal welfare establishments, activities and exhibits. That's a real milestone to improve animal welfare standards across Wales.

Of course, this extends to horses as well. The Animal Welfare Act 2006 places a legal duty on horse owners to meet welfare needs, including shelter, diet, healthcare and behavioural freedom. We have a code of practice for the welfare of equines set out, which has information about standards for care and is enforceable by local authorities. We also need to see that this is how we can prioritise the regulation of animal welfare establishments. Livery yards may be considered for future regulation. Racehorses, finally, are protected under the Animal Welfare Act 2006 as well. We do have reforms being introduced by the British Horseracing Authority.

Finally, Janet Finch-Saunders.

Diolch. I'd like to endorse that. I'd also like to request a statement on the animal welfare issues that my colleague Mike Hedges has raised, in particular with regard to horse tethering.

My second statement request is in relation to the Menai bridge and the current works that are still having to go on now, after three years. I've tried to raise two urgent questions here, one topical, and up to now we haven't had an update. I'm sure any Cabinet Member in the Welsh Government could come forward. Further defects have been found. This is after three years of repairs that have seen businesses badly affected, lots of congestion, gridlock and everything. It's an absolute disaster for Ynys Môn, but also it affects people in my constituency who travel there and back for work. It's gone down to one way, and everybody is in uproar about it. We really do need a Cabinet Minister or the First Minister to come forward with a statement as to what happens next and what they are going to do to support. I would hope also, in that statement, there will be mention of compensation for those businesses, some of which were down 90 per cent in their takings. Thank you.

Thank you, Janet Finch-Saunders. And of course I thank you for following on from Mike Hedges on concerns about animal welfare, and I've mentioned the fact the Deputy First Minister has announced the Government's response—our next step to consultation on licensing animal welfare establishments, and, of course, tethering, I'm sure, will come into that.

On your second question, we are pressing UK Highways A55 for an early resolution to the issue regarding the Menai suspension bridge. A recent safety inspection revealed that several bolts—and I wanted an opportunity to address this and answer your question—supporting the structure beams must be replaced. And it is a 200-year-old grade I, as you know, listed bridge, and it connects Anglesey to the mainland and unexpectedly closed on 4 October. I think, really, we have to recognise that there have been serious safety concerns, identified back in 2022, and they led again to a sudden closure of the bridge at that time, and it does cause significant disruption.

But I think on 7 October, last week, we did announce, as a Welsh Government, that we were actively working with UK Highways and North Wales Police to partially reopen Menai suspension bridge to cars, motorcyclists, cyclists and pedestrians in the coming days; 07:00 until 19:00 it was expected to operate—the partial reopening. Clearly, this is a matter, in terms of our engagement with it, for the Cabinet Secretary for Transport and North Wales. And I know, as you know, he has engaged, although he isn't able to at this present time, but I will ask the Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning to update you directly.

Thank you, Trefnydd. 

The next item, therefore, will be the debate on a statement: the outline draft budget for 2026-27. I call on the Cabinet Secretary for finance to make the statement—Mark Drakeford.

Diolch yn fawr, Llywydd. Today I lay the 2026-27 outline draft budget, the first step towards the final budget of this Senedd term. This is the tenth consecutive year in which I will have been directly involved in the challenging business of making the Welsh budget, but my starting point, Llywydd, is the same as yours: the weeks ahead must culminate in the passing of a budget. This draft is simply the start of that process. Every Member here will have a part to play, every political party a responsibility. Because, Llywydd, the budget is not simply a ledger of numbers, of billions of pounds spread carefully between different columns and expenditure lines. These are people’s pay packets, they are the accounts of local businesses, the free school meals and teaching materials in our schools, the new trains on our railways and homes in our communities. They are the thousands of childcare placements that look after our children, the new roof on the art gallery, the prescriptions taken every day and the new life-saving medicines offering fresh hope. In setting out the outline draft budget, I will, as usual, concentrate on its big building blocks, explaining the decisions that lead to the funding available for the next financial year, and then setting out its high-level departmental spending allocations.

To begin, then, with the income side of the ledger. After more than a decade of sustained austerity, the new UK Government announced our revenue and capital budgets in June for the next three and four years respectively. An extra £5 billion comes to Wales over that spending review period, £1 billion more in 2026-27, an additional £1.6 billion in the following year and £2.4 billion in 2028-29. And all of this, of course, over and above the additional £1.6 billion, which is reflected in the current year's budget and which provides a new, elevated platform for next year.

Now, Llywydd, I very much wish that I could take advantage of the new three and four-year horizon provided by the Chancellor, but in the final months of this Senedd term, I do not believe that setting spending plans deep into the next four years would provide real certainty. Instead, we will grasp the opportunity of the long-term horizon through the work of the Welsh spending review.

In total, there is £27.6 billion of funding available to Wales for the next financial year, and this outline draft budget allocates 98.6 per cent of it. Of that £27.6 billion, £21.9 billion comes from the UK Government’s block grant, with £18.3 billion of that block grant providing for day-to-day or revenue spending and £3.6 billion for investment, or capital. That means that around 20 per cent, or £5.5 billion, of the revenue available to this Senedd is raised through devolved taxation. As I explained last year, Llywydd, fiscal devolution is now nearly a decade old, and it has been a conspicuous success in Wales. The budget in front of Members has nearly £500 million more in it for investment in our public services next year than would have been the case had we not had tax devolution. But, Llywydd, it’s not simply a matter of having tax devolution, it’s how it’s used. None of that £500 million is accidental, it reflects decisions made here in the Senedd.

Llywydd, I will now set out the draft budget proposals in relation to each of our three devolved taxes. Welsh rates of income tax are expected to raise £3.9 billion in 2026-27. I intend to leave those rates unchanged. The vast bulk of income tax payers in Wales have incomes that qualify for the standard rate only. I do not intend to add to the challenges they face at a time when the impact of rises in the cost of living remain very real. As usual, a separate vote will be held here on this proposal. Were the Senedd not to approve the proposed Welsh rates of income tax, then expenditure would have to be reduced by the nearly £4 billion we raise in that way.

Now, land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax are fully devolved to Wales. The LTT is forecast to raise £401 million in 2026-27. The threshold at which LTT becomes payable in Wales is £225,000, above the current average cost of a property in Wales, which is £217,000, and well above the average for first-time buyers of £188,000. Some six out of 10 transactions for a main home in Wales pay no tax at all. I intend to continue with the progressive pattern we have established since taking responsibility for this tax. In this draft budget, the rates remain the same. Those who need help the most get it in full, those who can afford to pay do so.

I have one change to announce today in relation to the multiple dwelling relief regime. I intend to introduce a new equalisation rule, which will improve fairness for taxpayers who purchase more than one dwelling in the same transaction, or in linked transactions. I will also introduce a new refund of the higher residential rates of LTT, where a taxpayer buys a dwelling and then leases it to a local authority through the Leasing Scheme Wales. We'll keep the new refund rule under review, of course, to make sure that it is delivering the intended outcome of securing more affordable homes for rent.

Turning to landfill disposals tax, Llywydd, it's designed, as you know, to influence behaviour as much, if not more, than raising revenue. It is forecast to raise £34 million in the next financial year. I intend to increase the standard rate of LDT for that year by forecast retail price index, and to maintain the lower rate on the unauthorised disposals rate at 5 per cent and 150 per cent of the standard rate respectively. Monetary value of these rates will be confirmed based on the updated forecast to be published alongside the UK autumn budget on 26 November.

This budget also provides an extra £285,000 for the Welsh Revenue Authority to support increased investigation activity in response to unauthorised disposals. This funding will result in additional LDT revenues of £715,000 in 2026-27, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts.

Following its consultation on the reform of landfill tax in England, the UK Government may amend its own approach to this area of taxation. Should it be necessary, I will not hesitate to protect our own system in Wales against waste unnecessarily crossing the border, and to ensure our tax continues to contribute to our environmental and circular economy goals. Should it be necessary, Llywydd, to deal with changes in either LTT or LDT, then I will of course present proposals for Senedd approval.

Finally in relation to landfill disposals tax, Members will recall that last year the lower rate was raised to 5 per cent of the standard rate and I said I would increase that to 10 per cent if the desired behavioural response was not forthcoming. At this point in the budget cycle, only a single quarter of data has become available since the change was made. I do not believe that this is sufficient to make a reliable judgment, and I will therefore not intend to make additional changes at this time. That will be a decision, however, for future finance Ministers to consider.

Turning to non-domestic rates, the draft budget reflects the expectation that revenues will be maintained in real terms. This draft budget does not include further funding to extend the retail, leisure and hospitality rates relief scheme. The Chancellor announced her intention to bring this temporary scheme to an end in England from April of next year, and the consequential funding that has supported the scheme in Wales will therefore also end at that point. Nevertheless, as a Government, we recognise the unique challenges faced by bricks-and-mortar retail shops in the face of competition from online retailers. I continue to plan to introduce a lower multiplier, which will reduce non-domestic rates bills for properties occupied by small to medium-sized retailers. Details of the scheme will follow the UK Government's budget on 26 November, and will of course be included in our final budget on 27 January next year. Llywydd, as ever, the draft budget itself is accompanied by a set of supporting documents. The Welsh tax policy report, for example, provides additional details about, and the wider context for, the decisions I have just set out.

Llywydd, I turn now to how the draft budget uses the funding available to us. The proposals before the Senedd continue the record of successive Welsh Labour Governments in sustaining the public services on which so many of our fellow citizens rely. A significant proportion of that investment comes, as I said earlier, as a result of the £1.6 billion made available to Wales in the first year of a new UK Labour Government. It is that funding that has allowed me to provide additional funding to departments in the current financial year, such as £220 million to support public sector employers with increased national insurance contributions, and the £137 million that has been provided in-year to support public sector pay uplifts. Today's budget confirms that these sums will be baselined and they appear in the figures that have been published.

I have also decided to baseline into next year’s budget a number of the investments that were agreed with Jane Dodds, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, as part of this year’s budget. Thus the figures contained in the draft budget continue into 2026-27 the £30 million for social care and the £30 million for childcare that were at the heart of that agreement. I make provision also for a second year of funding for the restored service on the Heart of Wales line, the completion of the pilot £1 bus travel for young people, and the revenue needed to support £120 million of local authority borrowing for improvements to local roads and pavements.

Llywydd, the Senedd will rightly expect that budgets make provision for decisions made in this Senedd. The British Sign Language Bill is an important Member-led Bill that has broad support. Although this is not a Government measure, I have ensured that provision is made in this draft budget to enable the aims of that Bill to be enacted, using the figures set out in Mr Isherwood’s own regulatory impact assessment.

At this stage, and as explained in my statement to the Senedd on 1 July, all departmental budgets are being uplifted to reflect the Office for Budget Responsibility’s March 2025 forecast for inflation in 2026-27. This includes the forecast for the gross domestic produce deflator, which is expected to be 1.7 per cent, consumer price index inflation at 1.9 per cent and wage growth at 2.2 per cent. Taken together, this means that non-pay budgets will increase by around 2 per cent, with a 2.2 per cent uplift for the public sector pay elements of departmental budgets. These OBR forecasts will be updated in November, and our final budget will consider the impact of any changes to them.

Llywydd, I want to emphasise to Members that this draft budget is the starting point of the budget process, not the end of it. While it deploys the vast majority of funding available to the Welsh Government—98.6 per cent of it—it ought to be our shared intention to use all the funds available to us in making the budget for 2026-27 for the benefit of Welsh citizens. The 1.4 per cent unallocated amounts to some £380 million, made up of a combination of revenue and capital. There is a more ambitious budget, therefore, that could be agreed in January, but that, of course, requires the participation of other political parties. The case for doing so seems to me to be clear, given the challenges facing our public services even with a real-terms uplift to budgets.

In that context, Llywydd, I am particularly mindful of the unique position faced by our local authorities given the legal parameters within which they must set their own budgets. It places an obligation on us all to help maximise councils’ spending power as we work towards that final budget. Already, as part of the draft budget, I have agreed that local authorities will retain all the growth expected next year in non-domestic rates. That by itself means an average growth of 2.5 per cent in local authority funding through the settlement. In addition, I have decided to continue into next year a funding floor, as agreed with the Liberal Democrat Member in the current year, with the aim of ensuring that no council receives less than a 2.3 per cent uplift at this stage of the budget process.

Llywydd, our budget process is different this year than in recent years. I'm pleased we can return to the usual arrangement of publishing a two-stage budget, as set out in our budget protocol. This provides the Senedd, and, in particular, the Finance Committee, with the maximum possible time to scrutinise the decisions set out in it.

This afternoon, the big building blocks of the budget have been set out. It now turns to each Cabinet Secretary to decide how best to deploy these resources, and those detailed spending decisions will be published on 3 November.

Llywydd, finally, I would like to emphasise again today what I said in my statement on 1 July. We must work together to secure a final budget that can be passed by this Senedd. It is our responsibility—our shared responsibility—as elected Members to secure the best possible budget for public services in Wales. To that end, I urge all Members to engage in discussions over the coming weeks so that this draft budget can lead to a full and final set of proposals that can be passed by the Senedd in January. To that end, I look forward to hearing from Members today. Diolch yn fawr.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary, for your statement here this afternoon, and also for taking time, with your officials, to brief me this morning and, of course, for advance sight of today's contribution as well.

I'll start, Llywydd, with where the Cabinet Secretary ended. The Cabinet Secretary has outlined the risks of this budget that we have in front of us today, and, as we've heard, if the budget isn't supported, then public services could be under threat. Of course, no-one wants to see a situation where people can't access the services they need, and that's why I'm pleased, as Darren Millar outlined earlier in FMQs, that the Conservatives, in good faith, have written to the First Minister today to offer an opportunity to discuss this budget further, and I'm pleased with the First Minister's initial response. The Welsh Conservatives are a responsible opposition, and whilst we disagree fundamentally with this Welsh Labour Government on many issues, including spending priorities, we recognise that engaging with you on this budget is the responsible thing to do, because we too also want to avoid unnecessary pain in the services that people in Wales rely on.

What we've heard today feels very familiar, though, to the statement we had in July from the Cabinet Secretary, when the Government outlined its spending priorities for 2026-27. That statement, like today's, spoke of maintaining departmental baselines, adjusting for inflation and leaving those major decisions for a future Government in this place to deal with. Of course, I recognise some of the smaller adjustments that the Cabinet Secretary outlined today, in particular in relation to LTT, and I'll certainly be keen to see what difference those adjustments make.

Broadly, the Cabinet Secretary has indicated that he's bringing forward a 'business as usual' budget, which will adjust with inflation. We are clear, though, that business as usual cannot continue. Our front-line public services are under strain, our economy is stagnant and communities feel neglected, with Wales's employment rates falling and a low economic activity rate compounded by the UK Government's national insurance increase for employers, impacting nearly a million businesses across the UK. Those small businesses are under immense pressure. With the UK autumn statement still pending, this budget is a pivotal opportunity to provide people and businesses across Wales with clarity to plan for the future. And in planning for this future, we, of course, have different philosophies. One of the recurring criticisms that the Welsh Government too often has is that it regards itself as simply the provider of services rather than an enabler: a facilitator of entrepreneurship, innovation and economic growth. It should be a Government trusting the people and businesses to do what they do best: provide jobs and support our economy. A Welsh Conservative vision would rebalance this. Government and its budget should unlock opportunity and create the right environment for economic growth, not just allocate resources across budget lines.

So, let me set out what we would consider instead, what a bold, growth-orientated Welsh Conservative approach could look like. We know that abolishing land transaction tax for primary residences removes barriers for home buyers and injects more activity into the housing market, encourages more people to own their own homes and helps enable first-time buyers to call a place their own. We know that cutting the basic rate of income tax by 1p, putting cash back into people's pockets, supports working people and helps stimulate our economy. We're a party who trusts people with their own money to make the right decisions for them and their family. We know that scrapping business rates for small businesses allows entrepreneurs, high-street shops and community businesses to grow without being throttled by burdensome tax costs. And we know that axing the tourism tax before it comes into force would protect the rural and coastal communities that rely on this important business.

