Y Cyfarfod Llawn - Y Bumed Senedd

Plenary - Fifth Senedd

15/01/2020

The Assembly met at 13:30 with the Llywydd (Elin Jones) in the Chair.

Statement by the Llywydd

Before we move to questions, I would like to inform the Assembly, or the Senedd, that, in accordance with Standing Order 26.75, the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Bill was given Royal Assent today. 

1. Questions to the Minister for Education

And our first item is questions to the Minister for Education, and the first question is from Suzy Davies.

Additional Learning Needs

1. Will the Minister provide an update on funding for additional learning needs? OAQ54913

Local authorities are responsible for providing suitable provision for all learners, including those with special educational needs, and funding is allocated to local authorities via the revenue support grant. I have also made available £20 million to support the wider ALN transformation programme. 

Thank you for that answer, and, of course, to be fair, in committee last week, you spoke to us about that pot of funding for helping local authorities and educators prepare for the requirements of the additional learning needs Act. And in the draft budget, you've committed £9 million to two other areas of expenditure, including helping councils deal with the present situation on providing additional learning needs support. And, yet, we do know that, as a result of the UK Government's spending round, the consequential to the Welsh block from its budget allocation to special educational needs and additional learning needs is £35 million. So, I'm not talking about the £700 million headlined by the Secretary of State for Education, which we'll all watch out for, but the £35 million from the spending round. You prioritise your spending, I do know that, but I can't believe that our need for investment in SEN and ALN is so much less than in England. Why haven't you spent £35 million on SEN and ALN?

Well, as I said to the Member in answering her initial question, the vast majority of school costs are met out of the revenue support grant. The Member will be aware that the Government has been able to give a significant increase to local authorities this year. The addition to the local government settlement and other new funding for schools and social care totals £220 million for 2020-21, and this is more than we received in the spending round in relation to additional schools and social care funding from England. The extra funding for additional learning needs in England is included in the overall school increases, so we have been able to ensure additional money for the RSG. I'm aware of specific pressures within the ALN community, and that's why we will complement the increase in the RSG with an additional £8 million from my own budget and in excess of £1 million to support specialist placements for the children with the most profound needs for post-16 study. 

Minister, I appreciate very much the extra money you've put in. I have a constituent who has got a child who needs that type of support, but unfortunately is not getting it because the diagnosis has not been identified yet. But I also appreciate the £20 million you're giving to the ALN preparations for the Bill being enacted in 2021. Local authorities, therefore, will look very carefully at the additional money, to deliver on the expected increase in requirements that they'll have to meet as a consequence of those changes. Now, as I said, I have a constituent whose child, probably in 18 months' time, would actually get the support, because the requirements are changing, from not just a diagnosis to actually the needs of a child. As a consequence, they will have that support. But councils need money to deliver it. Will you be looking to increase the funding to local authorities in future budgets to ensure that—when this change comes in, when there's an increase, and there is going to be an increase in demand—that increase will be met and those children will get the support they need?

Thank you, David, for that question. There are two very important points here. Firstly, my expectation is that every single local education authority in Wales meets the needs of children under current legislation, and there should be no excuse for those needs not being met in anticipation of the introduction of the new ALN Bill. There are protections and rights for those children now, and local authorities should be meeting them. Although, I do have to say, expenditure on SEN in schools by local authorities for this current financial year is budgeted to be in the region of £405 million, which is a 6.1 per cent increase on the year before. So, local authorities are investing in the education of these children.

With regard to the introduction of the Act, you'll be aware that, as I said in answer to Suzy Davies, £20 million has been provided to support that implementation, specifically on the professional learning needs of staff and local education authorities to ensure that that legislation is a success. There will be further financial information available to Members when we publish the statutory code that will underpin that legislation later this year.

13:35

The Minister was kind enough to spend some time yesterday in my constituency meeting with ALN teachers, and I was very grateful to the Minister for both the time she spent talking with those people but also the conversation that took place, which I thought was beneficial for everybody. The teachers there, Minister, were very clear that, in order to deliver the vision, which I think is shared on all sides of this Chamber, they need the resources, the time and the support to be able to get these things right.

Can you give us an undertaking today, Minister, that you will seek to put together this package? Because the legislation was, of course, a part of a transformation programme and not the totality of it. And in delivering the code, when you're able to do so, we will be transforming the experience of education for children and young people with those additional learning needs. 

Firstly, can I thank the Member for facilitating that meeting yesterday, and for the efforts of the teachers that I did meet yesterday for the work that they do, day in, day out, in our schools, and the individual who actually looks to co-ordinate the approaches to ALN across the region? It was indeed useful to me to receive their feedback. They were very loud and clear that they do not need any further training on the elements of the new legislation, but now need some training in the practical day-to-day responsibilities of doing that job.

I was also very interested to hear the different approaches as to the status of additional learning needs co-ordinators in school management structures, some of them feeling perhaps that not due weight is given by senior management teams to the needs of that particular role. So, there were very useful discussions, which I will pursue with my officials and will feed back to the Member so that he can feed back to those members of staff who I was very grateful to meet yesterday. 

The Holiday Hunger Playworks Pilot

2. Will the Minister make a statement on the Holiday Hunger Playworks Pilot? OAQ54910

Over the summer and autumn, we piloted a number of approaches to tackling the issue of holiday hunger, including working with play and community-based settings across Wales through our playworks pilot. The evaluation findings will inform thinking about wider provision next year.

I'm really pleased to say that we are carrying out this scheme, and it is helping children from low-income families, but I'm sure people would share my distress that hundreds of families—both those in work and receiving benefits, and those relying solely on benefit incomes—feel that they have to depend on such schemes to feed their children during school holidays. It is a mark of 10 years of austerity, and the changes to benefits and entitlements from the Tory Government that have hit families with very little income the hardest. So, we recognise also that must be immensely stressful for the parents and the families to find themselves in these positions of need.

You have said that you are going to evaluate, moving forward, and my question to you, Minister, is: once you have that evaluation and are moving forward with that pilot, is it your intention then to widen the access to those who aren't currently in the pilot and to continue access for those who are?

Well, Joyce, the reasons why families and children suffer from holiday hunger are ones that are, in many cases, often beyond our control. But I think it is absolutely right that the Welsh Government looks to take action to alleviate the consequences of decisions that are taken elsewhere. In total, the Holiday Hunger Playworks pilot had 92 open-access-play sites and six out-of-school sites. They delivered some 13,000 meals, which just shows you the scale of that particular programme.

It is important that we remember that that is just one part of our attempts to tackle and to alleviate the problem of holiday hunger. It sits alongside our traditional school holiday enrichment programme; our food and fun programme that is delivered via a school setting. And I am pleased to say that, in the new financial year, we have earmarked £1 million funding for the playworks pilots, and we will be increasing the Welsh Government's budget for the food and fun SHEP to £2.7 million. That will allow us to provide 100 per cent of the cost of that programme, which in past years has been partly funded by Welsh Government and partly funded by local authorities. But we will be able to expand that programme and we believe that, potentially, it will reach some 7,600 children this summer.

13:40

I welcome this pilot and I welcome the information that you've just given us that more children are likely to benefit from this. I recognise also that budgets are tight and, with the Tories in power in Westminster, there's little prospect of our situation improving for some years.

So, I wonder what consideration you've given to tapping into the vast excess of food that's generated by supermarkets on a daily basis. Could using that excess make this scheme cheaper? My office has been collecting and distributing food from a small number of supermarkets. It's perfectly good produce and it would have been destined for the bin, mainly due to its short shelf life. We don't have any qualification—there's no benefits eligibility to accessing this food—and as a result we've had more than 6,000 visits from people for free food, just over the last six months. So, can you consider utilising the waste from supermarkets to enable more children to be fed during school holiday times?

Thank you, Leanne, for that, and thank you for your own personal efforts. It is mirrored by efforts by politicians who sit in this Chamber, and outside this Chamber, in a range of political parties who look to take practical action in this regard. We don't actually run those programmes. We make the finance available for our partners in local government and our third sector organisations to be able to, on the ground, deliver.

But I'm more than happy for officials to ask our partners whether they could encourage and look at the proposal that you've just put forward. We're always looking for new partners to help ensure that not just the food on offer but also the range of activities—because that's an important part of the programme as well, the range of activities—on offer are meaningful, exciting and attractive to children. 

So, recently I met with the Welsh Rugby Union. The WRU are looking to do some summer provision and, rather than simply set that up as a solo programme, they are now in discussion with us about how we can put them in touch with local authorities so that they can work alongside our programme, rather than duplicating efforts.

So, we're always looking for new partners to work alongside local authorities and third sector organisations to make those experiences for children meaningful, not just in terms of nourishment, but also activities that can address issues around anti-social behaviour or loneliness and isolation or learning loss during the summer holidays.

Questions Without Notice from Party Spokespeople

Questions now from party spokespeople. The Conservative spokesperson, Suzy Davies.

Diolch, Llywydd. Minister, I have to say I was very pleased when you amended the guidance, to be followed by local authorities primarily, requiring them to take additional steps before they made a decision on closing small, rural schools. And while that didn't capture all small schools, it was a statement of recognition of the place in the community of small, rural schools and their contribution to standards, and of course the negative consequences of having young children being ferried across large distances, and in some cases of course the negative effect on Welsh as a community language.

But small schools are more expensive, per head, to run, and to assist with this you've offered, from the centre, a yearly grant of £2.5 million to be allocated annually from April 2017 to support greater school-to-school working in rural areas. It's an annual grant, but I wonder if you can tell me where I might find it in the draft budget for 2020-21, and what use it's been put to since its introduction.

Can I thank the Member for the recognition of the important role that small schools play in our education system? On coming into office, I made a pledge to reform the school organisation code to include a presumption against closure, and I am very pleased that we have been able to do that. 

The Member is right, we have a small and rural schools grant, which is there to support the education of children in small and rural schools and to ensure that it is as good as it should be. There are some particular challenges to delivering small and rural schools: teachers being asked to teach over a wide range of age groups, for instance, and the ability to differentiate, as well as headteachers who are managing classroom teaching responsibilities as well as managerial responsibilities.

The amount of money available in the new financial year for the small and rural schools grant continues at the same level and will be available. Local authorities bid for that money and they have used it in a variety of ways to support planning, preparation and assessment time for headteachers and the employment of additional support within those schools, or, in one particular case I'm aware of, being able to make sure that that school is part of a wider pedagogical sharing network to ensure that teaching is as good as it could be when, sometimes, schools don't have specific expertise in an individual subject. 

13:45

Thank you very much for that answer. Obviously, I'm extremely pleased to hear that it is in the budget somewhere and that the use it's being put to is the use for which it was intended. Although local authorities, as we know, are largely responsible for school funding, schools are undoubtedly affected by decisions you make on the education budget. Over the course of this Assembly, you're making available £36 million to reduce infant class sizes, targeted at those most adversely affected by deprivation, but, within its clear limits, it's open, I think, to quite a lot of schools—many schools. Have you any indication of how many rural schools are in receipt of the money to reduce infant class sizes?

The £36 million that has been made available over the course of this Parliament to support smaller class sizes is made up of both a revenue and a capital element. The Member is right: one of the criteria for a successful application is a high percentage of children who are entitled to free school meals. But, we also support schools where, perhaps, standards are not what they need to be and they need to improve, and we also look at schools where there is a high percentage of children for whom Welsh or English is not their first language. We choose those categories because we know that that's where the money will make a difference.

The bids come in from local authorities. So, the local authorities themselves prioritise which schools they wish to support—they are a variety of schools across all of our local authorities—and I'm happy to provide the Member with a list of every school that has been in receipt of both the revenue and the capital element. 

Thank you for that answer. I understood that the targeting was at areas of deprivation, but it seemed that, in the way that it's been crafted, it was able to have a slightly wider remit than, perhaps, the pupil deprivation grant.

This £36 million, though—you'll have seen it in the press this week—has already prompted some questions about its value for money in terms of its outcomes. You've also heard that schools are worried that maintaining the levels of employment of all of these new staff, and actually populating the new rooms that this £36 million may have bought, may be pretty difficult when this class-size funding commitment comes to an end.

Some of those schools that have used this money will also be eligible for a considerable amount of pupil development grant income, but, of course, not all of them. So, firstly, can you tell me whether you're expecting the extra PDG that you've announced for infant-age children just this week to pick up the cost of this activity from 2020-21, which would soak up any rise in that budget line?

Secondly, what do you say to rural schools that may have made that investment in staff and buildings to reduce infant class sizes, but don't have access to high levels of PDG, which also supports the sustainability of schools in terms of staffing numbers, whose provision of SEN support, which goes back to my first question today, is doubly difficult due to sparsity and therefore, they can't tackle the effects of poverty in the way that they would like and, presumably, in the way that you would like?

Some schools in my region really do quite well through the central education budget, but my rural schools do not. And I can only imagine what this looks like in your own overwhelmingly rural constituency. 

Well, in my own constituency, I'm absolutely delighted that the cutting-class-sizes grant is providing for an additional classroom teacher at Trefonnen primary school in Llandrindod Wells, and it is providing a dedicated Welsh-medium early years centre in the Ystradgynlais and Swansea valley area. So, I'm very delighted, in my own constituency, with the impact that it is making.

But, let's be clear, in this academic year, some 95 extra teachers will be employed as a result of that grant; some 40 additional teaching assistants will be employed as a result of that grant; and, with regard to its sustainability, that grant will exist as long as I am the education Minister and through to the end of this Parliament. As for a future Parliament, I would hope that the evidence that has been received from parents and teachers of how valuable this grant is will inform a future Government of its important continuation.

