Cynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru

Order. I call the National Assembly to order.

The first item this afternoon is questions to the Cabinet Secretary for Environment and Rural Affairs. The first question is from Nathan Gill.

Thank you. Action to prevent littering is focused on both enforcement programmes and collaboration across key partner organisations working to change public attitudes and behaviour through community involvement and education. Encouraging people to take pride in their local environment and to take action themselves will lead to stronger and longer lasting improvements.

Thank you very much. Next month, my local authority on Anglesey is moving to three-weekly rubbish collections, having decided against four-weekly collections for now. In August, all but three local authorities met their targets for recycling, which is very good—I mean, that’s a good achievement—including all of the north Wales authorities. In Anglesey’s case, we also met that target. We did that whilst collecting every fortnight. Can you people explain to the people of Anglesey why it is that we are now going to be moving on to three-weekly collections, which feels to me a bit like punishing people who have actually achieved what they set out to achieve?

It’s not for me to explain to the people of Anglesey why they’re going to three-weekly rubbish collections; that’s for Anglesey council to explain. However, you’ll be aware that this is recycling week, and if people are recycling properly, bearing in mind we have weekly recycling collections—I think we’ve got a very good story to tell on recycling in Wales; we’re the fourth best country in Europe—then maybe there wouldn’t be so much rubbish in the black bins. That’s what we’re concentrating on now, because 50 per cent of the rubbish that goes into black bins, we think, could also be recycled.

Minister, having spent many happy hours walking 10 miles a day through the streets of Llanelli during the election campaign, I witnessed at first hand the litter problem we have in the town. I’m now discussing with the local authority setting up on a cross-party basis a litter taskforce for the town. One of the issues that comes back time and again on Facebook from residents is the unintended consequence of the guidelines about the number of black bags that can be put out and the result this has on increased fly-tipping in back lanes. Could the Minister give some thought, when applying recycling targets, to what the unintended consequences might be and how they may be mitigated?

We certainly don’t want to see an increase in fly-tipping, and I commend you for organising a litter taskforce. As I say, I think we’ve got a really good news story to tell on recycling. It’s up to local authorities how they organise their collection of rubbish and recycling and it’s also up to local authorities how they enforce the laws in relation to litter, because it is a crime to litter. I think, again, we need to make sure that local authorities are doing that part of their work also.

My question actually follows on from both questions that have been asked previously. Moves to trial four-weekly collections in Conwy County Borough Council is causing huge uproar, with many families now actually worried about how they’re going to be able to cope. Concerns are obviously about overflowing bins and increased fly-tipping. Fly-tipping in Wales costs the environment £70 million annually. What is your reaction to the switch proposals for four-weekly bin collections—the first in the UK? How are you working with local authorities to improve on what is only a 0.2 per cent success rate on enforcing and prosecuting those guilty of fly-tipping?

I refer the Member to my two previous answers. Whether Conwy council have four-weekly, three-weekly, two-weekly collections is a matter for Conwy council. I don’t tell them what to do. Welsh Government doesn’t tell them what to do. In relation to local authorities and the 0.2 per cent, as I say, littering is a crime and it’s up to local authorities to make sure that they use all their powers of enforcement.

Over the summer, Newgale beach in Pembrokeshire was one of the first in Wales to participate in a campaign to tidy up our beaches. It asked people to join with this campaign to collect litter for just two minutes. I did this over the weekend in Whitesands. I would like to ask whether you’d be willing to applaud this campaign and whether you would also remind people that we wouldn’t need to do this if people took their rubbish home in the first place

Absolutely. I think that’s a really important point in relation to the issue we have with it. I’m really delighted to hear about the very collaborative approach that you had in your scheme in Pembrokeshire. I think it’s an easy way of improving the quality of our environment, just one piece at a time. Two minutes isn’t a great deal of time to ask people to volunteer. So, while that is an individual effort, collectively that brings about a big difference to one of our most precious assets.

Thank you. The Welsh Government Local Energy service launched in January of this year, supporting renewable energy projects delivering local benefit. Our ongoing support since 2010 has helped communities deliver eight completed schemes. Eight more are currently under construction, with a further nine to be constructed by the end of 2017.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary for that response, and also for her recent visit to Awel Aman Tawe, in my constituency, to mark the package of support that the Welsh Government made available. As she will know, there is a good deal of anxiety in the sector about the long-term effects of the UK Government’s changes to feed-in tariffs and enterprise investment scheme eligibility. What assessment is the Welsh Government undertaking of the impact of those changes on the sector in Wales and any changes the Government may need to make to its support package in the longer term?

Thank you. Well, my officials are constantly monitoring the effect of UK Government energy policy to ensure that the sector can continue to deliver for Wales. I think there has been a lack of progress because of that change in support that we’ve seen coming from the UK Government. We’re looking at models that can support renewable energy development to continue. So, for example, Welsh Government is supporting the Energy Local trial in Bethesda, on the local production and use of that energy within the community, to find out whether that model can help projects work, without then having to rely on subsidies such as feed-in tariffs. We’re also considering the shape of support beyond the current Local Energy service that we have, which takes us to December 2017. Clearly, whatever support we have coming forward will need to reflect the change that we’re seeing in the energy sector.

Minister, I think in most countries that have succeeded in encouraging the generation of power locally, they have adapted the market to give an incentive to allow this, including control or access to the grid. I know these powers are not with you, but are you discussing with the other jurisdictions ways in which we could open up the market and encourage local generation?

I haven’t had that discussion since I came into portfolio, but I know my officials are actively having those discussions not just across the devolved administrations, but also with the UK Government.

I now call on the party spokespeople to question the Cabinet Secretary, and first this week is the Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Simon Thomas.

Thank you, Presiding Officer. Cabinet Secretary, you may be aware that the National Farmers Union Cymru are currently conducting a campaign to encourage everyone to buy at least five items of produce from Wales. Can you name the last five items of Welsh produce that you bought, and what are you doing as Minister to ensure that customers know that their produce is from Wales?

I can. I was in committee this morning, and Simon will have heard me say this, but I was in Morrisons in Wrexham on Saturday, and, as you know, I visited Puffin Produce in Pembroke over the summer, where they have their very recognisable packaging. So, I bought leeks and new potatoes, and I also bought a cauliflower—that’s three. I bought some Welsh lamb. I’m trying to think of the fifth quick—maybe some scallops. [Laughter.]

Halen Môn.

Halen Môn—yes.

Halen Môn to season the potatoes—that would do, wouldn’t it?

The Member for Ynys Môn is correct actually.

Excellent. And a little cider to wash it down perhaps.

Turning to the current situation that we face, the Westminster Government have stated clearly that single farm payments and environmental payments under the current common agricultural policy will continue from their point of view until 2020. Can you therefore confirm in the Chamber today that it is Welsh Government policy to do exactly the same thing and that there will be no change to single farm payments in Wales or to payments under the rural development programme until 2020?

Yes, well, as the Member is aware from committee this morning, we are having those discussions now. A great deal of work and activity has taken place over the summer with the farming sector, looking at what we will do post Brexit, and, clearly, the issues around subsidy are very important to our farming industry, and it’s very important that we support them. They are, basically, our food producers, and it’s really important for our food security that we do that.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary for that, but I didn’t hear a guarantee of the payments continuing until 2020. If she is just able to confirm that, it would be useful for everyone concerned, I think, because we can then discuss what comes afterwards, but at least we know what’s happening now.

The other issue I wanted to raise with her was that there was some confusion from the First Minister yesterday around access to the single market, which may be through a free trade arrangement, which can involve tariffs, or membership of the single market, which is something that comes, of course, with freedom of movement. Within freedom of movement, does she agree with me, and also the Wales Governance Centre, that migrant workers play an important part in the rural economy? The Wales Governance Centre says this:

‘Research on EU migrants to Wales shows no associated increase in unemployment of UK nationals in the sector, with migrants entering hard-to-fill vacancies’,

and, of course, seasonal vacancies. There are 34,000 non-UK born workers employed in this sector. So, what discussions have you had with the Westminster Government for the continuation of this important migrant workforce for Welsh agriculture, and food production as well of course, which is associated with it, and doesn’t this rather beg the question, as we are talking about potentially a visa-based system, or a points-based system, that, really, Wales needs a say, if not its own migration policy?

Thank you. Sorry, I thought you said ‘beyond 2020’. Absolutely; we know we’re getting that money until 2020. We have that assurance, and, absolutely, that’s the case. In relation to your question regarding migrant workers, I think you’re absolutely right. Both the agricultural sector, and probably more so the food processing sector, relies on migrant workers, and they’re again part of our ongoing discussions as to how we take the sector forward post Brexit. But, clearly, it is a very important issue, and I know both the agricultural sector and the food sector are very concerned about how they are going to fill those very hard and difficult positions.

The Welsh Conservatives’ spokesperson, Paul Davies.

Diolch, Lywydd. Cabinet Secretary, following the EU referendum vote in June, you said that Brexit offered the chance for a made-in-Wales approach to farming. In light of that statement, what specific action has the Welsh Government taken over the summer to eradicate bovine TB in Wales?

As you know, we have our eradication scheme, and I’ve already said that we’re having a close look at that, and I’ll be making a statement in this Chamber next month.

Well, making a statement in the next few weeks isn’t good enough, Cabinet Secretary, because the Government’s own figures—your figures—show a 37 per cent increase in the number of cattle slaughtered in Wales in the 12 months to May this year, and, in my own county of Pembrokeshire, there was a staggering 61 per cent increase on the previous year. Now, it’s clear to me that this Welsh Government and successive Labour-led Welsh Governments just don’t do rural affairs, given their failure to address this devastating disease, which continues to blight our farmers. Therefore, will you now commit to pursuing a more comprehensive package for dealing with bovine TB that includes a holistic approach to dealing with this disease, and will you confirm that no option is off the table, including a possible managed badger cull, so that we can actually tackle the disease in cattle and in wildlife?

What the Member also fails to mention is that we’ve seen a 16 per cent decrease in new herd incidents, and whilst I don’t want to see an increase in the number of cattle that are slaughtered, given the fact that we are testing so hard, I don’t think we can expect not to see an increase in the reactors. I’ve already said that I’m considering all options over the summer. I’ve said that many times since I came into post four months ago, and I will be making a statement next month.

Cabinet Secretary, there are very real concerns for the future of the Welsh farming industry should this issue not be dealt with effectively and efficiently? There are concerns it will put Welsh farmers at even more of a disadvantage once we leave the European Union. So, how will you, as the Cabinet Secretary for rural affairs, guarantee that Welsh farmers will not be put at a disadvantage because of the Welsh Government’s failure so far to tackle this disease? And will you confirm for the industry today that bovine TB will be tackled in this Assembly, so that farmers can be confident that they actually won’t suffer weaker trade deals once we actually leave the European Union?

I think it is being dealt with in the manner to which you refer already, and has been for several years. The issue you raise around trade after we leave the EU, I think, is a very pertinent one and one that I’ve already discussed with the sector and will continue to discuss at both the ministerial level and with my officials also.

UKIP spokesperson, Neil Hamilton.

Of course, talk is one thing and action is another. We’ve seen lots of talk and no action. Actually, the position is even worse, I’m afraid, than that which Paul Davies pointed out because today the figures have been announced for the next month after May and they’re even worse. In the 12 months to June 2016, there were 9,476 cattle slaughtered in Wales—a 43 per cent increase on the same period in the 12 months to last year. So, what decisive action is going to be taken in this area? Each one of these cases is a tragedy for the farmers concerned and indeed, of course, for the animals that are slaughtered. So, this is something that I think is all too often neglected or indeed forgotten by people in the Labour Party. Just because farmers in general don’t vote Labour, they’ve got no time for them at all.

Clearly, the Member for Mid and West Wales wasn’t listening to my answers to Paul Davies. I don’t agree with you that there’s been no action. Again, you just quote the 43 per cent, but you fail to mention the 16 per cent decrease in new herd instances also.

At 740 new herds, in numerical terms, that’s 740 new sets of tragedy and I don’t regard that as in any way acceptable. As regards the Brexit negotiations that are going on, does the Cabinet Secretary not understand that this could be absolutely fatal in these negotiations for the interests of Welsh farmers? Because we all remember what happened with BSE, that even long after BSE ceased to be a problem, the French wouldn’t allow British beef to go into France and I can easily see how, in the course of these negotiations, the situation on TB in cattle in Wales in particular could become a major block on the capacity of the British Government to negotiate tariff-free access for Welsh farming products.

I think it’s a great shame that we’re having to have post-Brexit negotiations at all, to be perfectly honest with you. You heard my answer to Paul Davies. I do understand concerns about that and I will continue to have those discussions. It’s very early days in the post-Brexit discussions, as you are aware.

I’m well aware, of course, that that Cabinet Secretary was on the losing side of the argument with the Welsh people over whether it was a good thing for Wales to remain in the EU. It was notable that the biggest pro-Brexit votes were in seats that Labour has traditionally regarded as their strongest heartland seats, which shows you how out of touch with their own traditional supporters the modern Labour Party is.

But, on another issue that is also of great interest to Welsh farmers, the nitrate-vulnerable zones, we were told that there was to be a consultation exercise on this. Can the Cabinet Secretary tell me when that is going to start, if it is going to start? Does she understand that this also could mean a massive increase in costs for farmers at a time when farming incomes have been plummeting?

We will be consulting later this month.

The revised technical advice note 1 provides a consistent methodology for local planning authorities to annually assess their housing land supply based on the housing requirement figures set out in their local development plans.

Diolch, Cabinet Secretary. The knock-on effects, of course, of the changes to the housing land availability calculation under the revised TAN 1 are now starting to come into play for residents in Conwy and in all authorities across Wales. In response to the TAN 1 consultation, local planning authorities generally disagreed with the sole use of the residual methodology for calculating housing land supply—a method that, according to the Welsh Local Government Association, lacks a degree of realism and can be distorted by build rates to produce unrealistic and unachievable results, whilst at the same time seeing the loss of many of our greenfield sites. Given such a position, Cabinet Secretary, will you look at this in the forthcoming October review of the local development plan for local authorities across Wales and actually put some more common sense into the process? Because, believe me, the sites that are coming forward now in Conwy will be devastating and there’ll be huge losses to our greenfield sites.

I think the reason for having the revision of TAN 1, you’ve just absolutely said. I think that because sites weren’t coming forward, that was why the technical advice note was revised and I think it’s taken the cover off what was taking place before. So, I think it is bedding in now. It has set out a methodology for carrying out the review. That can be applied consistently across Wales, and I think that does provide local authorities with a key indicator for monitoring the delivery of housing to meet the requirements that are set out in their LDP.

There is a need to increase the housing supply in Wales, of course, but those houses have to be the right type of houses and they have to be in the right location in order to meet the true needs of the people of Wales. In your statement on the planning Act in July of this year, you stated that

‘The preparation of Strategic Development Plans should be given high priority by Local Planning Authorities in areas which have completed the first round of Local Development Plans and have issues which would benefit from being considered over a wider geographic area than a single Authority.’

Do I read into that, therefore, that you now see the need for the balance to be restored in the local planning system, where population projections have often been swollen out of all proportion and have led to harmful developments, first of all in our urban areas because too much greenfield land is having to be used and, secondly, in Welsh-speaking communities, where there’s a threat to the language balance?

Thank you. The strategic development plans came from the planning Act, as you said, and it was to try and get local authorities to work much more closely cross border. Unfortunately, at the current time, there doesn’t seem to be much discussion between local authorities, apart from the 10 south-east Wales local authorities in relation to the city deal—I think that’s part of their discussion around it. So, I have asked my officials to have discussions with local authorities to see what more we can do to encourage discussions regarding SDPs.

The local development plan provides residents with a framework within which to challenge planning applications and have a say in what happens in their area. Without the LDP, residents are disadvantaged and developers have the potential to ride roughshod over local authorities and residents. What measures does the Welsh Government have in place to ensure that each local authority has an LDP in place?

It’s very important that LDPs are in place. My officials monitor this very carefully. We have just a handful, now, of local authorities who haven’t got them in, and we monitor that to ensure that they come in within the timeline. What an adopted plan means is that local authorities and communities can then positively steer and influence the future to their benefit, rather than being dictated to by others, as you said.

Thank you. The recent scallop fishery consultation saw a significant level of responses. My officials have analysed all of the responses together with the latest scientific evidence. I am currently considering advice and will issue a written statement once I have made a decision on the proposed fishery in Cardigan bay.

Thank you. Many people are awaiting this decision on both sides of the argument, as it were. May I just place on record that I have met with petitioners, although some people think that I haven’t, but that you, as Minister, haven’t met with those petitioners? I think that is the case. Are you now willing, now that the consultation is over, to meet those petitioners who want a ban on scallop fishing in Cardigan bay, to see what their arguments are? Do you think that the problem that we have here in finding solutions to complex issues stems from the fact that the Government doesn’t yet have a national marine plan and, therefore, we don’t yet have the tools to tackle the problems that emerge when people disagree on the best way to maintain habitats and maintain fishing too?

I was asked literally by tens and tens of people to meet to discuss this and, as you are aware, my diary just wouldn’t allow it. I’d be very happy to meet with you if you wanted to come along and bring some of the concerns forward, because it just was not possible to meet with everybody. However, we have taken each one of the responses into consideration. It is a very complex issue, and I’m very keen to have a marine plan. I’ve already met this week with officials, and you will be aware that it’s currently being drafted. The result of the European referendum has caused a bit of a hiatus in bringing forward the marine plan, but I do hope to consult on the draft plan probably in the middle of next year.

Cabinet Secretary, in June, I was honoured to be appointed Wales Environment Link’s species champion for the bottle-nosed dolphin. On Friday, weather permitting—who knows—I will visit Cardigan bay’s special area of conservation. You will know that that bay is home to semi-resident populations and it’s a particularly important nursery ground for females and their calves. So, my question to you before my visit on Friday is: what message can I send back to the people who are concerned about protecting both the iconic species and that special area of conservation, that should the Government decide to allow scallop fishing further within that special area of conservation we won’t return to the damage that was clearly evident in 2010 that actually reduced scallop fishing within that area?

Well, I wasn’t offered the blue-nosed dolphin. I’m looking at my colleague, Lee Waters, just in case: he was the hedgehog. But, I think the point you raise is a very important one and it’s about getting that balance and I am aware there were difficulties back in 2009-10 with scallop fishing. I think the message you can take back is that we are considering all responses and we want to get that balance right. It’s not just about one species: it’s about all our species.

Cabinet Secretary, as part of the consultation there was some discussion about the establishment of a management advisory board to assist the Welsh Government in the oversight of the fishery. Can you, therefore, confirm that it is still the Welsh Government’s intention to create this board and, if so, can you confirm and update Members on where we are in terms of its development, if that is the case?

As I say, I will be issuing a written statement and that detail will be within the statement.

Our Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 enable Wales’s resources to be managed in a more proactive, sustainable and joined-up way. Our statutory climate change targets and carbon budgeting help provide certainty and clarity for investment and business. This legislation gives us one of the most progressive and comprehensive statutory frameworks in the world.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary. I’m sure, like me, you are a great supporter of rural businesses. However, there is a lot of tension between some of the very large rural businesses, a number of which I have written to you about in the past, and the impact they have and, indeed, I would go so far as to say, the blight effect that they have on local residents in the areas that they are next to. I’ve raised these as matters with both local authorities and with Natural Resources Wales to ensure that these rural businesses actually behave within the law, within the guidance, and try to mitigate the effect of their business upon their communities. Both Natural Resources Wales and the local councils have come back to me again and again and again and said they do not have the statutory powers to take such actions. Cabinet Secretary, I wonder if you would please review what statutory powers these organisations have so that they are able to undertake comprehensive and fair enforcement, not to stifle business, because none of us want to see that, but to ensure that the tension between a business and the local community that it operates in is fair and equal for all.

Yes, I absolutely agree with you. It is really important that they have those powers. I’ll certainly look into Natural Resources Wales to make sure that they have those powers. I am aware that you have written to me on several occasions about businesses in your own constituencies and I know we have corresponded. But, I’ll be certainly very happy to look because it’s really important, for instance, that environmental impact assessment regulations—. They require projects to have very—. You know, the ones that are very likely to have significant impact on the environment, they have to be subject to consent before they can proceed, so it’s really important that this is going ahead.

Cabinet Secretary, I’ve had a number of people approaching me in the Aberavon area who are concerned about the location of the turbines in the Swansea bay development because they are concerned that it will impact the flow of water into the sea and how that will impact their ability to be part of the processes that they enjoy in that area. Have you had an opportunity to look at that issue of the tidal lagoon and have you been able to discuss that with them to ensure that that wouldn’t happen if the tidal lagoon development were to go ahead?

I had my first meeting this week in relation to to the Swansea bay tidal lagoon, but I didn’t look in depth at the point you raise. But I’m very happy to write to you—to do so and to write you.

David Rowlands.

Sorry, no.

Thank you. Precision agriculture is one of the many modern farming practices that make production more efficient. The Welsh Government supports this through Farming Connect. Examples include toward precision farming in ruminant livestock, run at Aberystwyth University Gogerddan farm, and variable-rate fertiliser use in grassland, at Troed y Rhiw farm in Aberaeron.

Thank you, Minister. Some estimates suggest that farm production could increase by as much as 30 per cent through the use of big data and analytics. Leading thinkers in innovation are identifying precision agriculture as the most important development in modern farming, encouraging the efficient use of scarce resources and minimising the use of harmful chemicals. I’d urge the Minister to be bold in this area in encouraging a new industry to Wales. Would the Minister convene a roundtable of experts to make sure that we are doing all we can to be at the forefront of this important innovation?

I think there is probably quite a bit of work going on in the background, so I’d certainly consider doing that, but you are quite right, it uses satellite precision data, remote sensing devices, proximal data-gathering technology, and it does enable people to make decisions in a different way. I think you’re right; we need to optimise the returns on the inputs, so I’ll certainly consider that.

Minister, I’m very pleased to hear that you’re paying attention to this very important field, but what work are you specifically doing, or your officials doing, to engage with the education sectors—not just higher education, but also the further education sector—in maximising the potential benefits that precision agriculture can bring to the yields, particularly in terms of crops, across Wales in the future? I know that there’s a great deal of interest in Coleg Llysfasi in my own constituency in this emerging field of agriculture, and I just wonder what work, specifically, you might be doing with them.

I haven’t done any specific work with the FE sector. I’m aware the example I gave you was with the HE sector, and we’re doing quite a lot across several universities. But I’ll certainly look into it and write to the Member.

Thank you. Our policy is to deliver programmes that bring together local people, groups, businesses and organisations to deliver services to improve where they live or work. Empowering people to protect their own surroundings helps us tackle environmental inequality. I also issued a written statement yesterday on the launch of a 12-week consultation on how Wales can do better in the management of air and noise pollution.

Thank you for that, Cabinet Secretary. I believe the doorstep environment, as it’s termed, matters very much to very many people in Wales, given the number of people who live in those particular environments. I believe that if they feel positive about their environment and view it as a quality environment then they are far more likely to feel interested and engaged in the environment in general, and that translates to good recycling performance, for example. So, I wonder if you could tell the Chamber, Cabinet Secretary, how the work of Cynefin, for example, which I think did a lot of good work in terms of those doorstep environments, will be built upon as we go forward, given that that particular scheme no longer exists?

Yes, thank you. The Cynefin programme piloted a new way, I think, of involving communities in the local delivery programmes and services that were intended to benefit them. We’ve now extended our contract with Severn Wye Energy Agency for a 12-month period in order to take forward a delivery support programme across Wales that will build on the learning and the expertise that was developed in the Cynefin programme. I think the momentum that we did see in the Cynefin programme must be spread through the influence of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and that momentum must carry on. We are now working with the FG commissioner to further spread best practice in community involvement.

Neil McEvoy.

Mohammad Asghar.

Thank you, Madam Presiding Officer. One way of improving the environment in inner urban areas is to encourage the setting up of community green spaces. Tesco is using the money raised by its carrier bag charge to support community participation in the development and use of open spaces. Will the Cabinet Secretary join me in congratulating Tesco, and what more can the Welsh Government do to increase the number of community green spaces in inner urban areas in Wales?

