Pa dystiolaeth fesuradwy y bydd Llywodraeth Cymru yn ei defnyddio i asesu a yw cynyddu’r isafbris uned o 50 ceiniog i 65 ceiniog wedi lleihau dibyniaeth ar alcohol, yn hytrach na lleihau faint o alcohol a brynwyd neu’r defnydd niweidiol a fodelwyd yn unig?
Minimum Unit Pricing for alcohol was introduced with the aim of making an important contribution towards tackling the health risks associated with excessive alcohol consumption by reducing the availability of cheap, high-strength alcohol among hazardous and harmful drinkers. The policy has been successful in reducing these harms as highlighted by the independent evaluation of the legislation noting that the availability of very cheap, high-strength alcohol has reduced.
The intended effect of this legislation was and continues to be to tackle alcohol-related harm, including alcohol-attributable hospital admissions and alcohol-specific deaths in Wales, by reducing alcohol consumption in hazardous and harmful drinkers. However, it is just one of a multitude of health policies implemented to help tackle inequality and improve health outcomes.
The latest ONS data shows there were 538 alcohol-specific deaths in Wales registered in 2024, a decrease of 24 deaths since 2023 (4%). This is a positive step in the right direction and is something we will be monitoring closely in the future.
The Health and Social Care Committee as part of its report on the implementation of MUP in June 2025, recognised its preventative potential in reducing the likelihood of future alcohol dependency. The committee reported that the independent evaluation of minimum unit pricing, published in January 2025, provided reassurance any further price increase would require ongoing monitoring and a more robust and comprehensive evaluation after any price increase.
The Sheffield Addictions Research Group (SARG), University of Sheffield were commissioned to provide modelling work setting out updated evidence for Wales about the likely impacts of continuing with minimum unit pricing beyond 2026. Over a 20 year period, the increase is estimated to prevent 902 all cause deaths and 628 alcohol specific deaths in Wales. As Minimum Unit Pricing is targeted mainly at hazardous and harmful drinkers, over the same time period, it is estimated to reduce hazardous drinkers by approximately 6,363 and harmful drinkers by approximately 4,906.
Any future evaluation of MUP will consider key outcomes such as alcohol-related hospital admissions, deaths and impacts on dependent drinkers, providing a stronger evidence base for assessing the effectiveness of the policy beyond changes in purchasing behaviour alone.
We will continue our efforts to support dependent drinkers through the support we provide to our Area Planning Boards (APBs), who commission Substance Misuse Services.