Cynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru

Rebecca Evans, Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning.

Bore da. Duncan Hamer, director of economy, business and the regions.

Thank you so much. Ann.

Ann Watkin—bore da—head of strategy and planning for the mid and south-west region within business and regions.

Shall I start?

Yes, please.

Just last week, we had the opportunity to meet the leaders of the local authorities within the Arfor area, just to hear, really, from them on their reflections of the scheme, because, of course, it started its life as a proposal from local authorities themselves. And I was really taken by one description, which was 'a roaring success'. And I think the positivity in that meeting and the keenness to explore what more can be learned through the experiences of the Arfor projects has been really, really uplifting, in the sense of having that opportunity to look at the linkages between local economic development and support for the Welsh Language, and really shining a light on that, I think, has been really, really helpful.

And I think there have been some things that we can really point to that have been successful. I think collaboration has been one of the really important strengths of Arfor—more than 200 partners across the public, private and third sectors all working together with this aim of strengthening that link between the local economy and the Welsh language.

And then some of the work that's been done in relation to supporting young people to find a career and have that aspiration for a life within their local area, I think, has also been one of the things that, I think, collectively, people have seen as one of the big successes of Arfor. That said, of course, we await the findings of the Wavehill report and the pause and review work, but I think those are certainly early reflections that we would have on the successes, certainly.

Yes, I just wanted to ask why the meeing only took place so recently, given that Arfor came to an end—Arfor 2—a year ago. So, it's just to understand why that delay, because, obviously, one of the things you've emphasised previously has been the need to mainstream. So, I'm just quite surprised that you were only having that dialogue a week ago.

We wanted to have that conversation immediately ahead of committee today so that we could get the latest and also hear a bit more about the kind of pause and reflect work, and to understand the aspirations for the future as well. We did want to come to committee with the most fresh opinions from our colleagues in local government. Also, I think that the governance has been something that has been really positive in terms of the Arfor scheme as well. So, that programme board, supported by an officials group, has been really important in managing the day-to-day delivery. And, again, the feedback I've had is that that project board has been very useful. And, as I understand it, the review work that has taken place thus far said that the project board was one of the strengths of the Arfor scheme as well.

So, just for clarity, it wasn't the first time you'd met all local authority leaders to discuss Arfor; it was just prep for this specific meeting, or was it your first time discussing Arfor with them?

I can’t remember if we have had a previous Arfor meeting since I’ve been in post. I’ll check, but we did want to have a meeting before today. Obviously, those programme board meetings are regular, and the discussions between officials are regular as well.

The board meets on a regular basis and officials from the Welsh Government attend those board meetings. In addition to that, as the Cabinet Secretary has said, there are regular meetings of an officials group, and both officials from the economy department and the Welsh language department attend those meetings on a regular basis.

Thank you, Ann. Duncan, did you want to come in?

Yes, briefly. I was just going to add that it is also part of the current programme for government, so we routinely update the Cabinet Secretary on progress, both in terms of specifics on Arfor and how we’re now looking to mainstream that activity into my broader portfolio of economic developments and actions. So, it is a more regular update than the meeting that the Cab Sec mentioned—last week, I think it was.

I do meet so regularly with local government leaders in various different guises that I would have to double check.

Thank you.

Okay. That's fine. Gareth, did you want to come in?

Yes, I think we’re seeking a bit of clarity here. Obviously, you say that you attend meetings, whether that be virtually or in person, and that your exposure to those meetings has been fairly limited. We’re just, obviously, trying to gauge as a committee the Welsh Government's direct—. Or, can you give a precise analysis of the Welsh Government's role within this and say what actually is the Welsh Government's role within these meetings? Are they just being attended, or is the Welsh Government actually a key stakeholder within this and offering some good and tangible guidance and support wherever that’s needed?

I'll ask officials to reflect on the programme board specifically, but I do think that it's really important to reflect that this is very much a local government-led initiative, and so those projects themselves were developed by local government. The proposals around which of the pilots to start developing are, quite rightly, I think, local government led. So, they came to Welsh Government with the proposal, which, of course, formed part of the co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru.