Yes, thank you, and I certainly will commend Tesco. I visited one in my own constituency, supported by Tesco. We are very much committed to working with local communities in order to enhance green spaces in our urban areas.

The greening of the urban environment, I think, is very important for the health and emotional well-being of residents, and I wondered if the Cabinet Secretary was aware of the community garden movement in New York. I saw some of the community gardens in the lower east side over the recess and it was absolutely staggering how every tiny little bit of spare land was converted to vegetable growing, flower growing, beekeeping—absolutely stunning, and I wondered if there was some way that we could follow that.

Yes, absolutely. I wasn’t aware of it particularly in New York, but I would be very happy to ask my officials to give me a briefing and also speak to Julie about it. [Interruption.] Or go there—I wasn’t going to say that. [Laughter.]

The Glastir woodland creation scheme provides financial support for new woodland creation in both rural and urban areas of Wales. Glastir woodland restoration supports replanting of woodland infected by phytophthora ramorum. The Welsh Government opened a further window for expressions of interest for both schemes on 30 August.

Thank you. You replied to me by letter on 18 August after I’d written to you about the Confederation of Forest Industries—or ConFor—correspondence on obstacles to commercial woodland creation and management in Wales and some solutions. In your reply you said that your predecessor had replied to the same document in February, which, of course, he had, but they advise that he only replied to one of the points in the document. They did write back but because the election took over they never got a response to that correspondence. He said that he’d asked his officials to explore their suggestion that clear advice and guidance be provided to applicants with Natural Resources Wales, but they’ve not heard anything since then. You referred to the action plan for 1,000 hectares of new woodland creation by 2020, but their members have highlighted reasons why this is unlikely to succeed unless the obstacles are resolved, and they’ve yet to receive an answer to their questions on restocking to the Natural Resources Wales board. How will you, in a positive mind—because they want to be positive and constructive—engage and help fill in those gaps so that a positive dialogue may go forward to the benefit of all, and particularly the natural environment?

I’m very keen to engage positively with them. I’m sorry that they haven’t had a response over the bridge of the election, but I’ll certainly look into that for you. I’m not sure if you said it was our goal to plant 1,000 hectares—it’s actually our goal to plant 10,000 hectares of new woodland by March 2020, and I have asked officials to give me assurance that that will be the case. I am concerned to hear that there is some concern from the sector, as you say, but I’ll certainly look into it and will be very happy to meet them.

I recently met with a farmer in my constituency who’d cleared land to create a new woodland under the Glastir scheme. However, he was having problems because that land had since been invaded by Himalayan balsam, which is a problem throughout his farmland, and there was a possibility that that had actually crept down the hill from a Natural Resources Wales site as well. So, I was wondering if you could tell us what approach the Welsh Government will be taking to tackle Himalayan balsam and other invasive species during the fifth Assembly.

We are supporting catchment scale control work on Himalayan balsam through local action groups. We’ve also supported the release of a new pathogenic fungus at five sites across Wales, with the Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International, as a biocontrol agent to tackle this pest.

We’re all very aware of the benefits of woodland creation in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, flood alleviation, carbon capture and so many other of our important natural systems for this and future generations, but I wonder if she’s had time to reflect on her visit to the Spirit of Llynfi Woodland—30 hectares of reclaimed land from the former Maesteg washeries and Coegnant colliery, and an active woodland with tremendous engagement with the local community. What defines it is not just the deciduous woodland planting and the orchards and the natural beauty, but the fact that it is in one of the areas where the most targeted interventions in health and education and other matters are going on. Isn’t it right that the woodland action plan, together with the well-being of future generations Act, means that we need to see the right trees in the right place, and that means close to communities like this?

Yes, absolutely. I very much enjoyed my visit, despite the very heavy rain on that day in August. What struck me about that scheme was the total partnership working in the community, from your environmental organisations to the schools to just local people who came along and helped. To see the thousands of trees that they’d planted was really fantastic.

I am currently considering the implications with stakeholders. Ninety-five per cent of Welsh food and drink is sold domestically, and 5 per cent is exported. Ninety per cent of this 5 per cent is exported to the EU. It is my intention to safeguard and grow this trade by maintaining access to the single market and through Welsh Government support.

Llywydd, I should apologise to the Chamber, because, when I put this question in, I didn’t realise that we would be having not one but two Brexit debates on opposition day.

Cabinet Secretary, you’ll recall that, in July 2015, the UK Government announced that it wanted to see the number of British foods protected under European law increase from 63 to 200. Of the applications put forward to the European Commission, nine were from Wales, and, with the support of the Welsh Government, one was the traditional Welsh Caerphilly cheese. Caerphilly cheese has a long history. As a local Assembly Member—it is a rite of passage as the Assembly Member for Caerphilly; you have got to ask a question on Caerphilly cheese—I want to bring that production back to my constituency. However, it’s important to the production and export of Caerphilly cheese that it has special protection under the protected geographical indication or traditional speciality guaranteed mark on the EU protected food register. Would the Cabinet Secretary therefore update me on the progress of Caerphilly cheese’s application and give me assurances that our impending withdrawal from the EU will not affect the product’s potentially obtaining this highly sought-after protected status?

Thank you. It is good to see the Member for Caerphilly carrying on the tradition of his predecessor in relation to Caerphilly cheese. I think protected food names have huge benefits for Welsh products. As you say, we are actually supporting eight new applications, one of which is traditional Caerphilly cheese. The EU referendum result makes no difference to the processing of applications. So, we’re working very closely with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, because, obviously, they have overall responsibility for all UK applications, and the Commission, to ensure that these applications are both supported and are successful. Until the UK actually leaves the EU, protected food status will remain with that status, and I am very keen to ensure that we have access to that status or, if we don’t after we come out the EU, we have our own or a UK food status, because I think it’s really important that we do have that equivalent status or that protection for our Welsh produce.

I was very pleased to hear that Halen Môn, which does have European protection, of course, was one of the last five pieces of Welsh produce that the Minister bought. I have been discussing with Halen Môn this idea that I’ve been seeking support for of developing a food production park on Anglesey. I am very concerned about what will happen to the RDP in years to come. I did hold discussions with the Minister’s predecessor on the possibility, perhaps through RDP funding, and almost certainly through the use of European funding, of establishing such a food production park on Anglesey, and I was very grateful to her and her officials for responding positively to that idea. I would appreciate confirmation that the Government, under the new Cabinet Secretary, continues to support that concept in principle and is willing to hold further discussions. Will the Cabinet Secretary make a comment on the dangers of Brexit to the future of such schemes and how to overcome that, including the possibility of moving forward very quickly with such a scheme?

I was very pleased to visit Halen Môn over the summer; I managed to harvest some sea salt myself in a very fetching hairnet, but it was great to see such a wonderful company, and the owners are just so dynamic. Again, it was they who told me how much they value that protected food status. I'm very happy to continue to support the concept to which you refer. Brexit has thrown up lots of challenges. You know, it's very early days, but what we need to focus on is the opportunities that Brexit is bringing forward also, and maybe we could have further discussions in that sort of light in relation to your idea for a food production park.

Cabinet Secretary, one of the ways that the food and drink industry can be supported, in particular the red meat sector, is by the promotional levy that is taken on livestock at the point of processing. Now, many Cabinet Secretaries and Ministers, and other Cabinet Secretaries and Ministers from around the UK, have grappled with this promotional levy, because it is at the point of slaughter it is raised, and lots of Welsh livestock go to England to be processed. There is a will and an understanding, as I understand, to review the regulations around this. Have you had an opportunity to familiarise yourselves with the past discussions and, indeed, discuss with DEFRA how the levy could be repatriated to Wales where much of the livestock is finished in its live form but not processed for the market?

I have had the opportunity to familiarise myself with previous correspondence. I've also had discussions with officials about it. I haven't discussed it directly with DEFRA, but my officials have and it's something we're looking at. You will also be aware that my predecessor brought forward a review of Hybu Cig Cymru, and, again, we're looking at the levy in aspects of that as well.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary.

We move on to item 2, which is questions to the Cabinet Secretary for Communities and Children. The first question is from Bethan Jenkins.

I thank the Member for her question. Regeneration activity continues across Wales under the Vibrant and Viable Places capital regeneration programme. This builds on the success of the previous strategic regeneration area programme, which the Member raises and which ended in March 2015.

Can you tell me what work is ongoing to ensure that the Afan valley benefits from the regeneration scheme? I received a letter from Neath Port Talbot council over the summer confirming its intention to locate development work on the coastal corridor in that area, including the upper Neath valley and the upper Swansea valley as areas of strategic growth. But what I’ve found in knocking doors in the Afan area of the valleys is that they feel that things are moving away from that area, that resources are being withdrawn and that they aren’t given the same priority as the coastal belt. So, can you tell us if there are any plans to include this specific area as part of the strategy?

Well, local authorities are the responsible agents for identifying their Vibrant and Viable Places content, and we acknowledge that when we received them from the local authorities. We are looking at the next stage, post VVP. Indeed, if the local authority provides examples of why they wish that to be prioritised, I will consider that carefully.

Minister, I can join with the Member for South Wales West, because I also was going to ask the question about ensuring that the Viable and Vibrant Places project, which we're seeing actually achieving excellent results in Port Talbot, in the Green Park industrial estate being transformed into a lovely green area and social housing, into the regeneration of the old fire brigade station, and the Port Talbot transport hub at the railway station—they're all coming to fruition, quietly, and seeing a change, but we need that change beyond the principal towns in the areas. So, I will then urge, as Bethan did, that you actually look at extending the Vibrant and Viable Places beyond principal towns into outer communities so that they can benefit. I appreciate you indicated that it’s for the local authorities, but perhaps guidance and criteria could be given to local authorities to express that position, because, as I'm sure you'll agree, this is a fantastic scheme to rejuvenate town centres and areas that have been left to go for a while, but those areas are also in the Valleys.

I'm very grateful for the Member's comments and question there. I'm pleased to hear of the positive progress being made in places like Port Talbot, and I look forward to seeing the work when I visit there at the end of the month. We’re providing £11.5 million to support a diverse programme, and the projects you mentioned are certainly contributing to rejuvenation of the town. Of course, as I said earlier on, the local authorities are awash with guidance; they never ask for more in terms of what their requests are, apart from more money, generally, but what I can assure you is that we take the bids from local authorities very carefully and consider them in our consideration about strategic regeneration areas or, now, the Vibrant and Viable Places scheme.

Minister, one of the successes, really, in north Wales of the previous administration’s approach to regeneration has been in Colwyn Bay, where we’ve seen a revitalisation of that particular town. But of course, there are many other seaside towns around Wales that could benefit from a strategic regeneration approach. Will you take on board our policy proposal from the recent Assembly elections for a seaside towns initiative across Wales, so that the wonderful seaside resorts across Wales that have had ailing fortunes in recent decades can turn themselves around, in the same way that Colwyn Bay has done?

I’m grateful for the recognition by the Member that the previous Labour administration of this Welsh Assembly was investing in areas across Wales, including Colwyn Bay. I visited there, with the Member, indeed, to see this great success, and also places like Rhyl and other areas in north Wales have received significant amounts of funding. I think we are currently considering the next stages to VVP and that may include some reference to seaside towns, but it’s something I will have to give some very careful consideration to.

I thank the Member for her question. I strongly believe in effective community engagement in designing and delivering local services. The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 requires public bodies to demonstrate collaboration and involvement in delivering the well-being goals. Communities must be engaged in local government and have their views heard and influence how local services are delivered.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary. I agree with the comment about local communities being engaged, and of course, throughout Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire I’ve encountered a number of voluntary groups. I admire their community spirit and they produce an enormous amount of work on behalf of the communities they represent. However—and there’s always a ‘however’—I am becoming increasingly aware of groups that are set up purporting to represent local communities when in fact they’re merely representing a very narrow sector within a local community—a small group of people within a large town. This very often causes resentment and frustration by the wider community who don’t actually want to set up another group but feel that these smaller organisations are steering their towns and their villages in a way that they don’t want to see. Politicians are lobbied, funding is applied for, funding is received and I wondered what you might be able to do to ensure that there is better guidance for these small organisations. We don’t want to stifle their wonderful spirit, but we do want to make sure that, when they say they represent a village, a town or a group, they truly represent them and not just the narrow self-interest of a very, very small minority.

I’m grateful to the Member for the question and the non-partisan way that she raised it, too. I think many Members in this Chamber could be familiar with the examples the Member sets out. I think what we are very keen as a Government to do is ensure that our funding streams go to the maximum benefit of our larger communities, working with organisations such as the Wales Council for Voluntary Action and the 44 public sector bodies now under the WFG Act. That will be a new sign of the way that we develop policy for local communities and engagement and involvement is a key part of that—being able to demonstrate that to the future generations commissioner and the auditor general and to government is an important process for them.

We now move to questions from party spokespeople, and first of all this week the Welsh Conservative spokesperson, Mark Isherwood.

Diolch, Lywydd. In support of the ‘Let’s Keep on Supporting People’ campaign for 2017-18, which is now gathering speed, I visited a number of projects during the summer. In one, a recovering alcoholic told me that their Supporting People programme essentially saved their life: ‘with their support past and present I have the chance of a much better life’. The second—I won’t refer to any more—said: ‘it was on 12 March of this year I had my last drink. I was so consumed by negative thoughts, ill health and the desire to end everything, I was nothing but a strain on society, a drain on the NHS, police, doctors, nurses, psychiatrists, support workers in mental health, family friends and God knows what else. All these people and resources taken up by my alcoholic state. The cost of all this: incomprehensible. All this involvement and treatment now has given me an opportunity at life once again’.

Do you recognise, as I’m sure you do, that these projects save money for statutory services, and will you be making representations accordingly as we move towards the draft budget for next year?

Yes.

Thank you. You’ll be aware, alongside that, there are two other correlating budgets, particularly the homelessness prevention budget, which was cut by 8 per cent in the current year. A coalition of providers—Shelter Cymru, Llamau, GISDA, Digartref Ynys Môn and Dewis—have made the point that reducing the budget that supports key preventative services, which are integral to the outcome and success of services and provision supported by the other budgets—cutting this is self-defeating. They’re calling on the Welsh Government to protect the homelessness prevention grant, saying that it’s provided a platform for other sources of funds to be deployed into prevention work, that it saves money and that working with Supporting People ensures that as many people as possible are given support early on. How do you respond to that call alongside Supporting People?

I’m very grateful for the Member’s question. I don’t doubt his integrity in raising this with me today, but what I will tell the Member is that our investments have to be strategically managed on the basis of our reducing budgets year on year. What we have to do, and what we’ve done in Wales, is protect the Supporting People budget, whereas is England, under the UK administration, the Supporting People budget has disappeared. We’re very keen that we want to maintain that. I can’t guarantee that it’ll be at the same level, but I can tell you—and the Member raised this specifically on that question around homelessness—we have taken a very different approach here in Wales. The 63 per cent reduction in homelessness figures reported here in Wales is a significant drop for supporting of services. It’s a programme that is now being considered by the UK Government. In Wales, we should be celebrating the prevent work that we are doing. I do recognise the importance of funding to organisations; but can I guarantee that at this points in time? No, I can’t.

My question was, rather, what representations you would be making. Clearly, I appreciate how the budget round works and was not seeking to score party-political points. I fully supported the protection of that budget last year and I will continue to do so into the future, not just because of homelessness, but because of the related impact of early intervention on substance misuse, on domestic abuse and so many other things that lead to costly pressure on statutory services. I hope you will recognise that this is a way to save money and a way to cut budgets by holistic thinking within Welsh Government.

The final leg on the stool for this, alongside those two programmes, is the housing transition fund—supporting people on the edge of society, reducing demand on accident and emergency, encouraging people into employment, helping people reunite with their children and much more. Cymorth Cymru have made the point that—falling to £3 million, I believe, this year, from £5 million last year—that is due to end at the end of this year. But if this could be incorporated into Supporting People, the £130 million, which would be the combined amount, would enable us even further to tackle and prevent and intervene and reduce the costs of the statutory sector as part of a tight budget settlement. How do you respond to that?

I’m under no illusion about how positive the funding stream for Supporting People is and it has a great impact in delivering services in a ‘prevent’ method. My Cabinet colleagues recognise that too and that’s why we have done our best under the previous Minister also to protect as much Supporting People budget as possible. But we cannot continue in the same guise. We’re in a very different space in terms of our financial settlement. We have to have bold, respectful conversations with organisations that deliver services on how they can deliver them better.

UKIP spokesperson—Michelle Brown.

Thank you, Presiding Officer. I’m just going to cut straight to the questions. What is the Welsh Government doing to identify and protect girls at risk of female genital mutilation and what resources have been provided to the NHS, social services and schools to support those measures?

I thank the Member for her question. We legislated in Wales around violence against women and sexual exploitation. We have a programme working with the NHS regarding FGM—and other third sector organisations. It is a priority of my department to make sure that the safety of our communities and individuals should be maintained and I will continue to do so.

Many people from communities where FGM is or has been practised are working hard to prevent FGM in Wales and help its victims. What support is the Welsh Government giving to charities involved in this vital work?

I don’t have any figures for the Member today, but I will write to the Member in terms of further detail. As I said earlier on, this is a very complex area in terms of what is believed to be socially acceptable in some of these circles. It is clearly not. We don’t believe that is the case. And we are working with third sector organisations—sorry, the public sector, like the NHS, and also the police in regard to convictions of individuals who pursue this.

Cultural practices are transmitted down the generations, and FGM in particular is inflicted on girl children by adults, ultimately for the benefit of men in the patriarchal culture. What are you doing to challenge the cultural values that give rise to FGM, particularly amongst males belonging to cultures where FGM is practised?

We have a faith forum, which I chair, alongside the First Minister. We work on the ability to help cultures change from within, rather than them being told what people should be doing. We have to work with sympathetic organisations that can work and operate in that culture or faith. We are having some success, but there’s an awful lot more work to be done in this field.

The Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Bethan Jenkins.

Cabinet Secretary, the last time we had these questions was before the referendum on the EU, and many Members commented on how many anti-poverty schemes are funded by the EU. So, now we’re of course aware that those who campaigned to leave the EU, including some members of the Labour Party, like Gisela Stuart, made a promise that every penny received from the EU would be maintained. But what contingency plans have you made, with your officials, should some of these anti-poverty schemes not be safeguarded?

It’s a very important question the Member raises, and the First Minister has been very clear, in terms of negotiations with the UK Government, on how and when we expect to see funding coming forward. To date, we haven’t had much indication, or much luck on that indication, but he is pressing the UK very hard. We have done some assessments on impacts of Brexit, particularly around the skills, jobs and growth area, which we are particularly concerned about, but what we cannot promise is to mitigate the significant amounts of money that come from Europe through to Wales—that we can backfill that very easily. We have to prioritise our programmes in the future. We are still doing some work on that.

Thank you for your response. There’s been a great deal of concern/interest from much of the political establishment that many of the areas that benefitted the most from European money voted to leave. But in spite of all that funding going to the Valleys, poverty, poor housing and insecure employment remain a fact of life for many people living there. So, this vote could therefore be seen as a verdict of how the Welsh Government has administered billions of pounds of EU money, rather than the institution itself. Do you accept, therefore, that tackling poverty isn’t just about the number you put after the pound sign on the press release, but about how you spend existing budgets, and that if you aren’t giving communities what they really need, or aren’t consulting effectively with them, then warning them that the money is at risk may be seen as a bit of an empty threat to those types of people?

I think the Member raises a very interesting point. And the Member will be aware of her colleagues in Government too promoting and spending some of the European funding across Wales in many years previously.

The issue for me, which is the important point I think the Member was getting to, was the issue around that we shouldn’t scare people about what’s going to happen—we should be offering them hope and opportunity. And what I’m trying to do within this department, around two themes where I’m pushing very hard—. One is about economic resilience for a community, and the other one is about well-being—the community well-being, individual or the broader community. If we can get those two things right, I think we can start to lift people out of poverty. And I met with one of the foundations this morning, the Bevan Foundation, just to talk about some of those issues that we have in mind in terms of changing our poverty strategy as we move forward.

Thank you for that, but I think we do need to have a recognition as well that at least some of those billions have not achieved their intended aim, and I think we need to be open about that fact. It’s certainly the case that funding for anti-poverty programmes is at risk, and contingencies should be made, as you have indicated, to become more resilient.

But we also have to accept that the solutions may involve negligible costs to make savings long term. For example, we tried to legislate on outlawing zero-hours contracts in social care, your Government voted against attempts to phase out priority need, and the end of the Pereira test in the homelessness system so everyone was entitled to housing. So, you can see how we might be able to do this without having to, again, pump millions of pounds into that. How are you looking at new types of initiatives, as a result of this vote, and how then you will be trying to implement them as a Government?

I’ll be making a statement early next month regarding the communities division and our vision for the opportunities for communities across Wales, which will be more detailed in terms of how we see tackling poverty featured at the top of our agenda. The Member made a very general statement there about what hasn’t worked in European funding, but didn’t give me any detail of what hasn’t worked, but I’m more than happy to have a further discussion with the Member. What we should do is not be risk-averse in some of the impacts that we do. We sometimes have to test things in communities, just to see if they do work to make the change, and I think we should be very positive about the programmes we have done and have delivered and not talk Wales down all the time.

I thank the Member for his question. Bringing together a range of services and organisations within community hubs can potentially improve both service delivery and customer access.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary. I’ve been working closely with the Raglan village hall committee in my constituency, which is working hard to develop a community hub at the centre of the Monmouth constituency. The Big Lottery have provided funding to develop designs. Can you tell me how the Welsh Government’s community facilities programme is working with organisations such as the Big Lottery to develop community hubs across Wales?

Thank you. I’ve received the letter from the Member that gives full support to the application of Raglan village hall, and you were right to say that they have received a significant amount of money from the Big Lottery in regard to design. The community facilities programme is a capital grant scheme, which provides up to £500,000 for community-led projects to improve community facilities that tackle poverty. This can include community hubs.

I thank the Member for his question. The First Minister has announced our intention to take forward, on a cross-party basis, legislation that will remove the defence of reasonable punishment. I have recently met with the Children’s Commissioner for Wales and will be engaging with stakeholders, including Assembly Members, as this matter goes forward.

I thank the Minister for his response. I’m pleased to hear that there has been some progress since we last questioned him on this issue before the summer, and specifically that he has met the Children’s Commissioner for Wales. I’m sure that he will have received the full support of the commissioner to that objective. Can he now explain how the Government intends to bring some sort of provision through this Assembly, particularly bearing in mind that we need to give Members of all parties the opportunity to, hopefully, support such a measure, and to get wider support for this equality of protection for young people and children?

I thank the Member for his comments. I intend to start negotiations with all parties to see how we can find a collective way forward through this. My initial starting point is to provide a positive parenting programme, where we see a holistic view for families, and support for young people, in terms of a better offer for Wales, and alongside that we will include the legislation that the Member talked about.

I think many parents think that the defence of reasonable punishment has already been abolished, but would the Minister agree that in preparation for the forthcoming legislation, it’s very important to communicate with parents and with families, and can he tell us how he’s going to do that?

I thank the Member for her question. To co-ordinate this crucial work in Government, we’ve established a dedicated parenting team, which will drive forward this agenda. My officials have already started the process of engagement with parents and other stakeholders to inform the development of this legislation. I wish to be inclusive in this process and I’m sure the Member will have lots to add.

Cabinet Secretary, you’ll be supported if you bring forward legislation in this area from this Conservative anyway. [Interruption.] Well, I do recall in previous Assemblies that I was joined by a number of colleagues on these benches in saying it’s time to move on and end this practice. I have to say that I don’t completely agree with the wording of this question, because, clearly, children would be protected in current law from physical attack. We are talking about what previous generations called ‘reasonable chastisement’. But I agree with Julie Morgan, it’s all about supporting parents, and that’s not only just education, but ensuring our public services are there, so that we have effective childcare, for instance, and other areas of support, so that parents don’t feel under great pressure, which sometimes can lead to frustration and a lack of control. So, it’s a whole package. But it is now high time that we passed a law in this area.

I thank the Member for his support. I did a little rough estimate of Members who may be supportive of the legislation, as we move forward, and I think that we’re on the right side of that at the moment. I hope that we can continue that dialogue.