In health and public services, we would declare a health emergency, commit to reducing waiting times, introduce a seven-day GP guarantee and establish an NHS leadership register so failed managers can't just be rehired elsewhere. A healthy NHS will get more people back into work and reduce the worryingly high number of economically inactive people we have here in Wales. [Interruption.] I'll give way to the Member.

Thank you very much. And those are perfectly legitimate proposals: to reduce income tax, to scrap stamp duty and scrap business rates. It is a fixed budget, so, if we do that, there is a cost. You either cut or you raise money. So, what's the cost estimate that the Conservatives put on reducing those taxes, and where would that funding come from?

It's a fair intervention, and we'll certainly lay out all the detail for you ahead of the elections in May. But we've already heard—[Interruption.] We've already heard—[Interruption.] We've already heard—[Interruption.] We've already heard from the Cabinet Secretary—[Interruption.] We've already heard from the Cabinet Secretary that there's £380 million of unallocated funds at the moment. We're already aware of the levels of waste in the Welsh Government that you, Lee Waters, will certainly be fundamentally aware of, and we'll make sure that we have a balanced budget, absolutely.

We also want Welsh Government to call on a UK Labour Government to drop the increase to employers' national insurance contributions and to reverse inheritance tax changes, both of which adversely impact Welsh family firms and Welsh family farms. These aren't vague asks. Lee Waters will be pleased to hear they're fully costed, concrete choices rooted in a different philosophy: supporting growth, reducing burdens, empowering local economies and communities, ensuring Government is lean but effective. Contrast that with today's outline: no new major spending commitments, no clear transformative agenda, a continuation of what has come before. Meanwhile, the economic backdrop is worsening.

Llywydd, people in Wales can't afford for things to just stand still, not when public services are under pressure and families are struggling to get by. Welsh Conservatives will continue to press for a budget that is bold, enabling, growth-orientated and rooted in delivering power, opportunity and choice back to people and their communities. The people of Wales deserve more. They deserve a vision, a plan and a Government that believes in them. Diolch yn fawr iawn.

Thank you to the Cabinet Secretary for the statement, and I'd also like to thank you for the briefing with officials and yourself earlier today, and I appreciated having advance sight of the statement. The documents are comprehensive. I can't say that I've got through them all as of yet, but I am working my way through them. Rather than going for what we saw just now, a party political broadcast from the Conservatives, I am going to ensure that I respond to what we have before us today, namely this draft budget. 

Of course, we as a party do understand the importance of passing the budget. As the Cabinet Secretary outlined, there would be a real impact on the people of Wales and our public services. That is entirely apparent. Clearly, in the foreword, unlike like what you've read today, you do mention that it's the Government's responsibility to ensure that a budget is passed. And the fact that there is no full budget as of yet being brought forward—surely you must recognise that that does create instability and concern, particularly, as you mentioned, in relation to local government. Even passing this budget as it is will create huge problems. We've heard local government telling us about increases that would be required in terms of council tax of 20 per cent, and thousands of jobs lost. I don't think anyone here wants to see that happening, so it is certainly something that we all need to discuss, and understand the significance of what this budget, as it has been introduced today, will mean.

You mentioned what you've done in terms of national insurance. Clearly, this has been an issue that we've discussed many times over recent months. I would like to know from the Cabinet Secretary, in your response to this debate, what further discussions have taken place with the Labour Government in Westminster on this issue. It does take a substantial part of our budget now. This means a real-terms cut to the Welsh Government budget imposed by Westminster. So, how will we proceed with this? Because I acknowledge that you did include this in the draft budget, and I understand why this is necessary and the implications of not doing this—we’ve certainly heard strong evidence on this in all scrutiny committees over the past 12 months—but I want to know how we can have that assurance. And what assurance can we get that the next budget from the Labour Government in Westminster will not also create more gaps for us?

So, what I would also like to know—. Clearly, Scotland has decided to wait and see in terms of their budget, in terms of what will come out of the autumn budget, which is more of a winter budget as a result of the Westminster Government's timetable. What will you do, therefore, in terms of allowing that flexibility to respond to what will be in that budget, and what do you hope to see in that budget, so that we can look at your aspirations in terms of public services?

I do welcome your cross-party commitment in terms of the British Sign Language (Wales) Bill. I do think that this is something that we should all welcome. Many of us on a cross-party basis see the value and importance of this, and I think, given the way in which you are proceeding with this budget to secure consensus, that that is something to be welcomed.

Will you take an intervention? Over the weekend, I heard about proposals coming forward, such as the roll-out of childcare and funding for teacher retention. Like you, I am worried about public services as well, but without putting that uplift into public services, which you haven’t mentioned—you’ve mentioned these other things—how can we protect public services? 

Are you asking for a future Plaid Cymru Government that you would like to know how we would pay for those? Is that what you’re asking? 

No, I am asking because you are basing those proposals on putting forward a roll-over budget, basically, with a 2 per cent uplift. None of those proposals can be carried out without actually investing in public services first, and having the building blocks there in place.

And we will be looking with fair funding at a whole range of other issues, and we will have a fully costed manifesto. But we’re debating today the manifesto in front of us now. As I said, I am not taking the opportunity to be a party political broadcast. I am engaging with the budget before her now, and I hope that has been clear. This is not for political point scoring.

So, as the negotiations proceed, I look forward to playing a full part in the scrutiny process. We would be more than happy, of course, to be involved in that through committees and directly, to see how we can secure our public services. The warnings have been clear, so there is a requirement on us to be mature in our approach to this debate in the coming months. I look forward to hearing more comments during this afternoon's debate, and of course over the coming weeks and months.

As you outlined, Cabinet Secretary, during your statement, it’s vital that Welsh Government is able to secure a final budget to ensure our public services receive the funding needed to provide front-line services for our constituents, and also to safeguard jobs.

In my contribution I want to focus on a devolved tax, the landfill disposals tax, which again you referred to in your original statement. I am aware the UK Government set out ambitious proposals to reform its landfill tax in April. Those proposals included moving from the current system of two rates to a single rate by 2030, and removing other discounts too. You talked about how, depending on the outcome of those proposals in England, you would protect our LDT, and also you would protect Wales against waste tourism. So, I would like to ask you to clarify what assessments you’ve made of those proposals and what steps you are taking to ensure that, if these proposals lead to change, it will not lead to waste tourism. You will appreciate that I represent a border constituency, and right along that north-east Wales corridor we have real concerns about waste tourism.

You also mentioned the changes that Welsh Government brought forward last year around the rules for LDT, making the lower rate a fixed percentage of the higher rate. And because there was only, I think you said, 25 per cent of data available, you wouldn't be making any further decision at the moment. But I wonder if you could also clarify in an update in relation to that. Diolch.

I begin by welcoming the confirmation that provision will be made for my Member-led British Sign Language (Wales) Bill.

However, referring to other matters, I have to say that last year's budget was littered with false economies. Our charities and community organisations work with individuals and families from the ground up, delivering key services that improve lives but also reduce demand on statutory services. However, despite this finance Secretary's stated public support for prudent health and care services—with service professionals, service users and their communities working side-by-side to deliver solutions, and for inclusion, prevention and early intervention—he starved charitable and community service providers of resources, thereby generating far higher cost pressures for statutory service providers.

During the 2025-26 draft budget debate, I highlighted the sector's struggles, driven by rising costs and the UK Labour Government's national insurance hike. As predicted, the situation has deteriorated since for charities and third sector providers, including our charitable hospices, with the Welsh Government's failure to support them worsening pressures on statutory services. Although the Welsh Government funds approximately 32 per cent of adult hospice expenditure, there's significant variation in funding levels, and, overall, adult and children's hospices in Wales receive less Government funding as a proportion of expenditure than in England and Scotland.

St David's Hospice has been forced to close four beds in Holyhead, Shalom House Hospice in Pembrokeshire has announced its closure at the end of this month, and several other hospices are considering closures. This finance Secretary ignored the deficit budgets for 2025-26 forecast by our hospices, and this must be addressed in the 2026-27 budget. Hospice care is not a luxury; it is a necessity.

Warnings by Tenovus Cancer Care were also ignored. Although they took action to protect vital services in 2025-26 by using reserves to support a deficit budget, this came at a cost: two charity shops closed, redundancies and the loss of valued volunteers. Looking ahead, Tenovus faces another planning cycle under growing financial pressure. Charities like Tenovus play a crucial role in supporting people in Wales with cancer diagnoses, but further help is urgently needed. They and the wider sector remain challenged with uncertainty around budget announcements, and no sign of additional support for charities that complement NHS and local government work.

Mental health and addiction charity, Adferiad, has received limited funding support in response to rising costs. Only the housing support grant fully recognised the impact of national insurance increases. As a result, Adferiad has had to reduce services, re-tender contracts with fewer hours, and replace vacant posts with reduced-hour roles.

Cerebral Palsy Cymru supports children and families across Wales, but funding cuts have severely impacted their work, most notably a 70 per cent reduction to its world-leading early intervention programme. With over 6,000 people in Wales living with cerebral palsy and a baby born every five days with the condition, the charity is now, for the first time in 32 years, turning away babies who need its life-changing support. As they said, this will increase health inequality, pressure on statutory services and raise long-term NHS and social care costs. They urge all political parties to commit £300,000 annually to ensure every child can access early intervention.

In June, I met with the chief executive of Anheddau Cyf, a not-for-profit charity providing essential 24-hour supported living for 140 adults with learning disabilities across north Wales, including commissioned services for five north Wales local authorities. Today, it is fighting for its very survival due to soaring costs. A petition calling on the Welsh Government to intervene and save Anheddau has now received the backing of over 1,000 people. For more than 35 years, they've supported people living with autism, learning disabilities, mental health conditions and complex needs, but they're facing a £400,000 shortfall, placing 400 jobs at risk, and with them the community of care for some of the most vulnerable people in our communities. 

The Older People's Commissioner for Wales is also urging greater focus on prevention in the Welsh Government's draft budget. As the commissioner says:

'By supporting healthy ageing, demand for some services can be reduced or delayed, avoiding the need for more costly interventions later. Investing in prevention is not only cost-effective—it also improves quality of life for older people.'

The 2026-27 budget must therefore spend better, investing wisely to allow third sector service providers to reduce the cost pressures on statutory services by keeping people, wherever possible, out of statutory services. And the solution is by investing smaller sums in these key services to ensure that higher costs are not then imposed upon a statutory service through false economy. Diolch yn fawr.

The budget is a major decision made by the Senedd. Failure to pass the budget has catastrophic consequences, not for the Welsh Government, but for those employed in Welsh Government-funded public services and for the people of Wales. The Senedd's agreement to the annual budget motion authorises the Welsh Government and bodies directly funded by the Welsh consolidated fund to spend resources, as specified in the motion, during the fiscal year associated with the budget. It also sets the limits of income that may be retained by the Welsh Government and directly funded bodies, and the amount of cash each body can draw from the Welsh consolidated fund. [Interruption.] Can I just finish the next bit, and then certainly?

What happens if a budget motion is not passed before 1 April of the upcoming fiscal year is that section 127 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 automatically takes effect. Yes.

Just looking at the numbers and a recent defection, what do you think is going to happen in terms of—? Do you believe the budget's going to be supported? [Interruption.] [Laughter.]

Do I believe the budget will be supported? I hope so, because it has catastrophic effects if it doesn't, including for Members who will not be getting their full salaries.

This would give the Welsh Government and directly funded bodies authority to spend resources, retain income, and draw cash from the Welsh consolidated fund up to 75 per cent of the limits approved in the previous fiscal year. If a budget motion still is not passed by the end of July, up to 95 per cent of the previous fiscal year's limits are deemed authorised. I think as you said, Presiding Officer, in a meeting, it can cause serious problems.

In practice, it means that health boards will overspend from the beginning of the year up to the guaranteed 95 per cent. Local authorities can use reserves in the first part of the year, up until July, to protect 95 per cent of the current expenditure. For those councils with minimal reserves, the Welsh Government will need to make a short-term loan to allow the councils to continue operating. Either of those scenarios will play out for the rest of the public sector. This means substantial cuts to public services and large-scale redundancies if there is no budget.

The alternative suggested by the Cabinet Secretary for finance is to increase all budgets by inflation and leave any money left over to be decided post election, effectively a roll-over budget. This is not simple. Inflation is the rate of increases in prices, and there are lots of ways of calculating it. Every month, the Office for National Statistics checks the prices of several hundred items in a basket of goods and services designed to represent what people buy on average. The basket includes low-cost items such as a loaf of bread or a bus ticket, and also includes much larger ones, such as a car and a holiday. The basket's overall price is known as CPI. Holiday prices and bus tickets do not affect public services. The cost of public service inflation is different. To calculate the rate of inflation, they compare CPI with what it was a year ago. The change in the price levels over the year is the rate of inflation, but much of the recent rise in inflation has been created by global commodity prices, mainly energy and food. We used to use the retail price index, but that has now been superseded by the consumer price index. CPI, which focuses on a basket of goods and services, is typically purchased by households, whereas RPI is a broader range of items and includes mortgage interest payments and council tax. Now, very few public bodies are paying mortgage interest rates. Neither of these is the same as the rate of inflation for health, local government or other public services.

In August, the public services inflation rate was estimated at 4.7 cent, and in July it was 5 per cent. The inflation rate for different parts of the public sector will be different. But the public sector is not what the OBR produce, the CPI or the RPI; it is the increase in prices in organisations. Service inflation for local government is running over 4 per cent higher than the accepted inflationary estimate, so a 2 per cent uplift would be extremely challenging and not a standstill budget. If councils continue to make efficiencies across all service areas, where these are possible, a noxious combination of council tax increases, service cuts and job reduction will be felt by both staff and communities. 

What we can see is that public sector inflation is different to either CPI or RPI, so to use either would be inappropriate and, in fact, would be wrong. What we need is the rate of inflation for the public sector. And that information does exist, and that's what we need. Otherwise, we're going to have a roll-over budget, which will be rolling over cuts. And I don't think anybody in this room wants to roll over cuts. So, we need an increase of between 4 per cent and 5 per cent in order to meet it. If somebody can do a calculation for public sector inflation that gives a number different to that, I'd be happy to discuss it with them. But both local government and health are telling me that a roll-over budget needs 4 per cent or 5 per cent. A 2 per cent or 3 per cent increase is actually a 3 per cent or 2 per cent cut. Any less is a budget based on cuts, not a roll-over budget. 

And can I just finally say, on land transaction tax, if you cut land transaction tax, the only thing you do is increase house prices. 

Can I thank the Cabinet Secretary for this statement? Can I also say that I'm very grateful for the ongoing guarantee of the £30 million on social care, the £30 million on childcare, continued funding of the Heart of Wales line, year 2 of the £1 bus fare continuing, and also for a local authority funding floor? I want to start by being really clear that I am prepared and willing to work with any party to find a constructive way forward in this budget, as I did last year. We need to be ambitious. We cannot settle for a social care service that is struggling. We cannot settle for child poverty at 29 per cent. We cannot settle for our rivers and our seas continuing to be polluted. 

We need, firstly, ambition on social care. We've heard and we know that, across Wales, one in seven hospital beds is occupied by somebody who is ready to go home, but they cannot because the care isn't available. Social care pressures are now expected to account for almost 40 per cent of local government financial strain. Our care workforce is particularly stretched. They have limited progression, and one of the highest turnover rates of any sector. This weekend, the Welsh Liberal Democrats set out a bold plan to tackle the social crisis head on, funded by a modest one penny rise in income tax, because a penny for social care isn't about taxing more, it's about caring more. 

Childcare is another area where we need to be ambitious. Wales now offers the least generous childcare provision across the UK. And the latest Coram childcare survey shows that under-twos can cost families more than £15,000 a year, with some women spending nearly 60 per cent of their weekly earnings just to work. Through our work on the previous budget, we managed to secure the £30 million for the Flying Start programme, rolling that out across Wales to families wherever they live, because our ambition is very, very important, but we shouldn't just stop there. We believe in 30 hours of free childcare for 48 weeks a year, for every child from nine months to four-years-old. This is a far more generous and life-changing offer than we currently have. 