Diolch. As far as I'm aware, this is my last session scrutinising before I go on maternity leave, all being well, so whoever's taking over from me, I wish them all the very best. Erasmus is the core of our students' opportunities to study abroad and without it, as we said yesterday, thousands of students would not have the opportunity to have travelled and to have experienced that abroad. It surprises me that the Tories, who claim to be aspirational, would even consider or hint at the possibility of taking us out of Erasmus next year. If the UK Government doesn't participate in the successor programme or complete negotiations on education partnerships quickly enough with the EU, our participation could be compromised and thousands of students, especially from lower income backgrounds, as Lynne Neagle said yesterday, will be denied any of those life chances.

Does it concern you as Minister that, in rejecting the amendment to continue to take part in Erasmus+ successor programmes last week in the House of Commons, and the UK Government seemingly not so sure what they're going to do with the future negotiations in this regard, that this is the UK Parliament—UK Government, sorry—playing ideological politics with the future of higher education? Would it not lead to more uncertainty for universities and colleges here in Wales after years of uncertainty anyway with Brexit hanging over us? 

13:50

Presiding Officer, I'm sure I speak on behalf of all of the Chamber in expressing my best wishes for Bethan as she begins a period of maternity leave. If I could offer just a little advice in this regard, don't be in too much of a rush to get back. [Laughter.] And I say that for purely, purely unselfish reasons. Bethan, you are about to embark on the toughest job that you will ever do, and in some ways, coming back to this Chamber will be a rest, I can assure you. [Laughter.] But I just want to wish you and your husband all the best on this wonderful, wonderful journey that you are about to embark on. 

It's so timely that Bethan raises this question this afternoon, because I understand, Presiding Officer, in the gallery above us today are a number of participants from an Erasmus programme—teachers who, as part of that programme, are able to work internationally to develop skills and understanding and to strengthen each other's education system. That valuable work is in danger of being lost if we don't get decisions around continued participation in the Erasmus+ programme right.

As we rehearsed in the Chamber yesterday, there is no reason why leaving the European Union is incompatible with our ongoing continuation as full partners in that particular programme, across the entire range of that programme, which supports educational exchanges for practitioners, for those in higher education, for those in further education, for our schools and for those in our youth clubs and our youth services. Wales has disproportionately benefited and has been highly successful in drawing on those Erasmus+ funds to expand the life opportunities for a whole range of children and young people and professionals, and that, potentially, is at risk.

Now, it is true to say that the vote this week does not preclude us from an ongoing negotiation, and I have used every opportunity that I have had and will continue to have to persuade Chris Skidmore and, in particular, the Treasury, of the real value of that money. And sometimes, politicians and civil servants need to be reminded that we can know the cost of everything and sometimes miss the value of some things, and Erasmus+ is an example of where the value that is appreciated is so much more than the financial sums that are invested.   

Thank you. Just to pick up on your first point about maternity leave, I'm sure that there will be lots of people who are pleased that I won't be rushing back. [Laughter.] 

In terms of worst-case scenarios, I asked the First Minister yesterday, which you were here for, in terms of contingencies that can be made, specifically in terms of the possibility of further education and higher education institutions here working directly with European institutions. And so, can you tell me what discussions you've had with EU partners about doing that? I understand that we're not able to go into specific bilateral agreements between the UK and EU on education exchanges, but I suppose we could be looking at our own relationship building with higher education institutions across Europe, as I'm sure we are already doing, but having to do that in a bit more of a pressurised situation to ensure that an Erasmus+ programme would be able to continue. So, can you just give me an idea about what you're doing in that regard, and what contingency planning is in train?

13:55

The Welsh Government and I have a hierarchy of preferences. Our preference is to continue to be able to participate on a UK basis in the full programme of Erasmus+. That is our preferred option, because we believe that there is strength in that brand, it is well understood, and it is aligned to the strategic goals that we would have as a Government. I am aware that the Westminster Government in English counterparts are potentially looking at a UK-wide scheme. That, I believe, is second best as it does not have—as I said—the recognition and the track record of the existing Erasmus scheme. I have had discussions with my Scottish counterpart and representatives of the civil service in Ireland to look at a Celtic scheme if there was no UK scheme available or the English Government was not willing to invest in this particular area. So, we're looking at that as well as having individual institutional conversations where our institutions in Wales are looking to secure partnerships with institutions across Europe. So, as you can see, there's a hierarchy.

My real fear, from discussions that I have had, is that there could well be a replacement scheme on the education side, but I am very, very fearful for FE in particular and youth services in particular and about whether there are any guarantees or any likelihood of a UK Government seeing the value in that. So, I'm less concerned about universities, but I'm very concerned about the wider entirety of the programme. 

Thank you very much for that. That's clear. The issue of Erasmus throws up some other questions in my mind, where we might not agree so much, I think—but I haven't said it yet—related to the wider health of the HE sector. Media reports over the weekend were clear that HE faces some very big challenges. The Vice Chancellor of Cardiff Met said—and I quote—that the talk of the sector was now, 'How big is your deficit?', not if there is a deficit.

I understand that some costs, such as those related to pensions have caused deficits to look larger this year, but it's clear that most institutions are operating in the red and there is also a continuing decline in the number of accepted applicants in Wales and a fall of 17,000 overall applications since 2016. Now, I'm sure you're well aware of the wider economic impact of Welsh universities, and we have rehearsed some of those arguments here over the past few months. It concerns us in Plaid Cymru that half of all Welsh students chose to leave the country to go elsewhere to university. We're not saying that they shouldn't go, but we are concerned that over half decided to go, and we do see that the brain drain from Wales that has happened over decades has not been tackled over previous Governments here in Wales.

So, my question to you, my final question, is: what are you doing differently to ensure that we can turn that around and encourage many more people to stay and to have their education in Wales? And I will say, just to end, it's not about not encouraging people to go elsewhere to study, but we have to acknowledge, for a successful and vibrant HE sector here in Wales, we have to look at how we can retain some of those students here in Wales because that is part and parcel of the issue at the moment.

Well, curriculum, marketing, recruitment and retention of students is a matter for individual institutions and not a matter for the Government. We have delivered, during this Parliament, the fairest, most progressive and sustainable support system, I would argue, anywhere in the United Kingdom, which treats Welsh students very well. But also, I recognise that universities are major employers and vital to our local economy and many of our communities, and that's why we've moved to a more sustainable system of funding and why we will see Higher Education Funding Council for Wales's budget increase in 2020-21 considerably as we deliver on our Diamond reforms. But the courses that individual universities offer and their ability to market and recruit to those courses is rightly a matter for them.

Autism within Schools

3. Will the Minister outline how the Welsh Government is raising awareness of autism within schools? OAQ54924

Thank you, Jayne. I'm committed to ensuring that autistic pupils in schools are effectively supported to overcome any barriers to learning that they may have. Our ambitious additional learning needs reforms will completely overhaul the existing system for supporting learners, and will drive improvements and raise awareness of ALN to ensure all learners achieve their full potential.

Thank you for that answer, Minister. There are around 700,000 adults and children on the autism spectrum in the UK, and if you include their families, autism is part of the daily life of 2.8 million people, yet it's still often misunderstood.

I wanted to take this opportunity to highlight the latest measure that is happening in Gwent to raise awareness and to introduce the Minister and the Chamber to Moli, The Cow Who Moo She Was Different. Moli is autistic and her story is a wonderful new addition to primary schools and libraries across the region. The book aims to highlight the importance of embracing difference and how everyone has their own individual strengths. Launched at Newport's Serennu centre, Moli's story was developed by young people with autism and came about after Newport councillor Paul Cockeram was inspired by The Elephant Who Forgot, a book created by parents to raise awareness of dementia. This is the third book of its kind, with another two in the pipeline. The books are funded through ICF. These soft approaches to teaching children about what are often difficult subjects are simple and beautifully insightful. They're proving to be effective in addressing stigma, and I ask that the Minister look closely at these projects and see how these books could be rolled out so that, eventually, Moli's story can be one that all Welsh children would recognise.

14:00

Well, thank you, Jayne, and thank you for bringing to the attention of the entire Chamber the availability of that resource, and, hopefully, I can have a closer look at it after questions finish. We are working to improve knowledge and awareness of autism amongst not just children, but also all of our professional groups, including those working in education, health and local authority services, as part of our ALN transformation programme. That's included the publication of a guide for practitioners. That guide details effective interventions for learners with autism in education settings. And we are continuing to roll out and develop our learning with autism scheme, with programmes aimed at early years, primary, secondary and FE. That does include the publication and the working up of bilingual resource packages for all of those settings, so that enables us, as I said, to help raise awareness, and I'm sure the book that you've highlighted and Moli the cow will be a useful addition to those resources that schools need to be able to address these important differences that exist within a classroom.

Minister, sport plays an important part in supporting children with autism and their families. However, children with autism are often misunderstood and can find socialising and communication challenging in their communities and in their surroundings. The lack of autism awareness among other children can therefore lead to autistic people being isolated or bullied. Minister, what guidelines has the Welsh Government issued to ensure that our schools take a proactive approach to raising autism awareness to promote greater understanding and tolerance of autism in our classrooms? Thank you.

As I said in answer to Jayne Bryant, we have a pan-Wales programme of raising the autism awareness of the practitioners that are working with children. That includes, as I said, producing guides and training material for them, as well as producing resources that can be used in schools, and, of course, our new curriculum gives us the opportunity, in a variety of ways, but primarily through our health and well-being area of learning and experience, where we can proactively explore difference of all kinds with our children and ensure that they are understanding, empathetic, respectful and knowledgeable about the very diverse communities that they will be growing in and that they will become, hopefully, an ethical, informed citizen of when they leave our school system.

Welsh and English GCSEs

4. Will the Minister make a statement on giving equality to Welsh and English GCSEs in the requirements of universities in Wales? OAQ54914

Student recruitment, as I said earlier, is a matter for individual institutions. However, it is my understanding that universities treat Welsh and English GCSEs equally, although individual courses may have specific entry requirements.

You're right that it's a matter for universities, the detail, but there are important issues of principle here. There's more than one case that's been drawn to my attention. In this specific case, the latest one, a provisional medical student has found out that she won't be accepted on a course because she doesn't have a B grade in English GCSE—she has a C; she has a B in her first language, Welsh. Now, the Welsh Language Commissioner has told us there are a variety of other courses where the entry requirements ask for a C in Welsh or English.

We would ask for an explanation as to why you need a B in English specifically, and why a B in Welsh wouldn't be sufficient.

He makes the point that this is especially true given the need for more primary care workers who have Welsh language skills. The Coleg Cymraeg told me that in their opinion, Welsh and English should be treated equally in terms of this requirement and they'd be conveying that to the university. Do you agree with the principle that the languages should be treated equally in Wales for a course that provides for public services in Wales?

14:05

Of course, I believe that the ability to be able to practice medicine bilingually through the medium of both English and Welsh would put someone in very great stead for being an excellent practitioner, but as I said in answer to the question, universities themselves are responsible for setting individual grade requirements for the courses. They do that, often, in a way to ensure that the right students are placed on those courses with the right abilities to be able to be successful and to thrive. That individual case I am happy to look at, but as I said, it is for individual institutions to make a decision on the individual requirements that they require of students to be able to be successful on that course, but the principle of a Welsh first language GCSE or an English GCSE being compatible is one that I agree with and one that we use as a compatible performance measure in the Welsh Government's own evaluation system.

As the higher education admissions guide issued by Qualifications Wales states, the reformed GCSEs in Wales retain the grading scale A* to G. No precise comparison can be made between the current alphabetical grading scale and the revised numerical scale in England. Of course, Wales also has two maths GCSEs, mathematics and numeracy, and England only one, risking the creation of complications and confusion when clearly we need understanding of comparability. If and when, therefore, universities fail to understand how to compare effectively so that equal achievement is recognised equally, what action does the Welsh Government take directly to overcome any misunderstandings or misconceptions in any universities in Wales, England or elsewhere who may be getting it wrong?

The first thing to say, Mark, is that our GCSEs and A-levels and our suite of qualifications are absolutely of the same rigour as those across the border. The decision by the English Government to change their grading arrangements is rightly a matter for them, but Qualifications Wales has been quite clear in their advice that the letter grading system is one that is well understood by universities and employers, and perhaps in terms of educating universities as to qualifications, maybe it is the numbering system that they need additional information on.

However, because there is a divergence in the qualification system and we want to ensure the portability of our qualifications system for our children and young people, for instance, Qualifications Wales has a dedicated employee who works with the higher education sector across the UK to ensure that there is a full understanding of the raft of qualifications that Welsh children sit, their value and their rigour, and I'm grateful for the work that Qualifications Wales do in this regard.

Reid Review

5. Will the Minister make a statement on the Welsh Government's plans to implement the recommendations of the Reid Review? OAQ54918

The Reid review recommendations were accepted in principle by the Welsh Government in 2018 and, since that time, I have been taking forward actions in support of these recommendations with Ministers and officials from across the Government.

In the evidence that the Minister gave to the Children, Young People and Education Committee last week, she made a clear budgetary commitment to meeting £15 million of spending towards implementing in particular recommendation 2 of the Reid review. But the Reid review recommendation 2 was an additional £30 million a year to incentivise researchers to win greater funding from business and from outside Wales. I've no doubt that the Minister is committed to meeting in principle the recommendations of the Reid review, but the figure that she has outlined is £15 million short. And what she said in response to questioning was that the Welsh Government is funding this research in a variety of different reviews almost Byzantine in their complexity. The money is out there somewhere, but it's very complex to audit it beyond the £15 million she's committed. Yet, the third recommendation of the Reid review is a single overarching brand for its research and innovation funding to increase visibility and coherence. So, with that in mind, can she provide a more detailed explanation of where the money will come from? And if she can't do that today, will she commit to providing that explanation as quickly as possible and, if possible, make a statement to the Chamber around that, and work with her ministerial colleagues to deliver the coherence that the Reid review has recommended?