The Member is right about the protection of young people. There is a raft of legislation already in place, but it’s not yet complete and we have to make sure that we provide the opportunity of positive parenting and that’s why I don’t think we should look to criminalise parents, but we should look to support parents, and this is something that I’ll be seeking to do as we move forward.

I thank the Member for Aberavon. The 2015 child poverty strategy sets out our priorities for tackling child poverty across Wales. They include a focus on early years and increasing employability. I am also exploring opportunities to address adverse childhood experiences, reducing their impact on children’s life chances.

Thank you for that answer, Cabinet Secretary. As you will be aware, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation last week published its report, ‘We Can Solve Poverty in the UK’, which highlighted five points. One of those was strengthening families and communities, which comes under your remit. They also include four recommendations. In my constituency of Aberavon, many families are struggling and facing difficult challenges ahead of them. What actions are the Welsh Government taking to ensure that these families are able to benefit from the strengthened family support, such as Families First? Will you guarantee that Families First funding will continue beyond the current stage?

The Member is right to raise these issues for his constituency and many others across Wales. Families First and Flying Start are two very important parts of our tackling poverty and family support programmes. I am seeking to continue those into the future.

Minister, what is your assessment of the recent changes to Jobs Growth Wales and how do you hope to reduce the number of families where no-one is in employment in order to tackle child poverty?

I think we’ve had great success with Jobs Growth Wales and our manifesto commitment to improve and increase to 100,000 apprenticeships across Wales of any age is something that I’m sure the Member would support. There are many things, as the Member recognises, that have an effect on community resilience and family resilience: education, jobs and skills and well-being all being part of that. As I said to the previous Member previously, I will be making a statement later next week about our community vision, about what that programme support should be and how we can develop that for the future.

Confidence and appropriate skills to help people join the workforce, of course, are key to tackling child poverty, and it’s important that children grow up in an environment that values their talents and their aptitudes and that helps them to develop those in order to expand their own horizons. But the adults in the lives of some of these children themselves may need some help to help create that environment. I appreciate that there will be some crossover with one of your colleagues here, but community-based learning is a very important part of helping adults to create that environment. Would you agree with me that some of the courses that are offered in the community could contain elements, such as how to manage budgets and how to set up and market businesses and developing Welsh-language skills, not just as separate subjects, but as part of those basic skills training that you tend to get in community-based learning courses?

I think the Member’s right and what we have to do and what we have done in many areas around the Families First programme is look at the wraparound provision of the family—not just children, but parents and guardians—and about what are its actual needs. I’ve recently been criticised about some action I’d taken on Families First regarding some of the more direct work about how we support families, where we’ve removed some of the financial investment around that and the knowledge base. What I’m very keen to assure Members of is that my priority is about making sure that we have a support mechanism around the family, and whatever the problems are, we can signpost and support them to move on to the next—. It’s about preventative exposure rather than responding to a family or a person who’s in crisis later on in the day.

Cabinet Secretary, Aberavon has some of the highest levels of child poverty in Wales. In one ward, nearly 46 per cent of children are living in poverty. The ‘State of the Nation’ annual report by the UK’s Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission was critical of the Welsh Government’s policies, stating that they were not having the right level of impact. Given the Welsh Government’s commitment to eradicate child poverty by 2020, what changes are you proposing to tackle child poverty in my region over the next three years? Diolch.

The numbers that the Member raised there are troubling to me, too, but they are very fortunate in that they have got a fantastic Assembly Member in Dai Rees in the Aberavon area. He raises these issues with me on a regular basis, and I’m committed to ensuring that we tackle the issues that the Member raised and which are raised in the report. Indeed, I will be coming to the Chamber to issue a statement to Members in order for the Member and others to understand exactly what Welsh Government is doing and what interventions we will be bringing forward.

I thank the Member for her question. Our commitment to children and young people is enshrined in legislation and Brexit doesn’t change this directly. Investing in children and young people is intrinsically a good thing to do. It makes sense for the good of society and for the long-term benefit of the economy.

Minister, the result on 23 June has caused great anxiety amongst many people, and young people are not immune to this. You will be aware, I’m sure, of the large demonstration that took place outside this building in the aftermath of Brexit, which was organised by students. Have you yet considered what impact the potential reduction of research funding for universities will have on the prospects of young people and their ability to reach their full potential? Have you, for example, had discussion with Cabinet colleagues regarding the loss of opportunities from programmes like the Erasmus programme and how that can be mitigated? Finally, will you do everything in your power to support a youth parliament for Wales as a vehicle for young people to articulate their concerns and come together for collective action on important issues that affect them, like Brexit?

I’m grateful for the Member’s comments and questions. Of course, the Member will be aware of the First Minister’s announcement of a Cabinet sub-committee to look at the implications of Brexit and what that means to Welsh Government, and the discussions through the UK, which has already had its first meeting. I haven’t had a direct meeting regarding the research finances with my colleagues, but I believe that is under way with that department.

With regard to the youth parliament, the Government’s position has been very clear: we’re supportive of a youth parliament, but we believe that is a matter for the Commission, and I’m sure the Commission has heard that very clearly, both today and from previous correspondence.

Cabinet Secretary, do you agree with me that it’s very concerning to read the findings of the Children’s Society’s ‘The Good Childhood Report’, which reported that one in seven girls in Wales are unhappy with their lives and one in nine boys are unhappy with their lives as well? What specific action is the Welsh Government going to take in order to reverse this trend, which appears to be getting worse—not just in Wales, but across the United Kingdom—so that we can have some concerted action to deal with this problem?

The Member is right to raise this issue and it does concern me also. I’ve asked my team to look at the implications of that report and how much more we can do, not with just this department, but also through educational support within the school setting and in third sector organisations in relation to how we engage with young people and listen to their views. Often, the older generation do things at children because they think it’s the right thing to do, rather than listening to what the action should be. We’re in that space now of engaging with young people and listening to what has an impact on their lives.

Welsh Government provides funding for local authorities to deliver early education for all three and four-year-olds in Wales. How this provision is delivered is a matter for the local authority, which can choose to deliver it in schools or private and voluntary sector nurseries.

The provision in Wales is very centred on schools, compared to a more mixed economy across the border. Has the Minister considered that many parents might welcome more of a choice between school-based nurseries and independent nurseries and, for example, might like the opportunity, rather than five days of two-and-a-half hours a day, to have a smaller number of fuller days in the week?

Indeed, we have given further consideration to the issue of delivering childcare, and the Member will be aware that our manifesto commitment to provide quality childcare will be brought forward and we will start that programme by the end of next year across Wales. This is about delivering services for young people across the whole of Wales.

It’s generally recognised, of course, that getting graduate level practitioners into early years settings has a very positive impact, as I’m sure you know, on the educational outcomes of those early years. The Government drafted, of course, back in 2014 its 10-year workforce plan on early years childcare and play. Can you tell us when that is likely to see the light of day, because in your letter to the Children, Young People and Education Committee you’re rather ambiguous, shall we say? Can you give us something to work on?

I’m grateful for the Member’s ability to jump to question 15 in this supplementary question that he’s asked today. But, the 10-year draft plan sets out the ambitious plans to develop early years childcare. Work is currently under way to assess the impact of a number of policy developments before finalising the workforce plan. I think, actually, one of the issues now is about the childcare provision programme that we are seeking to do. I know the Member is supportive of quality childcare and quality served childcare. That is something that we have to work through as well. We are working with other departments to make sure we can finalise that. I will write to the Member specifically with—I did write to committee, whether the Member has got a copy of that I’m not sure, but I will write specifically to the Member.

The Labour manifesto at the Assembly elections promised to offer 30 hours a week of free childcare to working parents. This was to be delivered by a wide range of providers, including schools, childminders, play groups and day care. Will the Cabinet Secretary advise the Assembly what proportion of childcare in Wales is delivered by private nurseries compared to those attached to schools?

I don’t have those numbers, but I’m very grateful for the Member reiterating our very positively received manifesto commitment. We will be delivering that in this term of Government and, as I indicated earlier on, we are seeking to start the pilot programmes in the autumn of next year It is a very complex programme, but we will be delivering for the people of Wales, as they voted for.

Communities across Wales have benefited greatly from European funding. Through discussions led by the First Minister and the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, the Welsh Government has ensured the current allocation of regeneration funding is available up until 2020.

Thank you for that answer, Cabinet Secretary. Aberavon has been a beneficiary of the EU regeneration funds and has seen many projects develop across the communities, including the Afan valley. The decision by the British people to leave the EU obviously will put an end to the stream of funding. But that does not stop the impact of the austerity that emanates from Westminster, particularly on local authorities having to face some of the challenges, and today’s Institute for Fiscal Studies report indicates that that is going to be even greater again. In your earlier answers to the spokesperson for Plaid Cymru regarding the EU, you indicated that you are doing some analysis, but what preparations for us seeking alternative funding streams are you looking at, because you know that those funding streams are going and you know that those communities still need that help?

This is really a very difficult piece of work, and if we were to believe the Brexiteers, then we shouldn’t be worried too much about the amount of funding that we should get back into Wales, but I’ve got some doubts about that in terms of the amount of money that we may receive. This work is continuing to be led by the First Minister and the Cabinet sub-committee in terms of how and what that financial settlement may or could look like and the conditions set to that. It is, of course, always our consideration how we make best use of our investments and limited funding available subject to EU exit, but it is still premature to try to understand exactly where those investments may be for the future.

Cabinet Secretary, the question was what have you been doing via discussions with colleagues in Westminster, and I’d be grateful if you could outline what actions you’ve taken over the summer months to meet with your colleague—your opposite number in Westminster—because the Westminster Government will be on point in these negotiations, and it is vitally important that the devolved Governments and administrations help and feed in and assist the Westminster Government. I’d be grateful to know how you are taking forward that dialogue with colleagues in Westminster and what meetings you’ve had, importantly, over the summer to map out some of the basic territory you want to go down.

I haven’t had any specific meetings with any Minister regarding this, but the First Minister and the team have. The lead Ministers for European discussions is the First Minister and the finance Minister, and there have been many discussions over the summer months.

I thank Jenny for her question. The Welsh Government’s strategy for tackling child poverty remains focused on building a strong economy, increasing skills, reducing worklessness, reducing inequalities in education and health outcomes, and addressing the poverty premium. These priorities are closely aligned with the elements of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s anti-poverty strategy.

One of my constituents alerts me to the fact that she’s having to pay £8 a week for her eldest child to settle into her first term at secondary school, which is less than 3 miles away but more than 2 miles away. I understand her anxieties at this very difficult moment in the child’s life, but this is a woman on housing benefit, on income support, and £8 a week is a huge chunk out of the money that she needs to spend on the rest of her family. If we compare that with those rather reckless parents who continue to deliver their children to the school gates by car, regardless of the environmental consequences, you can just see the differences in the way in which children approach secondary school education.

Now, the Rowntree report makes five asks about child poverty, including supporting people to be good parents, supporting parents and children’s mental health, and access to high-quality affordable childcare. What more do you think the Welsh Government can do to address these endemic causes of enduring child poverty?

Well, the asks that the JRF report responds to are very closely aligned to the policy development of this Welsh Government. I agree supporting parents is a priority, and I’ve taken a decision to refocus the Families First programme to ensure it develops services that address identified gaps in service provision for parents. That will link in very strongly to the work that we are doing around adverse childhood experiences. Parenting is also integral to Flying Start. I’m more than happy, as always, to meet with the Member for Cardiff Central if the Member’s got more ideas in terms of how we can improve our support mechanisms, and will continue to do so. But we are thinking about this very carefully and I will be making a statement shortly.

Cabinet Secretary, I’m sure you know that only a highly integrated policy across Government areas is going to really tackle child poverty. For instance, the level of economic inactivity has a big impact on the number of children living in poverty. I do hope you’ll be talking to your colleagues, the economic Minister and education Secretary as well, so that we can see FE course, HE courses, for instance, being more accessible—more part-time courses, more financial support—so that people can develop their skills to either enter the labour market or get a better job within that labour market.

I’m grateful for the Member’s question. We have seen a small, 2 per cent reduction in child poverty here in Wales. I believe that is partly due to the economics of Wales, with more jobs and young people living less in workless households. It’s something that the Cabinet Secretary for the economy leads on in terms of poverty strategy, but we work very closely together to ensure that we are joined up on all aspects of the work that we do.

I thank the Member for Torfaen. The most recent research undertaken by the Institute for Fiscal Studies on the impact of welfare reform and changes to personal taxes estimates the overall annual loss in Wales to be around £600 million.

I’m sure you’re aware, Minister, of how worried Welsh Women’s Aid are about the changes to the decision to cap local housing allowance. Will you comment on that action and will you take this opportunity to reiterate your support for the excellent work that Women’s Aid refuges do throughout Wales? Given that the changes are going to be deferred for a short period, will you commit to taking every opportunity to press the UK Government to exempt women’s refuges from these proposals?

I thank the Member for her question and, of course, I pay tribute to the many support services for people suffering from domestic violence, and other causes are supported through Wales and across the UK. I’m very concerned that supported accommodation, including women’s refuges, is not exempt from the local housing allowance cap. We have made representations to the Department for Work and Pensions. I do hope that this pause in the appointment of this policy may give the Minister some pause for thought with regard to this and they’ll change their mind as regards this provision.

Of course, one of the ways we can mitigate the effects of UK welfare reform on Welsh communities is to begin developing a unique Welsh system in its place. I was very grateful to the Cabinet Secretary for his positive response, before the summer recess, to a suggestion of developing ‘Social Security Cymru’ as a concept that is backed up by maximising the opportunities we have with existing powers, but also to look at drawing down further welfare powers from the British state in the future. I wonder if the Cabinet Secretary can outline his intentions in terms of taking that idea forward.

Interestingly, I had discussions this morning about that very issue. But, the primary concern about this was about the financial settlement that we have to receive from the UK Government. Of course, to date, we haven’t had much luck with the agreement of a financial settlement that is the right and appropriate amount for Wales, whereas Scotland have had a different agreement. I’m sure, given the opportunity for that settlement to be in the right space, the Minister for finance would be happy to discuss with me other aspects of the devolution of powers that could come to this Assembly.

Following the introduction of recommendations in their ‘Dynamic Benefits: Towards welfare that works’ report, the Centre for Social Justice has pointed out that more people are employed than ever before, less people are claiming benefits and UK unemployment is at a record low of 4.9 per cent. Of course, we know Wales has a good record and story on that. However, Wales’s economic inactivity rate for working-age people not in employment is still almost 3 per cent higher than for the UK. What consideration, therefore, will you give to doing things differently and to considering what might work elsewhere—Scotland, England or beyond—in order to close that gap?

Indeed, I think giving people opportunity and ambition is something that the Government is keen to support, and that’s why our 100,000 apprenticeship programme will be rolled out from the skills department of this Government. The issues around supporting people back into work are something that I concentrate on in my department, too. There are things that we often disagree on, but I think we can share the importance of giving people hope. Jobs and skills are something that we both, hopefully, agree on.

I’ve recently been contacted by a constituent who is affected by young-onset dementia, and she was advised to give up work and put in an application for personal independence payments. My constituent was left feeling distressed and devalued as her assessment solely focused on physical capability and not her mental health needs. Do you agree, Cabinet Secretary, that this is unacceptable and that it highlights that the UK Government’s social security reforms are not fit for purpose, and will you raise these concerns in all relevant discussions with the DWP?

I thank the Member for her question. I understand that, to be eligible for PIP payments, a person must have a long-term health condition or disability, which include mental health conditions and, particularly, progressive conditions such as dementia. I will ask my officials to seek further clarity from the Department for Work and Pensions on how they undertake their assessments for PIP for people with mental health conditions, and perhaps the Member may wish to write to me specifically about this case, and I will take that up for her.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary.

And the next item on our agenda is the motion to amend the remit of the External Affairs and Additional Legislation Committee, and I call a member of the Business Committee to move the motion. Paul Davies.

Formally move.

Thank you. The proposal is to agree the motion. Does any Member object? I see that there are no objections, therefore the motion is agreed in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

The next item is the motion to elect members to committees, and I call again on a member of the Business Committee to move the motion. Paul Davies.

Formally move.

The proposal is to agree the motion. Does any Member object? If there are no objections, the motion is agreed in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

The next item on our agenda is the Plaid Cymru debate, and I call on Adam Price to move the motion.   

Diolch, Lywydd. This debate, in the name of Plaid Cymru, focuses on probably, I think, one of the key challenges—the central challenge—for this Assembly, which is meeting the demands of the new economic topography, if you like, of the post-Brexit landscape.

The first pre-requisite for good policy is a common understanding: we’re all on the same page. I think that that is part of the challenge that we face in developing a new strategy, and understanding the scale of the challenge. The Welsh economy has probably faced, in the post second world war period, three great periods of economic change: in the immediate aftermath of the war, then the period from the 1960s, the late 1960s, the 1970s and 1980s of industrial restructuring, primarily through the decline of coal and steel, and then in the period post 1996, particularly with the period of the high pound and, actually, the accession of eastern European countries also posed particular challenges for us. Now, we’re on the cusp of an even bigger challenge, possibly. Globally, when we look at the environment’s secular stagnation, as it’s called, which is this kind of decline in the international economic growth rates, fiscal and monetary policy—the two big bazookas, as they’re sometimes called, of economic policy—seemingly exhausted, and rising global competition, in part driven by slowdown in domestic markets, even in China, it’s not an auspicious environment for us to be facing domestic challenges as well, but it is where we are.

If we think of those three periods in the post-war period, what you notice is an attempt to create a set of policies, a new economic policy paradigm that, to some extent, was successful: regional policy within the UK shifting economic activity around the UK in the aftermath of world war two; and, inward investment in the 1980s, where Wales did relatively well and sometimes, of course, achieving proportions of inward investment as high as 25 per cent of the entire UK. It’s the third period since 1996 when we have seen a precipitous decline in our relative gross value added share, or proportion. Of course, that period has coincided with the period of devolution. Devolution was meant to be the answer to Wales’s economic problems. The devolution dividend that we often refer to, at least on economic policy, has not delivered. I think that the Member for Llanelli was right on the money when he reminded us of that devolution dividend argument. He said, over the summer, that despite continued efforts, on that test, it has so far failed to fulfil its potential. So, it’s a challenge to all of us elected to this place that we now meet that test and that we come up with a new economic strategy that can meet the test of our times.

Now, that’s even more important of course in the context of Brexit, isn’t it? The need for an answer has accelerated even further. I must admit—and I’m trying to be fair and not hypercritical here—I’m not convinced by the response that we’ve heard so far from the Welsh Government. Yes, it is confusing. There are so many options on the table that you need a compass: Norway, Switzerland, Canada; Lichtenstein is a new one—of course, Lichtenstein is in the European Economic Area but did have a nine-year moratorium on free movement; reverse Greenland; customs union; World Trade Organization rules; and the continental partnership proposal, which has some merits and was suggested by the Bruegel think tank over the summer.

In a fast-moving scene, you need to show some flexibility and agility of mind, I think we would all accept that, and there’s certainly an opportunity as well for us in Wales—rather than simply going for a prêt-à-porter solution, coming up with a bespoke solution: a new idea for new times. But, that shouldn’t be a recipe for confusion. I think that that’s what we’ve had so far from the Welsh Government on the model that is in the best interests of Wales—the type of Brexit. Because, let’s be clear, the people of Wales have voted for Brexit, as have the people of the UK, but the door through which we exit is what we’re debating now, and there are different-coloured doors available to us; there are different thresholds; and there are different end destinations. It’s important that this National Assembly expresses what is in the national interest of Wales.

Unfortunately, I have to say, we heard from the First Minister three different policies in two days, sometimes in the course of the same session. In the European and External Affairs Committee, when challenged by my colleague Steffan Lewis, he said he did not support membership of the single market, but the rather more nebulous term, ‘access’. Well, who is against access, you know? When challenged on this question again by the leader of the opposition, he said he was, and had always been, in favour of membership of the single market—in that slightly patronising tone—and asked, ‘Where has he been? Has he not been reading the newspapers?’ [Laughter.] He then went on to say—[Interruption.] He then went on to say—[Interruption.] He then went on to say that he favoured—[Interruption.] He then went on to say that he favoured a free-trade agreement, or EFTA, but outside the EEA, because that would avoid a commitment to free movement—despite saying on Monday that he actually saw the EEA or the EFTA models as by far the most workable, and saying in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote that, actually, free movement was a red line as far as he was concerned. So, I’m completely confused. I invite a Minister, any Minister, to patronise me by all means. Maybe I would be a little bit wiser if you would intervene, if not now, and maybe we could have some clarity on what is the current position in terms of Brexit as far as the Welsh Government is concerned.

Moving on to the economic strategy, I have to say that confusion reigns here as well. We do still have a current economic strategy: ‘Economic Renewal: a new direction’. It was published in 2010. It still is, officially, the economic strategy of the Welsh Government. At the time—the clue was in the title, ‘a new direction’—it was meant to represent a step change in thinking, away from the old grant culture and towards, instead, a more strategic approach to creating the conditions for economic success, rather than the old school of, basically, economic success coming through the stroke of a ministerial pen and money being doled out to individual companies. It was also meant to be more strategic in focusing on some key sectors—a limited number of key sectors where we believed Wales had a particular competitive advantage: ‘smart specialisation’, as it is sometimes called in the jargon.

What happened, of course, is that there was a change of administration and the thinking behind the strategy somehow got lost. So, the first thing that has happened is that three additional sectors were added, some of them rather large, like construction. In fact, somebody worked out that probably 90 per cent of businesses in Wales are actually part of the target sectors. Well, that’s not targeting, is it? That’s not prioritisation. We’ve seen the slow re-emergence of the grant culture, of the principal policy lever of the Government basically being that stroke of the ministerial pen, and micro-managing the economy. Picking winners, the evidence is quite clear, is fraught with difficulty. What Government should be doing is concentrating on those areas where we have a competitive advantage and investing in skills and infrastructure. Yes, in particular developments with particular companies and sectors, but doing it using a cluster approach rather than just doling out money in the old-fashioned way.

Yes, we’ve had city regions as some kind of half-hearted attempt to have a spatial strategy after the previous administration ripped up the spatial plan. But where does that leave the Valleys? Where does that leave rural west Wales? Where is the strategy there? Again, there is a vacuum of ideas, unfortunately, at the heart of the Government’s economic strategy currently. We’ve suggested actually creating, to fill that vacuum, targeted and focused development agencies in order to get the kind of strategic leadership that we have lacked so far from the Government. The obsession that underlies the Government’s policy is jobs. Job target numbers—which actually, often, are specious, as we have found out—actually aren’t, at a national level, the key problem now with the Welsh economy. I mean, the Government of course points out that the Welsh unemployment is lower now than the UK unemployment rate. So, it's not that we're doing worse on unemployment that explains our poorer economic performance; actually, it's at a much deeper level. It's about competitiveness, it's about productivity. It's not the number of jobs, it's not the headline count. It's the quality of jobs, the types of business sectors, the number of start-ups and the entrepreneurial culture that we need to create in order to create the businesses of the future. That's where we should be investing, rather than in this old-style, headcount, press-release-driven approach to handing out free money to businesses, which, as, sadly, we've seen, often don't deliver on the jobs that were promised. We've seen a number of examples of that recently: Universal Engineering, Kukd, Kancoat, et cetera.

We realise that failure is part and parcel of the economy, but when we're talking about public money, we need to make sure that we are investing it where it will have the greatest effect, particularly when we saw in the competitiveness figures out today—it's sobering reading, isn't it? Out of 379 local authority areas, Wales has five in the lowest 10, in the bottom 10: Carmarthenshire, Caerphilly, Ceredigion, Merthyr Tydfil, Blaenau Gwent, right at the bottom. And, again, the cupboard is bare at the moment in terms of economic policies from this Government that are targeted at those areas. The Circuit of Wales, of course, is an inspiring idea that I would urge the Government to stop prevaricating on. That's a project that has been seven years in the making and promises to be transformational in that area. That's the kind of thinking actually coming from the private sector, where the public sector, unfortunately, by changing the goalposts constantly, is holding us back.