On our rivers and our seas, the pollution across Wales is increasing, sadly. We see our rivers and beaches being polluted with raw sewage, harming wildlife, damaging communities and threatening tourism. The scale is shocking. In our national parks, sewage overflows are happening at twice the rate seen elsewhere in the country, with Bannau Brycheiniog experiencing 489 hours of overflow in 2024. And my own local river, the River Wye, has deteriorated so badly that almost 4,000 people have taken the unprecedented step of launching the UK's largest ever environmental lawsuit. We need urgent and decisive action.

Finally, local services cannot be overlooked. Councils are on the front line, delivering what matters most to people. But over 70 per cent of local authority budgets are now eaten up by rising demand in social care, childcare and education. The WLGA warns that Welsh councils face a 7 per cent funding shortfall—a gap they cannot close without cutting services, making job losses or raising council tax. I was glad to hear of the continuation of the funding floor, but it does need to be ambitious. It does need to be at least 6 per cent.

Wales deserves more than just settling. It needs ambition. The challenges before us demand courage, co-operation and vision. We have shown in the Welsh Liberal Democrats that, when we work constructively, we can deliver real change. We look forward to more detailed proposals, and that, for all of us here in the Senedd, we need to really seriously engage with each other on the issues that affect people in their day-to-day lives. Diolch yn fawr iawn.

Cabinet Secretary, we are a legislature, and it is one of our primary functions as a Parliament. However, the funding arrangements for devolved Governments are inequitable. We have four legislatures in the United Kingdom, and whereas, for legislation at a UK level, resources are as required, of course there is inequitable provision in respect of the devolved Governments. One of the concerns I have is the ability to support not only the legislation, but also the legislative process, and in particular to also be supporting the ability to introduce backbench legislation. So, Cabinet Secretary, can I ask you how does the draft budget reflect or make adequate provision for the cost of legislation, legislative processes, and particularly the costs of backbench legislation?

Today's statement on the Welsh Government's outlined draft budget, 2026-27, lays bare what residents in Wales increasingly know to be the case: a lethargic Labour Government in Cardiff Bay that has run out of steam and run out of ideas. There are no new spending commitments, no growth strategy and no real vision for Wales. Instead, we are told that this budget will merely keep pace with inflation and that any 'excess funds' will be left for the next Welsh Government to decide. Well, Llywydd, if the current state of our economy is anything to go by, then the next Government can't come soon enough, because the people of Wales are paying more and getting less. We have the lowest employment rate in the UK, at 70.8 per cent, the highest economic inactivity, at 25.6 per cent, and unemployment rising month after month.

But this isn't abstract. Behind every one of those numbers is a family struggling with higher bills, a business facing closure, or a pub, or a young person leaving Wales in search of an opportunity elsewhere. So, the Welsh Government's priorities of green jobs and growth and opportunity for every family ring pretty hollow when we are moving backwards in both areas. The outline of this budget is business as usual—no ambition, no reform, no hope. Llywydd, the Welsh Conservatives have been clear about what we would prioritise in a budget: cutting the basic rate of income tax by 1p—the opposite of what the Liberal Democrats are promising today—saving the average household over £450 a year; abolishing land transaction tax on all primary residences, helping people get on the housing ladder and stimulating the housing market; scrapping business rates—[Interruption.] Certainly, Mike, yes.

Why do you think that scrapping land transaction tax would not just increase house prices?

Because it gives people the opportunity, as I say, to get on the housing ladder, invest in properties, and be proud to be a home owner, which is something to cherish, I believe.

We would scrap business rates for small businesses, the lifeblood of our high streets, and axe Labour's damaging tourism tax before it even begins—a tax on visitors, jobs and growth. These are practical, low-tax, pro-growth, pro-family measures that would actually make a difference to people's lives. But, instead, this Welsh Labour Government continues to show its anti-aspiration credentials. Their failure to manage public finances responsibly means they've had to raid £36 million from reserves just to plug a hole left by their own colleagues in Westminster. Instead of delving into reserves, they should be putting pressure on Rachel Reeves to scrap the disastrous rise in national insurance. The national insurance rise has caused chaos, with devolved public sector employers in Wales now short-changed by £72 million. That's money ripped out of our health service, our schools and our local councils and GPs. Dentists and small charities are left wondering how they are supposed to meet these new costs. This is what happens when Labour in Cardiff Bay and Labour in Westminster stop listening to the people who actually create jobs and deliver public services.

The leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Darren Millar, wrote to the First Minister with a constructive proposal. He recognised that, given the current parliamentary arithmetic, it would be difficult for Labour to pass a budget on its own. But he also offered an olive branch. So, I say to the Welsh Government, 'Work with us, and take this opportunity to make a real difference to the lives of people in Wales', because if this Government continues down the same tired path—[Interruption.] I'll take an intervention from whoever—

There are no people seeking to intervene, Gareth Davies.

I can see. I just like to think that people's comments would be on the public record, instead of hiding behind anonymity.

In taxing more, spending poorly, and delivering less, it will have no-one to blame but itself when this budget fails to pass. And there's only so long you can continue to blame everyone else for our economic woes. The Bank of England—

Would you take an intervention?

Certainly.

Would you say that your UK Government contributed to that economic impact? I was reading an article last week that was saying Brexit contributed far more significantly to where we are with the economy than the COVID pandemic. David Cameron took us to Brexit, trying to save your party. That worked well, didn't it?

Thank you for that, but people voted to leave the EU, Lesley, including your constituents in Wrexham, if I remember right. I know it's going back a few years now. But, indeed, yes.

The Bank of England have since admitted that two thirds of the market movement in 2022 was down to their failure to properly regulate pensions. But the Labour Government in Westminster has since poured petrol on this fire, with the so-called black hole worsening, with more borrowing, more taxes and higher spending. And after more than a year in office, GDP growth is nothing more than a rumour. The public's verdict on the UK Government speaks for itself, with Keir Starmer polling as the least popular Prime Minister in polling history.

But economic incompetence in the Labour Party, unfortunately for us, is not confined to the east of Offa's Dyke. That's why Wales deserves a budget and, more, a Government that rewards hard work, supports enterprise and helps people achieve their ambitions, not more business as usual from a tired party that's been in power for a quarter of a century. I urge the Welsh Government to work with us and do the best by Wales. Let's cut taxes, starting with our Welsh stamp duty and national insurance. Let's grow our economy and build a Wales not for dependency, but for opportunity and future vitality. Thank you very much.

I want to thank the Cabinet Secretary for finance for making this statement today about the outline draft budget. I think this is an incredibly important budget for Wales, built on the strong foundation of last year's budget, which included the £1.6 billion extra and, of course, an extra £5 billion over the spending review period. This is as a direct result of a Labour Government in the UK, and I think we should all recognise that.

I think this needs to be a budget that we all get behind as we do enter a period of momentous change in the Senedd's history. We must have public services and the people of Wales at the forefront of our minds when we're debating this budget today and in the actions that we take. I support the finance Secretary's strategy in dealing with this budget, and I believe it is in the interests of Wales that he is approaching it in this way.

I'd like to put on record my support for the commitment that has been made today to continue the £30 million for social care and the £30 million for childcare, agreed with Jane Dodds. I do believe that childcare is the route out of poverty, and I am pleased that the childcare provision for two-year-olds is already moving steadily towards including all two-year-olds, working very closely with the local authorities and ensuring the high standards that we have in Wales in childcare are continued, and I hope this will continue to develop.

I'm also very pleased to see the Welsh Government's commitment to providing adequate funding for the roll-out and provision of the BSL Bill. I'm pleased to be sitting on the Equality and Social Justice Committee's scrutiny of the Bill, and adequate resources have been repeatedly stressed by the people who have been giving evidence to us in the committee. 'Well done' to Mark Isherwood for introducing this Bill and to the Government for giving it support.

I'd like to talk briefly and ask a few questions about land transaction tax today. This is one of our most important devolved taxes and one that brings in essential funds for us to spend on our public services in Wales. I'm very pleased to see in his statement that the Cabinet Secretary has confirmed that land transaction tax rates and thresholds are remaining stable in Wales, as they've done for many years, bringing in £401 million in 2026-27. The threshold of land transaction tax being £225,000, with the average house price being £217,000, is very welcome, and, obviously, the majority of people in Wales are below the threshold. That is different in Cardiff, which has higher prices. But could the Cabinet Secretary confirm that six out of 10 properties in Wales remain below the threshold for land transaction tax? And has the Cabinet Secretary taken into account the four reductions in the Bank of England base rate this year in the decisions he’s made about land transaction tax? Diolch.

Thank you very much for your work and your statement today, Cabinet Secretary.

This year's budget is able to be based upon the firm foundations put in place by last year's Welsh Government budget, a significant step in the right direction after well over a decade of reduced funding coming our way. But we know realistically that, sadly, it will take time to reverse the impacts of this, and I know a number of local authorities, including across my own corner of the country, continue to face substantial pressures. I have relayed and rehearsed these challenges many times before making representations in this place. I will continue to work to advocate on this, but also to work collectively to think innovatively when it comes to the future provision of public services. And that spirit of collaboration and making it meaningful in practice is what I want to focus on today.

When it comes to the challenges we face and to inform the decisions we need to make, what we do have in Wales that doesn't exist in the rest of the UK is social partnership. Cabinet Secretary, this social partnership approach is something that we are both fairly familiar with, and I remain proud to have led on legislation to embed social partnership in Wales and invested in unlocking its potential. And there is real potential in the context of budget discussion and deliberations. Social partnership offers a means to not just engage, but actively involve partners from across the public sector and beyond. So, do you agree, Cabinet Secretary, that the still relatively new social partnership council has an important part to play in this?

We've heard earlier today, in this debate, about the potential consequences of a failure to pass a budget for our public services, but we must remember that at the heart of those are our dedicated public servants. It is vital that their voice is heard through their trade unions and our social partnership mechanisms. So, looking forward, as the first years of the social partnership duty reports are produced and fed into the social partnership council, it may be worth while to consider how that duty could become a key piece in a movement that would mean those who provide our services are empowered to proactively shape and improve the effectiveness of the services they work day in, day out to deliver. After all, they are the real experts by their real-life experience.

In closing, I genuinely believe that we have a duty to pass a budget that builds on what has come before, a duty to the people we have all been elected to serve and a duty to protect our public services and support our dedicated public servants. After all, Cabinet Secretary, as we both well know, working together in partnership for the greater good is the Welsh way of doing things. Diolch.

I'd like to thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement today, and acknowledge the complexity of providing a budget, knowing that every pound devoted to one service comes at the expense of another. Those trade-offs do tell us everything about a Government's values, and anybody in this Chamber who asks for money without saying where it's going to come from, I'm afraid, is living in a fantasy land.

Let me start with scale. The Welsh Government has £27.6 billion at its disposal, £13.7 billion goes to health and social care, £7 billion to housing and local government and £3.78 billion to education. These are huge sums of money, yet despite historic investment into these services, public confidence is low. Waiting lists remain stubborn, there are still problems in our education system and our councils are saying that children's services and adult social care face extreme budget pressures. Considering the amount of money we have put into these services, we are not seeing a return on that investment. I think that, in this Chamber, we have to be brave when it comes to public service reform. We can’t keep going on with business as usual, and I think we do need to have a real hard look at the structure of our public services across Wales to make sure that they’re fit for the modern world and make sure we’re not throwing good money after bad all the time, because doing the same thing over and over again is not the right way and not the right approach.

The outline budget, in my view, prioritises maintenance over that transformational reform, and I would just like to ask the Cabinet Secretary about the increase in staff in the central services Wales budget. I know that the Cabinet Secretary in the past has talked about not increasing central costs due to the cost-of-living pressures—I have seen Carolyn; I’ll come to her now—and pressures in other Government departments. So, I’d just like to know why he has changed that and whether, in increasing that budget, he has asked for other departments to make sure there are administrative efficiencies contained with those higher level budget allocations. Yes, Carolyn.

I wanted you to explain a little bit further how local government could reform. Over 14 years, they've restructured, reorganised. Forty per cent of jobs have gone and they've already cut the fat and are cut to the bone trying to deliver basic front-line services now.

Well, Carolyn, I think that we need to have a genuine conversation about the future of what local government looks like, the future of what education services look like within that local government footprint, and what the future of our health footprint looks like across Wales. We can't keep going with the same old narrative and keep funding it in the way that we are because it's not working now, so maybe we need to have a look at a new method. I know that the Cabinet Secretary himself has talked about an all-Wales public service in the past. Is that something that we have to look at again? I'm not against looking at reforming public services; others are a bit scared to do that, but I'm afraid that we have to grasp the nettle and get on with it. 

One thing in the budget that I’m very keen on—. We talk a lot in this Chamber about skills and our skills development, growing our economy, making sure we’ve got the infrastructure there in the future, but I don’t think we have that economic vision in the budget. Wales has lost an estimated £50.3 million in economic loss across our country, and I think we should see more money going into that skills agenda. As I said, if we want to build homes for people, if we want to have future infrastructure, we need to have people on the ground to do that. I commend the Minister for skills for his work in this area, but I think he needs more fiscal support to enable that to happen, to get those apprentices of the future, our university graduates of the future, to really invest in Wales's future.

So, here is the crux of my challenge to the Cabinet Secretary, and probably to everybody in this Chamber: we need to shift the focus from that symbolism to a focus on the substance. We need to change the budget. We need to look at reforming public services, because reforming public services is the only way we are going to deliver better value for money and better public services. We could use that extra headroom that the Cabinet Secretary has allocated, that £380 million, to put into skills to do that high-impact delivery. As I said, use it to uplift apprenticeship funding, give our councils more certainty in funding in the short term, especially those more sparsely populated counties that I know Jane Dodds and I and others represent across this Chamber. Diolch, Llywydd.

I am concerned that a 2 per cent or 2.3 per cent uplift for public services would be a real-terms cut, and many of the things that will be on people's manifestos and wish lists won’t be delivered, because we need the foundations in place first. Childcare places need childcare spaces that are properly funded and developed with staff in place. I would like to see the roll-out of childcare, but we need to make sure the foundations are there as well, and there is that continuation of funding uplift for councils to carry on with that work.

During the 14 years of Tory austerity, councils have been cut to the bone. Half in the UK were at risk of bankruptcy. They had a reprieve with the change of UK Government that believed in funding public services again, and health, however many are still stretched. Councils need at least a 4 per cent to 5 per cent uplift to cover pay rises and inflationary pressures, as Mike Hedges said. School transport costs have actually increased by 40 per cent since the pandemic. We need more investment in additional learning needs, nurturing in schools to get them back into schools now. We need to recruit more care workers, as Jane Dodds said, and I see the north Wales health board needs at least a 4 per cent uplift, and it's really worried about its budget. But we are finally seeing waiting lists come down, thanks to an injection of cash from the new UK Labour Government via Welsh Government, and I want to see that continuing. We need to carry on with that inflationary uplift.

Councils are planning their budgets now. All will be back on the table now: subsidies for public transport, sustaining the rural transport network, leisure centres, ice rinks, swimming baths, libraries, school transport, country parks, public toilets. I'm mentioning all of these because people don't realise what councils fund. Mother and toddler groups—I was knocking on doors in Rhyl and they were really upset that a local mother and toddler group had closed—and green spaces for nature and well-being. All these are really important to people. School governors are now looking at their budgets. Teachers need notice. If we lose them, we won't get them back. These are jobs—our public services are one of our biggest employers in Wales. There will be mass redundancies if a budget is not passed, or if it's just a roll-over budget. People need hope, a decent life. They value the libraries, the leisure centres and swimming pools, the bus service—all the things that get cut while councils have to try and cover the inflationary pressures of the needs of education and social healthcare. This is what causes division in communities, by them not having the things that matter to them.

People need change: investment in communities, a decent life, decent wages, and many people in Wales are employed by councils and health. Cabinet Secretary, I will ask you the same question I asked the FM a couple of weeks ago: can you confirm you will use all resources available to cover inflationary pressures to protect local services such as education, housing, transport, childcare and our health service? If we can get that 4 per cent to 5 per cent uplift for councils rather than going via the budget, I'd like to see it, just a flat rate as well, so that those councils that have struggled year upon year with the budget formula—especially those councils in north Wales—can get a decent uplift and to carry on delivering services. Thank you.