14:10

The Member is absolutely right, Presiding Officer: we are investing some £15 million in an innovation and engagement fund. That was a fund that was abolished or stopped back in 2014 because of the pressure that was on the Welsh Government budget at that time, and I'm delighted that we've been able to get back into funding that provision. On top of that, we are making allocations to quality research funding to HEFCW in line with the recommendations in both Reid and the Diamond report. But funding for research and innovation is spread across a number of portfolios: mine, the portfolio of Ken Skates, and the portfolio of Vaughan Gething. So, in its totality, the Welsh Government is spending significant amounts of money on research, on innovation across the piece. It can be complex and that's why this work is being undertaken by officials, to be able to have a better understanding of the resources that are available.

But I have to say to the Member, our ability to fund universities in this way is severely under threat because of the lack of clarity under the shared prosperity fund. Much of the resources that have funded the Sêr Cymru programme, the KES programme at Bangor University—these programmes have been funded by money from European structural funds, and the inability to have clarity on that and the inability to be able to have Welsh Government direct that funding is a real threat. And that's why Universities Wales is supporting the Welsh Government in its call for clarity to the Westminster Government on the ability to have the replacement structural funds, and for those funds to be managed here, quite rightly, by this Government, and scrutinised by this Parliament.

Twenty-first Century Schools

6. Will the Minister provide an update on the twenty-first century schools programme in Carmarthenshire? OAQ54921

Thank you. Carmarthenshire has seen £87 million invested in their school estate through the first wave of the twenty-first century schools and colleges programme. A further £112 million for rebuild and refurbishment of Carmarthenshire’s school estate is proposed for the second wave of the programme, funding of which began in April of last year.

I am grateful to the Minister for that update. The Minister will not be surprised to hear me asking her again about progress on delivering Ysgol Gymraeg Dewi Sant in Llanelli. I was very grateful when, before Christmas, the First Minister undertook to have some cross-Cabinet discussions about the particular issues around planning for that school, and I wonder if the Minister is able to tell me today whether those conversations have taken place and when the parents, the staff, but most importantly of all, the pupils, can expect to hear that building on the new school will start.

Well, as the Member will be aware, the outline business case for the replacement of that particular school was approved in 2017. However, since that time, that proposal has become subject to a wide-ranging discussion around planning issues, which the Member will be aware of. The planning decision branch of the Welsh Government is currently contemplating the request of a call-in, but I have to inform the Member that the request cannot be considered in its full way until Carmarthenshire council prepares its own officer's report and submits this to the committee meeting. Officials are currently awaiting that report, and then will make recommendations to the Minister for Housing and Local Government upon its receipt. Any influence she can bring to that process is very welcome.

Minister, I wonder if you could tell or confirm to us what formal arrangements you have in place for monitoring and evaluating the value for money of the twenty-first century schools programme deliveries, whether it's Carmarthenshire or throughout Wales.

Absolutely. Given the considerable amount of public money that is being spent on the programme, both money from within Welsh Government, but also capital money that local government themselves put into the project, then there is an evaluation process. That helped inform the second wave of funding, and we continue to work with our local authority partners to deliver the best value for money possible. I'm very pleased to say, because of very close management of the fund in the first band, we were able to deliver more projects than had been initially anticipated at the beginning of the project. But close attention to value for money is an important part of the robust process that is overseen independently of the Government when approvals are taken. So, it's a multilayered approach, and recommendations are made to Ministers by an independent panel.

14:15
The Review of School Funding

7. Will the Minister provide an update on the review of school funding in Wales? OAQ54926

The leading education economist Luke Sibieta is taking forward an analysis of how total spending and spending on different categories varies across schools in specific circumstances in Wales. The terms of reference for this work have been published, and it is intended that this work will be completed before the summer recess.

Thank you for that answer, Minister. We're all aware that the quantum of school funding will remain an issue until we not only reverse the impact of 10 years of Tory cuts to the Welsh budget but can also increase our budgets in real terms and for a sustained period. But in spite of those pressures, I'm proud that the Welsh Government has provided £100 million to deliver improved school standards, introduced the pupil development access grant, increased support for free school meals, supports the holiday hunger scheme and delivers the twenty-first century schools programme. But can you tell me to what extent the 2020-1 Welsh budget settlement will address some of the concerns identified in the Children, Young People and Education Committee's inquiry on school funding in Wales?

Okay. I can say that the decisions made by regional school improvement services, local education authorities and councils will form a part of Luke's investigation and report. One of the issues that was front and centre of the committee's report was not just the total sum of funding but actually the way in which that money allocated reaches the front line and gets into an individual school's budget. And so, as I said, that will form an important part of the report.

With regard to the financial year we're about to go into, having listened very carefully to colleagues in local government and received assurances from them that, if the Welsh Government was to provide local government with a good settlement, they would prioritise schools and social services, I think that puts us in a good place, as well as the additional resources that are available to me, some of which investments you outlined in your supplementary question.

The Siarter Iaith Framework

8. Will the Minister provide an update on the Siarter Iaith framework? OAQ54928

Diolch yn fawr, Llyr. Siarter Iaith is the responsibility of the Minister for International Relations and Welsh Language. I can, however, tell you that the Siarter Iaith framework was part of the consultation on the new curriculum for Wales. The responses will be considered alongside the independent evaluation of the programme, which is currently ongoing.

I'm sorry—

Sorry—my earpiece. My Welsh isn't that good. [Laughter.] Blwyddyn 2 standard. 

Thank you. The initial guidance provided to schools back in April stated that there would be further practical guidance available by September. Well, we're five months later and, as far as I can see, we still haven't seen those. Now, I accept what you said about ministerial responsibility around this, but the point I want to make is that the Siarter Iaith should be far more prominent and central, in my view, in this attempt to develop the Welsh language through the classroom, although it does promote the use of Welsh outside the classroom, of course. And I do want to hear from the Government that the Siarter Iaith is given that appropriate status so that I can have confidence that it is a priority for you as Government, because this delay in terms of the latest guidance is something that concerns me a great deal. You could alleviate that concern by ensuring, as you have perhaps suggested, that there would be a far stronger reference to the Siarter Iaith in the new curriculum for Wales. But the message I want to hear from you is that it is a central part of the Government's vision in this area and that you have a commitment to ensuring that the Siarter Iaith does grow and develop further.

Well, I hope the Member will be pleased when we publish the final version of the curriculum guidance at the end of this month that we have listened very carefully to the feedback from the initial period with regard to the Siarter. External evaluation is ongoing and, due to the changes to the timetable of the evaluation, the project will now not be completed until the end of February. As a result, new guidance will not be published until the summer term. Schools will be expected to implement the new framework from September 2020, and the Siarter Iaith co-ordinators have been informed of this new timetable. So, it is the delays around the evaluation work that have led to the knock-on effect. But the Siarter is going to be a very important way in which we develop the language.

One of the challenges we sometimes face, especially for children for whom Welsh is not their language at home, is that, too often, language is seen as something that happens within the classroom, rather than a living, breathing part of the entire school community in all its regards. And so being able to build upon speaking the language outside of the classroom will be a really important part of, first of all, developing individuals' skills and proficiency, but also sending a very clear message of the place of the language within not just the life of school, but the daily lives of our children and the communities in which they live.

14:20
2. Questions to the Minister for Health and Social Services

The next questions, therefore, are questions to the Minister for Health and Social Services, and the first question is from Siân Gwenllian.

Rapid Diagnostic Centres

1. When will the Minister publish an evaluation of the Welsh Government's rapid diagnostic centres plan? OAQ54895

Thank you for the question. The NHS-led cancer implementation group has funded two pilot rapid diagnostic centres. The interim evaluation reports were considered at its meeting in November 2019 and the final evaluation is due to be considered at its meeting in May of this year. I will update Members later in the year on the evaluation and the impact upon NHS planning and delivery.

We know that diagnosing cancer early can be the difference between a good outcome or a poor outcome when it comes to treatment of that cancer. Quite simply, diagnosing cancer early will often save a patient's life. The positive evidence coming forward as a result of the pilot schemes in Neath Port Talbot and in the Royal Glamorgan Hospital is to be welcomed. But the people of Gwynedd are calling for a similar service, with over 1,500 people having signed an open letter calling for a rapid diagnostic centre in our area. Given that cancer does lead to more deaths in Gwynedd than anything else, and as we do know that rapid diagnosis does save lives, when will we see a rapid diagnostic centre coming to the north-west of Wales?

Well, as I say, the evaluation due in May of this year will allow us to understand the exact impact, although, obviously, the highlighting in the last couple of days has been a positive initial evaluation. The final evaluation will tell us more about not just those two sites, but then help to inform a national plan and, at that point, I'll be able to update Members on what that looks like, because there is more to consider than just simply picking locations; it's also about then having the right workforce and the right capital, should that be a requirement, around it as well. But I'm looking forward to the final evaluation and then making a choice, together with the system, about how to take that forward.

Minister, I think we all read the very positive story about Neath Port Talbot yesterday. Of course, they've tested the pilots in England, and they are well on their way to establishing a national network. In fact, by April of this year—that's a whole month before your evaluation is finally conducted—there will be a network in England. Why are we so far behind?

We're not so far behind. I don't think that's a fair reflection at all, with respect, Mr Melding. The reality is that we've set up these pilots, we're learning lots from them, and I expect to make choices across our system within this year, and we'll then be into the implementation phase. I wouldn't quite take at face value every single press release that is issued in England about where they are in reality in terms of their service. We've seen, for example, in other periods of health spending and health performance where press releases are issued but don't actually reflect the reality upon the ground. I'm interested in an evaluation within our system of how our system works in an integrated and planned way in delivering that care on a more consistent basis across the country when we know what the right answer is. I'm much more interested in being in the space of helping to direct the service to make improvements, rather than simply saying there are lots of good ideas but I don't have a view on what that should mean across the service.

14:25

Minister, will you join me in congratulating Dr Heather Wilkes and her team at Neath Port Talbot Hospital, and her predecessor, Dr Jeremiah, who have actually undertaken this work, and, as a consequence, we are seeing that lives are being saved through earlier diagnosis? But as you pointed out, just now and in the committee this morning, if we want more of these, we need staff to be able to deliver those departments and those units. What are you doing, as a Government, to prepare for a situation where, if these pilots are shown to be the case, with continuing positive results, we'll be able to expand this into other areas, so we have the staff, we have the resources and we have the equipment to ensure that this can be expanded across Wales?

I think the points that I made in committee today are still exactly the right ones. It is about recognising not just the plan to have these, but, actually, the work of the staff to lead and deliver that work on the ground in a pilot phase, and that the learning isn't just the outcomes of what that means, but also the staff mix that you need to deliver them successfully. So, the evaluation can't simply be about, 'This is the right answer', and then not having a view on how that moves forward.

I want to be in a position to understand whether we need to make different investment choices centrally, or whether, actually, we need to help direct and get around our system in different parts of the service. That's why, for example, we've continued to invest in imaging services, not just the imaging academy, to improve the quality of training and to improve the retention of staff, but also the investment we've made in the most recent round of healthcare professionals' training and the additional investment we've made in radiotherapists, for example, as well. So, this is about equipping ourselves for the future, but still properly understanding that there's more we need to do when we have that full evaluation of what to do next.

The Transfer of Patients

2. What discussions is the Minister having with health boards and associated partners to improve the transfer of patients from hospitals back into community settings? OAQ54912

I thank David Rees for that question. I am having regular discussions about these issues with health and social care partners, as is the Minister, including meetings in Swansea Bay last week. It is vital to prevent unnecessary admissions and transfer people from hospital to their homes or community settings as soon as they are ready.

Thank you for that answer, Deputy Minister. As the Minister found out for himself last week, when he visited the minor injury unit in Neath Port Talbot Hospital, there were, on that particular day, 125 patients in Morriston awaiting discharge who were physically fit to go out of hospital, but who were sitting there because they weren't able to get out. There's clearly a relationship with partners to make sure that care packages are in place, that care home places are available, or nursing home places are available, and that the adaptations are done. This is causing a problem, because we are always highlighting the fact that there are ambulances parked up outside hospitals and that accident and emergency departments are facing difficulties, but there's the flow through the hospitals and the discharges that are actually blocking everything up.

What are you actually doing to ensure that those departments and those social services, those partners, are actually doing the best they can? I know they're under pressure—I fully appreciate the pressures they're under—but they need to be able to ensure that those patients can get out as soon as possible so that the beds that they're occupying can be released to make sure that the flow through hospitals gets better.

Thank you, David Rees, for making those very important points. We do expect health boards to work together with local authorities and with the third sector to ensure that people do return home from hospital as soon as they are fit to do so, because I think we all know about the damage of people staying in hospital longer, as well as affecting the flow through the hospital. I know from recent visits, particularly to Swansea Bay, that there is a real commitment to do this.

So, we are putting effort and money in. We're supporting improvements through the national Every Day Counts programme and the discharge to recovery and assess pathways. We've invested in new initiatives through the integrated care fund and the transformation fund, where, of course, local authorities, health boards and the third sector all work together to come up with solutions.

The Swansea Bay region is putting in a number of measures, including through investing over £1 million in its hospital-to-home service, which they told me about in detail last week. That is supporting early discharge. These actions have led to improvements, so, certainly, in November and December the delayed transfers of care were reduced.

You mentioned the transformation fund, Minister, and the delayed discharges into community settings. One of the barriers is still around the whole area of funding, particularly if a person requires funding from both the health service and from the social services because of the mixed care package that they require. Quite often, there are—a kind way, perhaps, to describe it—marginal turf wars. People have got their own budgets, they've got to protect their budgets and they have to account for their budgets. I wondered what work is being done, through the transformation fund, particularly in 'A Healthier West Wales', where all of the organisations are supposedly coming together to deliver better outcomes for patients and getting them out of hospitals and back into community settings. I wonder if we're able to start learning some lessons about how we can resolve these funding issues, so that, whatever else happens, getting somebody out of a hospital and back into their home or into residential care—the block is not because of funding and who pays what element of the care that person requires. 