We’ve presented our own ideas in our programme for opposition. I think it's a positive move, and maybe it says something, actually, when we’ve yet to see the programme for government. We’ve had the programme for opposition. There are more ideas coming from the opposition benches currently than are coming from the people that have their hands on the levers of power. That has to change if we’re going to actually change the economic state of Wales. We are very much supportive of the idea of creating a national development agency. We created a template that the world copied through the Welsh Development Agency—a fantastic brand, but a model in terms of how you develop and restructure an economy. Of course, we want to do it for the twenty-first century. We're not about actually staying with the policies of the past. That's the problem, I think, with the Government going back to this grant aid obsession. We want a WDA for the twenty-first century. The Government, through the innovation advisory council, is consulting with business—and I understand there's a very positive response—on the idea of creating a national innovation agency. Is that a quango? We often get the criticism, ‘Oh, you just want to create quangos’. Well, it's an arm’s-length body that has expertise, that actually speaks the same language of business, has a particular focus, and will get on with the job.

And the same is true of our proposal to drive up infrastructure investment in Wales. We saw the news from the Scottish Government that they are bringing forward plans to drive up infrastructure investment by £4 billion next year. That's the kind of leadership that we need, and the Government needs tools to be able to do that, people who have the expertise in terms of funding infrastructure investment, in terms of managing large-scale projects. That will never be within the Welsh civil service, and that's why creating a national infrastructure commission is so important.

And finally, I think the Government needs a massive injection of creativity, some big ideas that can inspire Wales. We saw over the summer the cancellation of the Wales bid for the Commonwealth Games, but what have we put in there to replace it that will actually inspire our country and create the foundations for a different economy? About the same time as the economy Secretary was announcing that, Manchester announced an ambitious bid to bring the World’s Fair, the Expo, the Olympics for business, if you like, and industry back to these islands for the first time since the Great Exhibition of 1851. That is the biggest event in the world—20 million visitors they’re expecting there, double the size of the Olympics. Think what that could do to the Manchester economy in terms of promoting an image of its city and its region, but also in terms of investing in its business. That’s the kind of thinking that we need from this Welsh Government. They did the Commonwealth Games; now they’re going for the Expo. What are our proposals from the Welsh Government for Wales?

Thank you very much. I’ve selected the two amendments to the motion. I call on Nick Ramsay to move amendment 1, tabled in the name of Paul Davies. Nick.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. It was good listening to those ideas. I’m not sure I’ve got much time left to give any of my own ideas as well; it was quite a long opening. But I’m pleased to move the amendment in the name of Paul Davies on the order paper. Can I say in opening that it’s always good to hear the spatial plan, the Wales spatial plan, reinvented and referred to? I would beg to differ, Adam Price; I don’t think it was ripped up. I think it left in Andrew Davies’s briefcase some years ago and we haven’t heard it mentioned since. But it is a good example of the way that, at any point in time, you have one economic policy and that can be the economic policy of the Welsh Government for a given amount of time, but then it is dropped and we move on to something else, and then something else further down the line. Whilst that works over a period of 50, 60 or 70 years—the point you made towards the start of your speech—I’m not sure that that does work over the shorter time that we’ve had in devolution. I think that the Welsh Government does need to look at that, and to look at a more sustainable policy over the medium term that will give the stability that the economy needs.

Whilst there’s no doubt that we do need to protect Wales from the immediate fallout of the Brexit vote in terms of replacing the EU funding that will undoubtedly be lost, at least as far as it comes from Brussels, the Welsh Conservatives believe that it is imperative that we work with the UK Government, and indeed other devolved Governments, ahead of the triggering of article 50 and the subsequent negotiations. This, we feel, should be on the face of the motion, which is the reason for our amendment.

We’ve long argued that we need to close the prosperity gap between Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom, as indeed Plaid Cymru seem to agree with. Of course, European structural funds have for a long time been seen as key to doing this, and they have had a part to play, but let’s not forget, back at the outset of devolution when this was first founded, back in those days, I think it was Rhodri Morgan who said that Wales would only need one phase of European structural funds and that would deal with the issue. So, it’s not just a case of receiving structural funds or funding from wherever it might come. It’s a question of that being best spent, and it’s a question of those funds being invested in a way that makes the Welsh economy and the regional parts of the Welsh economy such as west Wales and the Valleys more sustainable, and puts it on a more sustainable footing in a way that those areas can generate their own wealth so that they are not so dependent on the grant culture that Adam Price alluded to in future.

The motion mentions the WDA and Plaid Cymru want to create or recreate a Welsh Development Agency that is fit for the twenty-first century. That’s a key point. It cannot simply be a matter of recreating the old 1970s WDA model, the 1980s WDA model. We cannot and should not seek to turn back the clock, no matter how attractive that might sometimes appear in some quarters. It simply won’t work. That said, the loss of the WDA brand was in retrospect a mistake. No, the WDA was not perfect, but it was recognised across the world as the image of Wales, and it did do a great deal to attract inward investment here that would otherwise not have come. However, we do acknowledge that some of those investors were short term. That they clearly were. They came, they took the grants, and moved on, and that was not sustainable. Any new model of attracting investment must focus on aftercare and not just as an afterthought, but as a key part of the original package. I know that there is a degree of aftercare at the moment provided by the Welsh Government. I’m sure that the Minister would make that point. But Welsh Conservatives believe that this should be overhauled and bolstered with speed of response to businesses’ concerns and clear lines of communication placed at the heart of the new arrangements. We came up with a model called Destination Cymru. There are other models out there. I know that Plaid Cymru have come forward with their own proposals as well. But, yes, absolutely, our aim as a country must be to grow Welsh business and boost our exports.

Turning to the national infrastructure commission, while there can be no doubt that the importance of developing infrastructure has been too often overlooked since the advent of evolution, I’m pleased it’s now in the title of the Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure, and that’s a welcome development. I think I would say we need to be sure that the infrastructure commission, if we have one, does actually deliver what we want, and that we get the right model from the start. But I do agree that the idea of bringing transport, energy and green infrastructure together at the outset is a good one. Too often we’ve seen the usual silos of Government where departments work in isolation and interaction doesn’t happen.

Can I say, finally, point 3 is arguably, I think, one of the most important points of the debate—procurement? Yes, we need to increase levels of procurement. No-one argues against that. We’ve had numerous debates in here over the years and I’ve argued for a much more robust public sector procurement strategy. How will that strategy look? Well, that’s to be decided. But we need to make sure that the Welsh Government doesn’t just talk about a national procurement strategy, but that we have one that really works and that is weighted towards home-grown, local Welsh businesses and not just to the larger businesses that it has been pitched to too often in the past.

Thanks very much. I call on the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government to formally move amendment 2, tabled in the name of Jane Hutt.

I move formally.

Thank you. Llyr Gruffydd.

There’s no doubt, of course, that the next few years are going to be challenging. But I think the real challenge is to ensure that we emerge stronger at the other end than we are at present in terms of our economy here in Wales. As the shadow Minister with responsibility for education and skills and so on, it is clear that we must make full use of the potential we have in Wales to build a stronger economy on those firm foundations in terms of creativity, innovation, enterprise and so on, as Adam mentioned, and to use this opportunity that we have now to create an improved regime.

In a recent discussion on apprenticeships here in Wales, the point was made, of course, that employers are obviously crucial to any successful apprenticeship scheme, and we must ensure that employers are an integral part and ready partners to step forward to play their part in this. But the one thing employers don’t like, of course, is inconsistency, is programmes that appear then disappear, and then things change and after a year or two the goalposts are moved. They need consistency and they need continuity.

The programmes that we have in Wales, of course, are very reliant on European funding in terms of apprenticeships and workplace training. The tendency is that they are two or three year schemes, because of the fact that those conditions come from Europe. Is there an opportunity here now, for example, to create programmes that are longer term and to think differently, rather than us having to change so often, and that we create that more consistent landscape that is more in keeping with the involvement of the business sector, which will mean that we manage to develop more of those skills and more of the expertise that we need?

But one doesn’t get the feeling from Welsh Government that that strategy is in place and that it is robust and muscular—certainly in these first few months after the referendum. I’ve referred in the past to the fact that the Minister for skills stated—fairly enough, if truth be told—that she was going to continue with many of the programmes that are reliant on European funding, because the pledges have been made that the funding will be provided from elsewhere, although, of course, some of those individuals didn’t perhaps have the right to make those pledges. But the attitude is quite positive in that regard: we will continue, because, if we don’t, what will we do? We’ll be in stasis. But, on exactly the same day, another Minister, responsible for agriculture, announced that she was postponing some of these programmes because of the uncertainty. Well, there you have two departments taking entirely different views on the same problem there. Certainly that, to me, highlighted the fact that there was no specific strategy and no meaningful approach by the Welsh Government to the situation that we find ourselves in.

Of course, international students make a very important contribution to our HE institutions in Wales. We know that the expenditure of international students supported over 7,000 or almost 7,500 jobs in Wales in 2015, and that the impact isn’t only in those areas where there are universities but in other areas of Wales as well. One job is created for every three students from outwith the EU, and one job is created for every five students coming to Wales from within the EU. There’s £203 million in payments from international students to Welsh universities. The personal expenditure of international students is over £300 million. There is a risk, of course, in light of the referendum, that we will lose that important relationship we have, and that image we have of being a nation that opens our arms to international students to bring their skills and expertise to us.

And of course it’s not only the direct economic consequences of that, but it would also cost. Think of all these people then going back having made trade and international connections for Wales. It would cost you a fortune to try and create that in some alternative way. And the comments of Theresa May and Amber Rudd on the possibility of restricting the number of student visas in order to meet pledges on immigration, to me, are of huge concern, and certainly create further uncertainty, which will be damaging to that sector.

The importance of research and development is, of course, another prominent issue. It is central to any real economic strategy, and the return on investment there can be very substantial indeed. And we have seen those figures. In 2014, it was estimated that totals of £716 million had been spent on research and development in Wales, and that represents 2.4 per cent of the total UK research spend. There’s been an old argument on the need to increase that and ensure that we get our fair share. Well, there’s an opportunity here, with that shifting landscape, for us to actually make up for the underinvestment that has happened in the past.

Interestingly, too, the private sector contributes some 55 per cent to that total, higher education some 40 per cent, and the Government 5 per cent. So, there may be scope to increase that. But, certainly, the economic topography is changing, and we must ensure that it works to our benefit, despite any challenges.

Thank you very much. Simon Thomas.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. I think, in bringing forward this debate, and, earlier this week, in publishing our programme for opposition, Plaid Cymru was responding to a real need that we have now in Wales. I think it’s fair to say that those in power, and those responsible for calling the referendum on the future membership of the European Union, did not prepare for this scenario in one shape or form whatsoever. They certainly didn’t prepare for what would be the implications of this scenario for devolved administration, and a devolved Government here in Wales. I think we’ve seen a lot of that over the last few months, and it has been disappointing that the Welsh Government has not responded in a coherent way—as has been pointed out already by Llyr Gruffydd, and Adam Price—and I hope that that will improve now we have the Cabinet Secretary responsible for the sub-committee that is responding to this challenge.

But Plaid Cymru is certainly ready for it. We didn’t want this scenario, but, as the party that represents Wales, and wants to seek to represent all parts of Wales, we want to make sure that we take the best opportunity from this position. And if the kaleidoscope has been shaken up—and I didn’t really want to quote Tony Blair, but there we are—if it has been shaken up, then we need to make sure that the pieces reset in a way that makes sense for our economy, our society, and our environment. And I think Adam Price has set out already how clearly we are prepared to do that. We will, obviously, work with the Welsh Government. We already have arrangements in place with the Welsh Government to try and deliver on some of these ideas, but we also want to seek to lead the Welsh nation in how we respond to the situation we’re in.

There are two things that I particularly want to mention here this afternoon. One is around our future as an energy nation, and the second is how we can respond from the point of view of food production, environmental services, and our farming communities. There is no doubt that we’ve gone off the pace in what we’ve done as a nation in the last 10 years as regards energy and renewable energy. We sit in Cardiff Bay, in a capital city created by carbon energy—created by coal, mainly—and yet we haven’t had the devolution dividend that Adam mentioned in terms of renewable energy either. At one stage, we were ahead of the game, but only this week, the Committee on Climate Change said that Scotland is now leading the way for the UK as regards dealing with climate change, and is ahead of the game with renewable energy.

We have 1,200 miles of glorious coastline—which some of us will be seeing next week in New Quay, with the committee—deep sea ports, which are extremely important for energy development and capture, and Welsh waters that could be worth, just for marine energy alone, £3.7 billion to the UK economy by 2020. Cardiff Business School has estimated that we could have 1 GW of capacity developed in the next two decades. And central to this, of course, is the potential of a tidal lagoon in Swansea bay, and, from that, other tidal lagoons being developed in the Severn estuary.

I understand the Government is meeting with Charles Hendry, who’s leading the review of tidal lagoons on behalf of—he hasn’t been sacked by Thereasa May yet; everyone else appointed by Cameron has been sacked by Theresa May, but he hasn’t been sacked yet. So, if he’s still there next week, and the Government does meet with him, I hope they really impress that this review has to take on board how important this infrastructure project is for Wales, in terms of our building skills capacity, in terms of what we are ready to do with Tata Steel, and the deep port at Port Talbot as well, and, indeed, how we can develop our renewable energy through a bay lagoon. I’ll certainly give way to Huw Irranca.

Thank you, Simon for giving way. Your point is very well made. In fact, there is a parallel with the investment that went into the areas around Hull and Grimsby. Prior to 2010, £60 million was put into port expansion there in order to enable the expansion of offshore wind, and it is happening, and Siemens are located there; they have manufacturing capability as well as everything else. This could be our equivalent in Wales, and we need to, without holding up the begging bowl, actually say to them, ‘This is good for the UK as well, but it’s particularly good for Wales.’

You’re absolutely right. I agree, and of course, we have the deep ports, and the Haven in Pembrokeshire as well, where construction can be taken immediately out to sea without the UK investment that was needed in the north-east. That was seen as regional development, but it also opened up the north sea for offshore wind, and that’s been very successful. I think that’s a very good example, and any pressure that can be brought now in the next couple of crucial weeks to ensure that the tidal lagoon is seen as a huge potential for Wales—. We can be, again, a world leader in energy, renewable energy, and I would like to see this opportunity—whether we want it or not, this is our opportunity to use it to recast our nation in that way.

The second aspect is around agriculture and the environment, and whatever we’ve thought in the past of European agriculture rules, there’s been a clear tendency over the last 10 years to move away from supporting merely paying for food production into a situation where we support the whole environment and food production and processing as part of that. We have this opportunity, rather than, as Llyr Gruffydd mentioned, going through every five or six years, recasting our programmes, to have a very much more long-term view of how we can use these resources now to support our rural communities, but also to achieve more effective, more sustainable and, indeed, more environmentally productive food production. Certainly, Plaid Cymru is consulting our farming communities at the moment, and I hope that anyone who is interested in contributing those ideas will join with us in doing that.

The key to how we move forward is the unresolved question of whether we have some kind of access to the single market through some kind of free trade arrangement, which could include tariffs, or membership of the single market. Adam Price mentioned that we’ve had at least three different policies. I asked the environment Secretary in committee this morning which policy the Cabinet actually had, and I think it’s fair to say that the Cabinet has no policy. The Cabinet has no policy at all regarding whether it’s membership, or access or whatever. Now, we can see that these are difficult times, and uncertain times, but I think we need to see a vision, and I think we need to see the Welsh Government setting out very clearly where it wants Wales to remain. Plaid Cymru is clear and I’m quite clear; I want, long-term, Wales to be a member of the European Union, because I want Wales as an independent country willingly participating in a union of other countries working together for the environment, and for society and for the economy. If that’s not to happen now—and I accept the result of the referendum, of course—but if it’s not to happen now, then what are the steps we’re taking to protect Wales in the meantime, and secure access, which is vital, to that single market for our farmers?

We’ve talked a lot about economic strategy this afternoon, and I wish the Cabinet Secretary well in developing a new economic strategy for the Welsh Government. I think we are in uniquely challenging times, and I think it’s a timely moment to look at the economic strategy generally. So, I wish him well in that, and I commend him, actually, for seeking input from the people of Wales on their economic priorities for the future. I know that there is a school of thought that prefers economic strategy with declamatory statements of certainty, but I think we are not in that territory in the world at the moment. And I know, from conversations across the house, that many of us will be looking to have consultations in our constituencies about those priorities to feed into that strategy, and I think that is a positive thing for us all.

On the question of inward investment, I’ll echo what has been said many times by the Cabinet Secretary and the First Minister about selling Wales to the world. Obviously, it’s essential for us at this time to be communicating that we’re an open, trading, outward-looking economy, and that is absolutely fundamental to the success of the economy in future. Clearly, how that pans out will depend on the relationship we ultimately have with the European single market. But I just want to say that, in addition to that focus on inward Investment, I think we also need to look at the support we give to our foundational economies in Wales—those sectors where demand is growing, which are located in our communities, which are less internationally mobile, maybe, and which offer and can continue to offer employment to many, many thousands of people in our communities, if you’ll forgive my obsession with jobs for the moment. Those sectors are care, housing, energy and food. I think we also need to make sure that our policy addresses the needs of those sectors. That will require concrete choices in policy terms in the months ahead. For example, how do we fund some of those 100,000 apprenticeships that we’re looking at? For what sectors are we going to target that support? So, there are genuine policy questions around that.

I’d also endorse the work that’s underway in relation to the national infrastructure commission. It seems to me that one of the important things in the post-Brexit world that we’re heading towards is that we draw inspiration and, indeed, draw comparison with countries not just in Europe, but beyond Europe as well. So, I would hope that the Cabinet Secretary would consider pointing to that commission individuals with substantial experience of infrastructure, not just in the UK and not just in Europe, even, but beyond that as well.

I just want to say one final thing, which is about the support—. Many people who supported Brexit will have done so with the opportunity in mind to cut back on some of the valuable workplace rights that we have by virtue of our membership of the European Union. The European Union is a source of many rights that workers in Wales regard as absolutely fundamental. They’re a platform for modern work practice, for supporting family life, for clamping down on discrimination and I hope that we don’t see across the UK a pressure to move away from a settlement that protects the Welsh workforce and I hope and expect the Welsh Government will advocate a post-Brexit economy, if you like, which has a skilled, productive workforce at its heart.

It’s a pleasure to take part in this extremely important debate, and I pay tribute first of all to those who have already spoken. Adam Price has opened the debate very well, telling us about the landscape now following that important vote that we had recently and that has changed everything, namely Brexit.

There is a major challenge in front of us. Many of us have mentioned that challenge, but fundamentally we want to respond with confidence and Wales has to go for it, indeed, and has to make every effort to make the best of where we find ourselves at present, and not just to continue mourning a result that we didn’t necessarily want.

But we have to be adventurous and ambitious, and on these benches we’ve told you about the measures that we would like to be put in place. I would like to thank Nick Ramsay for his contribution and to Jeremy as well, talking about the infrastructure commission. And of course, we need to have an infrastructure commission that has real teeth to get to grips with the challenge in front of us. We need a commission that can do things; not a kind of consultation committee but a body that can borrow, that can plan and that can make arrangements and can go for it to pursue this infrastructure that we all want to see in terms of transport and green issues, and so on, as is noted in our motion.

I wanted to talk briefly about the part of our motion that talks about increasing procurement levels for businesses based in Wales, and of course it’s fair to note, as others already have—Nick Ramsay, mainly—that we’ve had several discussions over the years about public procurement in this place. We all agree that it’s an excellent idea for us to be able to increase levels of public procurement for companies here in Wales. Of course, it makes common sense, and yet, we’re less than successful in implementing and achieving that aim, because indeed in the potentially difficult days ahead of us we do need to get to grips with every tool that we have. And we do have to increase the levels of public procurement for businesses based in Wales. When you look at the Welsh economy at present, 25 per cent of our wealth comes from the private sector. Now, 75 per cent of Welsh wealth comes from the public sector, and we need to get to grips with that.

And, of course, using the public sector is a very easy way to alleviate that. At present, in the public sector—in our local government, for example, where they want to provide food for schools and hospitals and so on, the level of procurement there is over 50 per cent for the private sector. So, the public sector is doing its bit in helping the private sector, but we need to do more. Some 98,000 posts at present in Wales stem from the fact that over 50 per cent of the procurement contracts at present are based in Wales-based companies. But we need to increase that level from 55 per cent to 75 per cent, and we should be able to do that by thinking adventurously and smartly about how we set our contracts—with smaller companies, as Nick Ramsay said, and not always going for the major companies, and pursuing that ideal that promoting the economy locally here in Wales is important, that looking after social standards here in Wales is important, and, of course, environmentally, it makes common sense to keep our businesses here in Wales.

There are all sorts of intelligent and reasonable reasons for increasing the level of procurement here in Wales, and we have an opportunity now to use rules that perhaps haven’t been used often in the past to get to grips with this, because there is a significant challenge ahead of us. Because, ultimately, value for money means, in my view, more than going for the lowest price every time. Thank you.

Well, Dai Lloyd has told us not to mourn the situation, but I have to say that I am still in mourning. I am still in mourning for those areas of rural Wales and our agricultural industry that now don’t know what their future holds.

Rwy’n dal i alaru dros y bobl hynny yn y cymunedau tlotaf a fyddai wedi tybio bod yr arian hwnnw yn dod iddynt, ond sydd bellach heb unrhyw syniad a fydd yn dod. Ac rwy’n galaru yn fwy na dim dros y wlad rwy’n ei charu lle rwyf wedi gweld rhaniadau’n ymddangos a lle gwelsom wyneb hyll anoddefgarwch yn ein cymunedau. Gwnaed addewidion a thorwyd addewidion. Credaf fod yn rhaid i ni fod yn ofalus iawn hefyd ac mae angen i ni wrando. Mae angen i ni wrando ar bobl Cymru a anfonodd neges atom. Maent wedi anfon neges atom, a rhan o’r neges honno oedd eu bod am adfer rheolaeth.

Rydym bellach yn byw mewn gwlad lle mae’r Bitcoin yn fwy sefydlog na sterling. Rydym yn byw mewn gwlad lle gallem weld 40c yr awr yn cael ei dorri oddi ar y cyflog byw oherwydd effaith gadael yr UE. Rydym wedi gweld tai a chyfranddaliadau bancio yn cael eu torri, ac rydym wedi mynd o fod yn bumed economi fwyaf y byd i’r chweched economi fwyaf, ac wedi colli ein statws AAA. Ond poenau cychwynnol gadael yr UE yn unig yw’r rhain; mae yna faterion nad ydym wedi dechrau rhoi sylw iddynt. Faint o ddeddfwyr â sgiliau ychwanegol fydd eu hangen arnom, hyd yn oed yng Nghymru, er mwyn datglymu’r holl offerynnau statudol sydd wedi eu hymgorffori yng nghymhlethdod ein deddfwrfa ein hunain? Pa mor hawdd fydd hi i bobl o Iwerddon lanio ar ein glannau yn Abergwaun, Caergybi a Doc Penfro? Pa mor hawdd fydd hi iddynt?

Rwy’n meddwl bod Prif Weinidog Cymru yn gwneud y peth cwbl gywir: ei gwneud yn glir mai’r hyn rydym ei eisiau yw mynediad di-dariff i’r farchnad sengl, heb unrhyw rwystrau technegol eraill ychwaith. Rwy’n credu ei bod yn bwysig ac yn arwydd da iawn ei fod wedi mynd i’r Unol Daleithiau i ddangos o ddifrif ein bod yn dal i fod yn genedl sy’n edrych tuag allan. Ond mae’n fy nharo mai’r ffordd fwyaf pwerus o werthu ein gwlad mewn gwirionedd yw gofyn i’r bobl sydd eisoes yn gwneud busnes yma i weithredu fel llysgenhadon ar ein rhan, gan mai hyn a hyn yn unig y gall gweision sifil ei wneud yn fy mhrofiad i, ac os caf ddweud, hyn a hyn yn unig y gall gwleidyddion ei wneud. Yr arbenigwyr go iawn yw’r bobl sy’n gwneud busnes yma, ac nid oes rheswm pam na allwn ofyn iddynt fod yn llysgenhadon ar ein rhan. Mae’n digwydd yn y Swyddfa Dramor a Chymanwlad, nid oes rheswm pam na allwn ofyn i bobl wneud hynny yma.