Like you, I was an active campaigner in the 'Yes for Wales' campaign in 1997 and again in 2001. In creating this Parliament, we've tried to create something different, something based on a consensual model. Deliberately, the layout in the normal Chamber reflects that, the voting system reflects that, and the fact that we can't cut and run to call an easy election or fail to pass a budget reflects that we are locked in here together and have to face up to serious choices together. This budget is a serious moment for Wales and for this Senedd.

Now, the finance Minister, I think to his credit, has not brought forward a muscular budget to force down the Senedd to meet his priorities. He's come with a very humble budget, I think, to say, 'Here is the basic package of measures that safeguards pretty much what we have, with a minimal uplift in costs, and the rest is open to a conversation.' Because by ourselves we cannot pass a budget. We've never been able to pass a budget by ourselves, but this year is particularly stark. Even with the help of one other, we will not be able to get the necessary support. We are six months away from a Senedd election, and clearly the politics is in everyone's mind. I heard the offer of the Conservatives to engage constructively, and that is welcome, but I think the mask slipped pretty quickly, because when I asked Sam Rowlands, the finance spokesperson, of how much he thinks it would cost to reduce income tax, scrap stamp duty and scrap the business rate, he said that would be in their manifesto. Well, we need to make a decision before the manifestos. We need to make a decision in the coming months. Now, he seems to have secret costings, a secret plan, but if Darren Millar's offer of a conversation with the Government is anything more than a stunt, then we need to move beyond gimmicks.

Now, my very crude calculations of a reduced income tax would be something like £300 million, scrapping stamp duty something like £400 million, and scrapping business rates, depending on what you had in mind, closer to £1 billion. Now, clearly, that is way beyond the £380 million that is available in the Welsh budget. Now, we've heard from a range of speakers this afternoon a range of aspirations of things that we all would like it to pay for. We've heard Mark Isherwood welcome the fact that the draft budget is going to support the private Member's Bill he's bringing in. That would suggest to me that he ought to support it. We've heard Jane Dodds welcome the fact that the ongoing expenditure for the agreement she reached last year is in there, and that would, to me, suggest that it deserves support again. But we haven't had anybody seriously engage with the Government about what that support would involve, and that's what we have to do; that's what the people of Wales expect us to do. As the finance Secretary said, this is not about harming the Government; this is about harming public services.

And let's confront the reality of not being able to pass a budget. What does that mean for public services in Wales, as well as just being embarrassing for the Senedd, the failure of the Senedd to do its job—so, very real damage, I think, to the devolution project? If we simply cannot do the job we were elected to do, which is pass a budget, what does that say about us as a serious place, charged with making decisions for Wales? We know, under the provisions of the Government of Wales Act, that a budget would be passed forward on just 75 per cent of current spending plans. Now, that would be catastrophic for local government. As the finance Minister has intimated, they'd be forced to set a budget based on that 75 per cent, and that would immediately mean redundancy notices issued for thousands of workers across Wales in order to meet with the county treasurers' manual for what their statutory responsibilities are.

So, this isn't some esoteric exercise, this isn't theoretical—this has got very real, practical consequences of failing to live up to our collective responsibilities, and it is easy for Members, on both Government and opposition back benches, to make a series of lists of demands, but here we are. We have £380 million unallocated. Now, we can suggest freeing more up by cutting things, or we can suggest how we prioritise that £380 million. And so far, politicians in this place are unwilling to do that, and that's what we all have to do. So this is not, at this point, about the Government getting its budget passed; this is, at this point, about the Senedd being able to pass a budget and discharge the responsibility on all of us.

I welcome some of the measures the finance Minister has put in place, particularly changing the way non-domestic rates are set to help small retail shops and ask out-of-town sheds to pay more. There's a lot of good stuff that we would support in this budget, but, unless it is passed, none of it will apply, and we will all have to explain to our constituents, when we knock on their doors in the next six months, why we have failed to be grown-ups.

The Cabinet Secretary to reply to the contributions made—Mark Drakeford.

Thank you very much, Llywydd, and I thank everyone who has contributed to the debate on the statement. This way to deal with complex issues such as the budget, I think works for us here in the Senedd.

Thank you to all of those who've taken part in this very interesting set of contributions. I'm not going to be able to respond to everybody, Llywydd, as you'd expect. I'm going to respond to a few, and I've got just a couple of very closing remarks. Thank you to Sam Rowlands for what he said. He pointed to the consequences of failure, and recognised the obligation on us all to avoid that. He said that the offer of discussions was one made in good faith, and I accept that, and I'm happy to continue to have conversations on that good-faith basis.

Unfortunately, Lee Waters took my list, because I too was going to help the Member, because, if he couldn't add up how much his ideas cost, I was able to help him with that: abolition of LTT, £401 million; a 1p reduction in income tax, £299 million; scrapping business rates, probably £1.2 billion—a £2 billion reduction in the income available to the Senedd that could only possibly be accommodated by very significant cuts in the things that we do. Sam Rowlands said that the people of Wales deserve more, but, unfortunately, if his proposals were to be put through, they would end up getting an awful lot less.

I thank Heledd Fychan for the constructive spirit of her contribution. She recognised the importance of getting the budget through the Senedd, and I'm looking forward to having more discussions with her over the coming weeks.

There were a number of specific points in Heledd Fychan's contribution. I continue to have discussions on national insurance contributions, and there is a meeting of all finance Ministers from the four nations in Edinburgh on Friday of this week. I'll be there and I'll be making these points again to UK Ministers. We have certainty of the level of contribution that the UK Government has made in relation to NSI. That does continue into next year. That's why I'm able to put it into the draft budget. Scotland has taken a different approach to the budget, but that's because its Standing Orders are different and it allows them to wait until later in the process. Of course, it radically narrows the amount of scrutiny that the Scottish Parliament are able to exercise over the Scottish Government's budget proposals. We have a much longer period, and that does allow the process of scrutiny to help us to improve the proposals that we bring forward.

Would you take an intervention?

Yes, of course.

Diolch yn fawr. A genuine question, really. We've had temporary access to the full Wales reserve with no limits on draw-downs this financial year. At what point do you expect to find out what the situation will be next year, because you've made your position clear, that you're continuing to press the UK Government on that, and I'm just wondering, for a practical consideration around what may or may not be achievable next year, maybe early information about that would be useful?

I agree with that point that the Member has made, Llywydd. Financial flexibilities are an agenda item in the plenary of the Finance: Interministerial Standing Committee on Friday, because all three devolved Governments have an interest in securing a more flexible approach to that, and that certainly would benefit a future Government in managing a £27 billion budget here in Wales.

Very briefly, through a small number of other points, can I assure Lesley Griffiths that we have made an assessment of the UK Government's proposals? It's not completely clear whether they will take any of them forward in the next financial year, but I am ready, should there be any measures taken, that we will act to secure Wales's position and to make sure we don't end up with large amounts of waste coming across our border because people think it's easier to use landfill in Wales compared to England.

Mike Hedges I think usefully set out what happens if a budget doesn't pass—you've heard a number of colleagues say that—but he also made some important points in relation to the use of local government reserves.

Thank you to Jane Dodds for her continuing constructive engagement in getting a budget to pass through the Senedd. There are many, many things that we would like to do, and money isn't always the answer. When it comes to childcare, for example, yes, you need money to invest, but you have to have a workforce, and it's difficult to recruit in this area, and you have to have spaces as well. I think Carolyn Thomas said that childcare places need childcare spaces, and we've abolished the payment of non-domestic rates for childcare spaces, but we still know that that is a challenge in the sector.

Mick Antoniw will have seen that we have made provision for the BSL Bill, the backbench legislation. I expect my colleagues, when they bring forward legislation, to meet the costs of that from their budgets. It's part of the normal work of Government to make sure that Government takes account of the measures it itself expects to take. But where that's not Government legislation then I think there's a responsibility to make sure that the will of the Senedd is supported by budgets.

I did hear Gareth Davies. He said the Government had run out of steam. I think we can safely say that he himself has not run out of clichés. [Interruption.] I fully accept that there will probably be more where they came from. [Laughter.] But I'll pass swiftly on.

Thank you to Julie Morgan for what she said. Look—

Oh yes, of course—yes. Please.

Thank you very much. I won't give you any more clichés, but just to say that when I say 'out of steam', you've got to remember that your party has been in Government for 26 years. You said yourself, in opening this debate, that this is the tenth budget that you've presided over, either directly or indirectly, in Government. That's making the point to say that perhaps it is out of steam and it's time for a new Government.

Well, Llywydd, the reason why the Government has been in place for 26 years is that for 26 years people in Wales have voted for that. We didn't win it in a raffle. We're here because we have faced the people in Wales time after time and they have supported the return of a Labour Government.

And yes, it's true that I have been directly and indirectly responsible for budgets in bad times and in good. And believe me, when you are lucky enough to be in a position where you've had £1.6 billion extra to invest in our public services last year, and another £1 billion this year, that is a world of difference from the years when we had to deal with the austerity cuts that your party imposed on Wales year after year after year.

Thank you to Julie Morgan. She emphasised the point of LTT, and I want to endorse what Mike Hedges has said, because the research is very clear, because LTT rates have gone up and down at different points under different Governments. When LTT rates come down, house prices go up. It's sellers, not buyers, who benefit, because, when there is more money in people's pockets, the price of the house goes up. That is what happens, and first-time buyers and other buyers do not benefit from that move. That is what the research shows unambiguously.

Now, Hannah Blythyn made the point about the social partnership council and I was very pleased to appear in front of the social partnership council a couple of weeks ago as part of this budget-making process. We haven't focused so much on the consequences of not passing a budget here this afternoon, but, believe me, the social partnership council did. They are very fearful of what might happen if this Senedd is not able, as Lee Waters said, to face up to its responsibilities in passing a budget, because you are talking not about the increment, not about the 1.4 per cent that we have still to play for here: instead of me coming forward with a budget that adds £800 million into our public services, I would be coming forward with a budget that cuts everything that this Senedd does by between £6 billion and £7 billion. That is what the social partnership council wanted to talk about, and that's why the responsibility we face here is so important.

I wanted particularly to thank James Evans for his contribution. I thought it was thoughtful; I thought it raised some new points. He makes the important point that there are trade-offs in all of this, and reform—I might disagree with him on the nature of reform, but reform—is a really important thing for us to debate, not simply more money for this, more money for that. There is more to making a budget, and we didn't hear many contributions this afternoon that focused on that wider picture.

He asked me specifically about the central services MEG. Llywydd, since 2010, the number of people employed by the Welsh Government has gone up by 8 per cent. It has gone up 28 per cent at the UK Government level, and it's gone up 57 per cent in the Scottish Government. And that is because, in the 10 years that I have been responsible, I have made it a rule that I wasn't prepared to treat the Welsh Government more favourably than I was able to treat any other public service, and that has meant real constraints in the capacity of the civil service machine to support the Welsh Government in all our ambitions, but I continue to believe that it was the right and fair way for us to treat ourselves in line with everyone else.

Thank you to Carolyn Thomas. She highlighted, as many colleagues have, the impact of the draft budget on local government. I continue to work every week with my colleague the Cabinet Secretary for local government, and local government figures as well, to find new and imaginative ways in which we can assist local government in the challenging circumstances that their unique legislative constraints place on them.

Let me end, Llywydd, where Lee Waters left off. This is not a debate about theoretical decisions; this is not a debate in a debating society. It is a debate in a place that is going to make one of the most consequential decisions in the lives of our fellow citizens that any Parliament of this sort makes. A failure to pass a budget is genuinely catastrophic—catastrophic to the reputation of the Senedd, undermining to the reputation of devolution, but, most importantly of all, catastrophic in the lives of those thousands of people who will be left without a service, without a job, without a prospect that we can hold out in front of them of things continuing to improve in the future. That's why the next few weeks are so important. That's why this is a start, not the end of the process; that's why the conversations that other parties have been good enough to offer this afternoon are so important. I look forward to them all, and I look forward to us returning here at the end of this process determined to discharge our responsibilities.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary. That's the end of that item.

The next item will be a statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Education, and that's an update on the additional learning needs reforms. Lynne Neagle.

Llywydd, today I have published the findings of the additional learning needs and education tribunal legislative review and the insights from parents and carers as part of the independent ALNET evaluation. The Education Tribunal for Wales has shared with me the insights drawn from judicial experience on appeals that did not resolve locally and will separately publish their report. I want to be clear that I had hoped the tribunal’s report would be published today, alongside the other evidence, as transparency and openness, especially with families, matters a great deal to me. Unfortunately, this has been outside my control. I have asked that it be published as soon as possible. Taken together with the wider evaluation, Estyn thematic reviews and system data, the evidence is consistent and informs the practical steps I will set out today.  

What matters to me is that we have an education system where all learners’ needs are understood and responded to with the right support in place. To realise our ambition for a truly inclusive, bilingual education system, the ALN reforms must work better in practice and be embedded effectively across the nought to 25 system. That means clear expectations, confident decision making and the right support in place for every learner, in every part of Wales.

The ALN reforms are one of the most substantial changes to our education system in a generation. I want to recognise what has been achieved through the collective effort of education practitioners, local authorities, health partners, as well as learners and their families. Together we have implemented new duties, new ways of working from the early years to adulthood, across education, social services and health. Alongside this there has been a cultural shift in delivering an inclusive education system in Wales. That scale of change has not been easy, and I want to thank all parts of the sector for their commitment and professionalism across education reforms.

Local authorities, schools and colleges have made progress. More than 32,000 statutory individual development plans have been created in schools through person-centred processes. In many settings, I have seen the reforms working well, particularly the emphasis on inclusion, putting the voice of the learner at the centre of the process, and strong teamwork between schools, families and services.

Estyn report on the agility and adaptations by schools to meet learners' needs, adjust provision and implement thoughtful, targeted and creative interventions. They also report on a growth in specialist resource bases in schools, offering nurturing, calm and supportive environments where pupils thrive and integrate into mainstream classes and participate in school life. This is being supported through our capital investment programme.

However, significant challenges remain. I have considered and listened carefully to concerns. The wider evidence confirms strong support for the principles of the reforms, especially inclusion and person-centred planning, but it also highlights inconsistency in how the definitions of ALN and additional learning provision are applied across Wales. There continue to be pressures, and despite substantial investment since 2020, resources are tight while complexity of need continues to rise. It is for this reason I am pleased to announce a further £8.2 million this year to be directly allocated to local authorities, education settings and colleges to improve delivery of ALN reforms. 

Today, I also publish the parent and carer survey as part of the ALNET evaluation. I want to thank the parents and carers who shared their experiences, and for speaking so candidly about the frustrations with delays, inconsistent decisions and a lack of clear information or support. The feedback is clear: families need better information and more joined-up support, and decision making must be more consistent in applying the law and the code.

We have also listened and learned lessons from delivery across Wales. Taken together, all of the evidence informs our focus on improved delivery so that every learner receives the right help at the right time, wherever they live in Wales. Today, I will set out the next steps and the timetable to achieve this.

Acting Dirprwy Lywydd, reform is a shared endeavour. It will take sustained effort, honest reflection and continued partnership to deliver the system that learners and families deserve. That is why, over the summer, I deliberately paused to examine the evidence we received and to start to explore practical solutions with partners. That work will continue and will drive actions against my five priorities.

First, clarity for the sector: who has ALN and what support can all learners expect in education? We are clarifying the definitions at the heart of the system: how to evidence 'significantly greater difficulty in learning' and what is 'provision made generally'. We will publish practical guidance, so that identification and provision decisions in local authorities, schools and colleges are prompt, fair and explainable, and are fully anchored to the legal framework.