And then, in terms of delivery as well, that's very local—so, partly through local government itself, but then I know that they've worked with partners, like Menter Môn, for example, and others, for delivery on the ground. So, in that sense, you would expect the Welsh Government to be allowing local government and their partners to be getting on with the actual day-to-day delivery, whilst also playing our part on the programme board, and so on.

Okay.

One of the things about having been around for so very long is that I can remember the genesis of the original Arfor programme, because I was in the room in a series of discussions between Leighton Andrews and Rhodri Glyn Thomas. Those were the two people who came together and the discussion they were having was on how we could do things to turn back the tide on an idea that, a decade or more ago, was still prevalent in the heartlands of the Welsh language, that the language held you back economically, that the language was a barrier to economic progress, that English was the language of commerce and the world, and Welsh wasn't something that helped you. The discussion was: how can we persuade people that, actually, the ability to speak Welsh is an economic asset to you, if you do it in the right way? That is what Arfor was originally intended to do. And I think, more than a decade later, that debate is different today than it was back then, and the discussions you have if you're out there talking to people who are part of Arfor is, 'How can we do more?', 'What are the most effective instruments?', 'What are the projects that have worked the best?' But the conversation is no longer so much about trying to make a difference to the mindset, trying to persuade people that Welsh can be an economic asset to you. I think that argument is sort of won, really, or at least it's won to a greater extent than it was then, and now what the debate is about is how we do that in the most effective way.

Diolch. So, Cabinet Secretary, in terms of where we've been in terms of an economic tool or an economic programme, your colleague Cabinet Secretary is very bullish about its success, and some of the numbers are impressive, to be fair. So, how do you see it succeeding or not? And what lessons do you draw from Arfor, in terms of economic policy?

So, you'll be aware that we're awaiting the results of the pause and review period alongside that extra work from Wavehill, but we do have some early findings, which do suggest that, perhaps, there should be, in future, assuming the scheme would continue, that there would have to be a stronger identity, in the sense that there was some brand confusion, because there were different schemes underneath Arfor that had their own identities as well. So, perhaps some greater thought given to that.

And then, another of the early findings is that there should be greater strategic consistency across the counties, whilst also retaining that valued local flexibility as well. So, there's definitely a balance to be struck there. And then, another early finding is around some tighter eligibility for some of the schemes. Cymunedau Mentrus, for example, I think that there are suggestions there that that might require some tighter eligibility criteria, to make sure that we're maximising the value for money there and creating jobs and showing that additionality, rather than supporting what's been referred to as lifestyle-type projects—things that will give people a wage and allow them to support themselves.

I'm grateful to you for that, and I agree with your conclusions on much of that. One of the things that strikes me about Arfor—. I'm a great fan of Pen Llŷn. I think it's one of the most gorgeous parts of our country and I like to spend time there. I went around Pen Llŷn with Dr Simon Brooks, actually, who we'll discuss in the next session, and what struck me was the number of locally owned and operated businesses that operated through the medium of Welsh. And it was wonderful. It was fantastic to see. And when I was sitting there, outside Cwrw Llŷn, looking across at Coffi Llŷn and the rest of it, I was thinking, 'Wouldn't it be fantastic if we could apply this sort of approach to economic activity or management or whatever to other parts of Wales?' I went to Coaltown Coffee just before Christmas, just outside Ammanford, and I'm thinking that there's a great, fantastic opportunity to encourage local ownership in a way that your colleague the Cabinet Secretary mentioned in terms of ideas about enterprise and taking control of local economies and the rest of it. And I'm thinking—we had a session last week in the economy committee on local growth deals—that there must be some lessons from Arfor that we can transfer to other policy areas in terms of the economy and investing in local economies.

Yes. Absolutely. Some of that's already happening as well. So, one of the things that we want to do with the review from Arfor 2 is make sure that we're able to mainstream some of that activity, so that other parts of Wales can benefit from the same kinds of approaches. So, work's already going on through Business Wales, which I'll ask Duncan just to say a bit more about.