14:30

Angela Burns is right, there is sometimes difficulty over those different elements of funding. But it's absolutely essential that the patient, the individual, is at the absolute centre of the way that decisions are made. And I know that there have been projects, under the transformation funding, looking at how that can develop, and I hope that we'll be able to learn through that. Continuing care is one issue that has to be addressed, and I think we've had a statement on that fairly recently, and I know that we are looking at certain elements of community care and reviewing them. 

Questions Without Notice from Party Spokespeople

Questions now from the party spokespeople. Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Helen Mary Jones. 

Diolch, Llywydd. Does the Minister agree with the statement made by the First Minister yesterday in response to questions from Adam Price, when talking about pressures on the ambulance service? And I quote:

'The problem is not one that is soluble in the hands of the ambulance service alone...It is a whole-systems issue, in which we have to...clear people through the whole system so that, when the system comes under pressure, as...over the last few weeks, there is room at the front door.'

And does he further expect us to believe the First Minister when the First Minister told Adam Price that:

'we have resolved the problem...and the situation is much better than it was when I started as health Minister'?

Because I would submit, Llywydd, that is not the experience of my constituents who are served by Betsi Cadwaladr and by Hywel Dda health boards.

Yes, I think the First Minister properly describes it as a whole-systems issue; it certainly is. That's been reinforced to me on the visits that I've had through the start of this winter period, in this calendar year already. And that's a change from just a few years ago, to go into emergency departments and not to have people saying, 'We need more consultants', but actually saying, 'We need more investment in social care.' So, it is definitely a whole-systems issue.

But also, I think when you look at where we are, then actually yes we have. If you look objectively at where we are in terms of delayed transfers of care, we are better now than when the First Minister started his time as the health Minister. We have a number of things that have improved within our system. Our challenge, as ever, is the rate of improvement we make in our health and care systems, and the ever-changing rate and nature of demand and need. And that is the constant challenge that we face in the health service, and it goes back into the questions and conversations we had yesterday around the transformation fund in its broader sense around healthcare. 

I'm grateful to the Minister for his response. I wish I could characterise it as adequate; I'm afraid I can't. I have been looking back at the Minister's statements around winter pressures over the past three years, and he always says the same things. He always talks about norovirus and flu, and he says the same things when you have a really challenging year, when you actually have lots of norovirus or flu, and he says the same things when, as in this year, in fact, the situation is not that challenging.

Now, he may be right that there are some aspects of the service in unscheduled care that have improved since the First Minister's time, but one thing that has not been solved is the interface between health and social care. Now, Llywydd, we all know that the portfolios for health and social care have been held in our Parliament by Welsh Ministers for the last 20 years. Can the Minister tell me, can he reassure us today, that we will not be having this same conversation in another year's time, let alone in another 20 years' time?

Well, I don't expect to be having this conversation in 20 years' time; I hope my life will have moved on to a different point by then.

But in terms of some of the things that you said, when you describe it as not being challenging, actually, the context in which we deliver health and care is challenging. And it isn't just related to the circulation of flu or norovirus or the weather; it is the changing nature and mood of our population. And in the statement that I issued earlier today, the fact that we've had a 23 per cent increase in red ambulance calls during that period—the sickest, the most unwell people—an increase of that nature from one winter to another, that is the sort of trend you'd expect to see over several years, not over one winter. So, the context is different. The increase is different. And it's not just me saying that; any and every part of the national health service in each of the four countries in the UK is describing the same ramping up in challenges and pressures.

And in terms of the staff that I've met, they understand very well the nature of those challenges they see coming through the door, and they don't describe it as, 'It's just the same as previous winters where the system can't cope.' So, you go back to the challenge about the interface between health and social care. And, again, we've made real progress. When you look at the work that partnership boards are doing and the way they used money, not just this winter, but the improvement in relationships—. It is because of those improvements and the interface between health and social care that we're seeing flow restored, that we see flow continuing in different parts of the country, in and out of the hospital. And we are more successful than ever at keeping people in their own home now as well.

But it's still, 'How do we get even further ahead?', and that's why we're looking over not just this winter, but into the next winter, about how we get further ahead and actually spend more, not just money together, but more to stabilise and improve the services on that interface between health and social care, to keep people in their own homes more successfully, and on the ways to get them out of hospitals, which is no longer the right place for their treatment.

14:35

Well, the problem, of course, is, Llywydd, that nobody disbelieves the Minister when he's saying these things, but the problem is that he's been saying a variety of them, and his predecessors have been saying a variation on a theme. It may very well be, and I'm not questioning his figures, that we have, for example, had an exceptional number of vulnerable patients, but that begs the question about why those patients are becoming so vulnerable, why they're not receiving the care in the community that they ought to be receiving, and it brings us back to this whole issue of an abject failure to deliver the whole-systems approach.

We need to be very clear, Llywydd, that this is not an attack on the staff. We know that staff are doing excellent work. We also know that, in some places, local authorities are co-operating well or less well with their local health boards, and that where they are co-operating well that that is delivering change. But my question would be: where is the national leadership to scale up that change? Now, the Minister will no doubt talk again about the transformation fund, but I would again remind this Chamber that he or his party have been in charge of this for 20 years, and I am no more reassured by what he said this afternoon than I have been about all the other things that he's said over the preceding years. 

But I want to bring us back to a specific. So, the Minister has just acknowledged, as the First Minister said, that one of the issues around discharging patients from ambulances into hospitals—one of the reasons for the pressures—is that there is a need for a whole-systems approach. So, I'm a little bit surprised in that regard that the Minister has decided to set up yet another task and finish group to review the ambulance service. If the problems are not in the ambulance service but are actually in social care, in delayed transfers of care—and I would argue in the capacity that's been stripped out of the system—why is it going to be helpful to have yet another review of the ambulance service, which on other occasions he's told me is perfectly all right? I am somewhat at a loss. 

I'm not particularly interested to hear what the Minister says to defend the decision, to be completely honest. But what I would ask him factually is: who are the members of this task and finish review going to be? He's told us who the chair and the vice-chair are going to be—or joint chairs, I apologise. Well, who are the members of this going to be? How is the voice of patients,  and particularly the most vulnerable patients like older people and people with learning disabilities, going to be heard in this review? And when does he expect it to report? Because I think we're all losing patience with task and finish groups and reviews. What I would like to see is a health Minister who's prepared to make a decision. 

I make decisions every single day in this office. I've made a number of decisions about directing the future of the service, not just the overarching 10-year plan in 'A Healthier Wales' but many more, as the Member knows. I appreciate there's a sense of theatre to this, but every now and again we should try and deal with some of the more realistic elements of what we're dealing with in the service. 

When you talk about why are patients so vulnerable, we know very well why lots of our patients are more vulnerable now than in previous years. It's part of our success story of keeping people alive for longer. It's also partly about the challenge of the burden of ill health and disease that is not a part of the natural ageing process. So, the Member knows that very well.

When it comes to capacity being stripped out of the system, we haven't stripped necessarily capacity out of the system. Our challenge is our ability to increase it across the whole system to the extent that it is then properly sustainable to deliver the care that we need. And, actually, if you looked at any objective commentators about where that capacity exists, then I don't think they share the Member's analysis.

And when it comes to the task force that I have set up, you know very well who the chairs are, and I'll announce all of the members who are taking part in that in due course. I expect them to report to me to make early suggestions before the end of this winter period, so before the end of March. I expect to have the full measure of that within a period of three months or so. I have not set something up to take six to 12 months to avoid the challenge. I am interested in some advice and some challenge about how we do this across the whole system.

I think the Member has misunderstood this about just being focused on the ambulance service. It's actually about improving ambulance availability, and that requires a look at the whole system. I look forward to being able to report back on that properly to Members once that advice is available to me.

14:40

Diolch, Llywydd. There is absolutely no doubt that we have a selfless army of 370,000 unpaid carers in Wales. In November 2017, the Welsh Government announced that one of its priorities to support the delivery of the enhanced rights of carers under the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 was to support life alongside caring. 

On Carers Rights Day 2018, the Welsh Government announced a £15 million investment in preventative services that support adults with care needs and carers who need support. On Carers Rights Day 2019, your Government announced that you will be developing a national action plan this year to strengthen the national co-ordination of support for carers. Evidence has emerged showing that 59 per cent of carers in Wales stated that, over the festive period, they really struggled, and 45 per cent are struggling even to make ends meet.

The director of Carers Wales has commented that carers across Wales sacrifice so much looking after a loved one, yet their contribution to society goes largely unnoticed and under-appreciated.  What actions are you taking, Deputy Minister or Minister, to ensure that the new national action plan you're going to be working on will address this?

I thank Janet Finch-Saunders for that very important question. I think we all appreciate the huge contribution that carers make—the 370,000 that she referred to—and we want to make their lives as easy as we possibly can.

She mentioned that one of the Welsh Government's priorities was life alongside caring. It's also to ensure that carers can identify themselves as carers and that we know them as carers, so that any help that is available they can access. And we also want to be sure that there is advice and information available for them. And those are our three priorities, and we have supported those priorities through a series of funding initiatives, and we have also re-emphasised the ministerial advisory group—the group that is advising the carers group.

I'm also aware that the Health, Social Care and Sport Committee has had an extensive investigation into carers and have 31 recommendations for the Government, which we will be responding to shortly. So, I can assure her that carers are very much on our minds and that we are addressing their issues.

Thank you, Deputy Minister, I do appreciate your efforts in this regard, but we have to face facts: more than any other nation in the UK, Wales is very dependent on its carers. The percentage of adults who have been carers during their adult life was found to be 63 per cent in England, 65 per cent in Scotland, 66 per cent in Northern Ireland, yet 70 per cent in Wales.

Part 3 of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014—and I sat through the scrutiny of this—placed a duty on a local authority to offer an assessment to any carer. When considering the data for the number of assessments undertaken, it would seem that there is a positive trend, with the numbers going up from 6,178 in 2016-17 to 7,261 in 2018-19. This isn't good enough. Looking at the situation in some detail, I have found that the number of assessments in Wales has actually fallen in seven local authorities. 

When considering Carers Trust findings that the number of carers will increase in the UK by around 60 per cent by 2030, we should actually be seeing an increase in these assessments, not a decrease. So, will you, as Deputy Minister with responsibility for this, investigate why this is not the case in almost 40 per cent of our local authorities, and ascertain whether some carers are missing out on what is, in fact, a statutory right for their assessment?

It was groundbreaking, in the Act that Janet Finch-Saunders referred to, that carers had a right to a carers assessment, and we want to ensure that as many carers as possible get access to that right. That's why one of our priorities is identifying carers and for carers to self-identify, because many people carry out the role of caring for a loved person and don't identify themselves as a carer. So, I think it's very important that we emphasise who is a carer and what help is available. And of course, I think we have to accept as well that some carers don't want an assessment. But I accept what she's saying and I think we've seen from all the reports that have come from the Carers Trust and from other organisations that there are people who are not getting the service that we would wish, as a Government, for them to have. And that's why we are putting more resources into projects related to caring, and the sustainable social services grants that will be announced fairly soon give significant funding to carer organisations, and we do intend to increase our support.

14:45

Thank you. I'd just like to emphasise once again that it's the number of assessments—when carers do present and want those assessments and they're not able to access them. Since the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014, I think it's even more important that your Government isn't failing on those.

Now, social care demands such as providing support for carers and looked-after children and meeting domiciliary care needs are placing local authorities under huge financial pressure. For example, it is partly because of social care and children's services demands that Monmouthshire local authority is facing a £4 million deficit this year. Conwy County Borough Council, my own local authority, is forecasting a financial deficit of £12.5 million for the next financial year. Whilst the draft budget allocates £40 million via a special grant to local authorities to address pressures in social care in 2020-21, the £30 million allocated via grants to local authorities last year did not succeed in addressing these pressures in social care. So, I suppose it's a really obvious question on my part: why do you think that £40 million is going to be enough to actually help these local authorities meet their duties, especially including those owed to carers and looked-after children? 

Certainly, the £30 million was used very effectively by local authorities. The decision as to how it was actually used was left largely to the local authorities, because they are closer to their needs. But certainly, we know of the sorts of issues that they used that £30 million for: nine local authorities utilised this funding to support adult and older people's services; eight local authorities used the funding to support domiciliary care for older people; and eleven local authorities used a portion to increase wages across the sector which, of course, is an issue—the wage levels that exist in the social care sector. And so, I'm very pleased that we've been able to give an extra £10 million to local authorities for them to use in these sorts of ways I've described, and in any other ways that they feel are going to help, because we absolutely accept that there is pressure on the social care sector.

It's crucially important to the people of Wales that we are able to provide them with adequate care when they need it, and that's why we have a whole variety of initiatives to try to tackle these issues. We've mentioned the transformation funds and the integrated care fund, and all those are used to have integrated working to help the social care sector. And I absolutely acknowledge the issue about children, and that is one of the reasons why we are working to try to keep children at home with their families, where we put in extra support to try to help them stay there rather than have to go into care. So, we have got a whole host of initiatives, but I absolutely accept that there is more that we need to do. 

Diolch, Llywydd. 

Minister, I wanted to enquire about the thinking behind how our pay scales for hospital doctors differ from those in England, and the impact that this has on recruitment and retention. I note that, for the first-year foundation doctors, our scales are between £1,300 and £1,500 higher per year than in England, but don't doctors look through that and see that at the end of that foundation year as they go into the second foundation year, in England they get approximately a £2,800 increase compared to only £700 in Wales? That then leaves them around £600 per year less than equivalents would get in England. And that continues to the specialty registrars, where they start about £600 less than in England, and then at the top of the highest pay point, it's about £1,000 less than in England. When I speak with doctors in Wales, I often find that their perception of the difference between the pay scales and an idea that somehow pay is significantly less in Wales is out of all proportion to the   relatively small amount of those differences I've just described, and I wonder if, therefore, there may be a negative impact on recruitment and retention, which is out of all proportion to the modest amount of savings made by the lower pay scales I've described.