Second, national consistency in delivery. Last month, I chaired our first ALN delivery and improvement board to provide stronger oversight of improvements. I am consulting on a new national ALN data set to develop a clearer national data picture, track performance and inform improvement. I am strengthening national support with new professional advisers to drive quality and consistent delivery in early years, mainstream education and supporting healthcare needs. We will share effective practice to develop shared solutions to common issues across Wales. A new ALN innovation grant will support education settings to strengthen delivery of the ALN system, enhance specialist expertise and share best practice in inclusive education across the mainstream and specialist education sector. We are further embedding the additional learning needs co-ordinator role within school leadership, so the role is recognised, supported and influential to lead strategic improvements in the delivery of support for learners with ALN. This is underpinned by a new professional learning programme on child development, neurodivergence and mental health.

Third, the right information and support for families. Families have told us clearly that uncertainty and lack of support have been among the most stressful parts of their experience. That feedback matters, and it is why strengthening the information available to families is a central part of the next phase. We are finalising the co-design of a parent and carer information toolkit, so that families know what to expect, when and from whom. We will also develop a suite of resources to better communicate the offer in early years, and options for learners progressing into post-16 education. We will shortly review ALN advocacy services in Wales to understand how services are currently delivered, identify where improvements can be made, and explore options to strengthen access to independent support. In addition, we will reinforce clear expectations on transparent decision making, so that families can understand how and why ALN decisions are made and ensure their rights to appeal are known. Together, we must reduce avoidable disputes and improve trust in the system.

Fourth, we are strengthening multi-agency integration across education, health and social care. We are co-producing new multi-agency guidance with delivery partners to provide clarity and consistency of practice and expectations between health and education settings. Revising the 'Supporting learners with healthcare needs' guidance will clarify roles and responsibilities, and a regional partnership board spotlight event in December will highlight the whole-system approach to supporting ALN across education, health and social services.

Fifth, we must continue on our journey to achieve a bilingual and inclusive education system: an education experience where learners' difficulties in engaging and accessing education are understood, and approaches and environments are adapted to meet their needs. We will expand professional learning and share existing effective practice happening across schools and local authorities, so that high-quality, inclusive practice is the norm in every classroom. We've already started work to improve understanding of ALN system costs and deployment of funding to deliver ALN provision for learners aged nought to 25. I have initiated the first quinquennial review to assess the sufficiency of Welsh-medium additional learning provision in order to strengthen consistency and quality across Wales.

Acting Dirprwy Lywydd, these reforms are a long-term commitment to fairness and inclusion. The statutory framework is in place, and the culture of inclusive practice is developing; the challenge now is consistent, confident delivery. Through co-production and evidence-based action, we will strengthen clarity and collaboration, so that every learner in Wales receives the right support at the right time, wherever they live.

Can I also take a moment to thank the Cabinet Secretary for this afternoon's statement and for the time she set aside this morning for a briefing? Making sure support is in place for those who need it the most is imperative, and this review is absolutely welcome, as the new system has certainly proved contentious. It is clear the reforms haven't been implemented in the way the Welsh Government originally intended and envisioned. There have been fears that children with ALN are being let down under the system, and I'm afraid, based on the review's findings, those fears are actually the grave reality. Consistency, or rather the lack of, is the fundamental flaw here, Cabinet Secretary, although that hasn't come as a major shock, as Estyn previously did warn, and I quote:

'the implementation of ALN reform was not consistent and, as a result, pupils' additional learning needs were not always supported well enough.'

My colleague and predecessor Tom Giffard MS highlighted the issues with ALN reform in early 2024, saying, and I quote again:

'Your statement today, and your response to that committee, leave me concerned that you aren't looking at the need to fix the clear issues with ALN reform with the urgency that it so clearly deserves.'

Tom's remarks, I would argue, are still applicable all this time later. Here we are, over a year down the line since his warning, and sadly nothing appears to have changed. The long-standing problems with consistency remain. So, my question, Cabinet Secretary, is simple: why has it taken so long for you to act on these issues when they've been known for a significant amount of time? In May last year, Cabinet Secretary, you told the Senedd, and I quote:

'It is vital we all work together to implement a system of ALN support that delivers for learners and which both parents and school staff can navigate...a focus on ALN reform has been among my first priorities. I want to ensure firm legislative foundations are in place, and I want to strengthen implementation by improving the consistency of the approach being taken.'

Given that was 17 months ago, and we now face the real prospect of not being able to amend the legislation due to the impending election in May next year, it would appear your party has been asleep at the wheel, Cabinet Secretary. Do you feel that is indeed the case? Because my biggest concern right now is that there's been a 53 per cent decrease in the number of pupils being identified as having ALN over the four years since the new system was introduced. That fall, from more than 92,500 pupils to just under 44,000, comes at the same time the Welsh Government acknowledges that more children are presenting with more complex needs. So, are children being lost in the system now, Cabinet Secretary, and slipping through the cracks, because how else would you explain the drastic drop in numbers? The previous Cabinet Secretary claimed that the decline was down to over-reporting and incorrect identification of ALN. I'd like to know: do you share your predecessor's views, Cabinet Secretary?

The additional workload pressures associated with the new ALN system, especially providing individual development plans for all learners with ALN, could raise the bar when it comes to accessing support. These are long-term concerns that have been flagged time and time again over the years, yet sadly they remain even today. We know there are major challenges in this area; we all accept that. There are acute backlogs, which are overwhelming local authorities and schools, coupled with long assessment waiting times. So, how is the Government going to address this now, Cabinet Secretary? We have previously warned that the number of children waiting for an autism or ADHD assessment in Wales could nearly triple to 61,000 over the next two years alone. Students are being left in limbo, with some already leaving school long before they even get a diagnosis. Obviously, I accept parts of this fall outside of your remit, Cabinet Secretary, but it needs to be a collective Government response to help alleviate the pressure in the long term. So, what discussions have you had with your colleagues in the health department about this issue, and what action will the Welsh Government be taking to tackle this impending increase?

Funding remains a big concern for many, Cabinet Secretary, when it comes to being able to effectively implement these reforms. This was a topic highlighted in the Governors Cymru Services recent national survey. One response said, and I quote,

‘The numbers of ALN are increasing considerably without the necessary funding from the LA. Resources spread too thinly’.

Another response said:

‘Cuts to the education budget in our county have meant we are unable to employ the number of staff needed to support our most vulnerable learners. As an inclusive school, we have various emotional, social and behavioural needs as well as sensory overloads and instead of being able to offer support we are having to cut the staff, to ensure we keep teachers in front of the class.’

Governors Cymru Services concluded, and I quote:

‘From the feedback we received, there does not seem to be a consistent and coherent picture of how ALN learners are supported. Comments indicate that ALN provision is not equitable, is insufficiently resourced and there is a lack of capacity in the system to ensure timely and effective intervention strategies are put in place.’

NASUWT research found that 89 per cent of teachers with ALN responsibilities are reporting that they do not have enough time to fulfil them, and 83 per cent of teachers say cuts to ALN funding and resources have increased their workload. The lack of resources is a major challenge, Cabinet Secretary. I appreciate that, and I think everyone from all our different parties can agree on that too. You've touched on an extra £8.2 million in today's statement, but given what I've just outlined, do you feel that that's enough? And can you please elaborate on how this is going to be distributed across Wales? Because the question is, and the problem is, all across Wales.

In this afternoon's statement you also referred to designing a toolkit for families to ensure that they're better equipped with information, but there's no timeline to this. So, I'd really like to know more about that. And I'd like to also ask, when does the Government expect this to be in place for families to have access to? Again, the same applies for the review of advocacy services—there is no timeline, Cabinet Secretary. So, I'd like to know when this piece of work will indeed start, and when do you anticipate it actually being completed?

The Member must now conclude, please.

Thank you so much. Cabinet Secretary, I'd like to also ask you, in depth, what achievable steps the Government will be taking between now and then so our young people with ALN aren't going to be forced to carry on suffering under the flawed system under the next Government, which will be formed in May 2026. Because it's really important that we get this right, and I'm yet to be convinced that this Government is on top of the issue. Thank you so much.

Thank you very much, Natasha, for your welcome for the review. There was some positive in there at least. You quoted Estyn. The last Estyn thematic review, published last December, confirms that ALN is beginning to deliver meaningful improvements across Wales, particularly in settings where it has been embraced with clarity and commitment. But they did also find inconsistent implementation across Wales, which is what I have been saying exactly today. They recommended greater consistency and transparency to ensure equitable and effective provision for all learners with additional needs, clearer guidance on responsibilities, stronger data monitoring, quality assurance for IDPs and improved communication with families. As I've just set out, we are acting on all those areas.

I certainly don't accept that I have been asleep at the wheel. I identified, having come into post, that there were concerns about the ALN system. I was concerned about our implementation of the ALN system. I read the evidence. I listened to the information I'd been provided with. I watched the president of the tribunal's evidence to the committee, and I have taken action, with a comprehensive review of the work in this area, not only commissioning the judge to provide evidence on the points that she had made, that the system was complex and unclear, but also taking evidence from 50 stakeholders, as well as undertaking our own internal Welsh Government review. This legal review—. This is a really complex issue and we have to do this right. I would have loved to have sorted it all out in three weeks after I came into post, and I wasn't in post early on in 2024 either. But we have to get this right. This is a complex issue.

The other point that I would make to you is we've only just finished implementing the system in terms of that the last lot of learners have only very recently gone over from the SEN system to the ALN system. So, this has been a process.

I would also make the point that the world has changed a lot since 2018 when we passed that legislation. We passed that legislation before we passed the curriculum legislation that introduces a very radical change, which provides the opportunity for differentiated tailored learning for our children and young people. We've had a pandemic, and we know that the pandemic has had an impact on the complexity of what we're seeing in schools in terms of attendance, behaviour. I've seen reports recently about the numbers of children who are starting school with very little language. That can also be related back to the pandemic. So, it is a very complex situation that we are dealing with here.

In terms of the points you made about numbers, again, this is a complex area because we actually have more than 32,000 learners with statutory individual development plans across Wales. That is more than the children who had a statutory plan under the SEN system. But what I do accept is that all the learners who are on the lower levels of SEN support—school action and school action plus—have not all transferred to this new system. Over the last four years, additional learning needs co-ordinators in schools have taken a person-centred, case-by-case approach to understand if learners have ALN. We know that lots of learners' needs are now met effectively through high-quality, inclusive practice and also underpinned by Curriculum for Wales.

We had that review to understand the reduction and variability in learners identified with SEN or ALN, and it is now clearer. It is partly due to consistencies in how ALN is identified across Wales. That is why the work that I have set out, clarifying the legal definition of ALN, is a top priority. We want practitioners to be able to make decisions that are consistent, fair and transparent and obviously based on the legislation. That's vitally important. That's why we've been working over the summer with partners to clarify the two-stage test for ALN. We've already got a draft of guidance on that, and we are moving with pace to make sure that that is communicated to the sector.

You raised quite a lot of other issues. In terms of the funding, the £8.2 million that is split between—. That's in-year money this year, on top of the many millions of pounds we've protected for ALN in the local authority education grant this year, on top of the increased money in the revenue support grant, which we were very clear with local government was to address pressures in ALN. That is £5 million for schools, £3.2 million for further education. The £5 million for schools will go out via the local authority education grant as usual, and we will be following that up with local authorities. The £3.2 million will go out via Medr to FE colleges.

In terms of the toolkit, the work on that is very nearly completed. We've co-produced that with parents, and we are hoping to launch that in November. The review of advocacy is due to start imminently and will report, I hope, early in 2026. But I would reiterate again that we have to get this right for children and young people, and this is a complex area.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary, for your statement and for your time this morning to discuss these matters in detail, with myself and officials, ahead of today's debate.

Plaid Cymru has long called for a truly inclusive education system, one that meets the needs of every learner, regardless of background, ability or language. I therefore welcome the opportunity to respond to this important update on the ALN reforms. Now, we in Plaid Cymru believe that these reforms must be delivered with ambition but also with realism. That means ensuring schools have the staff, training and resources to meet their statutory duties, and that learners and families can access support fairly, wherever they live in Wales. Now, that means a consistency in approach across local authorities—something we discussed this morning—and collaboration between health and education sectors, sufficient funding and effective professional development. I appreciate that you have already referred to some of these issues in your statement, and I welcome that.

But today’s statement must be judged against the lived experience of learners, families and educators across Wales, and the evidence is clear: the system is under strain. Estyn, the Children’s Commissioner for Wales, the Senedd education committee and the Welsh Local Government Association have all raised serious concerns about inconsistent implementation, under-resourcing and a lack of clarity in the system, which you've already acknowledged. So, it’s clear that further amendments to the ALN code, whether through legislation or regulation, will be required to address inconsistencies and gaps. So, while we recognise that there's a limited amount of time left in the legislative calendar before the end of this Senedd term, it's vital that preparatory steps are taken now to ensure that whoever forms the next Government can maintain momentum and avoid delays. So, will you commit to initiating preparatory work to ensure that any future amendments to the ALN code or supporting regulations can be progressed swiftly in the next Senedd term, and what will that preparatory work include?

Now, teachers, support staff and specialists are working tirelessly to meet growing and increasingly complex needs, but we must also ensure a baseline of competence across the education system. So, what consideration have you given to mandatory ALN training for all teachers and teaching assistants, both as part of the initial teacher's education and ongoing professional development? Now, this could ensure that all educators are equipped to identify and support learners with ALN and that universal provision is meaningful and consistent.

In Welsh: one vital element, in my opinion, is ALN provision delivered through the medium of Welsh. Estyn has recommended expanding Welsh-medium provision, and the children’s commissioner and the Welsh Language Commissioner have both drawn attention to the need to improve elements of these services. What consideration, therefore, is the Government giving to Welsh-medium services at present? And given that a statutory review is expected next year, we need to act now to address challenges such as recruitment, training and planning. 

As well as the Government’s own review of the legislative framework, there are several other reviews under way, for example the quinquennial review of Welsh-medium ALN provision, Audit Wales’s review, the Education Tribunal for Wales review and the Senedd’s education committee inquiry. So, how will the Welsh Government ensure that the findings and recommendations from these reviews are considered in a joined-up and strategic way, rather than in isolation?

To close, therefore, without urgent action, the promise of the ALN reforms will remain unfulfilled and the most vulnerable learners will continue to be let down by a system that lacks the capacity, clarity and consistency they deserve. I urge the Government to do as much as possible between now and next May to ease pressure on the system, and should Plaid Cymru or any other party form the next Government they then would stand ready to take whatever action is necessary to ensure these reforms truly work for pupils and parents alike. Diolch.

Thank you very much, Cefin, and thank you for your time this morning as well. I also very much welcome you stating Plaid Cymru's commitment to inclusive education. I think that's where we all want to go. That's the journey we are all on. I've not hidden from the issues today around consistency and the need for us to address those issues. I also very much agree with your points about lived experience. That's why I wanted to publish or ensure that all the documents were published today, because I've heard what families have said about battling. I don't want them to battle, and I want them to know that we are listening.

You raised the issue of the ALN code, and we discussed that this morning. Unfortunately, there isn't time to revise the ALN code in this Senedd term. If we were going to do that, a new draft code would have to be issued now for consultation, and we're not at that stage yet. Also, stakeholders have been very clear with us that they don't think we should rush this. We have to get it right. That's very important. We don't want to repeat any mistakes. What I will give you my assurance on is that we are preparing for there to be those legislative changes—obviously, for whomever is the new Government to take that forward. You have my absolute assurance; I just want to see progress in there. You referred in your closing remarks to vulnerable learners. That's the lens: looking at what the needs of children and young people are. That's why I get out of bed in the morning. So, you have my assurance that we will take that forward. I should as well thank my officials, actually. They don't get thanked very often, officials, but I want to thank my ALN officials, who have worked tirelessly on this for months, and it has been a complex and difficult piece of work. I can assure you that they and I will continue doing that to make sure that we make progress.

You've highlighted the various reviews. The quinquennial review is set out in the primary legislation, so we have commissioned that. The ETW review is really part of this work. We commissioned it, and we provided some funding for it. So, that is a key part of the work and has been fully taken into account in the work programme we've put together. I also welcome the Audit Wales review, which we expect to be published in February. I'm very happy to assure you that we will do our very best to triangulate all those reviews. The quinquennial review won't report until after the Senedd elections.