Y peth arall sy’n rhaid i ni ei wneud yn glir yw na allwn dderbyn gwlad lle byddem yn waeth ein byd fel rhan o’r Deyrnas Unedig o gymharu â bod wedi aros yn yr Undeb Ewropeaidd. Pa fath o neges y mae hynny’n ei roi i ni, y bobl sydd am aros yn rhan o’r Deyrnas Unedig? Nid yw’n ymwneud yn unig â’r cronfeydd strwythurol, mae’n ymwneud ag amaethyddiaeth a thaliadau gwledig, mae’n ymwneud ag arian i’n prifysgolion, mae’n ymwneud â gorfodi rheolau ar safonau amgylcheddol a safonau ar gyfer defnyddwyr. Rydym wedi clywed heddiw fod y Sefydliad Astudiaethau Cyllid wedi amcangyfrif y gallai Cymru golli dros £500 miliwn o arian o ganlyniad i hyn. Rhaid i ni beidio â derbyn hynny. Mae’n rhaid i ni ymladd bob cam o’r ffordd. Ac rydym yn gwybod hyd yn oed pe na baem wedi bod yn gymwys ar gyfer y cam nesaf o gronfeydd strwythurol Ewrop, yna byddai rhyw fath o fecanwaith tapro ar waith. Rydym eisiau’r arian hwnnw hefyd. Rydym eisiau’r arian hwnnw hefyd ac mae angen iddynt glywed hynny’n uchel ac yn glir yn y Trysorlys.

Ond yn anffodus, rwy’n credu’n wirioneddol y gallai’r bleidlais hon fod yn argyfwng i Gymru. Nid wyf yn gwybod os yw’n hynny eto. Ni fyddwn yn gwybod hyd nes y byddwn yn gwybod canlyniad y trafodaethau. Ond rwy’n meddwl bod angen i ni wrando ar yr hyn roedd pobl Cymru yn dweud wrthym, ac rwy’n meddwl eu bod yn rhoi neges i ni am effaith globaleiddio ar eu bywydau. Rwy’n credu eu bod yn dweud wrthym eu bod am gael rhywfaint yn fwy o reolaeth dros eu bywydau, ac rwy’n credu bod angen i ni gynllunio sut rydym yn grymuso’r bobl sydd eisiau adfer rheolaeth, a chynnig cyfleoedd go iawn iddynt gymryd rheolaeth yn eu cymunedau dros eu bywydau eu hunain. Yng Nghymru, fel mewn mannau eraill, byddwn yn gweld cynnydd enfawr yn nifer y bobl sy’n hunangyflogedig. Beth sydd ei angen arnynt? Sut y gallwn eu cefnogi yn y cymunedau hynny? Oes, mae angen i ni feddwl am strategaeth economaidd a strategaeth ddiwydiannol. Gadewch i ni edrych ar lefydd fel Ffrainc. Sut y mae eu cynhyrchiant gymaint yn well nag yn y DU? Mae yna fodelau gwych i ni eu dilyn yn rhai o’r gwledydd hynny. Ac mae’n rhaid i mi ddweud wrthych, yn ystod fy amser mewn diwydiant roedd yn amlwg iawn i mi, rydych chi’n iawn, nad yw pobl yn cael eu hysgogi i fuddsoddi yng Nghymru oherwydd grantiau. Nid dyna beth sy’n eu denu yma. Yr hyn y mae pobl ei eisiau yw amgylchedd sefydlog, rheoliadol ac economaidd. Rwy’n ofni mai dyna un peth nad oes gennym mohono ar hyn o bryd. Dyna ran o’r broblem rydym yn ei hwynebu. Felly, mae’n rhaid i’r strategaeth economaidd hon ystyried y ffaith fod hynny’n anhawster i ni ar hyn o bryd.

Rhaid i ni feddwl hefyd am swyddi’r dyfodol. O wythnos i wythnos, o fis i fis, o flwyddyn i flwyddyn, bydd technoleg yn cael gwared ar swyddi ac yn gwneud swyddi’n ddiangen yn y gwledydd hyn. Gadewch i ni geisio edrych ymlaen i weld sut swyddi fydd y rhain. Mae’n rhaid i mi orffen drwy ddweud bod rhan ohonof yn dal yn flin a rhan ohonof yn dal yn drist ac yn galaru am ddyfodol pan na fydd fy mhlant yn rhan o’r Undeb Ewropeaidd.

Thank you very much. I call on the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, Mark Drakeford.

Diolch yn fawr, Ddirprwy Lywydd. Can I begin by thanking all those who’ve taken part in what has been, I think, a thought-provoking and constructive discussion, which will be helpful to us all as we struggle together to think our way through the circumstances in which we find ourselves in Wales in the post-Brexit era? I’ll begin by thanking Adam Price for his contribution. I enjoyed the start of it especially. I think his reference to policy paradigms, and the way in which we have faced previous challenges by thinking again the strategies and the practical actions we need to take in order to meet those challenges, were helpful to us even in the tough times we face and even with the blow to confidence that setting out in a different direction can bring. I think he demonstrated that we have faced those challenges in the past and by applying ourselves to the circumstances of today we are capable of meeting them in the future. His general point, and the general point that lies behind the motion, is incontrovertible isn’t it? We have to think again and we have to fashion our future anew in the circumstances created by the vote on 23 June.

Those circumstances, as Nick Ramsay said, are highly uncertain and in order to meet that uncertainty we have to shape Wales’s future alongside others. I spent part of my morning in a discussion with the new Scottish Minister responsible for negotiating from the Scottish perspective in the Brexit discussions. We shared ideas about how we can shape inter-governmental machinery and how we can create an agenda in which, where we have common and overlapping interests, we work together to pursue those ambitions. That’s why the Government side will vote for the amendment moved by Nick Ramsey this afternoon. We need a distinctive future for Wales but not a separate future; a future in which we can work together to create some common benefit for the people who live in Wales. And when we do that, Dirprwy Lywydd, I think from the perspective of this side, then we don’t think that the best way to fashion that future is to look back to solutions that may have had their time in the past. The Government amendment, which we put in front of the Assembly this afternoon, makes clear that we have ambitions for the Welsh economy in the world, but we can’t achieve those ambitions by trying to take off-the-peg solutions that have had their day.

It’s clear as well, Dirprwy Lywydd, that in any response to Brexit, we are involved in an unfolding story, not some sort of short-term sprint. And Eluned Morgan’s contribution I thought was an excellent account, both of some of the drivers that we will need to draw on in shaping that future but the breadth of the issues that we have to encompass in trying to put together a distinctive approach to fashioning Wales’s future. We have to be able to do that, not immediately in the here and now—because the bits of the jigsaw around us that we rely on in order to fashion a future for Wales are themselves not set. They are not set at Whitehall, they are not set yet at Europe either. The Juncker state of the nation—

Will the Member take an intervention?

Yes, of course.

I’d be grateful. You’re quite right to say that there are many more pieces of the jigsaw to be put together till we’ve got the full picture, but one of the principles that, as I understand it, the Welsh Government stood on in June was that access to the single market was critical and it was goods, services and people that were the basic tenets of its position. That position seems to have changed over the summer. Can you confirm that there is still, at the heart of the Welsh Government’s thinking, the belief that it should be goods, services and people and not just goods and services?

Well, I think the First Minister made it clear yesterday, Dirprwy Lywydd, that in the run-up to the referendum the Welsh Government unambiguously put in front of the Welsh people our belief that Wales’s future was best secured within Europe, and the terms of trade in Europe are that you have free movement of goods, services and people. Those terms have changed. The vote on 23 June means that we cannot simply go on saying today what we said then. And what the First Minister said yesterday is that we all have, in a democratic sense, a responsibility to put our own views and our own beliefs about what is best for Wales’s future—and there’s no reason why any of us should change our minds about that—but we have to factor into that the message that we had from people in Wales who took a different view to that of many people in this Chamber.

Will you take a further intervention? Minister, will you accept that the question of freedom of movement of people wasn’t on the ballot paper? I’d just ask, are you aware of the research carried out by the Wales TUC, which asked people, in the Valleys particularly, why they voted to leave the European Union, and that this question of the free movement of people or immigration was put at No. 6 or No. 7? People’s chief concern is jobs, trade, good-quality jobs. So, would you be prepared to look at that research and perhaps revise the Government’s position on this question?

Of course, anybody would be willing to look at that research. We will never know, in a definitive ranking sense, what were the reasons that motivated people to vote the way they did on 23 June. My own more sobering experience of knocking doors in parts of Cardiff—

Look at the evidence—[Inaudible.]

There’s more than one sort of evidence, Dirprwy Lywydd, and evidence of what people say to you directly when you’re in conversations with them is not to be dismissed. On the doorstep, when I am trying to persuade people to vote for Wales’s future to be in Europe, then I can assure you that issues of immigration and free movement were very, very regularly and very prominently reported to me—[Interruption.] All I am saying, and all the First Minister said, is that we would be foolish to brush that aside as though it didn’t matter at all and we can push ahead without attending to them.

Will the Cabinet Secretary give way? He’s been very generous—

Maybe for the last time.

Yes, I’m very grateful to him. But, on the specific point raised by the leader of the Conservative group yesterday, the Welsh Government, in setting out its six key principles following the Brexit vote—not before, but following—said that freedom of movement was a key principle, a core principle. When did that change?

The Member is wrong to put it in those terms. The position of the Welsh Government is that we have to evolve the position that Wales takes in response to the developing debate. I’ve been the Minister of health in this Assembly. I don’t need anybody to convince me that our ability to go on providing core services for people in Wales depends on our ability to attract people from around the globe who are willing to come and make their futures here in Wales. There’s nothing in the Welsh Government’s position that is antipathetic to that, but we cannot, at the same time, pretend that the world that we occupied on 22 June is the world that we find ourselves in today. We have to accommodate our ambitions and our wishes for the future of Wales to the realities in which we find ourselves. That’s why, as a Government, we took immediate action following the vote on 23 June, calling the British-Irish Council, meeting the new Prime Minister, fresh and funded measures to provide confidence to business, actions to accelerate the draw-down of European funding and, alongside those immediate measures, we understand that there are a set of actions that will be needed to secure the future of our economy and all that goes with it.

Those were very important points, I thought, that Simon Thomas made about energy, renewable energy, and how we will fashion our patterns of support for people who work and live in rural communities in the future. I look forward to chairing the new advisory committee, established by the First Minister, which will have its first meeting later this week. I’m sure that much of what has been discussed today, the ideas that have been contributed, will feature in those discussions, together with all the other ideas that we will be able to draw from the wider interested community beyond this Chamber.

That’s why Jeremy Miles’s point was so important, and it’s important in relation to some of the questions that I’ve been asked. In relation to the economy, Ken Skates, as the Cabinet Secretary responsible, has begun by asking, not simply businesses and organisations, but people who live in Wales, people who cast their votes, people whom we failed to persuade to cast their votes in the way that we would like them to have cast them, to ask them for their ideas and for their priorities on how we will fashion the economy in the future, because we need to include their voices in this conversation, if we’re to have the success that we wish to have. The Secretary for the economy has already announced plans to develop the Welsh development bank and a Welsh infrastructure commission. He is getting on with the job of making Wales more prosperous and secure—ambitious, as Dai Lloyd said, and willing to break new ground in response to new circumstances, but determined to go on being an outward-looking nation, trading and communicating with others and committed to delivering a fair, prosperous and secure future for Wales.

Thank you very much. I call Adam Price to briefly respond to the debate, please.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. May I thank everyone who contributed to that most useful debate? Other than thanking you for your contributions, I have very little time to do much else. There was an element of an agreement across the parties. It was good to see Nick Ramsay supporting the need for an infrastructure commission. I agree with Jeremy Miles on the importance of the foundational sectors that Karel Williams has been doing some interesting work on. I agreed with the spirit of Eluned Morgan’s comments. That is, if I may summarise: the pessimism of the intellect and the optimism of will, in quoting Gramsci for the first time for me.

It won’t be the last time, I’m sure.

But in terms of the Cabinet Secretary, I’ve a great deal of respect for him, but I was disappointed that we didn’t get more clarity on the policy and view of Government. I do sense that he isn’t to blame for that. I do think that the policy is being made on the hoof, unfortunately. There is no accountability to the Cabinet, seemingly, to date, and certainly not to this Chamber, and that simply isn’t good enough. We must come together with a vision for Wales in the current climate, and I’m afraid that we haven’t seen that from Government as of yet.

Thank you very much. The proposal is to agree the motion without amendment. Does any Member object? [Objection.] Therefore, as a Member has objected, we will defer voting under this item until voting time.

We’ll move on to the next item on our agenda today, which is the Welsh Conservatives’ debate: the NHS workforce. I call on Angela Burns to move the motion.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. I’m pleased to move the Welsh Conservative debate motion tabled in the name of my colleague, Paul Davies, in which we ask the National Assembly to note that the retention of the front-line workforce is a major challenge facing the NHS in Wales. We ask the Welsh Government to outline its response to the recent increases in the number of vacancies for doctors in the Welsh NHS, and to implement a clear, comprehensive strategy that outlines how the Welsh Government will prioritise front-line staff recruitment and retention.

We also ask that the National Assembly recognises that stress-related illnesses are increasingly responsible for ambulance service staff being absent from work, and the impact this could have on the longer term recruitment and retention of staff. Additionally, given the stark figures on stress-related illness within the ambulance service, we would like to understand how the Welsh Government will address the issues pertaining to low staff morale during the course of the fifth Assembly. Front-line services, especially general practice, are facing a perfect storm. A combination of events, decisions and circumstance, each individually manageable, are combining to create an unprecedented situation where the service is struggling to deliver timely and comprehensive care to the public in a great number of areas. The rising tide of ill health bearing down upon front-line services is creating an enormous tension in general practice. There has been a substantial increase in the numbers of people seeking treatment.

The Welsh health survey, published in June, showed that 51 per cent of people in Wales are battling an illness, incidences of high blood pressure have risen to 20 per cent of the population, respiratory illness to 14 per cent, and mental ill health to just over 4 per cent— all of which place an increasing strain on general practice. Worryingly, people’s perception of their health has also dipped, with one in five people considering themselves in poor health. We must also bear in mind, when discussing extra pressures, that Wales has a far greater proportion of people aged 85 plus, compared to the rest of the UK. With people living longer we are seeing an increase in the rates of age-related illnesses such as dementia and some forms of cancer.

A case in point would be the rise in cancer diagnosis. Cancer cases, as a whole, were up by 14 per cent over the last 10 years, with the biggest rise being seen among women aged 65 to 69. Lung cancer incidences in women alone have risen by 57 per cent. Another example would be diabetes. Since 1996 the number of people living with diabetes has doubled in Wales: 8 per cent of the population now have either type 1 or type 2 diabetes, and estimates show that a staggering 540,000 people in Wales are at risk of getting type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, it is estimated that diabetes accounts for 10 per cent of the annual NHS Wales budget, but 80 per cent of that funding is spent on managing complications, most of which could be prevented.

As a nation, our rates of physical activity should also be considered in any discussion on our collective health. Physically inactive individuals spend, on average, 38 per cent more days in hospital; they make 5.5 per cent more GP visits, access 13 per cent more specialist services, and make 12 per cent more nurse visits than active individuals. Inactivity is a hidden killer, contributing to one in six deaths in the UK—the same level as smoking. However, more than one in three people in Wales are inactive, failing to be active for more than 30 minutes a week.

There also needs to be a far greater acceptance that many of the causes of ill health are social rather than medical in origin. I use the word ‘acceptance’ very carefully because I think there is a recognition that much of that which ails people stems from social causes; however, acceptance that it is the job of a system based on a medical model to deal with perceived social ills is not embraced in all quarters.

To illustrate my point, in a recent meeting with practising doctors, one said that listening to socially inept women crying because their boyfriends had left was creating pressures on their time. If we can accept that crying people might be there because they are depressed and need counselling, and we can put them in touch with counsellors, then I would argue that that is primary care at its best and how we need to shape it. Primary care has the opportunity to halt sadness from becoming depression; from becoming despair; becoming too much drink or drugs; and becoming long-term ill health and incapacity. Whether it’s social or medical, the increase in people seeking help compounds the pressures on general practices that are already struggling with the growing change in the demographic of doctors within general practice. Granted, the headcount for GPs—

Will you take an intervention?

Of course.

I thank you for taking the intervention, and I don’t wish to distract from the issues about GP recruitment, which I’m sure you will come on to in a short while. But, from what you have discussed so far, the Choose Well strategy that the Welsh Government proposed last year, or last session, and prudent healthcare is actually the right way to tackle some of the issues that you have just talked about.

Some of it is, and as you listen to the rest of the debate, I think you may be slightly cheered. Granted, the headcount for GPs remains fairly stable. However, there is little recognition that many of those heads are not full time. Not only has the GP’s role changed, but the way patients wish to access their GP has also changed. Patients still wish to see a named GP, and to be able to see him or her within a short space of time. To quote one doctor, who encapsulates neatly the views of many: ‘Patients want immediacy, but immediacy with the doctor of their choice at the time of their choice, and that is a gold standard. We’d all like that, but there seems to be little understanding among patients that that isn’t actually possible.’

There is also a recognition that recent years have seen a decrease in self-care, with patients no longer seeing the GP as the final call when they are showing signs of illness, but the first. Figures also show that, although appointment times have been increasing, the UK still has one of the shortest appointment times, and a total of 73 per cent of all UK GPs said they were dissatisfied with the time they were able to spend with each patient. A recent Welsh BMA survey, in February this year, clearly demonstrates that: 57 per cent of GP practices reported the quality of service had dropped in the last 12 months; and, 64 per cent said their workload was either unmanageable a lot of the time or all of the time. Many of these issues could be tackled with better workforce planning, greater education and signposting. We really need to understand the picture we have before us. Cabinet Secretary, will you undertake to review the collation and sharing of data within the primary care sector, so that we can form a clear picture and share that knowledge base with all decision makers?

I have noted that in your document, ‘A Planned Primary Care Workforce for Wales’, there is a desire to encourage primary care clusters to assess local need and match resources. However, comprehensive workforce planning needs to take into account the availability and training requirements for all the other primary care workforce, such as physiotherapists, nurses, optometrists, pharmacists, occupational therapists, speech and language therapists, healthcare support workers and clinical psychologists. We already know from committee inquiries, such as those into looked-after children, adoption, and child and adolescent mental health services, that we are facing a Wales-wide shortfall in speech and language therapists, eating disorder clinics, behavioural and social care support workers, and that timely access to mental health services is very difficult to receive.

Today’s GP is less a general doctor and more a complex care practitioner. She or he is being asked to front-line an extraordinarily diverse range of illnesses. They are being encouraged to manage as much as they can in order to take the pressure off the secondary care sector. However, in order to achieve that objective, they must be secure in the knowledge that there are a plethora of trained professionals that they can refer to. Unfortunately, there are not, which is why, Cabinet Secretary, I would ask that workforce planning is comprehensively undertaken throughout all areas of the primary sector, and that it looks at hours rather than heads, and future needs and training requirements rather than the status quo.

Training and encouraging people into primary care is absolutely key to strengthening and planning for workforce management in front-line services. The BMA has highlighted that, despite commitments from successive Labour-led Welsh Governments, the overall training places for GPs in Wales remain static. They also state that investment not only needs to be made into high-quality undergraduate and postgraduate training in Wales, but also continuing professional development. We need to look for a national medical workforce. We need to have a compulsion for junior doctors training in Wales to undertake GP rotation as part of their training. I've had this message reinforced to me by local GPs who also raise concerns over whether the medical schools really grasp the importance of rotations as a means of ensuring that general practice is not perceived as the cinderella division of the medical profession. Add to this the view that trainees don't see becoming a GP as a desirable career due to increased costs surrounding indemnities, the ageing state of the buildings, you know, increased work pressures—people are just not wanting to enter into a very necessary and valuable part of the NHS workforce.

Finally, I'd like to quickly turn to the Plaid amendment, which we will be abstaining on. Now, I totally accept that there’s empirical evidence that clearly suggests that medical students often stay in the area where they are trained, and I recognise that this amendment mirrors the call by the Royal College of Physicians. However, such is the shortage of doctors, I would suggest that if a Scot, an Italian or a Welsh-domiciled person were to train in our medical schools, then we should embrace them with open arms and seek to retain them in the country where they have trained. I would also like to understand better how many Welsh-domiciled students are refused training or choose to train away because they cannot get the place locally. Hence an abstention, because I can be persuaded if you can show us the evidence. I think that a stronger argument, which my colleague will develop, is that we should increase the number of training places available and broaden the geographical research.

Cabinet Secretary, this is a crisis that is enveloping general practice. So, in summation, we would like to see a recruitment programme that encapsulates the needs of partners and families, comprehensive workforce planning undertaken that includes all the strata of primary health care in order to ensure that general practice has the ability to refer patients across the piece in a timely manner, that there are changes made to the training of junior doctors in order to ensure that rotations into general practice are as routine and valued as rotations into cardiology or acute medicine, that a review is undertaken into the financial pressures in general practice from capital expenditure to indemnity insurance, that a comprehensive package is worked out with health boards and the ambulance trust to better understand the causes of the high levels of stress-related illnesses the services experience and that an accessible programme of intervention for individuals to access is put in place, and that the voice of general practice is strengthened and put front and centre in health board and Government planning. If you achieve this, Cabinet Secretary, you will avert the storm building in front-line services, and we, the Welsh Conservatives, will support you in this endeavour. Thank you.

Thank you very much. I have selected the amendment to the motion and therefore I call on Rhun ap Iorwerth to move amendment 1, tabled in the name of Simon Thomas.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. I’m very pleased to move this amendment and to speak in this debate. I do believe that workforce planning and responding to the problem of a staff shortage, or the crisis of a staff shortage in some areas of the service, are some of the most important matters that face us as we try to plan an NHS that truly answers the needs of the people of Wales. I welcome the opportunity once again to outline the positive vision of Plaid Cymru for recruitment within the NHS—we are the only party, I believe, that has consistently been underlining the need for additional doctors specifically, but also other health practitioners.

This debate is a very timely one, too, because it comes as the BMA has warned again about a recruitment crisis amongst GPs, with 20 practices having been returned to the care of health boards in the past year alone. And the facts speak for themselves: Wales has the lowest number of doctors per head of population of any UK nation. And, yes, we’ve heard the Government mention an increase in the number of GPs, but what we’ve seen is more working part-time—a greater headcount, perhaps, as we heard from the Conservatives, but not more full-time GP posts. That’s decreasing and that’s entirely clear.

There’s a concern, of course, about what will come in coming years, with over 23 per cent of the workforce aged over 55, and that figure increasing to a frightening level of 50 per cent in areas such as the south Wales Valleys. The Wales Deanery has noted that the target for recruitment for GP training is lower in Wales than it is in the rest of the UK nations, and that target was set a decade ago. So, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to see some of these problems that we’re facing today.

This is happening, of course, at a time when surgeries—nine out of 10 of them, according to BMA research—say that demand for their appointments is increasing. This isn’t sustainable, and I hope that everyone here in the Chamber today is agreed on that.

Let us also look at district nurses. According to the RCN, if the current decline in numbers continues then we won’t have any district nurses in as little as five years’ time. The number of district nurses has decreased from 876 to 519 full-time posts in a period of five years.

We’ll move on from primary care. Recruitment problems are one of the main causes of loss of services in general hospitals over the past few years. According to BMA figures, again, we believe that over 10 per cent of specialists in Wales are locums. We know what the cost of that is, too, as well as the uncertainty caused. That figure of 10 per cent is over double the level in England. We need to recruit, we need to be innovative in doing so, we need to offer incentives, financial and otherwise, and we also need to look at questions such as medical indemnity.

I will make my last comments on what we specifically call for in our amendment today.