14:50

There are two points that I think I should make. The first is that, in the thinking that lies behind the pay arrangements, that's a matter of negotiation between the Government, NHS employers, and the recognised trade union, the BMA, so, there's a range of things to take into account with that. Obviously, from the industrial side, you expect they'll want to get the very best possible deal for their members, but also there's the balancing of what the system can afford and there's what that does in terms of recruitment and retention. And there is some sensitivity about differential scales, potentially, on either side of the borders. There's a bit of divergence, obviously, at the junior end of the scale because of the contract that was imposed in England. And, actually, in our very direct engagement with the BMA and their juniors' committee, they were really clear that they thought that we'd done the right thing in not following suit.

We've agreed, as part of the normal way, that we will continue to negotiate both the longer term challenges about consultants' pay, where I think it would be preferable to take a multi-nation approach, but that's something to discuss and to talk about, together with a review on the juniors' contract position here in Wales. There's certainly no agenda given to try to somehow save a small amount of money and to risk recruitment and retention, because, actually, doctors look at a much wider suite of things: they look at training, they look at excellence, the future of the services and whether they believe that that's somewhere they actually want to work. That's why we have a campaign, 'Train. Work. Live.', because all of those aspects make a difference to where a whole range of health professionals choose to locate themselves for their careers.

I thank the Minister for his reply. If I may turn to the particular issue in light of that of pensions, I think it was when the Minister was standing in for the First Minister at a previous First Minister's questions that I asked him about what had happened in England to pay those extra costs that doctors were finding and would we be doing similar in Wales. I see that we now are doing so; there's been a ministerial direction for that to happen.

But I just wondered if I could highlight a key difference between what we're doing in Wales and the position for the UK Government for England, as I raised with the Finance Minister earlier in committee, in that, for the UK Government, it is essentially an accounting transaction between the NHS for England and the Treasury. Whereas, for us in Wales, don't we face the same cliff edge that doctors face themselves, and they choose not to take on extra sessions, because the impacts on their pensions of those extra sessions are so much greater that it costs them money to do so? And the marginal costs of those sessions are huge because of the way that they interact with the pension system. Isn't that also the case for Welsh Government if they choose to pay that tax? And is it a cost-effective way, certainly, of anything beyond the very short term, of our spending Welsh taxpayers' money on these very substantial sums to pay pension tax to UK Government when we're only getting modest increases in the number of sessions delivered by doctors out of that?

I think it's a very real problem and it certainly hasn't been resolved. In the context of pressure across every single UK nation and the national health service in winter, it's an exacerbation of that because some of the people we're talking about work at the front of the hospital system together with people who work in general practice as well, whether in in-hours or out-of-hours. So it affects the whole system and there are other groups of staff, clinical and non-clinical, affected by the same issue.

So, the choice made in England, I would say that it was pretty extraordinary to do so in the middle of an election campaign and to do so without any contact with the other Governments within the UK as well. I don't think that was particularly well reflected in the way that lots of healthcare staff, regardless of their views on how to vote, felt about that choice being made, and there is a real need to go back to look at the direct impact. The impact upon staff on the cliff edge that some face is potentially having in-year bills that are the same or more than their rates of pay or significant sums of money that they just haven't provided for and can't plan for, and you couldn't reasonably expect them to do so as well.

There's also a challenge about the long-term effects of the pension scheme. If you get your higher earners and higher contributors coming out of that scheme and not making contributions, that affects everyone who's in the scheme. But more than that, these are UK rules, and they're UK rules designed and delivered by the UK Treasury—they affect all of us. And I certainly hope that, in the UK budget coming up within the next coming months, they resolve the problem that they have created. Because it will cost more money to resolve it  otherwise, because we'll do that in the sense that the arrangement we've already had to work around now; we'll do that by paying more for activity, probably in the independent sector, to recover activity that won't take place within the national health service. But, more than that, we are bleeding away the goodwill of staff who are directly affected, and some of those staff who come and work additional hours within the national health service, to undertake waiting list initiatives in every one of the four UK countries, may decide not to come back, and we may find that we need to recruit, train and retain even more of those staff in the future, with even more cost to the taxpayer and the national health service to do so.

I think it is a self-defeating measure. I've written or I'll shortly be writing again, and I'll happily make Members aware of that when I do, to the UK Government asking them to, again, have an attack of common sense, to look again at the rules, and to do the right thing by the national health service, because all of us will pay if they don't do so, and it's literally affecting thousands and thousands of episodes of patient treatment and care. That has to be the wrong choice to make, and I certainly hope that the UK Government do the right thing and then they can all argue about who should take credit for it afterwards.

14:55
Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board

3. What input is the Welsh Government having to improve services at Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board? OAQ54901

We support a range of activities to drive service improvement, examples of which were set out in my statements of 19 November 2019, 8 October 2019, and 16 July 2019. Our priority is to ensure that people in the Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board area receive health services that deliver the best possible outcomes and experience.

Minister, I have a question about the state of perinatal care, and I fear this situation is the norm, and not the exception. A constituent has contacted me with one of the most distressing accounts of being failed by the NHS that I've come across. She says that the love for her children is the only thing that stopped her ending her life. The woman concerned is also being supported by the Birth Trauma Association, who've been shocked by the repeated failings, the lack of improving access to psychological therapies and the inability of mothers to self-refer.

I have written to the chief executive of the trust, to try and get justice on this individual case, but I think this matter highlights a general lack of perinatal care facilities here in Wales—a matter that was highlighted by my much missed colleague Steffan Lewis, many, many years ago. So, do you agree with me and with Steffan that there needs to be an urgent improvement in perinatal care in Wales, and if you do agree, how do you intend to do it? 

Well, obviously, I don't know the individual circumstances that the Member has referred to, and if she wants me to take an interest, then I'll be happy to do so in the individual matter. I'd be interested in knowing, but I'd need the permission of her and her constituent to do so, and what the response is to the complaints and concerns that have been raised.

When it comes to what we do about it, we have invested significantly in community perinatal care, but there is the challenge about delivering the mother and baby unit that we're committed to doing, but that's only one part of the jigsaw, and it's part of the overall improvement. So, yes, I do believe that they need to be improved. I have written to the Children, Young People and Education Committee to set out where we are. There's some disappointment about the pace and scale of change, and I'm looking at an interim solution before a permanent one is in place on the inpatient care. And I committed again today in budget scrutiny with the Health, Social Care and Sport Committee to make sure that they're copied in when I provide a further update to the children and young people's committee.

But this is a significant area of activity and of improvement activity, as well. The perinatal lead that we have in place, Sharon Fernandez, a recognised health visitor, is actually helping to drive some of that improvement. I'd be more than happy to write to the Member with more detail on that programme if that would be helpful.

Minister, a few months ago, I asked you about the discrepancy in ambulance discharge times for my constituents attending the Princess of Wales Hospital, as compared to those attending other hospitals in Cwm Taf Morgannwg. Now I've had a freedom of information response showing that my constituents who live in the Bridgend County Borough Council area are waiting far longer for orthopaedic surgery than those living elsewhere within the Cwm Taf Morgannwg area. The wait for knee replacements, new hips and shoulder surgery is nine months for residents in the old Cwm Taf area. My constituents, however, are having to wait twice as long as that, and in the case of knee replacement, a minimum of two years. Cwm Taf Morgannwg have started to outsource the simpler cases to private hospitals—let's hear the howls of indignation now—and by organising weekend work at Princess of Wales Hospital. But are you happy with the inequities of provision within one health board?

15:00

No, there's not just a challenge about it within one health board, but the broader improvement we know is required, in particular when it comes to joint replacement surgery, in a number of different parts of Wales. That's part of the reason why we're looking not just at the planned care improvement activity, but what that means in terms of reorganising the range of our services in hospitals, and actually finally getting to the point of understanding how we get to have a planned care system that isn't overloaded and interrupted by emergency care. So we're going to need to look again and be able to deliver some planned care activities where we don't have emergency care taking place on the same site.

Now, that's part of the challenge not just for one health board but for health boards generally. That's part of the reason why I've required health boards to look together, regionally, to plan some of those activities as well, and I fully expect to be updating Members in the course of the year on what that is likely to mean, because I want to see improvement in every part of the country, not just within one health board area.

Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

4. Will the Minister make a statement on accident and emergency waiting times? OAQ54897

Performance against emergency department access targets is not where we, the public or the NHS want it to be and I have made clear my expectation with health boards of the requirement for continuous improvement. We continue to work with all stakeholders to support the delivery of a whole-system improvement.

Thank you. Minister, A&E has seen a decade of decline in Wales. The percentage of patients seen within the four-hour target time has fallen from 90.9 per cent in October 2009 to 74.4 per cent in November 2019. The sirens are screeching loudest in Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board, which has fallen from 93.7 per cent in October 2009 to 72.2 per cent last November. The reality is even worse in some hospitals, especially Ysbyty Glan Clwyd, which is now the worst performing A&E in Wales. Not once has this hospital hit the 95 per cent target. What urgent actions will you take in conjunction with the chief executive of the health board to review and reform the A&E department at Ysbyty Glan Clwyd?

Well, I don't think it's a question of a single department being the issue in question, but there is improvement work taking place on peer leadership and exchange between the three departments in north Wales. There's been outside intervention together as well over the course of not just last winter, but this winter, too. You'll also have seen the measures we've taken, for example, with the Red Cross and pharmacy intervention within each of the emergency departments as well. If you look at the—[Interruption.]

And if you look at the challenges that exist right across the United Kingdom—[Interruption.]

If you look at the challenges right across the United Kingdom, you'll see exactly the same pressure right across the system, both in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, where each system talks and does honestly reflect the challenges that it has. I think when you look at the work that I'll be able to confirm early in this year on reforming and improving emergency care, you'll see we have listened to our clinicians, we're looking at new ways to improve, and of course the statement that I've made today sets out a range of improvement actions that will take place not just at the front door, but through our whole system. So I think you can already see action that is being taken, and there'll be more that I'll announce in the next coming months.

Minister, the health board remains in special measures, so the state of affairs has developed on your watch. Every year you prepare for winter pressures, and the latest BBC headlines this morning were that, for the whole of Wales, there were 79,150 wasted hours for ambulance crews waiting outside A&E. That's the equivalent of nine years, and that was last year, for crews waiting outside A&E. That's every year, and every year you appear to get caught out. If we look at the Record for this time last year, I know that the same questions and the same answers will feature. When will we see the improvements our constituents deserve?

Well, that's exactly why, in the statement that I've issued today, I set out the work that will be done to look at ambulance availability. That's about releasing ambulances into the community, but also, as I've said, it must be about further improvements to get people through the hospital and out of a hospital as well. We have been more successful than ever at keeping people in their own homes than before.

When it comes to a new way of working in emergency care, the programme's being led Jo Mower, the national clinical lead for unscheduled care, and we've invested in that programme. She's worked with her peers in emergency departments across the country to look at what that means for those departments, but that then has to be linked in to what that means for the whole system. So, my expectation is that we don't just provide care in the here and now and have a short-term answer; we need a longer term answer as well. Because I wouldn't pretend to any Member in this place, regardless of their party, that I'm sanguine and content about the current level of performance within our A&E system—that is both for the staff who work in it and the pressure that they feel, but also for people as well. And indeed, the conversation I had with a patient in Morriston A&E reinforced that. There's great support and understanding among the public about the pressure on the system, but actually what they want is improvement, and that's exactly what I want as well.

15:05
The Welsh Ambulance Service

5. What action is the Welsh Government taking following the Welsh Ambulance Service failing to meet its response time target for the first time in four years? OAQ54922

We're closely working with the chief ambulance commissioner, health boards and the Welsh ambulance service to identify actions to support immediate and sustainable improvement in ambulance responsiveness. I made a written statement on this issue earlier today.

I'm grateful to the Minister for his response. I believe it's important that when we talk about these issues we remember that we are talking about real people, real families, and the impact on their lives.

I want to draw the Minister's attention to a constituent from Llanelli who contacted me last week regarding his father's treatment following a fall on Sunday 29 December. He fractured his hip. The elderly gentleman was fortunate he wasn't by himself. A phone call was made to the emergency services at 8.30 p.m. It was not responded to until 10.30 a.m. That's a 14-hour wait for a vulnerable, elderly 88-year-old gentleman. By the time Mr Ogborne was taken into Morriston Hospital and given a bed, almost a whole day had passed since his fall, and he was very fortunate, of course, that he wasn't on his own when that happened. The situation was exasperated by a very large number of ambulances queuing outside A&E. His hip operation was scheduled for 31 December. It eventually took place on 1 January, but his health deteriorated further, and very sadly he succumbed to his illness and died on 4 January this year.

I hope the Minister will agree with me that this is not the kind of treatment that particularly our most elderly and vulnerable constituents and citizens of Wales should expect. I hope that he will be able to provide some assurance to the family that the outcome of the review that he's already allowing today will make it less likely that people like Mr Ogborne will be asked to wait this kind of length of time again. And I wonder if the Minister—though there may be complications—will consider apologising to Mr Ogborne's family, because I know that this is not the standard of service that the Minister would want.

No, it certainly isn't the standard of service that I'd want. Obviously, I don't know all of the details, but I wouldn't describe what the Member has set out as being acceptable, and I'm sorry that any person would have that sort of experience. That's exactly why we're looking at ambulance response rates again with a short task and finish group, to look at actions to be taken sooner rather than later. There's nothing easy about this. The Member made this point earlier: if this was easy, we'd have pulled a lever and done it a long time ago. There isn't an easy answer to resolving all of the challenges of long waits in the system.