You also raised very important issues around the Welsh language. Obviously, it is not just the quinquennial review that we are taking action on in this space. Obviously, as a Government, we're committed to our 'Cymraeg 2050' strategy. One of the key principles of the legislation is to create a bilingual system. Back in April last year, we appointed an implementation lead for Welsh language, Trystan Williams. He is doing really great work with the sector to transform how Welsh-medium schools support learners with ALN. We really have made some significant strides since he has been in post. So, to give you some examples, we now have innovative tools such as Siwrne Siarad, which are making a difference, empowering teachers to identify and support children's language and literacy needs earlier and more effectively. That's going to be published on Hwb, so that all practitioners can use it. We also have a literacy mapping tool, a digital platform to help schools identify, monitor and track individual learners’ literacy development so that we can intervene in a timely way. The books council and Adnodd have commissioned a set of Welsh-medium reading books for children with ALN. We've also invested in what was the Cardiff literacy tool, now called GoFaL. That will give us a rigorous, standardised assessment, tailored for a bilingual environment, to pinpoint literacy needs in 11 to 17-year-olds, while also guaranteeing them fair access to Joint Council for Qualifications exam arrangements. We're doing other things, such as a series of bilingual podcasts, showcasing effective practice amongst educators.

But I'm not going to hide from the challenges here as well. You're well aware, Cefin, of the challenges we've got in recruitment in Welsh-medium, and the same goes for our more specialist workforce. The strategic workforce plan that we're developing will set out measures to tackle some of those issues.

Buffy Williams as Chair of the Children, Young People and Education Committee.

Diolch, acting Dirprwy Lywydd. I'm pleased to speak today on this important issue on behalf of the Children, Young People and Education Committee. As the Cabinet Secretary is aware, we've been following the implementation of the ALN reforms since the start of the Senedd. Children only get one chance at school, so it's essential that all children get the support they need so they can thrive. Sadly, this is not the case for too many children, which is why we welcomed your commitment to undertake this review at our committee meeting in May 2024. As a committee, we ensure that lived experience is at the heart of our work. We make sure we hear from parents and carers, children and young people, and partners in local government and the third sector, because these are the people dealing with the ALN reforms on the ground, day in, day out.

One of our biggest concerns has been the significant decrease in learners being identified as having ALN, concerns I know you share. So, Cabinet Secretary, has the review identified the primary factors causing this decrease of over 50 per cent? And are you fully confident that children who are no longer recognised as having ALN, and therefore do not have an individual development plan, are having their needs met? And do you think that the ALN system is being implemented as the Welsh Government originally intended when the Act and subsequent code were passed? If not, what concrete actions will the Government be taking to deliver the necessary improvements or at least clarify how the system is supposed to operate? And when will these actions start to bear fruit? Diolch.

Can I thank the Chair of the committee for those comments and commend the committee for their ongoing focus in this area and their commitment to listening to the lived experience of families? We've discussed a little bit already the issues with the numbers. As I said, there was a review by ALNCOs, who looked at this on a case-by-case approach, but I also recognise that there are also issues with the inconsistencies and how ALN is identified across Wales.

We're in a very different place to 2018, and, when the legislation was going through the Senedd, obviously, I was the Chair of the committee then. We believed that all learners who were in the special educational needs system, so school action, school action plus, as well as statemented, would move over to the ALN system. That clearly hasn't happened, but, for some children that will be because of inclusive practice and our schools getting better at meeting the needs of learners through things like the whole-school approach, the new curriculum. But that's why—the inconsistency point is why—the top priority, as part of this work we're doing, is to clarify the definitions of ALN. That is about making sure that everyone understands the two-stage test. They need to understand that there's a two-stage test. There needs to be an understanding of the range of evidence that informs the first stage of that, which is specifically what constitutes 'significantly greater difficulty' in learning, but then they also need to be able to describe the provision that is made generally available in Wales, which is the second part of that test. So, if a child is entitled to additional learning provision, that provision is additional to provision made generally. If I can just assure the Member that we started work over the summer on this. We established a working group to clarify this. That group is being chaired by Gaynor Davies, who's the director of education in RCT, and Dr Lowri Brown from Conwy County Borough Council. That work has continued over the summer. We already have draft guidance available, which is being tested with the sector.

With your permission, acting Dirprwy Lywydd, I've realised that I didn't respond to Cefin Campbell's point on professional learning, and I just want to recognise how important this is for families. I think we're going to need to be in a situation, because of the rising numbers of children with additional learning needs and higher complexity, where our whole school workforce is upskilled to support children, and I think we're well placed to do that now. Obviously, we've got Dysgu in place, our new professional learning body; it's early days for Dysgu, but I've been clear with Dysgu that the priorities are literacy, numeracy, inclusion and mental health and well-being. So, we will expect Dysgu to come around that and make sure that we can promote that learning throughout the sector. With our school improvement partnership programme, we're joining that up now with the work on inclusion, so we're bringing together the inclusion leads and the school improvement leads, so that inclusion isn't over there, it's part of the core of what we're doing. Over the winter now, we're piloting a new professional learning programme on child development, neurodivergence and mental health that's been developed by Education Support. I'll be looking to see how we can roll this out. What I would say is that some schools are really, really good at this anyway, so what we need to do is make sure that all schools come up to the level of the best. Thank you.

I really welcome the statement today. I welcome the review. I really welcome what you've just said in terms of training too, because during scrutiny work in the past that has been a key element.

If I may ask in terms of Welsh language provision in particular, it is very, very much a postcode lottery in terms of that support. It's as much about attitude in some local authorities as it is about the availability of resources, and I wonder what conversations you're having with local authorities. I would be happy to have a conversation with you about some of the casework we're receiving, which has really shocked me, because it's causing greater distress for those families and adding to that feeling of having to battle for provision for their child and being seen as problematic because they want their child to receive that support in Welsh. So, I wonder if you'd be willing to meet with me around those specific issues.

In terms of the further £8.2 million, one of the things that I'm told by schools is how much the resource element is impacting how they're able to support children. So, how much of that money will go directly to schools, of the £8.2 million? And if I may, I note in terms of some of the review that has been published and the comments made by parents that 85 per cent of people who've electively decided to home educate their children have said that the lack of support was one of the reasons, and half of them would like their child to return to school. So, how do we support those families that want to get those children back to school to ensure that they are able to do so?

Thank you very much, Heledd. I do really recognise that we've got a lot of work to do on Welsh-medium provision, and I want children who are being educated through the medium of Welsh not to be pushed out of the system because the provision isn’t there. I’ve had children in my own constituency who that has happened to and that shouldn’t be the case. ALN is a key part of the WESPs, and Trystan Williams reviews the WESPs. Obviously if there are any shortcomings in the WESPs, that is pursued then with the local authorities, but I’m very happy to have a meeting with you to discuss the casework that you have picked up, or for you to write to me, whichever is most convenient.

Look, I’m not going to hide either from the fact that there are huge resourcing pressures in schools at the moment, and ALN is a very big part of that. It’s also a massive pressure for local authorities with school transport costs going up and up and up. It’s one of the reasons why I’ve been so vocal about resources for education. We secured last year—. This year and last year, we were able to invest an extra £262 million into education, but the demand is continuing to grow. And what I’ve tried to do with these pots of money is make sure that as much of it reaches the coal face as possible, and I will do that with this money. But it’s not just about the pots of money for ALN; what you find is that when schools are under pressure with funding, the staff that are first to go are things like pastoral staff, the staff who help with behaviour, and things like that. So, it’s a systematic approach that we need. Obviously, we had the initial discussion about the budget today, and I will be continuing to make as strong a case as possible for education, and hopefully lots of other Members will as well.

And on the elective home education, I absolutely recognise what you said there, because I know that there are families who have withdrawn their children for that reason. Obviously, we want our children to be in school. As part of this work, we’re doing specific work around three groups of children: home-educated children, children who are educated other than at school, and also care-experienced children. There is a mechanism for home-educated children to get support from the local authority, and I quite often write back to Members to advise them of that, but I recognise that if families feel their needs aren’t being met, that’s quite a big hurdle to overcome.

I completely support your ambitions for an education system where all learners’ needs are understood, responded to, and with the right support in place. But I want to focus at the moment on a glass-half-full situation, rather than a glass-half-empty, because there’s lots of fantastic work going on, and we need to build on that. We know that good practice doesn’t travel easily, so I want to focus as well on the need to reduce avoidable disputes and improve trust in the system, and that is because some people have unrealistic expectations of what’s involved here. I do not believe that 70 per cent of all young people need an IDP. I think lots of children need additional support, but that’s not the same as an IDP. It’s also important to know that interventions can lead to reduced support being needed, because the intervention’s been successful at supporting the learner to overcome the difficulties they were having.

So, I’ve got three things about spreading good practice. Yes, it can be a very confusing process for parents, who of course all want to do the right thing for their child. So, I want to commend the single spreadsheet used by St Teilo's Church in Wales High School, where I’m a governor, where all the staff who interact with a particular pupil can record their observations on that one sheet of paper. It’s a live active document, obviously on a computer, but also the pupil and the family member can also add their comments at every stage of the process. And then, at secondary school—

The Member must conclude now, please.

Okay. So, strengthening the role of the ALNCo is very important, because of that professional development for less-experienced teachers and learning support staff, who are often the ones doing the one-to-one work. Also, Ceredigion LEA is clearly well ahead of the game in terms of inclusive education—

I've been very, very generous, Jenny Rathbone. Please come to an end.

Okay. I think it's really how we spread identifiable good practice, so that we're not repeating poor practice, and we're dealing with it much more quickly.

Thank you very much, Jenny, and you're absolutely right, there is some really great practice out there. You mentioned Ceredigion, and I went to Ceredigion, because Ceredigion doesn't have any special schools, and they told me that they hadn't sent any pre-16 learners out of county since about 2018. I went to Ysgol Llwyn-yr-Eos, which has resource units, and the complexity of the needs of those learners who were being educated in a mainstream school was really, really inspirational. But we need to spread that good practice, and that's why we've started these inclusive practice events, and we're looking at other ways of sharing the good practice via Hwb and podcasts and what have you.

Thank you for the example of St Teilo's. It's really important that we're all moving towards a system where we've got a consistent way of collecting information. It can respect local need, but we need to look at that good practice and ensure that we share that.

Thank you for mentioning the role of the ALNCOs. I've met many ALNCOs since coming into post and I think they are doing an absolutely outstanding job. They're under a lot of pressure, and some of them, I think, feel overwhelmed, and I want to do everything we can to support them. That's why we are moving ALNCOs to the leadership scale, as recommended by the Independent Welsh Pay Review Body. We want them to have that strategic role within the school, and also to be recognised and have the status for that.

May I thank the Cabinet Secretary for today's statement? It's very, very clear to me during my constituency surgeries how many families are facing more problems month on month. A number of families have become campaigners and petitioners. I thank people like Danielle Jones for educating me about the impact that a lack of support and sluggishness in getting assessments has on them as families.

I am pleased that the Cabinet Secretary has referred to the huge pressures on local authorities and schools to provide the necessary support, and whilst I welcome the announcement on greater investment, it would be good to get a better understanding as to how that will impact families. So, what would the Cabinet Secretary's message be to families as to how additional support for local authorities will make a real difference to them? How will additional training, how will the expectations for consistency across Wales work through to ensure that families do see the real impact of this soon?

Thank you very much, Rhun. Obviously, I recognise the pressures families are under. I don't want to see any families having to battle. I think the investment piece is multifaceted, really. The extra money that we've announced now, and the extra money I announced last year, will go out via the local authority education grant, but I do expect that money to reach the coal face. That will be spent on things like professional learning, making the space for that kind of professional learning, and working with the priorities that local authorities and schools have identified.

What I should say as well, though, is that also, as part of the work streams that we've set up under this work, we've got a piece of work on finance that is being led by Will McLean, who is the director of education in Monmouthshire. He is looking in granular detail at the ALN pressures across Wales, how that money is being allocated, and that will give us a much clearer picture. The other thing to flag is that we've had the review of school funding formulae in local authorities; obviously, we've got 22 different formulae, 22 different formulae for ALN. And we've consulted on regulations that will mean that we can see the amount of money that's going out via ALN, and I think that transparency—. Obviously, it's not going to alter the size of the overall cake, but I think the transparency will help us to see where that money is going and will lead to more accountability.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary.

We move on now to item 5, which is a statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Trefnydd and Chief Whip: Hate Hurts Wales. And I call on the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Trefnydd and Chief Whip, Jane Hutt.

Thank you very much, acting Llywydd. The Welsh Government is proud to support National Hate Crime Awareness Week.

We will continue to tackle the root causes of hate and, as we stand up to hate, we will continue to support those who have been affected by it, and strengthen awareness of the benefits of community cohesion. We have seen a worrying rise in hatred and division in recent years. Antimigrant narratives and protests have dominated consecutive summers, and just weeks ago, a vile terrorist attack targeted a synagogue in Manchester. This hateful activity corrodes our communities, leaving many feeling scared and isolated. 

Hate crime affects victims year round. Attacks based on identity are a deep societal wound. Our efforts must be continuous, but National Hate Crime Awareness Week offers a vital moment to refocus and reflect. When we act together, we send a clear message: we are united against hate and united in our goals to nurture community cohesion in Wales. The Welsh Government’s stance is unequivocal: hate and prejudice have no place in Wales. This principle underpins our 'Anti-racist Wales Action Plan', our LGBTQ+ action plan and the development of the disabled people’s rights plan. One of our seven national equality objectives is to create a Wales free from discrimination, harassment and hate crime. The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 also includes a goal of a Wales of cohesive communities.

This year’s National Hate Crime Awareness Week focuses on disability hate. Yesterday, I spoke at an event hosted by our Wales Hate Support Centre, where we heard how hate remains a major barrier to equality for disabled people. Deep-rooted prejudices and misconceptions fuel these crimes, which often go unreported. Victims may fear they won’t be taken seriously or lack the confidence to speak out. Sadly, sometimes perpetrators are even perceived to be a friend by the victim, so-called 'mate crime'. We must break down these barriers. That's why we have increased funding for our Hate Hurts Wales campaign, helping victims recognise hate crime and seek help. We are also encouraging bystanders to become upstanders. While most people believe in helping victims, many don’t act. We aim to build confidence so that bystanders can offer meaningful support. We also want perpetrators to understand the consequences of their actions on victims and themselves. They will see that we are empowering victims and encouraging bystanders to record and report hate. I hope that Members will amplify the campaign that is now under way. Please share materials across your networks. Together, we can maximise its impact. 

We are proud to fund the Wales Hate Support Centre, which offers vital support to victims, including young people. The centre also hosts the lived experience advocacy forum, where survivors help improve our collective response. The latest national hate crime statistics for England and Wales were published last week, and the figures for recorded hate crimes across the four Welsh police force areas show a 5 per cent increase overall compared to the previous year. We are taking this increase very seriously and we are alert to the rise in hateful narratives, particularly in relation to religious and race-motivated hate. 

Great efforts are being made in Wales to eradicate hate crime, but there clearly remains much work to be done. We all want to see a Wales free from hate and we'll have to keep going to achieve this. Increased recorded hate does at least suggest communities have faith in police forces and the Wales Hate Support Centre to provide them with help.

Despite recent hate, those who commit these crimes are a tiny minority.

a tiny minority. But unless the silent majority speaks out, unless bystanders stand up, and unless we as a Senedd resoundingly reject hate and division, communities will remain fearful and isolated. Some trivialise hate crime as mere name calling. We must remind the public that hate crime is any crime motivated by prejudice. It causes lasting harm and undermines cohesion. We must treat it with the seriousness it deserves. The consequences of inaction in the face of dehumanisation and hate are clear to anyone with a passing knowledge of history.

Though policing, hate crime legislation and prosecution are not devolved, we have duties under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and Equality Act 2010 to build cohesive communities and eliminate victimisation. Last Thursday, the Equality and Social Justice Committee published its report following its inquiry into social cohesion in Wales. The inquiry pulled together a wealth of experts to inform the discussions, and we're grateful to them for providing their knowledge and insight as part of the process. We welcome the committee's report and will set to work immediately by accepting recommendation 1 to set up an expert group on social cohesion. We're considering the rest of the recommendations at pace. We'll want to ensure the expert group draws upon the range of excellent initiatives and partnerships in place across Wales. To expedite this, I've asked Gaynor Legall CBE to chair this expert group and provide independent oversight of the development of actions we can take in the coming months.