Mae ein gwelliant heddiw yn ymwneud â’r angen hirdymor i hyfforddi cenhedlaeth newydd o feddygon a nyrsys. Nid yw hynny’n golygu, wrth gwrs, nad oes mesurau tymor byr y dymunwn eu gweld yn cael eu rhoi ar waith yn awr. Mae recriwtio o’r tu allan i Gymru i hyfforddiant meddygol yn hanfodol wrth gwrs, ond mae’n rhaid i ni hyfforddi mwy o feddygon a nyrsys o Gymru yng Nghymru. Nid ni’n unig sy’n dweud hyn; mae’r arbenigwyr yn y maes yn ei ddweud. Mae angen i ni wneud hynny yn ein canolfannau hyfforddi presennol a chanolfan newydd ym Mangor hefyd. Mae meddygon sy’n hyfforddi yng Nghymru yn fwy tebygol o aros yng Nghymru. Mae meddygon o Gymru sy’n hyfforddi yng Nghymru yn bendant yn llawer mwy tebygol o aros yng Nghymru. Edrychwch ar y ffigurau gan Goleg Brenhinol y Meddygon, sy’n cytuno’n llwyr â ni ar yr angen am hyfforddiant meddygol yma yng Nghymru: dim ond 30 y cant o fyfyrwyr mewn ysgolion meddygol yng Nghymru sy’n dod o Gymru, o gymharu â 55 y cant yn yr Alban, 80 y cant yn Lloegr ac 85 y cant yng Ngogledd Iwerddon. A byddem yn cefnogi system gwota. Mae cwotâu wedi gweithio’n dda wrth gynyddu recriwtio i ardaloedd gwledig mewn llawer o wledydd, gan gynnwys Awstralia. Mae cangen meddygon teulu Deoniaeth Cymru a llawer o academyddion sydd eisoes yn gweithio yn ein hysgolion meddygol yn cefnogi cwotâu, ac rydym am gyrraedd y pwynt lle gall unrhyw fyfyriwr o Gymru sydd â’r graddau academaidd gofynnol astudio meddygaeth yng Nghymru os yw’n dymuno. Fe ildiaf.

I’ll be generous. Go on.

Thank you.

I’m nearly done.

Just very quickly, do you have the evidence that says that Welsh students are being turned away from being able to train in Welsh medical schools because they’re already full with other people? If you have that evidence, I’d like to hear it.

There is of course a lot of anecdotal evidence. This is a piece of work that is being done. I believe it’s already under way now. This is a piece of work that is vital. We know from anecdotal evidence that this is happening. We need that empirical evidence, absolutely. I am totally convinced that that is the case. I could also mention, of course, the need to do this and to ensure that we have adequate Welsh-language staff within the NHS—not because it’s a nice thing, but because it is vital for, for example, dementia patients. And of course we need to make medicine an attractive proposition for young people again, so we reverse that decline in the numbers of students making applications. So, let’s have a more proactive approach to workforce planning. I look forward to hearing what the Cabinet Secretary has to say.

Front-line capacity in the NHS is on the verge of turning from a weakness into being a threat to the sustainability of the service as it’s modelled today. While that threat might be manifesting itself across the UK to varying degrees, it’s mattering most here in Wales now. This debate is not tabled just to have go at Welsh Government, although we do invite you to be frank here. This Assembly’s concerns about workforce planning, the deanery and the slothful approach to horizon scanning for gaps in clinical provision aren’t new. So, we do hold you to account for your unwillingness to change tack when previous forays into this haven’t worked and we do hold you to account that unprecedented cuts to the health budget in the last Assembly made the Welsh NHS a less attractive place to work.

While I’m sure you’ll want to divert attention in your response, Cabinet Secretary, we don’t really care that much about your views on the NHS in England; we care an awful lot about your plans for the NHS in Wales. So, this debate is primarily tabled with a benign purpose and that is to help you flush out the challenges, some new ideas from all parties—you’ve heard from us and from Plaid—and the priority actions on which we might be glad to support you. Let this Assembly help you. Just be aware that, as representatives of the people of Wales, we cannot accept a same-old, same-old strategy presented by you in the hope that this problem will go away.

The Welsh Conservatives are asking you for a comprehensive strategy. That means it must include, or at least be drawn up in parallel with, a strategy to reduce demand on the NHS in the first place. That means enabling, encouraging and maybe even insisting in some cases that we take more responsibility for our own health. So you shouldn’t dismiss ideas such as charging for missed appointments or informing patients of the cost of their prescribed drugs just because the Welsh Conservatives came up with those ideas. Please consider variations on those that are more palatable to you. Don’t dismiss the voluntary at-home assessments and the at-home wardens just because they’re Welsh Conservatives commitments. At heart, these are sound proposals for helping prevent those with degenerative conditions, age-related or otherwise, manage and control their own lives without early resort to the medical profession.

And don’t be afraid to take the Welsh Government badge off the public health messages. I’m not going to stop buying doughnuts because the Cabinet Secretary tells me—in sporadic advertising campaigns—that they’re bad for me, but I might if they weren’t used as loss-leaders in supermarkets or if I were repeatedly exposed to sugar and fat warnings on them or pictures of clogged-up hearts on the box. Stick a sign to the lift saying you could have used 20 calories using the stairs, but don’t stick a Welsh Government logo on it. With public health, legislate or get others to fire your strategic bullets for you.

Your key assets in reducing demand on the NHS are the value and power of other services. Angela mentioned a few, but I’m including here social services, bodies like housing associations, the third sector, of course, or society itself. Our young people should be growing up seeing responsibility for others as a natural part of life, even if it’s just that understanding that you get social and emotional support by being a member of some sort of community. So much of our good health could be supported from outside the NHS by nudging our culture away from ‘a pill for every ill’, just as Angela said. Good continuity of social care, for example, where the individual’s views are completely material to what that care looks like, can help older people maintain confidence at home if every point of contact, in or outside the NHS, has reinforced the information about, say, preventing falls, what help you might get at a pharmacy, and how technology helps you stay in touch with the people who matter to you.

None of this is instead of a robust front-line professional well-trained NHS workforce. But we will not stop inappropriate arrivals at A&E—choosing well will mean nothing—until people can get hold of a GP or a specialist nurse when they’re anxious about their health, however many helplines we have. We won’t stop people reaching mental health crises until we have more psychologists, as well as psychiatrists, in the health service. But early intervention, whether that’s through the NHS or not, is part of reducing the often crippling pressure, I’d say, of demand on those who we think of as front-line staff. That, in itself, makes the Welsh NHS a little more attractive as a place to train and stay. Thank you.

I’m grateful for the opportunity to contribute to this debate and pay tribute to the diversity and dedication of our Welsh NHS workforce that work hard, day in, day out, in the face of many challenges, some of which are acute: a workforce that all too often not only finds itself at the sharp end, but also has the collateral damage of what can feel to them like constant criticism, unfortunately, in public discourse. Unsurprisingly, a lot of the debate today and much of time focuses on the front-line staff that we’re most familiar with—the doctors, the nurses, the paramedics. I’d just like to take a moment to mention the many staff that I’ve had the privilege of working on behalf prior to being elected to this Assembly earlier in the year—the range of those who not only make up the front line but also the backbone of our NHS, and keep it functioning: the clinicians, the scientists, the health visitors, the physiotherapists, the porters, the estate and maintenance staff, and many more—staff for whom the financial pressures faced by the NHS are all-too real but who also recognise the positive—well, most of the time they’re positive, because, like all relationships, it has its ups and downs—partnership working between trade unions and employees of Government in Wales. Whilst I know from my own experience that negotiations might not always deliver everything that is demanded, the door is always open for discussion here in Wales, which is actually, unfortunately, in stark contrast to over the border, where trade union colleagues often see the door firmly shut in their face. It’s not a simple coincidence that industrial action is happening in England while it’s not in Wales. As a result of this relationship, directly employed staff in the NHS are now paid a living wage, and I’m proud to have played just a tiny part in making sure this happened by playing my small part in the partnership discussions and working to make sure not only did this happen, but that there are also better terms and conditions for NHS Wales employees.

Yes, as people have said, there are challenges in the NHS and there are always ways in which we can improve. I know first-hand, as I’m sure many in this room do, and the Minister does himself, that those on the coalface are always only too happy to offer their advice and ideas and, indeed, those on the shop floor, as we say, are often best placed to tell politicians not how it is, but also how it could be done in the future, going forward. Whilst that might not bring us a radical revolution within the NHS, those many incremental ideas could bring about positive change in the future.

Would you take an intervention?

Sure.

Thank you. I would just like to make the point that much of my speech has been predicated on the discussions that I’ve had with GPs and with the Royal College of Physicians and with the British Medical Association. So, we are listening to what they have to say. Many of these ideas are their ideas and we would like the Welsh Government to listen to what they say.

Absolutely, and you’ve just almost summed up what I was going to say in conclusion that, as I said, going forward, I’d urge the Government and others to make sure the whole of the workforce, through their various professional bodies and trade unions, are a part of shaping a world-class NHS and one that everybody can be proud to be part of.

I welcome the opportunity to speak in the debate this afternoon. It’s an opportunity to look at an issue that affects all health services across the whole of the United Kingdom, and indeed across the whole of the western world, about creating a modern staffing environment and the multidisciplinary teams that form the backbone of the health service in whatever western country you happen to live in. But, Wales does seem to have had a perennial problem in attracting and, importantly, retaining staff to make sure that those multidisciplinary teams can continue to work and deliver the service. Very often, there’s little or no point in having 90 per cent of that team intact when the one important component, the 10 per cent, is away, because the whole team falls down then.

I really did learn that when we were in the third Assembly, when the health committee then did an inquiry into stroke services, and Dai Lloyd came along with me to the Cardiff Royal Infirmary stroke unit, which I think we’re all very pleased has been replaced, because the facilities there were very antiquated—it’s been moved up to Llandough now. Just by witnessing how that team interacted with each other, we saw if you just took one cog out of that multidisciplinary team, then the bulk of the rehabilitation that was on offer to the patients who presented basically was just put on hold and the patient was just left in limbo, through no fault of the team, but through maybe illness, absence or just an inability to attract that key worker, such as that key speech therapist, as Suzy Davies touched on—that key individual who can drive forward the rehabilitation and the reinvigoration of that individual’s life.

This debate today, which was opened by Angela Burns, really is looking now to the Cabinet Secretary for health to try to map out, with a five-year plan, what he wants to achieve by addressing some of the demons—let’s call them that—that have really blighted the health service here in Wales, about the attraction that the health service needs to have to retain people in a very stressful environment that has people working at the top of their game, rolling up their sleeves and delivering for the public good, but who ultimately are feeling that, year on year, week on week, day in, day out, that pressure is getting more and more like a pressure cooker environment. They’re either walking away from that environment or they’re having to take long bouts of time off for sickness and they’re not getting the support that would allow them to function at the top of their game. I do believe that this is an opportunity now, with the election behind us and we’re in the early stages of this Government, for some of these real tough nuts that haven’t been cracked over successive governments to be addressed. The important thing here is to make sure that we create an environment that people can have confidence in to look after their long term interest, create an ability to progress their careers, but, above all, respond to the ever increasing demands that the health service faces day in, day out today here in Wales and, indeed, across the United Kingdom.

It was in yesterday’s Plenary session that Julie Morgan touched upon the fact that the population of Cardiff each year is expanding by between 10,000 and 15,000 people. That is a huge increase in just one area—in an area that can most probably reach out and attract new people. But, when you spread that out across the rest of Wales and, in particular, into some of the more rural areas of Wales there is a real issue about getting people to travel to the furthest parts of west Wales, for example. Withybush hospital, as my colleagues, Paul Davies and Angela Burns, have championed here, is finding it difficult to fill those rotas and fill those rosters. It just cannot be good enough that services are temporarily suspended for another couple of months because this issue has reared its head again. There must be a solution that can be put in place by the Government who do have the mandate to deliver a functioning NHS here in Wales that people want to work in.

It was only yesterday that we actually had the figures that, regrettably, show that there’s been a 15 per cent decline in students going forward into medicine here in Wales. That decline has been across the United Kingdom, I accept that, but here in Wales that decline is more marked than other parts of the United Kingdom. That must be a source of great concern when you think over the last five or 10 years the various initiatives that have come forward to try and make medicine a more attractive profession, a more attractive way of bringing people into Wales—we’re not doing that. We’re not seeing that happening on the ground by those very figures. But, importantly as well, whilst it’s important to reflect on attracting staff, retention is a really, really important part of, surely, what a modern workforce should be about. We invest and the Government invest and the health boards invest a huge amount of money in developing the skills and talents of individuals in a highly complex environment and, yet, very often through poor management and neglect, those individuals walk away from that career, and a career that very often is only 50 per cent the way through or maybe even three quarters of the way through what potentially could offer so much more back. So, I hope the Cabinet Secretary will use the opportunity to respond to the genuine points that have been put forward, because he does have a new mandate. He has a mandate to deliver and I do hope that he will engage in giving us some feeling of how he will take forward the proposals of the new Government in addressing some of these long-term structural problems that have been at the very heart of providing a modern twenty-first century health service here in Wales.

I would like to thank the Welsh Conservatives for bringing forward this debate. It’s very welcome. Also, I’d like to commend the NHS staff for the work that they do, often under very difficult circumstances. Problems with the recruitment and retention of front-line staff, clinicians in particular, have been well documented in recent years. Staff shortages have led to increased workloads, which have become unmanageable for many frontline staff. Unmanageable workloads have affected staff morale, led to an increase in stress-related illness and forced many clinicians to leave the field altogether. Nowhere is this more evident than in general practice. Some GPs have seen their caseloads double in recent years with practices unable to recruit GPs. A GP seeing 80 patients during a consultation is now not unheard of. These unmanageable workloads have led many GPs to quit general practice altogether, thus compounding the problem. The Royal College of General Practitioners states that we need to recruit an additional 400 GPs over the next four years as we are failing to fill the training places we already have.

The Welsh Government must be more creative when it comes to recruiting clinicians. We must incentivise clinicians to train and work in Wales. The recruitment of Welsh-speaking staff is also important to cope with patients who can only speak Welsh and perhaps are suffering, as Rhun said, from dementia. Above all, we must incentivise clinicians to stay in Wales. According to the Royal College of Physicians there is a distinct lack of research undertaken to understand the drivers for recruitment and retention.

Decisions on future medical recruitment strategies are not based on robust evidence. It is therefore imperative that we collect more data to assist us with future recruitment campaigns. But we mustn’t only focus on front-line staff, as important as it is. The NHS is Wales’s biggest employer with around 72,000 people working in it. There are just under 6,000 hospital clinicians and 2,000 GPs working in NHS Wales. Without the vast number of nurses, scientific, therapeutic and technical staff, patients could not be treated. Without the administration and support staff our hospitals and GP surgeries wouldn’t be able to function. So, we cannot recruit more clinicians without ensuring that there are sufficient staff to make the appointments, conduct the diagnostic tests, transport patients and nurse patients back to health. They need to ensure that there are sufficient staff across the NHS to cope with the increasing demands on services.

So, future workforce planning in the NHS has not—and the Welsh Government has to ensure that there are sufficient resources put into workforce planning otherwise we will be having the same discussion in another five years.

UKIP will be supporting the motion today because there is a crisis in GP recruitment and we could soon be facing a crisis in other clinical fields.

We also ask about the possibility—because when people go to be trained as a doctor they have to have eight A* GCSEs and at the moment we are asking that—when we’ve spoken to some doctors who are currently, say, in their forties or fifties, many have said that they would struggle to achieve these grades. So, we’re wondering if the emphasis could be put perhaps on the A –level grades as opposed to the eight A*s. This doesn’t mean putting down, but just ensuring that Welsh universities in their pursuit of attracting the brightest students in the world don’t put Welsh students at a disadvantage. Cardiff are asking for eight A*s, and GCSE results, we feel, shouldn’t have as much bearing as long as the student has the requisite A-levels. Perhaps Cardiff could re-envisage this qualification. I look forward to the Cabinet Secretary’s reply and his plans for tackling NHS recruitment. Thank you.

Thank you, Madam Presiding Officer. Health is the first law of the land, therefore we all want to see the NHS in Wales delivering high-quality healthcare. To achieve this, we need a well-resourced and high-performing workforce. However, it is clear that the recruitment and retention of front-line staff has become a major challenge facing the NHS in Wales today.

We all know that NHS staff are working tirelessly to meet the demands of patient healthcare. But doctors in both primary and secondary care are reporting increasing and unmanageable workloads.

Presiding Officer, since 2009-10, demand on our hospitals has risen by 2.5 per cent—22,000 more consultant episodes took place in 2014-15. A recent survey by the British Medical Association found that 30 per cent of junior doctors said their workload was unsustainable and unmanageable. These pressures are reflected in increasing stress-related illnesses among NHS staff. A third of NHS staff in Wales report having suffered work-related stress or illnesses due to stress in the past year. Last year, stress-related illnesses concerning anxiety, depression and other conditions resulted in 13,400 days lost by ambulance service staff only.

Recruiting staff to ease these pressures has proved a problem. Health boards face difficulty in filling these vacancies. Just under 17 per cent of all junior doctor positions are unfilled in Wales. This equates to a shortage of 3,000—sorry, 331 doctors are actually short at the moment in Wales. In September last year, 1,240 positions were unfilled in Wales. The highest number of vacancies was in my own area, Nye Bevan health board—260 positions were unfilled. This failure to recruit has had serious financial consequences: more than £60 million has been spent on agency nursing staff in the last five years. Although it is vital that gaps in nursing coverage should be plugged, this is not sustainable in the long term, and strategies need to be changed.

Evidence exists that the problem of staff shortages is likely to grow. The BMA reports that an increasing number of doctors are planning or have considered early retirement. An ageing workforce, combined with difficulty in recruiting trainees demonstrates the need to address these challenges as a matter of urgency. We need to train more new doctors in primary care in Wales. According to BMA, the overall number of training places for GPs in Wales remains static. GPs and practice nurses are at the heart of service delivery. Recruitment and retention of these staff must be a priority for this Government. We need a clear strategy from the Welsh Government for future workforce planning. Closer cross-border working and effective incentives must be used to fill geographical and specialist gaps in our health service.

We must provide the skills to adopt the modern healthcare needs that we want in Wales. Traditional models of care are becoming increasingly unsuitable for today’s healthcare needs. The delivery of healthcare is a fast-changing world. Education and research are driving forward innovation. We must ensure the skills of the existing workforce are updated continuously to deliver real change. We must shift the emphasis in the training and education budget to fund continual professional development in Wales, and we must monitor it.

We need effective public health initiatives also to relieve the burden on NHS finances and release money for front-line core services. Presiding Officer, I know two doctors. Their parents had Pakistani, poor backgrounds. One was a market trader, another, who died, was also selling clothes door to door. Both are young doctors. I meet them virtually week after week. One said, ‘Uncle, I’m working in a hospital, but, believe me, my family life is shattered’, because he’s too tired to go home and look after his family. There are a lot of things we can discuss about these doctors’ problems also that haven’t been considered in this Chamber yet.

Presiding Officer, the Welsh Government must bring forward a clear strategy, address the problem of recruitment and retention of NHS staff—all, right from carers to the consultants. This is vital if we are to create the well-resourced and high-performing NHS that the people of Wales need and deserve here. Thank you.

Many speakers today have talked about the remarkable work carried out by health workers in Wales, and who hasn’t heard about the extreme sensitivity used by some of our palliative care nurses with people in their dying moments? Who hasn’t heard about those incredible stories of how surgeons have saved the lives of a dying child and how that’s transformed and given meaning back to the life of those parents? Who hasn’t marvelled at the ability of GPs to see a patient every 10 minutes without being totally frazzled, and I know, because I live with one?

I’m not sure where Caroline Jones got her figures from in terms of the 10 A*s. I was going to have to go back and whip my son into gear, because we are so desperate for GPs, I think we all need to make a contribution here. He’s never going to get 10 As the way he’s going now. But, fortunately, you need a B in maths, a B in English and three As and a B in a science, so we may be lucky there.

But the key thing, I think, we have to understand is that, as Hannah has pointed out, it’s not just the people who are working on the front line we must remember. We must remember those people, the unsung heroes, who are just as important—those cleaners who are making sure that we don’t have C. difficile and we have attacked the issue of MRSA in our hospitals.

We know that almost all NHS workers are under extreme pressure, and that’s partly because we now have an ageing population. Our NHS is also under extreme pressure because we have to finance these new expensive technological developments and new medicines that are demanded by patients. Angela Burns is absolutely right to point out that the expectations of patients today are things that are very difficult to meet.

Proportionately, the fact is that we spend less in percentage terms in this country on health than Portugal, France and the Netherlands. Of course, whilst there’s room for improved efficiency, I think there will come a point where we have to have an honest conversation with the public—that they will have to understand that if they want more, they will have to pay more, or we will have to cut back in other services in order to pay for that help. We all seem terrified to have that honest debate with the public, and at some point we will have to do that.

The NHS in Wales is coping remarkably well under the circumstances. We have got an older and a sicker population, and yet our NHS is no worse, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development than any other part of the UK. With that ageing population, we are likely to see more complex care needs develop—care that doesn’t necessarily need a hospital stay but will require that extensive nursing. A 44 per cent rise in the over-65-year-olds has been predicted by the Office for National Statistics over the next 25 years. A 44 per cent rise. If you think about the over-80s, by 2040 we will have over 30,000 people who are over 80 living in Wales. That’s the whole of Llanelli—every single person in Llanelli over 80. Are we ready for that? Are we prepared for it? No way. We don’t have the kind of plan or strategy that will be required. We need to think about that, and we need to understand that that pressure on the health service is not just about health, it’s about our care services—that cinderella service that we always forget about. It’s important that we understand that it’s financed in a different way and that we need to understand the relationship. The Government has understood that relationship. We have the intermediate care plan. It’s beginning to kick in. We will need more of that, without question. If we want to avoid treating patients on trolleys in the hospitals of the future, we need to know that we can release people back to their homes and to their communities.

That cinderella service, I think, we have to change. We have to change our attitudes, we have to appreciate this vital service that we’re all going to need in some way or another, and we have to have a serious conversation about how on earth we’re going to pay for it. Care workers are poorly paid, they’re poorly qualified and they need increased support. We need to work out how we incentivise people to attract them to that important service, and we need to keep people in that sector for the demands of the future.

I think it’s also worth asking how we can look at different models. If you look at the Solva Care model, which is a very interesting model, we have volunteers from the community doing some of the care work that obviously doesn’t require nurse training but that can relieve some of that pressure on our care services as well. Until we address that care service issue we will see more delayed transfers of care, we will see an increase in emergency admissions, putting further pressure on the NHS workforce. At some point, we will need that honest debate with the public about how we fund this.

It’s entirely apparent from all the contributions in the Chamber today that we need a strategy as a matter of urgency to train more doctors in Wales. I will make a case that this strategy will have to be one that is pan Wales. We do have two medical schools—one in Swansea and one in Cardiff—but we have nothing whatsoever in north Wales or in mid Wales. If we are going to start to fill these gaps in terms of doctors and GPs in north Wales, then we do have to provide that training in north Wales. As we have heard on a number of occasions, students do tend to remain in the areas where they train to become doctors. And if we don’t train them in north Wales, then there is no hope of retaining them, clearly, and it becomes very difficult, then, to retain people in the area, because you have nothing in place in the first place. There is a report by Professor Longley from the University of South Wales that demonstrates that 95 per cent of doctors who are trained in Wales do remain in Wales, which is excellent, but what we want is more doctors remaining in Wales, and certainly there is a need for more doctors moving to north Wales, or the problem will simply become critical—even more critical than it is at present.

I’m very pleased to hear that there is some momentum behind this concept of a medical school in Bangor. I’m very pleased that a business case has been drawn up at last by the Welsh Government, and I look forward to seeing that. The people I’ve spoken to—Bangor University, the north Wales health board, the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol, the medical association—everyone is in favour of this principle, and therefore it makes sense to move ahead with it. There are a number of very specific reasons as to why we need to take this seriously now. The university in Bangor and the health board are working in partnership already. Bangor University is already providing a wide range of medical health-related education and social care education. It’s a natural step, therefore, to reinforce Bangor’s position as an internationally important research centre. The health board and the university would benefit as entities. Both would be strengthened in retaining the best staff and the best students in the area, and in turn that would strengthen the local economy, with two institutions being major local employers.