We know we've made real and sustained improvement in our ambulance service over the last four years. We know that other systems in Scotland and England have largely copied what we've done. But we also know that we've had a challenge that has grown over the last couple of years in particular about broader responsiveness, and that's what I'm looking to get into, to make sure that we have ambulances that are generally available for the risks that exist in the community, because while you manage what's in the front door of a hospital and that ties up resources there, you can't manage and deal with the risk in the way that you'd want to in the community. And that's accepted across the system as well, so it isn't about poking fingers at one part of our system; it's about delivering that whole-system improvement to deliver better care and more timely care for people right across the country.

Cancer Diagnosis

6. Minister, will you outline what plans the Welsh Government has to improve cancer diagnosis? OAQ54907

This approach is set out in the cancer delivery plan, which remains in place until December of this year. This includes the pilots on rapid diagnostic centres we discussed earlier, supporting primary care referral practice and the single cancer pathway. There are also important national programmes in place to support diagnostic services, such as imaging, pathology and endoscopy.

Thank you for that and, of course, I heard the response you gave to the Member for Arfon when she raised a very similar question earlier on, but I just want to talk about gaps in the diagnostic workforce. And if I was to take an example, such as histopathologists, since the new junior doctor contract was introduced in England in 2016, a significant difference between the pay given to trainees studying histopathology in Wales and those across the border in England has developed, meaning that if you're a histopathologist working in England, you'll earn an extra £60,000 over the course of your career compared to a counterpart in Wales. And there is a really strong view from stakeholders that this is contributing, in part—it's not all of it, but it's contributing—to the 40 per cent drop-out rate of trainees from the Welsh training programme since 2017. Forty per cent. That's a shockingly high number. So, given these problems facing the workforce and given that they'll continue to have a severe impact, ultimately, on the patients and on our ability to do an early diagnosis of cancer and therefore improve people's quality of life, can you please outline what your Government is doing to resolve this problem and also provide a time frame as to when any action would take place?

15:10

Well, actually, the good news is that we've filled all of our histopathology training places this year, but I'm aware of not just the role that histopathologists have within cancer but more broadly as well, and there is the point about retaining those people during the course of their training and afterwards as well. And it is, as I said in discussion earlier with Mark Reckless, only partly about the pay. It is also about the broader conditions of service and the direction of travel that we have as well. And as we get into having a fully fledged health and social care workforce strategy, we'll have a strategic plan for that to hang around as well. But we are already taking action. As you've seen, we're obviously increasing places, there's the extra priority and, like I said, it is encouraging, of course, that we filled all of those places this year. But it is a matter that's constantly kept under review because, as we want to expand and more successfully deliver the single cancer pathway, we'll need to look again at the workforce we have and the workforce that we need. 

The Choose Well Campaign

7. Will the Minister provide an update on the progress of the Choose Well campaign this winter? OAQ54927

Thank you for that question. We are continuing to monitor and review Choose Well materials to ensure these target the intended audience. We are also focusing specifically on a digital first approach this winter, while retaining the My Winter Health Plan scheme for those who don't have access to the internet or social media.

Thank you for that answer, Deputy Minister. During my pre-Christmas visit to Prince Charles Hospital in Merthyr, I was pleased to meet a range of staff, including the Red Cross staff working in the emergency department on the well-being and home safe service. And I think the health Minister's written statement this morning recognised that we should all be aware of the contribution that organisations like the Red Cross actually make in supporting the NHS.

I was also pleased to see in the Minister's statement that a ministerial task force is to be set up and will be looking at alternative pathways to avoid unnecessary attendance at A&E. So, in parallel with this, can I ask what more can be done to raise even more awareness of the Choose Well campaign, in order that we can direct patients to an appropriate location for their health needs? Because whilst there's clearly a lot more to do in managing the pressures on our emergency system, part of the solution must be to ensure that people who shouldn't be in A&E get the help that they need where they need it, when they need it, in the most appropriate settings. 

I thank Dawn Bowden for that very important question, and I would certainly want to commend the work of the Red Cross in the hospital in Merthyr Tydfil and also thank all staff across NHS Wales and the social care sector who, as we know from the discussions we've had here this afternoon, are working under pressure to provide care to the people of Wales. So we are working very closely with all the health boards and social care service providers to ensure that they do deliver the best outcome for patients and to support the further practical work that we need to do.

The Choose Well scheme has been successful. It has succeeded in directing more people to send their queries to other places rather than turning up at the emergency departments and A&E, and we're continually monitoring what the message should be. We're also ensuring that we have a message about mental health in the Choose Well programmes, that people recognise the difficulties that people experience and the mental health problems that crop up, particularly over periods like the Christmas period, so we're also looking at that.

But we are also continuing the scheme where we get all the information about a person and ask them to pin it up somewhere, like on a fridge in their room, so that there is information available in the home for professionals when they're asked for help, in order to try to do the best for the patient and to try to keep them at home, if possible, in all circumstances.

15:15
Autism Provision

8. Will the Minister provide an update on autism provision in Blaenau Gwent? OAQ54904

Thank you. We're improving services through the autism strategy, and the integrated autism service is operating across Wales, including in Blaenau Gwent. We will consult on the draft statutory autism code of practice this spring and we are undertaking a demand and capacity review to ensure that services meet the needs of autistic people and their families.

I'm grateful to the Minister for that, and I know the Minister has demonstrated a very great personal commitment to delivering a high level and high quality of services for people and families with autism. I would ask him to review the way that those policies are being delivered in Blaenau Gwent. I hear in my advice surgeries on a weekly basis about difficulties that families are having accessing services. I recognise that this isn't happening across the whole face of the country, but I would be grateful if the Minister could commission a review of the provision of these services in Blaenau Gwent to ensure that the quality of services being delivered to people that I represent matches the best quality of provision across the whole of the country.

The Member, to be fair, has been consistent in his concern over the lived experience of autistic people and their families in his constituency and the particular concerns that he feels exist in the join-up of all of those services to help make the most positive difference for those families. I think I'm meeting shortly with a group of parents from your constituency, and I'd be happy to discuss further there not just their lived experience but where any review could or could not be done. Because we're reviewing the whole national picture, we're having a national interaction, we're listening to people's own experience, so their voices will be within the code of practice and the improvement programme that we've set out, but I'd want to understand in some more detail what that might look like and whether, actually, there could be partners locally who could do that in any event without me trying to direct that at a ministerial level or to cut across the work we're doing. I think that's probably best taken up with the Member at his constituency in the coming few weeks.

3. Topical Questions

The next item is topical questions—two questions have been accepted today, to ask to the Minister for Economy and Transport, and the first question is from Jack Sargeant.

Mondi Job Losses

1. Will the Minister make a statement on the announcement by Mondi of job losses at the Deeside Industrial Park in Flintshire? 380

Yes, of course. This is extremely disappointing news, and my thoughts and sympathies go to all those directly and indirectly affected. My officials visited the Deeside site yesterday and our focus is now on persuading the company to retain the north Wales site. We are providing every bit of support possible to the employees during this difficult time.

Thank you for that answer, Minister. This is, of course, a very, very difficult time for the individuals, their families and the whole community in Deeside, and it is important now that we do all we can to support the workforce. Minister, you mentioned that you were in communication with Mondi. Can you confirm you are also in communication with the relevant trade unions? Secondly, what support can be put in place for the workforce, and, crucially, can you outline how the workforce can access this support? Minister, this news once again emphasises just how vital it is that we move quickly to support job creation in Deeside. Now, you know, Minister, and Members know across the Chamber, that I've long called for support for the Heathrow logistics hub at Tata Steel in Shotton, and I also believe that we should further invest in a second advanced manufacturing institute within the area. Minister, do you support me in these calls?

Can I thank Jack Sargeant for his questions? First and foremost, with regard to the position at the Mondi site, we'll work with company management—we've already made contact; we've visited the site—we'll work with the local authority, and we're working with staff representatives through the unions, throughout the consultation phase that is now under way, and we are hoping to reach a solution that will see the activities at the site maintained into the future. Now, whilst we hope that closure will be avoided, we stand ready to work, with the Department of Work and Pensions, our own ReAct team and other relevant stakeholders, to provide a comprehensive package of support to employees in the eventuality that the site cannot be saved.

Jobcentre Plus and Flintshire County Council have already been contacted, and they'll provide support and advice through the rapid response service that we've now established in north Wales. I'm pleased to say that Mondi has already said that it will hold a job recruitment day with local employers as part of the rapid redundancy support measures if closure is confirmed. We'll be working very closely to support this, and, if the need arises, to discuss any future use for the Deeside facility.

In terms of wider investment in the Deeside area, of course, the Heathrow logistics hub offers an enormous opportunity to provide sustainable high-quality work for many people in the area, and I would join Jack Sargeant also in saying that the second phase of the advanced manufacturing research centre—that being the advanced manufacturing research institute phase 2—is absolutely vital to promote the area and the region as a centre of excellence in electronics. We are proceeding with those plans for AMRI at pace.

I should finally say as well that in terms of skills demand in the area, employment numbers are such now in Flintshire—Flintshire, Llywydd, has the highest rate of employment in Wales, and it has the lowest rate of unemployment at just 2.3 per cent, which means that there is huge demand within the area for skilled people. As part of the work that we'll be undertaking with the company itself, we'll be carrying out a skills audit of the workforce to ensure that if it should close its doors, those people who are employed by Mondi will be able to be matched up as soon as possible with appropriate work elsewhere—for example, perhaps at KK Fine Foods, where, in the last 24 hours, we've been able to announce the creation of a further 40 jobs with investment of just over £0.5 million from the Welsh Government.

15:20

As you'll be aware, the Mondi Group creates paper and plastic packaging products, and its plants at the Deeside industrial park, where 167 jobs are at risk, and in Nelson, Lancashire, where 41 jobs are affected, create flexible plastics packaging—bags, pouches and laminates—for the consumer industry. But the company said that a change in demand for these niche products has led to the potential closures. However, in its statement last Friday, it said it will start a 45-day consultation process, which could lead to the closure of the practices. What is your understanding of the position regarding the change in demand for niche products? What support, if any, working with the other agencies and the UK Government that you described, could be given, either to help stimulate demand for those niche products or vary the niche products, perhaps, into new product lines to ensure that they meet the demand that is out there?

Can I thank Mark Isherwood for his questions in his contribution? My understanding is also that the products that come from the Deeside plant are very much niche products and that demand for them has, in recent times, subsided. As a consequence, the company needs to make a decision over whether to close the site, or whether, potentially, with assistance from the Welsh Government, perhaps the UK Government and the local authority, it could maintain its presence in north Wales by widening and broadening its base of products. That would require, of course, further research and development, and that's precisely why we've encouraged businesses to take full advantage of the advanced manufacturing research centre not far from that particular business. We would encourage the company, if it does decide to retain its presence, which we very much hope it will, to utilise the services and the collaboration within the AMRC.

In terms of the support that we stand ready to offer the workers, I've already outlined the rapid response service that now exists in north Wales and that stands ready to assist employees. In addition, we will look very closely at the pipeline of potential investments and growth that we already have for the region, and ensure that every effort is made to secure investment that could lead to new job opportunities being developed in Deeside and beyond.

It's interesting that the company cite the fact that there's been a change in demand for the niche products. Now, that does beg a broader question, of course—in what ways the Welsh Government might be helping companies to futureproof their business, given, of course, that there are societal changes and demands, and consumer trends, if you like, particularly in an environmental context. I'm just wondering what the Government might be doing to support some of those companies that might see these challenges on the horizon.

I'd be interested as well to hear whether Mondi have given an explanation why they're exiting the UK. Why consolidate outside the UK? What factors have driven that particular decision? Also, was the Welsh Government aware that there was a risk to these jobs, because my understanding is that there were issues there a couple of years ago, where the workforce actually stepped up to the plate? I'm just wondering, in the interim, whether the Government had been working with the company to try and safeguard those jobs. And if you were aware that those jobs were at risk, then maybe you could tell us what you did about it.

15:25

I can't reveal what's on our risk register in terms of businesses that we fear may be mobile and would choose to move away from Wales. That profile of businesses remains confidential because we don't want to raise any unnecessary concerns within the Welsh workforce. We maintain a very close dialogue with many of the 250,000 businesses in Wales, and we stand ready to assist any that face difficulties.

In terms of direct support that can be offered to businesses in order to futureproof against challenges such as decarbonisation, automation and digitisation and so forth, we developed the economic action plan, not just the economic contract that stands right at the centre of the economic action plan, but the new economy futures fund, with five areas of activity that allows companies to secure funding. Within those five areas, decarbonisation is one, headquartering in Wales is another, and in terms of research and development, businesses are also able to draw down funding through the economic futures fund.

Now, the example that I just gave in my response to Jack Sargeant, KK Fine Foods—they secured money in order to futureproof their activities within Deeside. They now have an economic contract that promotes decarbonisation, better health and mental health in the workplace, and fair work. They secured their funding in order to conduct more research and development at the Deeside plant, to diversify, and to move towards biodegradable packaging. That demonstrates how the economic action plan and the calls to action in the economy futures fund is working in practice on the ground to support companies transitioning to a new future.

Thank you for responding to that question. The next question is from Russell George. 

Flybe

2. Will the Minister make a statement in response to reports regarding Flybe's future and its impact on Cardiff Airport? 381

Yes, of course. I have to say it's encouraging to note that an agreement has now been reached with the UK Government that secures the ongoing operation of the airline. However, issues with regional connectivity remain and the UK Government need to intervene further in supporting the competitiveness of smaller airports.