It's clear from the inquiry that there is a strong desire to see increased involvement and leadership. A great example of this is the Arts Council of Wales’ Cynefin programme. The programme offers schools the opportunity to work with diverse creative professionals to explore the ethnic diversity in Wales and the contributions this makes to society and culture. I've recently extended the funding of the community cohesion co-ordinators until 2029 to allow us to continue to build on the positive work highlighted during the inquiry. This work is supported by the work and effort of so many partners across Wales to bring together communities. I'm pleased the committee recommended this action.

Our faith communities forum provides a space for dialogue, to listen and learn from each other, and celebrate the contribution faith communities can make and do make to their wider communities. It fosters mutual understanding and paves the way for respect and civility. The forum recently met and discussed cohesion issues on 21 September, continuing our invaluable inter-faith dialogue. 

Online hate and misinformation are growing threats. Recently, individuals and organisations promoting inclusion and cohesion have been targeted. We're working to help partners stay safe and navigate hateful content. Social media and tech companies must do more to protect users from harms. We continue to work with Ofcom to understand how new powers will protect people in Wales. Finally, Llywydd, I urge us all of us to speak out in solidarity—not just this week, but every week.

Hate hurts Wales, and must not be tolerated.

Thank you for your statement, Cabinet Secretary. Hate has no place in Wales, and I agree with the Welsh Government that we must do everything we can to eradicate hate crime in Wales. It sickens me that, in recent weeks, we saw a young man drawing swastikas across Maesteg, including outside a Chinese restaurant. It is a sad fact that social media algorithms are driving more and more young people into the so-called manosphere and down an outright rabbit hole. These online communities help fuel their isolation, their fear of others and drives their hate. Thankfully, the vast majority does not act on their hatred, and we have seen recorded hate crimes in Wales trending downwards over the past decade. 

Cabinet Secretary, there was an overall 5 per cent decrease in hate crimes in England and Wales, yet a 5 per cent increase here in Wales. Why do you believe the situation across Wales's police forces has deteriorated? The latest Home Office figures show

Home Office figures show that religion-based hate crimes have risen by a quarter in the past 12 months. The percentages are stark: 121 people per 10,000 were attacked for being Jewish and 10 per 10,000 for being Muslim.

Cabinet Secretary, you spoke of the work of the faith communities forum, which does invaluable work to foster mutual respect and understanding between faith leaders. But how can the forums foster cohesion and understanding among the wider public? You state in your statement that social media and tech companies must do more to tackle hate and how you are working with Ofcom. Ofcom has a role in protecting children, but for the young adults, it is still the wild west. Cabinet Secretary, I understand you have no powers over the tech companies, but what discussions have you had with the UK Government about the actions they can take to tackle disinformation?

Of course, we also have to be careful that we do not have a chilling effect on free speech. Do you agree that an atheist poking fun at a religious doctrine is very different from a far-right thug calling for death to all Muslims and Jews? Cabinet Secretary, has the Welsh Government called on the Home Secretary to abandon plans to require recording of non-crime hate incidents and to focus on tackling actual hate crimes such as the incident in Rhyl where anti-Muslim graffiti was spread across the town?

Finally, Cabinet Secretary, I will proudly ‘Show Racism the Red Card’ on Friday and we have to make it clear that Wales is a tolerant nation except when it comes to hate crime. But do you agree with me that, unless the UK Government tackles the rise in illegal immigrants that does little to foster community cohesion, we risk Wales becoming a more intolerant nation? Diolch yn fawr.

Diolch yn fawr, Altaf Hussain. I thank you for the support for this statement and will respond to many questions that you have made, but I would start by saying that this is a statement where I hope we can come together across this Chamber. Actually, it was a cross-party committee, the Equality and Social Justice Committee, that produced this pioneering report, and we have set up an expert group. But I want to say that, while immigration policy is a reserved matter, this Welsh Government is deeply committed to ensuring that everyone who makes their home in Wales feels safe, valued and supported.

You have seen my written statement where I corrected the misinformation—. You ask about how we tackle misinformation. I do ask you again to look at my statement, because there is misinformation in how our policy has been portrayed, which has had an adverse impact on organisations, particularly those who are helping Wales to be that welcoming country, which actually is helping to ensure that we enable anyone who comes to live in this country—. We are taking our proportional share of sanctuary seekers to Wales within the UK, around 5 per cent. It’s not about how many people come to Wales. It is actually about how we give anyone who arrives the best chance of integrating successfully and benefiting host communities. That has to be absolutely the forefront of our commitment across this Chamber, I believe, today to say that hate hurts Wales.

We do take the 5 per cent increase in recorded hate crime in Wales very seriously. It comes after two annual decreases. Of course, there was an issue about under-reporting. We know that a rise in recorded hate crime does not always reflect an increase in hate incidents. I think it is very important that we make people aware and that they are confident that they can report hate crime.

I am incredibly concerned about a 30 per cent increase in religious hate crime in Wales compared to last year. This follows a 21 per cent increase in last year's statistics. No one should have to fear violence for exercising their religious freedoms, whatever your beliefs, background or none. We recognise that attacks 

We recognise that attacks on our faith communities are attacks on the freedom and values of our whole society, that whole society should be able to enjoy.

I will just respond to your point about online hate. Again, I'll touch on the point about misinformation because the risk and impact of online hate and misinformation continues to increase. We have seen organisations, as I have mentioned, and individuals targeted. These are organisations that are actually fostering good relations, building cohesion in Wales. We're working to ensure that partners know how to stay safe and to respond to misinformation and hateful targeting. We're working with the Welsh Local Government Association to look at training for local authorities and councillors to help them navigate online hate and misinformation.

Can I finally, just in response to these questions raised by the Member this afternoon, say how much I welcomed the statement from the Welsh Local Government Association in response to the committee's report, and also in response to our Hate Hurts Wales campaign? Can I just quote from Councillor Jason McLellan, the spokesperson for social justice?

'We also welcome the report’s emphasis on tackling misinformation and extremism and their toxic impacts on discourse and democracy. Abuse and intimidation are making it harder for people to take part in public life, risking silencing those who most need to be heard. Civic engagement relies on people feeling safe, informed, and empowered to contribute. Nobody should be made to feel excluded or that they don’t belong in our communities.'

It's so good that local government is working closely with the Welsh Government and our partners in civic society to tackle hate in Wales.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary for the statement. I saw an advert on Facebook from the Welsh Government providing information about the Hate Hurts Wales campaign, and some of the comments under the post spoke volumes, I think, about the challenges that we face; comments like:

'If those we don't want here were not here, then they couldn't be targeted or abused, and everyone's happy'. 

'There's no such thing as a hate crime'. 

'Diversity equals division'.

And there were other comments that I don't want to repeat but disparage and attack the campaign. And I'm proud to say that there were also a number of comments that challenged these views. But what is frightening to me is that denying or justifying hatred towards people in Wales is now so commonplace, and acceptable to some in our society. It's a frightening time for minorities and people who are seen by some as legitimate targets, either for physical attacks, online attacks or political attacks.

Wales is facing deep divisions, but these are not divisions that have been created by differences but divisions that have been fomented by hatred, targeting people who are portrayed as being different. A hate crime is more than an act of violence. It is a message targeting not only an individual but a whole group, whether rooted in racism, religious intolerance, homophobia, transphobia, xenophobia or ableism. The motive is the same—to make someone feel less than others, less than human, to isolate them and to terrorise them.

The Holocaust survivor, Elie Wiesel, said:

'The opposite of love is not hate, it's indifference'.

And I'm pleased that you mentioned in your statement about that duty that everyone has to stand up to this hatred which is damaging our society and terrorises people in Wales. Indifference allows greed to take root and grow to destroy communities and poison future generations, undermining equality,  fairness and compassion, principles that are the basis of any civilised society. So, I agree that to resist hate we must name it, educate each other about it, listen to the voices of those who face it, and most importantly, take action.

You did refer to the work of the Equality and Social Justice Committee and our new very important report about the growing divisions in our communities, and our calls for action from the Government 

for action from the Government. And I do welcome the fact that you as a Government—and as you mentioned in your statement—want to respond immediately to our recommendation to establish an expert group to lead this urgent work of addressing these divisions and their implications for public safety. While I welcome this, does the Welsh Government intend to act and invest to ensure the social cohesion that would prevent hate crimes from happening, for example—band this is something that we mention in our report—by supporting the right of communities to buy resources that would help bring people together? That is something that the future generations commissioner has also called for, isn't it? And, in terms of the group, could you provide more details about what the remit of the expert group will be and when we can expect them to report back?

Plaid Cymru believes in a Wales where diversity is celebrated, not hated or despised. We have long argued that if we are serious about tackling hate, then we must have the powers to do so. So, Plaid Cymru's message is very clear on that: justice must be fully devolved to Wales, as well, as policing, and we can't tackle hate, which is growing, with our hands tied behind our backs. So, beyond words, how is the Welsh Government making the case for devolving powers over areas such as policing and justice in order to properly tackle hate in Wales and to improve social cohesion in general? What reason is given to you by Labour Ministers in Westminster for not conferring those powers to the Welsh Government? Thank you.

Diolch yn fawr, Sioned Williams. As you rightly say, we're already debating this, really, this afternoon, in terms of different questions and scrutiny. The challenges of us really being able to implement the Hate Hurts Wales campaign are enormous. They are challenges that we have got to face. This is about leadership across the Chamber, and Hate Hurts Wales is our anti-hate crime communications campaign. It's important that it highlights to perpetrators, or potential perpetrators, the hugely negative impact of their actions on both the victim, on their own lives, and on our communities. And, of course, what we're doing in the campaign is highlighting, as I've said, the importance of bystanders. Bystanders have—. We want to try and turn them into upstanders in terms of securing a positive outcome to tackling hate crime. I do hope that, across the Chamber, we can get some understanding of how Hate Hurts Wales.

We've actually increased the Hate Hurts Wales budget by more than 80 per cent in 2025-26, this year, to ensure victims learn about the support available, particularly in the context of increasing hateful rhetoric. This is what's changing, isn't it, this increasing hateful rhetoric. Can I just say, at this point, if you have been a victim of hate crime, you can call the Welsh Government's Wales Hate support centre, run by Victim Support—free, confidential, 24 hours a day, 365 days, visit: Hate.CrimeWales@victimsupport.org.uk

It is important, although the powers of policing isn't devolved to us yet in Wales, we would like policing to be devolved, but we work very closely with our police forces in Wales. I chair the partnership policing board, and what's interesting is that we're working with our police partners in Wales to develop a collaborative hate crime perpetrators pilot, and this would aim to find alternative out-of-court approaches for resolving hate crimes. That can be important when it's appropriate, if it's the will of the victim and the perpetrator has shown contrition, because we actually have got to change culture here, haven't we? This kind of initiative, I think, is important in our communities, and we're going to begin that pilot in this financial year.

I just want to focus on issues—and you've raised it—about hate crime, the rise of religious hate crime, because—. Can I say again—and it's important that we share this across this Chamber—that we stand with the Jewish and Muslim 

Jewish and Muslim communities, particularly at this time? We condemn the vile hatred expressed by individuals who create a climate of fear in aim to fragment our communities. I think this is really important. I did a statement after the terrorist attack on the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester: a vile and cowardly betrayal of shared values. Working together and talking to our Jewish community through our faith communities forum as well. But also then recognising that there were attacks on mosques, and my officials met with all the Imams last week from all the mosques. I spoke to the Muslim Council of Wales. We need to make sure that places of worship are important, where there's peace and mutual respect, and I do want to thank members of the faith communities forum for their support and the way that they engage and help towards the aims that we all have for Wales to be a nation of respect, and understand community cohesion.

Finally, I just want to say we have provided a 25 per cent funding uplift to our community cohesion programme. I know this was one of the recommendations from the Equality and Social Justice Committee because, actually, the programme, our community cohesion programme, and our co-ordinators were actually recognised by some of the think tanks that were working on the UK cohesion think tank after Southport, after the riots report. They saw that the UK Government could learn from our community cohesion programme. So, we're increasing the support, but extending it to 2029. We're taking it to £1.6 million across eight local government regional teams, and I do encourage Members to meet with their community cohesion colleagues across Wales.

Yes, I'm sure that the Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government has heard the question about the progress with the commission on community assets. We look forward to and anticipate—and hopefully quite soon—a response to that. Can I thank the committee for having such a thoughtful and wide-ranging inquiry on hate, on social cohesion, which of course is so relevant to the Hate Hurts Wales campaign?

Thank you very much for the statement, Cabinet Secretary. I am pleased that you have responded so positively to the report from the committee, and particularly immediately accepting the recommendation to set up an expert group. I am very pleased that Gaynor Legall is going to be the chair, because we know that she has a great track record in this field. I know Sioned asked you had you thought any more about the composition of the group. So, I don't know if you have got anything more to say about that.

Lunch time, we had a well-attended meeting of the Gypsy and Traveller group with Sioned, and we're very pleased that Jayne Bryant was there as the Minister for housing. Anti-Gypsyism is considered an acceptable form of discrimination, and Gypsies and Travellers regularly experience hate crime. In a report published in 2023, 62 per cent of Gypsy, Roma and Travellers had experienced a racial assault. However, police forces do not consistently record reports for Gypsies, Roma and Travellers, which hides the full extent of hate crime against this vulnerable group. Discrimination is so long-standing and so ingrained against the Gypsy community that it's not surprising that they hesitate to report any crimes, because their whole experience of society and acceptance is so negative. Certainly, in the cross-party group, we have heard that over the years, the deep prejudice that exists against Gypsies and Travellers.

So, we have sections of our communities here in Wales living in fear, and that is not the Wales we want, and I know it is not the Wales the Government want. What more can the Government do 

Government do to help particular groups, such as Gypsies and Travellers?

Thank you very much, Julie Morgan, and thank you again for sharing that really important feedback from the cross-party group on Gypsies and Travellers. I'm so glad that you've reconvened that group. It's very powerful, and it means that we're learning from Gypsies and Travellers about what it is like to live and to be a Gypsy, Roma and Traveller person in Wales. That's going to help us, in terms of responding to the recommendations. I'm just thinking that this is very key to the work that's been done by the Local Government and Housing Committee and, indeed, the Equality and Social Justice Committee, and it’s reflected in our 'Anti-racist Wales Action Plan'. The refreshed version has got a focus on justice for Gypsy, Roma and Traveller people. It's about their rights, their entitlements and respect, recognising that hate crimes against Gypsies and Travellers are often underreported and unjustly not recognised in the same way by members of the public. Perhaps we can share with the cross-party group, with those who attended it, the details about the Wales Hate Support Centre, because Gypsies and Travellers should be able to expect the same level of care, support and attention.

I think also I can say, just back to the point—. I'm sorry, I didn't respond fully to Sioned Williams. The expert group, we will very much look at the interests that you've identified in the committee's report and recommendations as being relevant for membership of this expert group. We already have a hate crime awareness panel, which again actually very much reflects those groups. This has had to be set up because of the increase in hate crime, but very much reaches out to all those who are affected—lived experience, as well as those with statutory responsibility as well. Thank you again for drawing attention to this as part of just the learning and understanding of the lives of Gypsies and Travellers in Wales.

Thank you for your thoughtful and focused statement, Cabinet Secretary, and the speed with which you have responded to the first recommendation of the committee, which only reported four working days ago. I'm sure you get the prize for response on that front.

I think that the budget for community co-ordinators, being secured until 2029, is very important and reflects, I think, everybody's understanding that we are in a very, very difficult situation at the moment, and it can only get worse as we move towards a highly contested election next May. I think the conversation I'm sure many of us had with a senior policeman today tells us that this is not going to be easy.

Earlier today, I rushed out to meet a lobby, on the Senedd steps, of people who are in receipt of personal independence payments, because they feel very concerned that this money could be taken away from them, and this could materially impair their ability to work or live their lives as well as possible. Clearly, this is one of the organisations we really do need to ensure that we are negotiated with, respectfully, and involved in the review that Stephen Timms is taking out.