We could establish a medical training centre through the medium of Welsh in Bangor. That would be the natural place for that to happen, bearing in mind the strength of the Welsh language in that area. That, in turn, would enhance the supply of bilingual doctors that are needed. In order to achieve your own Government’s strategies, such as the ‘More than just words…’ strategy, we need those bilingual doctors, and there simply aren’t enough of them at present. A medical school with an emphasis on rural medicine would be unique, not only to Wales, but it could also provide innovative solutions and attract students from across the world who are interested in providing care to an ageing population in a rural context. That is relevant in other parts of the world too, of course. But, more than anything, a medical school in north Wales would enhance the service that the people of Wales are provided with. There is no doubt about that. North Wales does feel that it is often forgotten. You will be aware of that. There is a feeling that we are being left behind. This is a very real opportunity for the Welsh Government to show support for north Wales and for our rural areas. So, why not be ambitious? Why not move ahead with this proposal, and, who knows, a medical school, in turn, could lead to other training in north Wales—dentistry, pharmacy, physiotherapy, and so on? Therefore, there is a clear case here. A series called ‘Doctoriaid Yfory ‘—doctors of the future—has just started on S4C, and I was watching it last night. There is so much talent here, and we now need to provide opportunities for more young people, such as the ones we see in that programme, to be trained here in Wales and in north Wales specifically. That, ultimately, will improve the health service for all.

I call on the Cabinet Secretary for Health, Well-being and Sport, Vaughan Gething.

Thank you, Llywydd. I’m grateful to the Conservative Party for tabling today’s debate, and the opportunity it provides to set out the significant work being done in this area by health boards, trusts and the Welsh Government. There are, of course, challenges for recruitment and retention in Wales, across the NHS family in the UK and further afield in most western healthcare systems. I can confirm that the Government will support both the motion and the amendment today. We have already had some successes here in Wales, and we should recognise that. But this is not an exercise in complacency by the Government. We do, as I say, recognise that there are challenges, and we are in the process of taking action.

It’s fair to say that, in Wales, our retention and recruitment rates have remained consistent, with staff, for example, leaving in fewer numbers when compared to those in England. However, there are areas where there are real difficulties. We know there are particular roles that are in high demand and have a comparatively high turnover.

And part of our challenge is the way in which we do talk about NHS Wales. We know it has a real impact on morale and recruitment, and a range of the criticism that is regularly meted out is not fair and objectively accurate. Paramedics, for example, regularly described this to me over the last period of the year or two. For example, Ceri Phillips mentioned it this week when talking about the ability to encourage people to consider careers in medicine and allied professions. But I’m actually encouraged by the manner—the constructive manner—both of the opening of the debate and the contribution of Members around the Chamber. The way that we talk constructively about the service can make a difference to having a real and searching debate about the health service, but doing it in such a way that we do not reach for headline-grabbing and unsupportable calls.

I recognise that retention is a key area of focus, and significant work is already under way, with health boards currently considering the broader aspect of staff engagement, such as appraisal and development, so staff feel supported and valued throughout their careers. An NHS staff survey is already under way, with the support of trade unions, to help us to understand the issues faced by our staff, and the results of that will feed into the changes that we wish to make to help aid retention. Of course, where turnover and vacancies exist, we need to recruit on a regular basis, and health boards already take a range of measures to try and fill those vacancies. They include European and international recruitment drives, promotion and the extension of return-to-practice schemes, local marketing and recruitment activity, to name but a few.

Whilst today’s discussion has focused on recruitment and retention challenges, it is a fact that there are now more front-line NHS staff working in Wales than ever before. Full-time equivalent staff numbers have increased by more than 2,200 in the last year. That’s an increase of 3.1 per cent, and an increase of double on the previous year. It is a fact that the numbers of consultants, other doctors, nurses and midwives have reached record highs. That means that the NHS workforce in Wales continues to grow in the face of continuing austerity, and yet, despite those record staff numbers, we know that we still face a challenging recruitment market, and that’s why the Government is already taking action to support health boards to recruit and train additional doctors. We’re building on last year’s campaign by launching a major national and international campaign to market Wales as a great place for doctors to train, work and live. The campaign will launch in October and has been developed to support health board and trust activity consistently, under the banner of NHS Wales. Its initial focus will be on doctors, but it will then extend to take into account the wider NHS workforce, and I’m pleased to hear a range of speakers in the Chamber today mention the fact that the NHS is not just doctors, not just nurses, but a whole range of different professional and supportive groups. I will be making a fuller statement on that campaign in the Chamber next week.

Will you take an intervention, Minister?

Yes, a couple of seconds.

Has that campaign been discussed and tested with the professions, such as the Royal College of Nursing and the BMA, to see that the input that they could give at this early stage could be beneficial in the roll-out of that campaign? So, has that discussion taken place?

I’m very pleased to say that discussion is taking place. At the ministerial task group that I set up—I chaired it a few weeks ago—it is part of our ongoing and engaging discussion. Indeed, in the early months of my time in this particular post, I’ve met those particular stakeholders, and they are continuing to work with the Government on designing and delivering our campaign. I’m actually positive about the constructive and generally positive way that they are engaging with us, and they are supportive of the direction that we are taking.

I’ve previously said in this Chamber that we are committed to developing a 10-year workforce plan for the NHS. It should be a clear vision, with priority areas of work for the Government, for NHS Wales, and for our partners, to address the challenges that we face now and in the future. The plan must take account of the full range of professionals working in the NHS and be based on new models of care, and not plugging gaps in existing services—this, again, has been mentioned in other Members’ contributions, including in the opening from Angela Burns—because we know that we need to change how we provide health and care to continue to meet the rising levels of complexity and demand that we face. Simply trying to increase capacity will not be enough to deliver the health and care services that we need.

In the summer recess, I jointly met the deans of both medical schools in Wales, and they identified the importance of reviewing the activities already in place to encourage Welsh students to aspire to a career in medicine and to encourage them to consider starting their education for that career here in Wales. We’ve looked to identify barriers or obstacles that might exist or disadvantage candidates from Wales.

Turning to the ambulance trust mentioned in the motion, in fact, sickness absence in the ambulance service has reduced over the last year, but we recognise that it is still too high. Support for staff has been raised with me by the staff trade unions, in my conversations with them, for the stressful environment they do already work in. I’m pleased to say that the ambulance trust is investing significantly in their own health and well-being services. That includes a new employee assistance programme with direct 24/7 access to counsellors and fully tailored packages of counselling.

It’s also important to note that the Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust is an improving organisation, albeit certainly not perfect, not only in response times, but in the highly competitive world of paramedic recruitment. Staff are now positively coming to Wales for their careers in paramedicine, and we expect to be at or near full head count this year. Given the position that the ambulance trust was in even 18 months ago, that is a remarkable improvement and a real success story that I hope will be recognised and welcomed across this Chamber.

Our vision is for a high-quality and compassionate national health service here in Wales with improving outcomes with and for our citizens. Staff recruitment and retention are of course undeniably significant challenges here in Wales to be met to achieve that vision. We will continue to act with partners to recruit the staff that we need to deliver and improve upon the high-quality compassionate care that I’m proud to say that NHS Wales delivers with and for communities right across Wales as a regular experience that we already have.

I call on Darren Millar to reply to the debate.

Diolch, Lywydd. I have to say I’m very encouraged to hear the Minister’s response to the motion that we’ve tabled today. I think it’s good that the Welsh Government is at least recognising now that the workforce planning of the past, and the way in which the workforce planning has been undertaken, has been inadequate and that there is a need to engage more widely with the stakeholders that are out there that are willing to engage and want to contribute to make Wales a place in which clinicians and other professionals that want to work in the health field want to come to, and actually work in our NHS here.

I was also pleased, I have to say, during First Minister’s questions yesterday, that the First Minister recognised the importance of selling Wales to the wider family and not just the clinicians themselves, as part of that international recruitment exercise that the Welsh Government is about to embark upon. So, a very encouraging start indeed, and I do hope that further work is done to ensure that everybody can work together in order to deliver what we all know we need, which is a workforce that is fit for the twenty-first century NHS that we all want.

I was pleased also to hear the recognition that we don’t just need to increase the capacity of the existing workforce, but that we also need to deal with demands—sometimes unrealistic demands—that are being placed upon the workforce and the NHS by patients. I have to say that we’ve been big supporters of the Welsh Government’s prudent healthcare agenda, and we will continue to be, and I would very much hope, and it certainly sounds like it, that the Welsh Government is getting onto our page in terms of patients accepting more responsibility themselves for the way in which they use the NHS and the resources of the NHS. I was pleased to hear a number of speakers during the debate make reference to the importance of public health and, indeed, the social care system and the way that that can also help to prevent unnecessary demand being pushed on to the doorstep of the national health service.

The Minister didn’t respond in this debate to the amendment that had been tabled specifically by Plaid Cymru. I know he said that he would be supporting it. But nor did he respond to the need to establish a medical school in north Wales. Whilst I know that there’s been some ongoing work, shall we say, looking at the feasibility of the establishment of a medical school up there, I think it is extremely important that we make sure that there are training rotations in north Wales that will attract people to work in that area in the future. I wonder, Minister—there’s a little bit of time left—whether you might be able to give us an update on any work that is being done to develop training rotations between the north-west of England and north Wales as well, which traditionally has helped to ensure that there is an adequate supply of GPs and other medical professionals in that region.

Are you able to provide any sort of update? If you’re not, I appreciate that we’re out of time. Perhaps he could write to Members just to give us some confidence that that is actually going to take place, given the previous Minister’s commitments in the past. Thank you.

The proposal is to agree the motion without amendment. Does any Member object? No, so the motion without amendment is therefore agreed in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

The next item on the agenda is the United Kingdom Independence Party debate. I call on Neil Hamilton to move the motion.

Diolch yn fawr iawn, Lywydd. As we approach the end of another hard day at the ‘wordface’, Members may be forgiven for thinking, as we have another debate on Brexit, that the subject may be inexhaustible but we are not. But, I rise to propose our motion that the National Assembly for Wales believes that Brexit gives Wales a great opportunity to boost trade, industry and employment; welcomes the freedom Brexit provides to create a tailor-made policy for Welsh agriculture and fishing; and calls on the Welsh Government to work closely in a positive frame of mind to capitalise on these opportunities and to involve all parties in the Assembly in its negotiations with the UK Government to maximise the potential benefits for Wales.

The debate on Brexit, for many, many months, has perhaps shed more heat than light. Amongst those who opposed Britain leaving the EU, a world has been conjured up— somewhat akin to a Hieronymus Bosch painting—of devils and demons and a world of fear. I hope that we’ve now moved beyond that. I was certainly encouraged by the words of the First Minister yesterday, in response to the leader of the opposition, where it was clear that he’s now beginning to think very positively about the future for Wales, and I applauded and approved what he said about a free trade agreement being the way forward.

I also was very taken by the speech that we heard this afternoon from Adam Price, who I think is a very open-minded and positive person, and I think he came forward with a number of very useful ideas—in stark contradistinction to the leader of his party, sadly, who is still trying to rerun the referendum on the debate on immigration, despite the fact that her own constituency, the Rhondda, voted even more overwhelmingly for Brexit than the rest of Wales.

The future is bright for Wales, in my opinion, as a result of the opportunities that Brexit gives us. It’s not the case that if we remained within the EU, somehow or other everything would be stable and we would have no problems. Of course, change is constant in the business world. Anybody who’s ever run a business, particularly a trading business, knows that the world is full of uncertainties: it’s the way you capitalise upon them that is the difference between success and failure. It is important to us, of course, that we should obtain tariff-free access to the single market, but it’s not something that we should be prepared to pay any price to obtain. There are other important public policy issues that have to be taken into consideration too.

It is true that we export to the EU maybe 5 per cent of Britain’s GDP. Clearly, that’s important, but, we have to recall, the flipside of that argument is that 95 per cent of our economy is not involved in exporting to the EU. So, we should keep these questions in perspective. And even that part of our trade that is exports to the EU, 65 per cent of it would be subject to a tariff of less than 4 per cent if we came to no agreement at all as a result of Brexit with our partners across the channel. So, it is only 35 per cent of our exports that are really in issue in these trade negotiations.

Most important, of course, is the automotive industry. But, there again, we have opportunities rather than challenges, in my view: we export £8.5 billion in value in cars to the EU, but they export to us—i.e. we import from them—£23 billion-worth of cars. So, they’re selling to us three times what we sell to them. Of that £23 billion that we buy from European car manufactures, £20 billion comes from Germany alone. So, Germany is going to play a massive part in the decisions that fall to be made on the future trading relationship between Britain and the European Union. It seems utterly fanciful to me to imagine that German car manufacturers are for a moment going to countenance tariffs on trade between us because Germany would be massively the loser. Even in terms of pounds per head or euros per head, the situation is that Germany is the winner, relative to Britain.

Will the Member give way?

Sure.

I thank the Member for giving way. Does he recognise that the United Kingdom will not be negotiating with Germany in trade negotiations? It will be negotiating with the entire European Union, and therefore perhaps he’s taking far too much for granted in his attitude to the Germans overall.

Well, it’s true that the European Commission will be the body that does the negotiating, but anybody who knows anything about the EU knows who calls the shots within it. I have been a member of the European Council of Ministers, albeit some time ago, but, if you think that Germany will have little influence in these decisions, I’m afraid you’re not living in the same world as the rest of us.

Again, agriculture is important to us, not least to my region, Mid and West Wales, but, even on food and drink, we have a £17 billion a year deficit with the EU. It’s massively in their interest to maintain the freest possible trade between our two bodies—Britain and what remains of the EU. Being out of the EU gives us the opportunity to make changes to the law that affects our industries, which we can’t do within it because of the very reason that Steffan Lewis alluded to a moment ago, that you’ve got to get the agreement of 27 or 28 other countries in order to pass EU legislation. So, as regards the steel industry, as we know, we will have the opportunity to make significant reductions in energy prices, if we want to take those decisions, which we can’t do at the moment, or we can only do imperfectly at the moment. Energy prices are 6 per cent of the costs of the steel industry overall, so, if we could halve our energy prices, even to what they charge in Germany, that would be a big benefit to our British steel industry, and not just the steel industry in Port Talbot but also Shotton as well.

So, I just don’t understand how we can have a nationalist party opposite that doesn’t want its laws made in Cardiff and is happy not just to have them made in Westminster, but also even further away in Brussels. This seems to me a massive opportunity for Wales, not just for the UK, to devolve lots of issues to Cardiff rather than to Westminster. So, I have no fears for the future of Wales’s ability to compete in the world at large. James Dyson, one of our great entrepreneurs, a massive exporter, points out that we have a £100 billion a year deficit with the EU in our trade and, even if import duties were to be imposed upon us, then, in comparison with currency swings, that is marginal. So, the world of uncertainty in which business lives already has to cope with the kinds of uncertainties that have been added to by Brexit, and they cope very, very well.

Being out of the EU gives us the opportunity to amend agricultural policy, for example, in particular the second limb of our motion today, and to design an agricultural policy that is tailor made for the specific circumstances of Wales. We have a lot more upland farmers in Wales than is true of the rest of the UK, and certainly than is true of the rest of the EU. We will be able to design an agricultural policy that is specific to their needs. It’s up to us. I hope that agricultural policy will be fully devolved to us here in Cardiff. And, as a result of leaving the EU, all the responsibilities of the European Commission will come to this Assembly and to the Welsh Government, because that will enable us—[Interruption.] Yes, and the cash, too. I’ve already said many, many times, responding to Carl Sargeant, that Wales should get every single penny of public money that currently is spent in Wales by the European Union. That involves, I suppose, a negotiation with the UK Government, but we shouldn’t shy away from that and it’s our money, so there is a Brexit dividend on top, because, as we know, £10 billion a year of our money is spent elsewhere in the EU, not back in the UK. So, we want our share of that as well, which, on a per-head basis, would be an extra £500 million a year to spend in Wales for the benefit of the Welsh people.

Being outside the EU gives us the opportunity to make micro changes to agricultural policy as well, on herbicides and pesticides regulations, on health and safety issues, where the costs that are imposed may be wholly disproportionate to the benefits that are achieved. So, for example, let’s take a very mundane and prosaic example of bracken control on the hills: we will be able to relicense Asulam as a means of controlling bracken, which we can’t do now, which was fully accredited under the previous control regime, and we had no problems with that. But when control was vested in the European Union then we had no say and that was banned. So, there are lots of instances of that kind also where we will have the opportunity to reduce the costs of our manufacturers and farmers and other trading bodies so that we will become more competitive in the world. It’s a combination of taking advantage of new markets, which we’ll be able to because we will now have the freedom to negotiate free trade agreements on our own account with other parts of the world—

Will you give way?

Yes, certainly.

Thank you very much. With the greatest of respect, we have heard this speech several times before. At the briefings lunch time in the Assembly, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said it is now the consensus of economists that the British economy is going to shrink as a result of Brexit. So, while we are hearing increased informed commentary about the negative effects that come before us, the smug, self-satisfied speech we keep hearing time and again from Neil Hamilton is getting a little thin.

Well, I wonder if Lee Waters is old enough to remember the 364 economists who predicted disaster after the 1981 budget, which proved to be the kick-start to the British economy, which gave us the massive growth—[Interruption.] Which gave us the massive growth that then took place in the British economy in the 1980s. Economics has traditionally been known as ‘the dismal science’ and for a very good reason. But I—[Interruption.] We can all quote our favourite economists, but, at the end of the day, economists’ predictions are all based upon assumptions and computer models. So, the consequence is that we have an opportunity to make the most of ourselves. So, the Welsh Government has to make the best of a situation that it didn’t want. I fully accept that they were on the losing side of the argument—like all Labour AMs, and all Plaid AMs come to that. The British people have made this decision and therefore we have to move forward in a positive frame of mind to make the best of the opportunity that is given to us and I’m glad that the First Minister is moving in this direction. I hope that Plaid Cymru also will move in this direction, following the lead that has been given today by Adam Price.

So, I have no hesitation whatsoever in commending our motion to the Assembly because Wales has its future in its own hands now, not in the hands of people who are not elected by us and whose identities, indeed, remain a mystery to the overwhelming majority of the people of the country. I would have thought a nationalist party would have actually applauded and approved of the opportunity for us as a Welsh people and a British people to make these decisions, rather than the people of other countries and even people who are not elected at all. That, I think, is a massive boon for us and the world is our oyster.

I have selected two amendments to the motion. If amendment 1 is agreed, amendment 2 will be deselected. [Interruption.] I think I’m having a competition here with the Cabinet Secretary for Education. I call on Mark Isherwood to move amendment 1 tabled in the name of Paul Davies.

As the First Minister told the External Affairs and Additional Legislation Committee on Monday, the issue of whether we should be part of the EU has been decided. Brexit now must be championed as an opportunity to boost trade, industry, employment, agriculture and fishing, but this will only happen if we grasp the nettle. I therefore move amendment 1, which recognises the outcome of the referendum on 23 June and calls on the Welsh Government to engage positively with the UK and other devolved Governments in securing the best possible outcome for Wales during the forthcoming negotiations.

The First Minister’s warnings in America of impending constitutional crisis and risk of economic harm were an object lesson in how not to sell Wales to the world. He did also state that Wales remains open for business, but the determined message from now on must be that Wales after Brexit will be a great place to invest and do business. Two months ago, the UK Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union announced that the UK already had 10 post-Brexit trade deals lined up. Because the UK has outsourced trade negotiation powers to Brussels for 43 years, the UK Government is now beefing up its team of trade negotiators and other expert staff. At this month’s G20 summit, the Prime Minister set out her ambition for the UK to become a global leader in free trade as a bold, confident outward-looking state. The leaders of India, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore said they would welcome talks to remove the barriers to trade between our countries and the Australian trade Minister visited the UK last week for exploratory discussions on the shape of a UK-Australia trade deal. Statements by the First Minister in the external affairs committee and Plenary rejecting engagement in pre-trade-agreement discussions and disparaging UK trade negotiators therefore risk Wales missing out. And evidence that the First Minister only met nine businesses during the four months between the date the referendum was called and polling day added to concern that the Welsh Government did not undertake detailed planning for the eventuality that the people would vote ‘leave’ in Wales.

Although Wales had a trade surplus with the EU last year, this month’s export figures show that the value of Welsh exports to EU countries fell by £586 million, almost 11 per cent, as exports to non-EU countries increased. Exports of UK goods and services to the EU have fallen from 54 per cent to 44 per cent of the total over the last decade. In 2014, the share of UK goods exports going to countries outside the EU was higher than every other EU member state bar Malta. Since 2014, Welsh exports to the EU have fallen from 44 per cent to 39 per cent of total exports. In the year to June 2016, Welsh exports to the EU fell a further 6 per cent, as they increased by over 9 per cent to the Asia-Pacific market.

The UK Government’s announcement that all structural and investment projects, including agri-environment schemes, signed before the autumn statement will be fully funded until 2020 is welcomed, as are guaranteed payments for universities participating in Horizon 2020, even when projects continue beyond EU exit. The Treasury also announced that further details of guaranteed funding arrangements for specific structural and investment fund projects signed after the autumn statement will be provided before the autumn statement. Again, the First Minister’s dismissal of dialogue over this yesterday risks Wales missing out.

As the Farmers’ Union of Wales president said after the FUW met the UK Minister of State for Exiting the EU:

‘the Chancellor’s statement needs to be localised to a Wales context by the Welsh Government.’

As he has also said:

‘we don’t want to copy just any other trading model. It is critical that we set up a trading model that suits the UK and Welsh agriculture, and now is our chance to do just that…our current bovine TB status poses a considerable threat in those trade negotiations and that this will have to be solved urgently’

by the Welsh Government. And, as the National Farmers Union President said:

‘The vote to leave the European Union means that food security must act as the catalyst for a new, bold ambition for Welsh farmers and growers. This is a once in a generation opportunity that NFU Cymru is determined to capitalise on in order to ensure the long-term viability and growth of our industry.’

So let us re-engage with the rest of the world and close the prosperity gap between Wales and other European nations at last.

I call on Steffan Lewis to move amendment 2 tabled in the name of Simon Thomas.

Diolch, Lywydd. I move the amendment in the name of Simon Thomas.

I’m afraid my contribution won’t be quite as full as sunshine and lollipops as the previous speakers’. Perhaps at some point I could explain to Neil Hamilton the difference between Welsh nationalism and British isolationism, but there isn’t enough time to go through that today.

The past 48 hours or so have shone a disturbing light over the position of the Welsh Government, in particular the public pronouncements of the First Minister on three fundamental points: firstly, the process of withdrawal from the EU itself, secondly, the nature of Wales and the UK’s relations with the EU post Brexit, and, thirdly, the constitutional status of Wales.

On the first point, the First Minister has said that he wants Welsh involvement in the process of withdrawal, but has not substantiated on what shape that would take other than saying he is waiting on the UK Government position first. He has not either elaborated on the nature of post-article 50 negotiations. Does he, for example, support a chapter-by-chapter accession-in-reverse model? Does he want negotiations themselves to be held in the UK—maybe some in Wales where there is a particular relevance to Welsh interests? What supervisory mechanisms does the Welsh Government want in place to ensure there is no Westminster power grab when it comes to policy fields being repatriated from the EU to the UK?

On the second point of Welsh and UK relations with the EU post Brexit, specifically on the single market, on Monday the First Minister told me and the external affairs committee that he did not favour membership of the single market. Yesterday in this Chamber, he told the leader of the opposition that he did, before then saying that he preferred a free trade deal. In his evidence to the external affairs committee on Monday, the First Minister took great pleasure in highlighting the UK’s lack of expertise in trade negotiations before ruling out recruiting Welsh trade negotiators to ensure Welsh interests are upheld and made clear to Dr Liam Fox’s department in Whitehall.

This is all further confused by the fact that the First Minister appears to have made free movement of people a red-line issue through suggesting a moratorium of free movement post Brexit—a moratorium that the First Minister prefers to be wholly controlled in Westminster because, again, on Monday he poured cold water on the suggestion of devolved Governments being able to issue work visas for sectors of the economy and public services where there are skills shortages. This could be potentially disastrous for the Welsh NHS and R&D in this country. There is a wider social point, I think, to be made, Llywydd, on the issue of migration, and I would ask all progressives in this Chamber and beyond to be wary of appearing to pander to the kind of politics that scapegoats migrants for the poor political and economic decisions made by people in London.