Can I thank the Minister for his answer, and I would agree with him with regard to the welcome news that the UK Government has come to an agreement with Flybe's shareholders on a deal that will continue to allow Flybe to operate, at least in the short term? With regard to the future of Flybe, I wonder what discussions the Welsh Government has had, as owners of the airport, with both the UK Government and Flybe themselves. The Welsh Government has said in the past that Flybe would be a catalyst for the growth of the airport, so given the company's current financial status, can you expand on what discussions you've had with Cardiff Airport on the potential impact of Flybe reducing the number of routes out of Cardiff? And I wonder also if you could make an assessment of the implications for Cardiff Airport, should Flybe cease to operate, and the actions of the Welsh Government and Holdco that are taken to mitigate these.

As I understand, a 10-year arrangement or agreement was signed with Flybe when it opened its operations in Cardiff in 2015, so I wonder if you could set out any implications upon these contractual obligations and agreements, in the context of the difficulties currently being faced by Flybe. Has the Welsh Government considered, or Cardiff Airport considered, any offers of financial incentives to Flybe to attract them to remain operating at Cardiff Airport, for example fees or charges being waived for flying to and from the airport? And can I also ask what contingency plans does the airport have in place on future route losses, and what discussions have you had on other revenue-generating projects that will improve the financial sustainability of Cardiff Airport? I ask this in the context of Cardiff Airport's continued pre-tax losses, which we know have nearly trebled to £18 million and, of course, the other loan that was required of £21 million back in October. I wonder if you could also confirm what was the purpose of that loan of £21 million back in October.

And finally, in the Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee last week, you confirmed that the Welsh Government didn't really have an analysis of when the airport would start to make a profit, and you weren't able to rule out any further loans, and you didn't know when the current loan would start to be repaid back. So, in that regard, what assessment do you and your colleague the finance Minister make on the potential risk to the public purse in regard to the state of the loans already made to the airport? Can you just confirm that your assessment that you made last week to the EIS committee remains the same today as well, following the news of Flybe and the concerns around Flybe?

15:30

Can I thank Russell George and say at the outset, 'Yes, my assessment today is the same as it was last week, now that the UK Government has saved an airline, just as the Welsh Government, in years gone by, saved an important airport'? And I am delighted that the UK Government is now an interventionist Government, following in the footsteps of the Welsh Government. Discussions take place regularly between the airport directly and Flybe, and the Welsh Government and the airport. Something in the region of 310,000 passengers were carried from and to Cardiff Airport in the last year—that's 310,000 of the 1.7 million, so it has a considerable impact on the airport.

When we carried out due diligence on the offer of the loan, we factored in various scenarios, including the collapse of certain airlines, and we were confident, based on our assessment, that the loss of Flybe would still allow the airport to operate in a viable and sustainable way. However, it would be with much reduced passenger numbers, and we would wish to see passenger numbers continue to grow rather than to fall, and that's why I'm so very pleased by the outcome of the talks that have taken place between the UK Government and the airline.

But the Government at Westminster could do more to assist in terms of the financial incentives that Russell George has asked questions about today. Just as the Welsh Affairs Committee has recommended, the UK Government could devolve air passenger duty to Wales, and the Welsh Government could then make a decision on how it utilises APD in order to incentivise not just the use of Cardiff Airport and routes from it, but also the transition that airlines need to undertake from highly-polluting aircraft to lower-polluting aircraft. We could model an APD regime that allows us to incentivise the use of Cardiff Airport by airlines that operate those lowest-emitting aircraft. 

Further measures that could be undertaken to improve the range of journeys that are undertaken and offered from Cardiff Airport include support for the public service obligation routes that we have proposed to the UK Government, but which to date it has decided not to proceed with recommending to the European Commission. If it would support those public service obligation routes, then a significant increase in passenger numbers would be injected into the business model of the airport.

I am confident—based on a growth in revenue of over 34 per cent in the last year and a positive earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the second year running—that the airport stands in a very strong position. But the whole of the aviation sector right now is going through a difficult period, and that's why it's absolutely right that not just the Welsh Government but the UK Government, as demonstrated by yesterday, stands ready to help the sector.

It's absolutely vital in terms of economic growth. It's vital in terms of providing direct and indirect jobs, such as the 2,500 that Cardiff Airport supports in south Wales. And it's absolutely vital in keeping communities within Wales and the UK better connected than they would otherwise be without those airports. For example, would Anglesey Airport be viable without Cardiff Airport? I very much doubt it, Llywydd. 

I'm glad you've finally got around to discussing or mentioning Anglesey Airport, because Flybe is important to Cardiff Airport because it is a link to a number of important destinations, but Flybe also have flights that begin and end in Wales—the flight between Cardiff and Ynys Môn. And that flight, in itself, has become very important for individuals, for businesses, but also for the governance of Wales, which is very, very important here. Shrinking Wales and making it easier for Government Ministers, as you will well know, to travel to and take a direct interest in what's happening on the ground in other parts of Wales is very, very important and we shouldn't forget that. 

I think many of the questions have been asked already, but I'm eager to know, given the importance of Flybe to Wales, what role you will seek to play now in this review of regional connectivity that UK Government is promising, because we would want that to be an active role. And also, what will you do to increase the urgency of the pursuit of the devolution of APD? We're in agreement that it needs to happen, but how do you use this particular juncture as a way of upping the stakes, if you like, and making the case even stronger for an early move towards devolution of APD? 

15:35

Can I thank Rhun ap Iorwerth for his questions? He's absolutely right that we need to be shaping the future of air passenger duty in the UK. And, as part of the review that will be carried out by the UK Government, we would expect them not just to consider how APD is applied but by whom. And what is good for Scotland should surely be good enough for Wales and we should have responsibilities for APD devolved.

I've already written to the UK Government regarding yesterday's announcement, stressing the importance that the Welsh Government is part of the review on regional connectivity and the future of APD. I think the decision of the UK Government demonstrates how APD can be used as an enabler to incentivise passengers not to have to travel great distances in order to board their planes and instead use more local and regional airports. And so we'll be, I would expect, right at the heart of discussions and deliberations over the future of APD. 

And with regard specifically to the Cardiff to Anglesey public service obligation, I'm pleased to say that the PSO would have been unaffected if Flybe had collapsed, because it's Eastern Airways that is contracted to support the route. However, Members will be aware that current bookings for that particular service are made via the Flybe bookings service. So, even though it's Eastern Airways that has a backup bookings system, that would, in all probability, have been switched on without delay had Flybe indeed collapsed. 

The Brexit Party welcomes the intervention by the UK Government to enable the airline Flybe to continue its operations, as we recognise its importance to Cardiff Airport. There are some who seek to criticise the Government for their support for Flybe, pointing out that no such support package was forthcoming to Thomas Cook. However, do you agree there is no huge cash injection from the Government for Flybe? They have simply agreed to defer debt sold for air passenger tax for some three months, said to amount to some £100 million.

And it is also true that a proper analysis of the two companies' operations shows why this intervention is justifiable, in that Flybe is almost exclusively a European and British internal passenger carrier, primarily serving British regional airports, giving these regional airports, including, of course, Cardiff, vital access to UK and European airports. Will you also agree with the assertion that the overall debts of Flybe, being only a tenth of the size of Thomas Cook's, are also small in comparison and, therefore, it has a viable future?

The Flybe operation facilitates not only internal holiday travel but also acts as a vital business link, especially where time is of the essence. A trip from Cardiff to Edinburgh, for instance, is possible in a day by air, but virtually impossible by train or car. Flybe is also crucial to other parts of the UK, which include the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, Belfast, and New Quay in Cornwall, which all, of course, link into Cardiff in one way or another. Passengers say that other ways of travel are not an option, with one quoting a trip from London to Newquay by train would take some five hours.

Again, returning closer to home, of course Flybe is a crucial airline for Cardiff Airport, being one of its biggest carriers. So, do you agree it is essential from a Welsh perspective to keep the airline in business? The possibility of cutting air passenger duty could also provide a boost for Cardiff.

15:40

Can I thank David Rowlands for his questions and his comments? I'd agree that the situation faced by Flybe is very different to the situation that Thomas Cook faced. It's absolutely vital that Flybe was assisted in the way that it appears it has been. We don't know the details of exactly how much APD has been deferred. I've also seen reports suggesting that it's in the region of £100 million. This is not a cash giveaway to Flybe; this is vital support that will give it breathing space and enable the owners to be able to inject capital into the business in order to make it viable for the long term. 

It's a rather interesting fact that there has never been a year in the history of passenger aviation in which the aviation industry has actually made a profit on the whole. Every single year sees winners and losers, sees losses and profits, but not in a single year has there been a net profit within the passenger aviation history. That shows how difficult an area of activity passenger aviation is. It shows how competitive it is as well. And it also demonstrates why intervention is, sometimes, required by Governments. 

It's also interesting that, generally, I think British people believe that airports should be in private ownership and only in the hands of private owners, but the fact of the matter is that 86 per cent of the world's airports where passengers are able to fly in and out of are owned by the public sector, and 14 per cent have a private interest in them. It demonstrates, therefore, why the Welsh Government again was right to save Cardiff Airport and maintain its interests in this crucially important piece of infrastructure.

With regard to the support offered to Flybe, it will enable that particular airline to offer services, not just in terms of flights from the UK to Europe, but also flights that ensure communities within Britain are better connected with one another, to ensure that people from more distant parts of the UK are able to travel long haul from our key strategic hubs like Manchester, Heathrow and other major airports. It's absolutely vital, I think, that as we consider the future of air passenger duty, we do so in a way that shows respect to devolved functions and the ability of the Welsh Government to utilise APD in order to inspire and support further growth at Cardiff Airport.

4. 90-second Statements

Wayne Warren, a 57-year-old roofer from Treherbert, became the oldest winner in the history of the BDO world darts championship when he beat fellow Welshman Jim Williams 7-4 on the weekend. The Rhondda has already produced a BDO world champion in Cwmparc's Richie Burnett, so now we have two.

Back in 2001, Wayne believed that he would never play darts again after suffering burns to his upper body and spending 10 days in a hospital burns unit. Nearly two decades after that horrendous incident, he's been crowned a world champion. Wayne's use of the ddraig goch on his flights has assured recognition for our country as well as for the Rhondda.

Playing darts can have benefits, including improved hand to eye co-ordination, strategic thinking and mathematical skills. It's also, of course, a great excuse to get out of the house and socialise and support your local club or pub.

So, I'd just like to say, 'Diolch yn fawr iawn, Wayne Warren', for showing what is possible with determination, dedication and ambition. Diolch also to the other Rhondda darts players like Richie Burnett, Alan Evans, who's also known as 'The Rhondda Legend', and the many others who have brought recognition to the Rhondda and to Wales through the medium of darts. Tidy darts.

There I was, listening to Stormzy on the recommendation of Rhun ap Iorwerth, when an artist more familiar to me came to the attention of the charts. I would like to congratulate my constituent Dafydd Iwan for topping the iTunes chart with his iconic anthem 'Yma o Hyd'. Dafydd's success is a happy marriage between the old rocker and the thriving young YesCymru movement. Dafydd shares the same values as those who successfully elevated him to the top of the charts. Nobody has been as effective as Dafydd in safeguarding our nation and handing it on to the care of the younger generation. 'Yma o Hyd' was recorded on the Sain label in 1981. A company from Llandwrog in my constituency was responsible for that, and it's great to see Sain's contribution to the music scene in Wales getting international recognition. This publicity is an invaluable prelude as we approach Welsh Language Music Day on 7 February. This is a day when the Welsh language and Welsh music come together to promote our culture, and although we may not hear many protest songs next month, we can take comfort that the words from 'Yma o Hyd' are as relevant today as they were nearly 40 years ago.

15:45

The second 90-second statement today is about a Welsh darts player—who would've thought it? This Friday, 17 January, would have been the eightieth birthday of Leighton Rees. Leighton was born in Ynysybwl, the village where he spent much of his life. After school, he worked for a motor spares company, and during this time, he took up darts. He was a regular for his pub and county, and then found fame playing the sport on a wider stage in the 1970s.

Television beckoned. He took part in Yorkshire tv’s The Indoor League, the only player to win the darts tournament element twice. Indeed, such was the fame and name of the Ynysybwl competitor, nicknamed 'Marathon Man', that he turned professional in 1976. The inaugural World Darts Federation World Cup in 1977 featured Leighton as part of the triumphant Welsh team that clinched first prize. Leighton also won the singles tournament. The following year, he triumphed at the initial Embassy world professional darts championship in Nottingham.

After being ranked as world No. 1, his career experienced something of a decline, yet Leighton remained one of darts' most popular competitors. His matches nearly always resulted in full arenas. He enjoyed success on tv's Bullseye, and he is credited for helping to make darts a popular tv entertainment, and he was also a much-loved and respected local figure. A street, Leighton Rees Close in Ynysybwl, was named after him. Leighton died in 2003 aged 63, but the legend of the 'Marathon Man' lives on.

The Deputy Presiding Officer (Ann Jones) took the Chair.

5. Debate on the Finance Committee Report: Inquiry into the Welsh Government's capital funding sources

Item 5 on the agenda is a debate on the Finance Committee report, an inquiry into the Welsh Government's capital funding sources, and I call on the Chair of the committee to move the motion—Llyr Gruffydd. 

Motion NDM7226 Llyr Gruffydd

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales:

Notes the report of the Finance Committee on the inquiry into the Welsh Government’s capital funding sources, which was laid in the Table Office on 4 November 2019.

Motion moved.

Thank you very much, Deputy Presiding Officer. I'm very pleased to be speaking in this debate today on the Finance Committee’s inquiry into the Welsh Government’s capital funding sources. As Chair of the committee, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all those who contributed to this inquiry and to the Minister for Finance and Trefnydd also for her response to our report. The committee welcomes the fact that the Minister, in her response, has accepted all of the recommendations in the report.