I just wanted to pick up on your point about perpetrators needing to understand the consequences of their actions, and link to that the upstanders, because one of my constituents used to be involved in restorative justice in our prisons, taking victims to the prison and meeting the perpetrator. And I think that is so beneficial, both to the victim and to enabling the perpetrator to understand just how devastating this act has been. So, this was cancelled when the new UK Government came in, so they're no longer doing it. So, I just wondered if you might have had any conversations on doing this sort of thing again, because it could be done, despite the fact that it isn't currently a devolved responsibility.

despite the fact that it isn't currently a devolved responsibility.

Thank you very much, Jenny Rathbone, and thank you, again, as I've said, for the excellent work that you've undertaken chairing the committee—a very helpful contribution to our work on cohesion in Wales, as you know. This doesn't often happen, but we felt that we had to respond immediately, not waiting for consideration, to that recommendation 1 with the expert group on cohesion. I've talked about that already. But just to say, the other thing to help us, because we want to do as much as we can before the end of this Senedd term, before the end of March, is we're engaging with the Wales Centre for Public Policy to help us with this, because you've provided evidence and we want to draw on their expertise as well, including the evidence submitted to the committee. But also, we've just got to recognise that this—back to what I said in my statement—is about Wales being a Wales of cohesive communities, and the Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 and the fact that, in our tenth year, this is something that I hope and believe that the future generations commissioner will also be taking an interest in.

You're right to say that this is an issue for disabled people, and in fact, the Wales Hate Support Centre, at their events that they organised this week, and who I spoke to, were focusing on the fact of disability hate crime and that, actually, just in terms of the latest, 12 per cent was disability hate crime in terms of the four Welsh police force area statistics. This is something we've been addressing in our disability rights taskforce, and it will be very much reflected in our disabled people's rights plan, and I have obviously made representations about, as you know, the review of PIP, personal independence payments. I've also asked for Welsh representation, as I know that disabled people in Wales have asked for, and I'm certainly responding to that call and have raised this, as indeed has, I have to say, the Minister, Stephen Timms, who actually met with the Disability Equality Forum in Wales and heard that message very strongly as well.

On your point about restorative justice, I hope that perhaps we can build on the pilot that we're developing that I mentioned earlier on, the collaborative hate crime perpetrators pilot. But I will take the opportunity to ask the question about the former work that was done on restorative justice with the Home Secretary and also all our colleagues in terms of criminal justice partners in the UK Government, as well as with our policing colleagues as well. I think those are also useful points that the expert group could look at as well.

Our role as politicians, surely, is to bring people together, to listen, to lead with empathy and to rebuild trust where it has been lost. Democracy should unite people around shared values of respect, fairness and community, not drive them apart.

The online hate and misinformation is increasing. Many of us are targets of that and the political language that we use is absolutely critical in this world. Many of you will know that I'm supporting the Member accountability Bill and the deception element of that going through. That came out of the riots following the tragic killing of the three young girls in Southport, and the misinformation that was generated from that was started by people in the political world. We have a responsibility in this Siambr.

I'm proud to support the nation of sanctuary and I'm saddened by some of the comments that have been made about it. I'm also very proud to support many of those charities who work so hard to ensure that many in our community are supported and looked after. Yesterday, 150 charities nationally wrote to the Prime Minister asking for his help in standing up to the right-wing hatred that was being targeted against them, leading to increased security and fears for their safety.

fears for their safety. So, I'd like to ask you how are you working with the charities here in Wales in order to ensure their safety and in order to ensure that we, as a Siambr, are able to give them our full support in the work that they do. Diolch yn fawr iawn. 

Diolch yn fawr, Jane Dodds, and thank you for the very powerful statement that you've made today and, indeed, that you made in support of our nation of sanctuary. We have got to stand up and speak out and unite. I think the issues around online hate and misinformation, as I said, continue to increase. We haven’t actually mentioned today very much in terms of our statement the impact that this can have on children. And I do want to just say again that we’ve got the 'Keeping safe online' Hwb service, with extensive information and guidance for children and young people, helping them to think critically and use technology responsibly. I think we do look to our children and young people to take this forward. Rights, respect and equality is actually what our anti-bullying guidance for schools is, and that is what you were saying we should all be calling for today. At the start of this term, we wrote to all directors of education to highlight the rising tensions and hostility linked to conflicts, harmful online narratives, and that went to all our schools. It is very important that we address all of these issues.

In terms of the voluntary sector, those who have been targeted, we are working with the Wales Council for Voluntary Action, county voluntary councils to help third sector organisations explore the actions they could take to minimise risks without compromising their charitable aims. But we stand by them, we stand with them, and I'll also say that I think we stand by and with all of those schools of sanctuary, universities of sanctuary, towns of sanctuary, counties of sanctuary across Wales, because I think that reflects what the majority of people in Wales believe. Our national survey, finally, asks people what they feel about a sense of belonging in their area, whether they feel people from different backgrounds get on well together in their local area, whether people treat each other with respect. The vast majority of people suggest that Wales is a largely cohesive and inclusive place to live, and it’s largely cohesive and inclusive because it is diverse and because we have this great commitment to being, in Wales, a cohesive nation.

I do believe these are very important matters, Cabinet Secretary. Members of our communities here in Wales have the right to live their lives with good community relations, not to experience hostility and hate. I very much agree with you about the nation of sanctuary and everyone in Wales and all the organisations in Wales that are part of making that a reality. I very much agree with Jane Dodds that, obviously, politicians and Senedd Members have a responsibility to be very careful about what they say and, indeed, what they post on social media, given the fevered atmosphere and sometimes poisonous atmosphere that surrounds political debate about these matters at the current time. That can, sadly, only get worse in the run-up to next May's election here in Wales. Sadly, Senedd Members are not always showing responsibility in these matters.

I do think it is a sad state of affairs, Cabinet Secretary, when a school makes a video to encourage refugees to come to Wales, demonstrating their own awareness of these matters, their own responsibility and their own empathy for vulnerable sections of our community, and because the Welsh Refugee Council shares that video, the Welsh Refugee Council is then attacked and hindered in its ability to perform its very important duties and deliver its services. That is a very sad state of affairs, Cabinet Secretary, and I’m sure you would agree with me on that. It just emphasises the need for Members of this Senedd to be very responsible and careful not to distort

responsible and careful not to distort and misinform for perceived political advantage.

Thank you very much, John Griffiths. I am agreeing with you and knowing and being very proud that we fund the Welsh Refugee Council. We fund them to ensure that people are helped and integrated into our communities and society. That may be housing, it may be language, it may be care and support.

I do also just want to say that we must remember that diversity is a cross-cutting theme within the new Curriculum for Wales. It is mandatory to teach black, Asian and ethnic minority histories, contributions and experiences, including those of Gypsy, Roma and Traveller communities, as part of the story of Wales. This has been made explicit in our Curriculum for Wales guidance. It's good for me to put that on the record. Again, we were so proud when we got that through that it was mandatory in terms of that teaching in Wales, and the Curriculum for Wales has been designed to inspire children and young people to become ethical, informed citizens. They're going to teach us a lot, aren't they? I said the other day, perhaps we should go back to school to benefit from this curriculum, helping our children to understand and respect their own and each other's cultures and traditions. We, of course, were the first nation in the UK to make it mandatory to teach black, Asian, and minority ethnic histories and experiences, and everyone who walks past the Betty Campbell statue in the centre of Cardiff will remember that she was the first black head teacher in Wales who called for this.

Finally, Llywydd, if you could let me just say that I met with some young people yesterday. The police and crime commissioner, Emma Wools, was developing a plan which engages children and young people in terms of community cohesion. They had created a little song, and it says, 'Youth outreach, let's spread it wide / Give us a chance, let our voices rise / a fear of violence will break the silence / We can make a change with a little guidance / And help us, please give us an opportunity / We are also part of your community.'

And that came from a wonderful, diverse group of young people in Wales who are influencing our police and crime commissioner plans as well.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary.

The next item is item 6, the Town and Country Planning (Fees for Applications, Deemed Applications and Site Visits) (Wales) (Amendment) Regulations 2025, and I call on the Minister for Culture, Skills and Social Partnership to move the motion, Jack Sargeant.

Diolch, Llywydd. I'm pleased to present to the Senedd this afternoon the Town and Country Planning (Fees for Applications, Deemed Applications and Site Visits) (Wales) (Amendment) Regulations 2025 for approval.

Llywydd, a resilient and high-performing planning service is crucial for our nation's prosperity and inclusivity. However, local authority planning services face significant resource challenges with fee income covering only around 60 per cent of the total costs. Previous fee increases have been implemented through new legislation and based on a general percentage increase rather than the actual cost of processing applications. This approach has proved to be irregular and inflexible, moving local planning authorities further away from full cost recovery. The previous way of doing things is no longer sustainable and a new approach is required. Llywydd, these regulations will address this deficit by providing a fair, an effective, and an efficient system for updating and publicising fees. Welsh Ministers must publish a fee document detailing the amount of fees payable and the method and timing of fee increases.

The new fee structure has received wide-ranging support and will take effect from 1 December. Fees will initially be increased by an average of 50 per cent for most applications and the majority will achieve full cost recovery in three to five years. Llywydd, this is about making sure our planning departments are resourced properly to play their part in economic growth. The alternative would save applicants relatively small amounts, whilst properly resourcing planning departments could save large projects millions, and making them viable.

I do want to thank, Llywydd, the Legislation, Justice and Constitution Committee for their report.

for their report. The Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning has responded and will amend the regulations based on their report before implementation. I ask the Senedd to approve these regulations. Diolch.

I therefore call on the Chair of the Legislation, Justice and Constitution Committee, Mike Hedges.

Diolch, Llywydd. The Legislation, Justice and Constitution Committee considered these draft regulations a fortnight ago, and we considered the Welsh Government’s response to the committee’s report last week. The committee’s report contains five technical reporting points and two merits scrutiny reporting points.

Three of the technical reporting points relate to potential defective drafting. Of those, the committee has identified two instances where the incorrect division was used in the text of the regulations, and one occasion where the committee believes that an inconsistency in the Welsh text means that the amendment does not achieve its intended effect. 

The other two technical reporting points relate to inconsistencies between the meaning of the English and Welsh texts. In the first case, reporting point 2, there is additional provision in the Welsh text that does not appear in the English text. In the second case, reporting point 5, the English text replaces the existing 2.5 hectares with a new reference to 1.2 hectares. However, the Welsh text replaces the existing 2.5 hectares with 1.5 hectares.

In the main, the Welsh Government has accepted the technical reporting points, and has said it will make the minor corrections prior to making the regulations. I invite the Minister to clarify in his closing remarks what assessment was made by the Welsh Government to determine that remedying the error as regards the hectares figure was deemed to be an appropriate use of the correction prior to making process.

Both of the merit points highlighted by the Legislation, Justice and Constitution Committee relate to areas that may be of political or legal importance, or may otherwise be of interest to the Senedd. In particular, the committee’s final reporting point highlights that the Welsh Government’s policy intention is to implement a gradual rise in the cost of planning fees over a three to five-year period, progressing toward a goal of so-called 'full cost recovery', where the fees charged to applicants fully cover the expenses incurred by a local authority.

Because of the significant pressures facing local government, Plaid Cymru supports the principle of closing the gap between the costs of determining decisions and the income received for providing those planning services, and we also agree that this change should be introduced gradually. But we do need assurances that this will lead to more sustainable and resilient planning services, and that will hasten the process of dealing with planning applications, including those for social housing. This is crucial if we're to resolve the housing crisis that is affecting so many families in Wales now.

We also need to be alive to the potential impact of the change on small construction companies and on the rural areas of our country, and we need to consider whether we need to put mitigation measures in place. Perhaps the Minister could respond to those two specific points in his response to the debate. Thank you.

The Minister to respond. Jack Sargeant.

I'm grateful, Presiding Officer, to both the Chair of the legislation committee and to Siân Gwenllian for their comments. Just on the committee, Presiding Officer, I believe the Cabinet Secretary has replied to the points the Member makes and will make those changes to the regulations before implementing, and I think that's a positive response to the committee.

On Siân Gwenllian's points, I'm pleased Plaid Cymru are supportive of the approach to do more in this space. This is all about, as I said earlier, making sure planning departments in our local authorities are properly resourced to be able to make those swift and timely decisions that we all want to see. I heard the leader of the opposition this afternoon talk about the economic importance of planning and, in particular, house building. That's something the Cabinet Secretary for housing works on every single day.

I think it doesn't matter whether you're a major developer or a small or medium enterprise or indeed a house owner yourself, timely decisions from properly resourced planning departments go some way in supporting these proposals and achieving full cost recovery in this way with the pathway over three to five years for the majority of applications and, indeed, then the full cost recovery of some in the immediate term from 1 December will go some way in making sure that planning authorities are properly resourced to be able to make those decisions.

to be able to make those decisions. And I think that will support the sector, both for house building and wider economic growth.

Llywydd, these regulations implement a fair and effective system for updating and publishing fees. The legislation will enable the Government to address the existing deficit between the cost of determining applications and the income received for providing this service, allowing planning services across Cymru to be improved. I do ask the Senedd to approve the Town and Country Planning (Fees for Applications, Deemed Applications and Site Visits) (Wales) (Amendment) Regulations 2025. Diolch.

The proposal is to agree the motion. Does any Member object? No. The motion is therefore agreed.

Item 7 is next, the National Health Service (Concerns, Complaints and Redress Arrangements) (Wales) (Amendments) Regulations 2025. I call on the Cabinet Secretary for health to move the motion—Jeremy Miles.

Thank you, Llywydd. I'm pleased to introduce these regulations that will strengthen the current complaints system within the NHS significantly.

'Working to improve' was introduced into the NHS in Wales almost 15 years ago to ensure that people's concerns and complaints were investigated properly and that lessons are learned when mistakes are made. This was an ambitious step for Wales to take at the time, and no other part of the UK had adopted such a proactive system in terms of redress. But we do know that Working to Improve hasn't worked for everyone, and almost 15 years later, the system that was planned on the basis of the principles of openness and transparency has let too many people down. We have heard of too many examples of a system that is too bureaucratic, which has added, often, to the pain and grief of people; a system that can lack empathy. I'd like to thank the many people who responded to the consultation and shared their personal experiences. I apologise to everyone who didn't get the services that they could expect from the NHS and were let down, however, by raising your voice, you have helped to change the culture in terms of how NHS complaints are dealt with to create a system that is far more open and supportive.

The regulations before us today introduce changes to the two-step complaint resolution system, which is based on listening and acting and inquiring, learning and taking action. The first step focuses on making resolution within a period of 10 working days. And the second stage assesses accountability and whether redress should be offered.

The changes to the process, Llywydd, include a mandatory offer of a listening discussion where NHS organisations will take on board the experience of the individual raising a concern or complaint. There will be clear and compassionate communication throughout. If any complex legal or medical terminology is used, it will be properly explained. Complainants will be actively offered advocacy and legal support, and there will be a mandatory check that the concern has been resolved within the time frames set out in the regulations. 

Llywydd, four principles underpin this updated process. First, people raising concerns will be actively listened to and treated with respect, compassion and courtesy, and their rights and options will be explained in a way they can understand. Secondly, concerns will be investigated proportionately and effectively. Complainants will be kept updated about time frames, including progress and any delays. The result will be shared in easy-to-understand language. NHS organisations, thirdly, have a duty to learn from complaints and to work to prevent a recurrence and share the actions taken with complainants. And lastly, leaders of NHS organisations must provide assurance that they are meeting regulatory requirements and provide evidence of the learning undertaken.

NHS Wales performance and improvement will lead the implementation of the new system and the Public Services Ombudsman for Wales and Llais will have a role in holding the new system to account. Llywydd, we are increasing the redress threshold to £50,000, which will mean that fewer people have to resort to costly litigation to claim damages. Reimbursement for claimants' solicitors will be based on the UK government's research into fixed recoverable costs for low-value clinical negligence claims