On the third point of Wales’s constitution, threats made by the First Minister in Chicago on the possible political ramifications, should there be a post-Brexit deal that is unacceptable to Wales, proved hollow by Monday, because he ruled out any referendum on Wales’s future under any circumstances. To be clear, that means that Westminster can do its worst to Wales—there will be no serious consequences as far as this country is concerned.

It is quite clear that the UK Government has little idea of where it is going, let alone how it is going to get there. What an opportunity for Wales to map a trajectory for itself that can make the most of the situation we find ourselves in now and, at the same time, strengthen our national resilience politically and economically. Plaid Cymru cannot accept a situation where Wales is a timid spectator. We must be shouting as loudly and consistently as the other devolved nations are, if we have any hope of defending our national interest. I ask the Government, again, to produce a comprehensive plan and set of proposals for the three stages Wales now faces: our rolling Brexit negotiations, the post-Brexit deal we want to see for Wales and the constitutional outcome for Wales that goes beyond empty words about a federal model and actually articulates exactly what that model would look like. Diolch yn fawr iawn.

In the days and weeks that preceded the Brexit vote and the days and weeks after, we have had dire warnings of an economic meltdown as a result of our decision to leave the EU. But, in recent weeks, economic data have proven the warnings as little more than scaremongering. But, this week, the British Chambers of Commerce have slightly revised their growth figures for the UK downwards, but have stated that the UK will not enter the much predicted recession and, at present, there will be economic fluctuations.

Despite earlier scare stories, I feel business confidence, even in small ways, is becoming prominent in Wales—

Will the Member take an intervention?

Yes.

Does she accept that, of course, we’re still a part of the European Union and that we could expect political and economic fluctuations and turmoil to occur once article 50 is triggered, and during the negotiations and the years of uncertainty that will follow article 50, and that to take for granted that things are going to go swimmingly is perhaps a bit naïve?

I hope that article 50 is triggered quite soon, so that everyone can just—[Interruption.] There will be a little bit of speculation in it. We are all speculating at the moment, and there are fluctuations that are going to happen. [Interruption.] Of course it matters to me, I live in Wales. What do you think matters to me? [Laughter.] Good grief. Where do you think I come from? [Interruption.]

Carry on, Caroline Jones.

Thank you very much. Last week, I was invited to the opening of two new businesses in my region. So, if people on the smaller scale are willing to invest their hard-earned money, then I can see other businesses capitalising as well, large businesses.

Will you take an intervention?

Yes.

What would be your message to the successful small business in my constituency that has decided to put all investment on hold until such a time as the question of Brexit has been resolved? Even if it all does come up roses at the end, we will have lost two, three, four or five years of potential investment in that business.

Well, all I can say, Rhun, is that, from personal experience, the businesses in my region—a lot of businesses—are opening new businesses, empty premises are becoming filled, and that I haven’t heard of any person saying to me that—. As a former businesswoman myself, I haven’t had anyone come to me or speak to me saying that they’re not going to take any opportunity because of Brexit. Nobody has come to me, so I can go on the experience I have. Thank you.

Last week I was invited to two businesses—people that are willing to invest in a small way and create employment—in my region. Brexit offers the UK and Wales a great opportunity, and we can see that. Airbus have said that they have no intention of pulling out. HSBC and Barclays bank have said that they’re not going anywhere and they will stay in Britain because London is the centre of the financial world. So, obviously, that’s going to trickle down to Wales. [Interruption.] It is. Of course it will. If London is the hub, then everywhere else is going to—[Interruption.] So, regardless of Brexit, we still have Austin Martin coming—

Aston Martin.

Yes, we have Aston Martin coming to St Athan, creating 750 jobs. So that’s no small feat, is it? Therefore, I do say that Brexit offers the UK and Wales a great opportunity to boost trade, grow our industry, and increase employment. Once we are released, as well, I think it will increase even further, when we trigger article 50. We firmly believe that we need free trade with the EU, not membership of the single market with all its restrictions. The UK Government need to get on with negotiating our exit from the EU as soon as possible so that we can capitalise on the opportunities that Brexit brings. The Welsh Government must work collaboratively with the UK Government to ensure that Wales’s interests are at the forefront of any Brexit negotiations. We shouldn’t be getting bogged down in discussing which model should be adopted. We simply wish to trade with the EU. We need our image to be one of buoyancy regarding our exit. We need to sell our country and all that it’s worth for all that we have. We need to capitalise on our country and the beauty that it offers and all the trade that we can get from the rest of the world.

We also say that Wales’s exports to the EU only account for 41 per cent of our world exports, and that has been declining over the past four years. So, we must work together—all parties—to provide the best possible solution and outcome for Wales. Our trade deals need to be ambitious, looking at a global market. We don’t need to overburden ourselves with red tape just to maintain access to the single market.

Will you take an intervention?

Not again. We have to embrace free trade with the whole world, rather than solely focusing on an increasingly insular trading bloc. It’s time for the UK Government to deliver on their promise that Brexit means Brexit, and we need Brexit as soon as possible.

I don’t want to repeat things that have already been said in the previous debate on Brexit that we heard earlier this evening, but I’m afraid that the contributions we’ve heard on this debate are symptomatic of the oversimplistic presentation of the situation that we are in and the risks that we face.

I’m amazed, like many others, that so many farmers chose to vote to leave, with little regard to the loss of income that potentially could come to them. I heard recently of one farmer who voted to leave who receives £69,000 from the basic payment scheme, which is obviously a very good sum of money, compared with the average wage. How much do they make in profit from their farming business? A mere £5,000, which obviously calls into question the viability of that business if there’s a risk of the possibility of simply there being no farming payments in the future. We cannot rely on the Treasury to hand the money over. So, I think we have to listen to the reasons why such people may have voted ‘leave’. They talk about the need to get rid of regulation, but speaking on behalf of my urban constituency, regulation of the food industry and that guarantee that the common agricultural policy has given to consumers of the passage of food from the farm to the fork is an essential regulation that we absolutely have to maintain; otherwise, we will continue to suffer from appalling potential risks to public health. So, I really just want to caution us into thinking that there are simplistic solutions to this really complex problem that we have now been handed, and to ensure that we are mindful, not just of the incredibly hard work involved in farming—it is probably the physically most demanding job that anybody does in Wales—but also of the role that farmers play in ensuring that we safeguard our environment and meet our climate change obligations. So, there is an incredibly important role to play by farming communities and by the rural community, but also to safeguard the food we eat and to ensure we have a healthy future. But, I think to present it as if this was some easy possibility, and something to be sorted out simply because new business is being created in a particular area, is really not presenting the complexity of the problem that exists here. We certainly need to engage fully in looking at the economic challenges that the Minister for finance is going to be undertaking, and to ensure that every voice is heard, and not just those who shout loudest.

Well, it amazes me—the negativity that so often comes from the other side of this house. We’ve heard many things lauded in this Assembly with regard to the European Union. One of the AMs this morning alluded to the protection for workers within the European Union, and the legislation of the European Union that gave protection to those. You did in fact allude to that. Well, I would like to ask what protection that has given to migrant workers in this country. Over the last 10 years, we have seen a proliferation of such things as the car wash facilities in Wales, so that they are now almost a ubiquitous part of almost every town and village. Well, I can tell you that the legislation of Europe hasn’t protected those people in any way. Most of those people work 10 hours a day, seven days a week, for as little as £3 an hour. They don’t have contracts—not even that appalling zero-hours contract. Not only that, but they have no protective clothing in their work. So, all of this, which you say is coming out of the European Union to protect workers, certainly doesn’t protect that section of the working population.

To add to that, you keep saying as well about the protection of the environment. Actually, each and every one of these car washes actually washes down the effluent that they are using to wash the cars into our water streams. What sort of protection do we have from that? You are very selective about how you deal with protection for people—

Would you give way?

Yes.

It is slightly alarming listening to the anecdote that we are having in place of evidence when we face such severe economic challenges. Paul Johnson, who is the highly respected head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that our economy will be significantly smaller as a result of Brexit. So, let’s talk about facts and serious opinion, rather than anecdote.

Anecdote? So, the anecdote is that thousands of people can work in this country under appalling working conditions, and you call it an anecdote.

I’ll intervene again. Caroline Jones gave a speech based on some businesses she had met, and this is somehow a substantive response to all of the economists saying our economy is going to decline. And you’re telling us about effluent coming from car washes. So, that’s anecdote.

That doesn’t matter? That has no influence on how we keep this country clean? Well, it does matter. I want to take up another point, anyway, with the other AM who talked about a farmer getting £68,000 under the CAP payments. Well, there are farmers in England who get £1 million a year under the CAP payments for not growing products, and many of our farmers in Wales are—in fact, most of the farmers in Wales are actually in the mountain farming industry, where they get as little as £10,000 or £12,000. Hardly a living wage. [Interruption].

Will you take an intervention?

Yes, of course.

Thank you. So, are you actually saying that, post Brexit negotiations, our farmers in Wales will be better off?

I do. I honestly believe that the benefits they’ll get from coming out of the European Union, instead of subsidising inefficient French, German, Italian and Greek farmers, can be used to subsidise our farmers to a far greater degree. But I do agree with this: that we all have to work, cross-party, in this Assembly to make sure that the UK Government does deliver the bonus that we have from Europe, and we all have to work for that. Thank you.

I call the First Minister, Carwyn Jones.

Diolch, Lywydd. I'll try to add something different to a debate that's been running since yesterday afternoon and run again in an earlier debate in the Assembly. I listened carefully to what Neil Hamilton had to say. The first point that has to be emphasised is that nobody is arguing that tariffs should be imposed, but he places faith in German car manufacturers. I have to say to him that the negotiations are not with BMW; the negotiations are with the EU Commission, with 27 member states and the European Parliament. We have to convince them all to have a free trade agreement and not just BMW, Volkswagen, Audi and Mercedes-Benz. And they will continue to sell to the UK market because the tariff won’t affect them. They are a prestige marque; people will pay an extra £3,000 or £4,000 for a BMW because they can afford to do so. It doesn't affect them as much as it does Ford.

Fifty per cent of the exports that the UK sends out every year go to the European Union—50 per cent. It is by far our biggest trading partner. Anything that interferes with our access to that market per se is bad for the UK. Now, when I was in the US last week, all they wanted to talk about was what was going to happen to the UK. They do not see the UK as big enough as a place to invest in of itself. The EU is 440 million people. India and China, Russia are much, much bigger than the UK. We've got to get away from this idea that, somehow, the world owes the UK a living and the UK is somehow very, very important. To be very, very important, you need to have lots of people or lots of oil, then you get listened to. It's important to have friends in the rest of Europe and around the world to make sure that you can trade with them. The European Union gave us that ability to do that, but the people of Wales have spoken.

And in terms of other things he mentioned, food and drink—we will never have food security. It is impossible for the UK not to import food. We do not have the climate to actually feed ourselves. The war would have taught people that, surely. And so, if tariffs are imposed on food, people will still have to buy the food, but they will be paying the tariffs on top of that. If you look at the fruit and veg that comes into the UK, much of it comes from the European Union. If there are tariffs attracted to that, there's no UK producer who can replace that; you can't replace the import of tomatoes all year round, because the UK can't do that. So, at the end of the day, it's not possible to say that this is all to do with food security, because food security is mythical as far as the UK is concerned and it always will be. It's where we are in the world and it's to do with our latitude and our climate.

Now, there was one issue that troubled me particularly, but I suspect this is something that we will see over the next few months from some of the harder Brexiteers, and that is how we deal with all these pesky regulations: herbicides, pesticides, employment rights—all these things that have got in the way of the UK being competitive. You’ve talked of the environment. The UK had an appalling record on the environment in the 1980s. We were major polluters; we were causing acid rain around Europe. Some of our rivers were inflammable if you threw matches into them, and the UK had to be dragged into a better environmental policy by the rest of Europe. Under no circumstances would we permit as a Government our environmental standards to slip. Our people deserve better than that.

He talks about the £10 billion that's going to come. No-one believes that anymore. No-one uses that figure anymore, this mythical £10 billion. I look forward to the £620 million that we would be entitled to coming straight to Wales, no questions asked. I don't believe that that will happen.

He mentioned the 1981 budget—the most disastrous budget ever produced by any Government ever in Europe since the end of the second world war, which created 22 per cent inflation, 3.2 million people unemployed. One of the reasons for people feeling annoyed enough to vote to leave the European Union is because of that budget, because people saw manufacturing being decimated in the UK, saw a Conservative Government that didn’t care about manufacturing—and we see the echoes of that in some economists who say that service industries are more important than anything else. I have to say that London is indeed a financial centre as far as world finances are concerned, but if financial services in London cannot operate in the European Union, it won’t be for very much longer. The Swiss will tell you that they don’t have access to financial services in the rest of the European Union, and that means, of course, that they’re not able to operate there.

Now, we have to recognise these problems in order to get to a better position. The world is not as simple as some speakers might like to make out. Caroline Jones said—perhaps I’m doing her a disservice—‘Let’s get out now-ish’. What happens in Northern Ireland? What happens with the Republic? The great unanswered question is what happens to that border. People on the doorstep said to me, ‘We want control over our borders’. That’s never going to happen, because the UK doesn’t control the border with the Republic of Ireland. You start putting border posts back there, or security, and you break the Good Friday agreement. There is only one consequence of that, and it is serious.

These things have to be handled carefully. Not even the DUP wants to see a hard border back in Ireland. If you do these things without thinking carefully about the consequences and there are very, very serious consequences for the people of Northern Ireland, the Republic and indeed the rest of the UK. So, these things have to be considered very, very carefully.

In terms of what Mark Isherwood said, much of what he said is in keeping with his seating position in the Chamber, I might suggest, in terms of what he was saying. But again, he has to understand—I mean, some of the things he said were, frankly, naive. What the Treasury have said—let’s make no bones about it—is that, if a project is signed off before the autumn statement, it will get funding. That’s true. After that, they give no guarantees at all. Nothing. It’s all case by case and ‘We’ll decide whether you get funding or not’. It means that money that would have come to Wales will now face a barrier in London rather than the money flowing directly to us. That’s what they’ve said. [Interruption.] Of course.

Given that they’ve said that they were making a statement on this before the autumn statement, is it not therefore vital that Wales is engaged in close dialogue with them regarding that?

I’ll send the message now in terms of the dialogue: we want to see our funding guaranteed post the autumn statement as per the promise that was given by those who wanted out of the European Union. I warned at the time that we would end up in a situation where the Government in London would act as a brake on funding that comes to Wales automatically. Not even UKIP, in fairness, are in that position. They want to see the money come automatically. The Conservative Party finds itself in a different position even to UKIP on this, by not standing up for Wales and demanding that the money that we would have had continues to flow to Wales.

In terms of some of the other comments that were made, Steffan Lewis raised some interesting points. There are many questions to which there are no answers at the moment. The Scottish Government doesn’t have the answers. The Scottish Government has an answer in terms of wanting independence, possibly, but it doesn’t have answers in terms of a detailed plan. [Interruption.] Of course.

I thank the First Minister for giving way. The Scottish Government position is very clear. Scotland voted to remain in the European Union and the Scottish Government position is that Scotland remains in the European Union. If it is dragged out of the European Union against its will, then of course that is a different matter altogether. So, I don’t think you can make a parallel between the situation in this country, where we have a pro-EU Government in a country that voted to leave the European Union, and a Government in Scotland that wanted to remain in the EU with a country that voted that way as well. The situation is different here, so I think it merits a unique, proactive response from the Government of this country.

And that’s what makes it more complicated, which is why, of course, we had, for example, the British-Irish Council meeting here in July, something I demanded, in Glasgow, because we know there are other administrations that face the same dilemmas. Yes, we are in a different position to Scotland, but I don’t think Scotland fully understands where it wants to go next. Scotland, it’s no secret, wants to have some kind of special status within the EU. There’s no indication of that being offered in any way, shape or form. We don’t know, and there are so many difficult questions that have yet to be answered as a result.

We talk about the single market. It doesn’t matter if you talk about membership or access; what’s important is that you are able to sell, without tariffs, your goods and services in the single market, whatever you call it. What’s the difference? Membership, I suppose, means membership of the EU, possibly EEA membership, where you have a kind of country membership of the European Union. There are other alternatives that are difficult, hugely difficult, such as free trade agreements, which are possible in principle but hugely difficult in practice. But the fundamental principle is this: we must have access, tariff-free, for goods and services to the European market, and then work on the model that we would want.

We talk about the free movement of people. We know it was an issue out there. He and I would no doubt share the same view on this. But we can’t pretend that the people out there—that many of them, not all, but many of them—didn’t vote because of the issue of free movement of people. So, that is an issue that has to be handled very, very carefully as far as Wales is concerned.

He talks about a referendum. My preferred view is that there should be a ratification process that is respected, where all four Parliaments ratify any deal that’s on the table. That doesn’t mean we don’t get involved during the negotiation; we’re very much part of the negotiation—that much is hugely important. The last thing we want is to be presented with a fait accompli that we had no role in. But another referendum suggests either a rerun of membership—and there are dangers there, I’d suggest—or a referendum on independence. I understand that’s his party’s policy; that’s what he’s arguing for. If he wants to be explicit enough and argue for independence within the EU, then that’s no secret. I’m not putting words in his party’s mouth. That’s not where we are as a Government. We’re not in the position of advocating independence. We’ll leave that to the party opposite.

In terms of some of the things that Caroline Jones said, I’d urge Members not to use anecdote. Yes, of course there are some businesses that are going to grow. Some businesses are not affected in any way, shape or form by Brexit. There are some, but others are hugely affected and the US investors, at this present moment in time, are holding back to see what the UK does. They want to see what the final outcome of any deal actually is. They’ve told me—they’ve told me many, many times that that is the case. They want certainly and they want certainty soon.

Finally, I’m coming to an end. David Rowlands’s contribution—‘It’s appalling that there are foreigners coming to this country and washing our cars’ is effectively what he said. And then he said they’re being exploited. That’s the UK’s fault, not the EU. That’s the UK’s fault. [Interruption.] It’s the UK Government’s responsibility—[Interruption.] I will let you in in a second. It’s the UK Government’s responsibility to stop people being exploited in work—nothing to do with the EU, it’s a UK Government failure.

I did not say that migrants shouldn’t be coming here to wash our cars. What I said was we are giving migrant workers no protection as to how they’re being exploited. The reason for that is that there is a huge over-supply of cheap labour in the market, and if anybody knows anything about economics, they know that an over-supply of a product means that the price of the product goes down. That’s what I’m pointing out. And I’m pointing out that this Government here gives no protection to those people working in those type of industries. I picked up on the car-wash industry as we all know there’s a huge sub-industry in this country, in Wales, where people are being exploited simply because there’s an over-supply of labour in the market. Thank you.

I’ve listened to David Rowlands’s contributions over the weeks and he shares a particular view of the world with me: he doesn’t want to see people being exploited. But there are plenty in his party who don’t care, I can promise him. They’re more than happy to see people exploited over their own people, for their world is about low regulation, low wages and who cares. That’s what many in his party there—that’s what their view is. But, again, it comes back to the point that this has nothing to do with the EU—it’s the failure of the UK Government. Why do we have the minimum wage? Why isn’t is being enforced by the UK authorities? That’s the question—the fair question—that he asked. So, it’s hugely important. I have no problem with people coming here—I know them. A lot of them own their own businesses, for a start—they’re not exploiting themselves—but, at the end of the day, he puts a failure at the door of the EU that is firmly at the door of the UK in failing to actually make sure that people are not being exploited. He raises a fair point in that regard. But, nevertheless, I don’t agree with the way that he has raised it.

He talks about farming, Italian farming is amongst the most efficient in the world, actually. German faming is the same. British farming has subsidies, and I don’t argue against that because I know how important subsidies are to our farming industry. But it’s simply a myth to suggest that British farming is super-efficient compared to other countries in Europe. It just isn’t true. I’ve seen them in that regard. So, we have to be very, very careful about suggesting that somehow the common agricultural policy is designed to operate against Welsh and British farmers.

Finally—I’m coming to an end on this point—the second point I welcome. Yes, it is hugely important that we should be able to tailor agricultural and fisheries policies as far as Wales is concerned. It is in complete contrast to what Mark Reckless said yesterday when he said that what we wanted was a policy that operated across the UK without apparently any flexibility as far as Wales is concerned. So, I welcome the conversion over the past 24 hours.

I call on Neil Hamilton to reply to the debate.

Well, I spoke too soon earlier on—we’ve heard the same chorus of Jeremiahs as we’ve heard over the years; the First Minister’s even refighting the 1981 budget. The Labour Party is stuck in a mindset of the past. The reason we had to have the 1981 budget was because of the 1979 winter of discontent when Labour last ruined the country in a big way. But we’re not here to refight the battles of the 1980s—we’re here to win the battles of the 2010s. And with the kind of mindset that we’ve heard on the other benches today, we’re never going to win that battle because, as Mark Isherwood rightly said in following me in the debate at the start, if you’re going to sell something, if you’re going to sell a property, you’ve got to believe in it and you’ve got to go out there and be as positive as possible. That’s never going to happen with the kind of mindset that we hear, sadly, from the First Minister.

As far as German car manufacturers are concerned and whether they have any fear of a trade deal not being negotiated with Britain, they say this is the highest priority for the German Government in their view, and the idea that the people who run Mercedes, Audi or BMW have no influence on the German Government and that the German Government has no influence upon the European Commission is absolute moonshine and a world away from the world of reality.

We’ve heard many contributions today, some on our side who have been optimistic and positive, and others who are still stuck in this mindset of negativity. Jenny Rathbone said that we’re offering simplistic solutions. Nobody is offering a simplistic solution. Anybody who’s ever run a business knows the world isn’t simple; it changes from day to day. All I’m saying is that the challenges and the risks of being out of the European Union are far less than the challenges and risks of staying in it, because the EU is a failing project and the eurozone is a complete catastrophe. Europe is now half the size it was relatively in terms of trade compared to the rest of the world in 1980—30 per cent of world trade was accounted for then by the EU, and only 15 per cent now. The future of Wales is to be decided outside the EU in international trade terms, and this freedom, which is given to us as a result of the referendum, now puts into our own hands the tools and levers that we need to kick-start the Welsh economy of the future. How can a nationalist party not want to have the power in its own hands here in Wales or in the UK, not in Brussels—

Will you take an intervention?

[Continues.]—executed by people who we can elect and unelect and throw out if we don’t like the decisions they take. That is something that we can’t do in the EU.

Will you take an intervention?

I’ve come to the end of my speech, Madam Presiding Officer, and so I commend this motion to the house today in the spirit of optimism in which it is written.

The proposal is to agree the motion without amendment. Does any Member object? I will defer all voting on this item until voting time.

It was agreed that voting time should take place before the short debate. Unless three Members wish for the bell to be rung, I will proceed directly to voting time.

The first vote, therefore, is on the Plaid Cymru debate and I call for a vote on the motion tabled in the name of Simon Thomas. If the proposal is not agreed, we will vote on the amendments tabled to the motion. Open the vote. Close the vote. For 13, no abstentions, against 42. Therefore, the motion is not agreed.

I call for a vote on amendment 1. Open the vote. Close the vote. In favour 45, no abstentions and against 10.

I now call for a vote on amendment 2, tabled in the name of Jane Hutt. Open the vote. Close the vote. For 34, abstentions 10 and 11 against. The amendment is therefore agreed.

I now call for a vote on the motion as amended.

Open the vote. Close the vote. For 55, no abstentions, no-one against, and therefore the motion as amended is agreed.

The next vote is on the UK Independence Party debate and I call for a vote on the motion tabled in the name of Neil Hamilton. Open the vote. Close the vote. For 6, abstentions 0 and 48 against. Therefore, the motion is rejected.

I now call for a vote on amendment 1 tabled in the name of Paul Davies. If amendment 1 is agreed, amendment 2 will be deselected. Open the vote. Close the vote. For 39, abstentions 0 and against 15. The amendment is therefore agreed and, as amendment 1 was agreed, amendment 2 has been deselected.

I now therefore call for a vote on the motion as amended.

I open the vote. Close the vote. For 49, abstentions 0, against 6. Therefore, the motion as amended has been agreed.

Can I ask Members, if they’re leaving the Chamber, to do so quickly and quietly, please?

We are now going to move on to the short debate. I call Jenny Rathbone to speak on the topic she has chosen—Jenny.