Under the Wales Act 2017 and accompanying fiscal framework, Welsh Government currently has an annual capital borrowing limit of £150 million. In June last year, the Minister announced a capital investment package of £85 million, then on 4 November, she announced a further funding of £130 million for key capital investments, and that included £53 million to support businesses in the face of Brexit and to provide extra investment for future developments, such as housing and active travel. Accompanying this announcement was the publication of an updated version of the Wales Infrastructure Investment Plan.

Now, the annual report by Welsh Ministers about the implementation and operation of Part 2—finance—of the Wales Act 2014 was published in December last year. It makes reference to the Welsh Government’s capital borrowing and it states—and I quote—that,

'The take-up of planned borrowing will be carefully considered during each budget period and will only be used when all available conventional, cheaper sources of capital financing have been exhausted.'

The Finance Committee undertook this inquiry to establish how the Welsh Government is using the funding streams available to it, the effectiveness of Welsh Government’s funding strategy and the benefits and risks of specific funding models, in particular the mutual investment model, or the MIM, as we know it through the English acronym.

The nature of the Welsh Government’s capital budget has changed in recent years as the UK Government has placed greater restrictions on the use of capital through the introduction of financial transactions capital. In 2019-20, 14.2 per cent of the Welsh Government’s capital budget was in the form of financial transactions capital. It is only for loan and equity investments in the private sector that this form of capital can be used and it must be repaid to HM Treasury.

In her evidence to the inquiry, the Minister noted that the Welsh Government has to pay back 80 per cent of the total financial transactions capital allocated by HM Treasury. This provides Welsh Government with the opportunity to provide interest-free loans or very low interest loans to the private sector to invest in relevant infrastructure, for example, housing projects.

The committee felt that the evidence received from stakeholders demonstrated the need for the Welsh Government to consider how financial transactions capital could be better used to support housing providers and also how local government capital borrowing powers could be used more effectively. This is particularly important given the evidence that capital infrastructure is deteriorating, and the committee recommended that the Welsh Government works closer with local government to deliver a more integrated approach to delivering infrastructure investment at a national and local level.

During the course of the inquiry, one of the key themes that emerged was the need for Welsh Government to plan for the longer term and to match funding sources to projects in order to provide a clearer picture of how much capital borrowing will be required in the future.

The committee welcomes the revised WIIP, given that it provides further details on the proposed infrastructure investments by the Welsh Government. However, during the inquiry, stakeholders highlighted the lack of clarity on how the Welsh Government currently prioritises projects at present. One witness suggested that any long-term investment plan should be published in full. The Minister did inform the committee that the Welsh Government has set up a National Infrastructure Commission for Wales to have that longer term view, looking five to 30 years ahead. According to the Minister, this group will be making recommendations on economic and environmental infrastructure needs in the longer term across Wales. In her response to our report, the Minister added that the Welsh Government would be responding to the new commission’s recommendations following the publication of its first report in 2021 and will be looking at how this can influence the Welsh Government’s approach to borrowing.

The committee heard evidence that risk varies across a project’s lifecycle and that the highest risk is in the construction phase. The risk should be assessed at each stage of the project and consideration should be given to matching funding sources to project risk at each stage. The committee believes that this would provide a more effective way of allocating funding than the Welsh Government’s current preferred method, namely to use the cheapest source of borrowing first that would also enable the Government to maximise available capital while minimising financing costs.

The inquiry also included a substantial amount of evidence comparing and contrasting private finance initiatives first introduced by the UK Government in 1992, and the mutual investment model, the MIM I mentioned earlier, which was recently developed by the Welsh Government to provide more than £1 billion to finance public infrastructure in Wales. The MIM is based on the non-profit distributing model of the Scottish Government and the Welsh Government worked closely with the Office for National Statistics and the European Investment Bank to develop the new model with the aim of ensuring that no debt liability is recorded on the Government’s balance sheet. This should mean that it will not be included in the Welsh Government’s capital borrowing limits and should provide Welsh Government with an independent borrowing stream.

The comparative analysis suggested that MIM represents an improvement on aspects such as community benefits and oversight of project contracts, but it is difficult to ascertain a significant difference between the two models. In particular, it is unclear how MIM minimises financing costs or how it offers greater value for money than previous PFI models.

One of the suggested benefits of MIM highlighted in the inquiry was the opportunity for the public sector to take up to 20 per cent of the total equity in a project and therefore a share in any returns. Taking equity in a project would also allow the public sector to have a representative on the project board as a shareholder and this would give the public sector the opportunity to influence project decisions. However, the committee felt concerned that the existing governance arrangements might not be sufficiently robust to effectively mitigate potential conflicts of interest that may arise as a result of Welsh Government being both a shareholder and a client.

We heard evidence that while the development of the MIM model attempted to address some of the issues around the complexity and inflexibility of PFI contracts, MIM contracts remain complex and reasonably rigid according to witnesses. The committee recommended that the Welsh Government reviews the level of expertise in place for managing these contracts periodically to maintain this expertise and ensure effective delivery throughout the lifecycle of any MIM projects.

Evidence also suggested that careful consideration should be given to the selection of projects to be delivered through MIM. Projects with complex requirements, high-tech assets or innovative projects are not deemed appropriate to deliver through MIM. Projects that are considered to be stable over time such as the building of roads, schools and hospitals are more appropriate for MIM funding. The committee was satisfied that appropriate projects had been chosen to be delivered through MIM and recommended that the Welsh Government continues to use MIM to fund projects that require continuity over the lifetime of the contract and where the private sector can deliver the greatest value for money.

Several other finance models were highlighted as part of the committee’s inquiry and Members believe that Welsh Government should continue to explore alternative methods of financing in order to be more innovative with the funding available and to unlock further private investment for capital projects in Wales.

Finally, the Welsh Government also told us that it was seeking prudential borrowing powers to support its capital infrastructure programme and the majority of committee members agreed that the Welsh Government should continue to petition for these powers.

I have run through the report very quickly. I'm looking forward to hearing the comments of Members and, of course, the response of the Minister. Thank you. 

15:55

While alchemists wanted to turn base metal into gold, politicians want to get private money cheaply into public projects, thus avoiding falling foul of the public sector borrowing requirement and being capped by the Treasury. The latest attempt in Wales is the mutual investment model that levers in private capital to support public sector projects. When launching the mutual investment model the now First Minister, when he was Finance Minister, said:

'The mutual investment model includes important obligatory long-term provisions to secure community benefits, to create apprenticeships and training places for Welsh workers and for sustainable development, in which the private sector partner supports delivery of the well-being of future generations Act. It incorporates our commitment to an ethical employment code and allows us to maximise the benefits of our sustainable procurement practices. The model also enables the Government to exert influence over the chosen private partner to ensure that the public interest is protected. Where we invest in schemes, this influence will be exercised by a public interest director, and this is an important advance on what has been secured in other public-private partnership models in other parts of the United Kingdom. This ensures robust transparency in terms of access to board-level information, alongside a range of reserved matters to protect public funds and the public interest.'

All the above will come with a cost. The private sector will factor in the cost of all these nice things we've added when they put in the price. What you're doing is you're paying for it, and I think that sometimes, we seem to think that the private sector's going to give us something for nothing. They don't. They're interested in making a profit—that's not a criticism of them, but that is what they're interested in doing. You can ask them to do anything whatsoever and they will. What they will do, though, is make you pay for it.

The current Finance Minister said in Plenary in February 2019:

'From the outset, our intention has always been to ensure that the mutual investment model promotes the public interest in the widest possible definition of that term. To that end, the model will deliver positive, additional outcomes in relation to well-being, value for money and transparency, and in doing so will avoid many of the criticisms levied at historic forms of public-private partnership—in some cases, criticisms that the Welsh Government was among the first to raise. For example, you'll recall that successive Welsh Governments have criticised the now discredited form of PFI....In relation to well-being, private partners with whom we contract using the mutual investment model will be obliged to help the Government deliver the objectives of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. They will need to deliver stretching community benefits, with penalties for non-delivery.'

So, if there's a penalty for non-delivery, what are they going to do? They're going to factor in the penalty, because it's inevitable. They're not charities; they're doing this to make money. Every time you put anything like that in, you're going to pay a price for it.

'They will need to adopt the code of practice for ethical employment in supply chains. And they will need to build our infrastructure with long-term sustainability and environmental efficiency in mind....We've also developed a new project assurance tool that all MIM schemes will be subject to—commercial approval point checks. We have run two of these checks on the dualling of the A465. These checks have been supported by experts from the European Investment Bank and the UK Infrastructure and Projects Authority. I am convinced that rigorous investment appraisal, coupled with robust project assurance delivered by undoubted experts, will result not only in a better understanding of the risks involved in the delivery of major infrastructure projects, but also in a more credible appreciation of the value for money of such projects, and their affordability.'

Well, if the dualling of the A465 shows the success of this financial model I am not sure what failure would look like. Whatever you think of the A465—and I'm sure my colleague, Alun Davies, may well mention it later on—financially, it has not been particularly successful.

'To increase the value for money of our schemes, we have taken a conscious decision not to use the mutual investment model to finance soft services, such as cleaning and catering, which was one of the major criticisms of previous PFI contracts, and nor will it be used to finance capital equipment.

'With regard to transparency, the Government intends to invest a small amount of risk capital in each scheme, ensuring that the public sector participates in any return on investment.'

The return on investment is getting some of your own money back. If it makes £1 million profit, if you've got 20 per cent of it, you get £200,000 of the profit, and the other £800,000 goes to the people involved. You're buying your own profit.

'This shareholding will be managed by a director appointed under the direction of Welsh Ministers onto the boards of those companies delivering our assets.'

Should we really be reassured if dualling the A465 shows the success of this financial model? My concern is, when you strip away all the warm words, what is being done is paying for private capital over a long period of time. Those providing the capital will be looking for a rate of return higher than the cost of borrowing for local authorities, and will also be looking to minimise their risk.

Whilst the worst excesses of PFI—such as not financing soft services and capital equipment charges, such as £20 to change a light bulb—will not occur, it's still a long-term commitment that will have an effect on revenue budgets for decades. For schools it would be cheaper for the Welsh Government to fund local authority borrowing to pay via the aggregate of external finance for the building of the schools, and let them borrow from the Public Works Loan Board.

Until we know the final cost of the projects we don't know much it's going to cost, but finally, Deputy Presiding Officer, really, you've got to be very careful, because it's long-term costs for short-term gain.

16:00

Can I thank the members of the Finance Committee for allowing me to intrude on this debate on behalf of the Welsh Conservatives? I have read with great interest the report that you have produced, and I can see that it's a very thorough piece of work, so I want to commend you all and, indeed, the clerks who have supported you through the process.

Having read the report, very clearly, there are some key recommendations in there that the Welsh Government has responded very positively to, and I'm pleased to see that. It is clear, I think, that the Welsh Government needs to plan its infrastructure investment in a more long-term way in the future in order that we can get some more consistency and a coherent approach to economic development, rather than what I think the report has identified as a sort of piecemeal approach in the past in terms of the way that capital has sometimes been invested.

And, of course, we're nearing the end of the 10-year Wales infrastructure investment plan, and I know that Ministers are working on the next 10-year plan, and I think that this report usefully makes some very decent recommendations as to how that plan might be developed in the future. Of course, we know that the Government has identified a number of different priorities, we've got the climate change emergency as well, which has been declared, and we also know that there is a certain level of uncertainty, I'll acknowledge that, in terms of the way that the UK Government's shared prosperity fund might work.

Now, one of the things that was a key project from the Wales infrastructure investment plan, of course, was the M4 relief road. It was dropped because of the climate change emergency, we are told, but we don't see any proposals at the moment coming forward for green infrastructure in terms of—

16:05

Thank you for giving way. He said it was dropped due to the climate change emergency, but does he recall that the nine or 10-page decision notice didn't mention climate change once?

I do, but I was referring to the rationale of the First Minister, in terms of the First Minister's rationale for rejecting the proposal. We all know, of course, that the independent inspector recommended that the route be progressed. But the point I'm making is that you have to match your infrastructure investment plans with the stated priorities and aims of the Government, and I don't think we've necessarily seen those things joined up in the past, and we have an opportunity, I think, to do so if some of the recommendations in this report are to be implemented. 

I also note, and have reflected on the fact, that this statement has been made by the Welsh Government that you always seek to exhaust all of the cheaper sources of finance before you go on to, perhaps, the more expensive sources of finance. Now, that sounds a very reasonable approach, unless and until you start building risk into the process. And, of course, this is some of the talk that came through in the oral evidence sessions, in particular from KPMG and others, with reference to PFI and the mutual investment model, because when you can share that risk with the private sector, it very often makes sense, even though it might be a more expensive way to borrow. So I think that the Government should reflect on the evidence that came in from the committee about the sort of policy that it appears to have adopted in terms of its reluctance to engage with financing from private sources, because I think, very often—. Yes, we've seen some bad examples of PFI, but there are some good ones out there as well and we shouldn't ignore the fact that there have been some successful PFI operations, and I think that the mutual investment model has the opportunity, potentially, to demonstrate a different approach that does deliver better value for money in a way that those PFI initiatives of the past may not always have done.

Can you name a PFI scheme that, over its lifetime, has been value for money?

I can point to examples in Conwy where new schools were built that were absolutely and have been value for money. I can also point to the investment that has gone into Colwyn Bay in my own constituency from Conwy County Borough Council in the investment in its new headquarters, which has been a partnership with the private sector, which seems to be demonstrating value for money. But I can also point to some very bad examples as well of PFI initiatives where, clearly, the taxpayer appears to be getting a raw deal. You mentioned the Heads of the Valleys road, and we all know that the control over capital expenditure has been problematic with some of the Welsh Government's projects, and I think it is imperative that we all, in this National Assembly, hold the Welsh Government to account where things have gone wrong. But I want to commend the report to the National Assembly, and I'm very pleased to see that the Government has responded positively to the recommendations in it.