So, a couple of observations first, Chair, just to build on what the Cabinet Secretary said on the learnings from Arfor 2. One of the challenges is that there are both quantitative and qualitative impacts, and what you've described in the Llŷn there is quite—. There are elements of qualitative areas that we perhaps haven't been able to measure effectively. So, one of the lessons, I think, is that we would very much like to track on longitudinal surveys, say, the young people coming through Llwyddo'n Lleol, how they develop and where they go, do they start those businesses you're talking to, so that we can really start to understand.

In terms of the mainstreaming, one of the direct—. Even though we're in a learn and review phase, we are already starting to implement. So, of course, all of our mainstream business support services are already bilingual. One of the challenges is that the uptake of those bilingual services isn't as high as you'd expect it to be, based on the population of business owners we know. So, we know there's a cultural piece there that we need to understand and that we think this research can do, but we're also starting to build in—. So, one example is that we're working with the Welsh Language Commissioner in Gwynedd to implement a Welsh language pledge for small and medium-sized enterprises on the basis of—. It's just below the sort of gold standard that the commissioner's put in place, to allow people to go on a journey of using Welsh routinely, alongside decarbonisation and equality work. So, it's very much kind of building the learnings of Arfor across the whole package of support that we offer.

I just wanted clarity. Cabinet Secretary, you mentioned some interim findings and obviously we don't have the final report from Wavehill. I just wanted to understand what you were referencing there and to really understand how all of this is progressing and shaping, because I'm not clear from what you were stating, sorry.

If I can pick up on that? Those interim findings are—. They were shared with us at the meeting between the Cabinet Secretary and the leaders, and they're the early indications coming out of the pause and review work. We're awaiting the final conclusions, and that's why we've caveated by saying they're early findings, because that work is still ongoing, as you'll appreciate, and we're waiting on the report.

By whom? By Wavehill, or—?

It's Wavehill and the local authorities working together, yes.

Okay. Thank you. Thank you for that clarity.

Thank you.

Just a few short questions about some of the economic impacts and some of the findings from the reports, so far, that we know. One of the suggestions, of course, is that the impact of grants has adversely impacted on other businesses within a broader region. Do you have any view on that or any evidence on that, or any concerns about whether there's been a distortion there?

In terms of displacement of activity from other areas—

Yes.

So, I would suggest that we wouldn't see that, partly because of the size of the grants available and the kinds of businesses that we're supporting. They don't really lend themselves to areas where we would be concerned about displacement. Actually, what we are seeing is additionality. So, a really good example is Decus Research Limited in Capel Hendre. They established a water testing lab, and they did that after the previous provider moved to England. So, essentially, they filled a local gap and were able to create opportunities for young scientific talent. I also had the real huge opportunity to open the Delineate Global Operations and Technology Centre in Llandysul, and that's the first tech firm of its kind in Ceredigion. There's really, really fantastic work going on there, and creating up to 50 jobs under a Wales-first recruitment policy, and they really are keen to grow their Welsh-speaking staff. So, rather than displacement, I do think that we're seeing additionality.

One of the most important things about Arfor is it's there to add value and it's there to augment what's already available through Business Wales, through those large interventions around the city and growth deals and so on, rather than be there to answer all of the economic questions of the area. But, I think, in terms of having that strong focus on additionality and creating jobs locally that support the Welsh language, I do think it's been successful. 

And then, just to tie in a couple of themes from that, within the broader economic development programmes of Welsh Government and, I suppose, more broadly, where it really fits in with that, to what extent it perhaps marginalises the focus of Welsh language within economic development policy, as opposed to becoming an integral part of broader economic policy. Do you see that as a challenge? You know, the sort of view that, 'Well, we're funding this, we have these pilots, therefore we don't need to focus on it in the broader economic policy.' Whereas, it seems to me, that all the areas we have within the Welsh Government operation, whether it be from education to health to development to environment, et cetera, all should be integrating the issue of the Welsh language within them. But do you see this as having any sort of consequence? Or are there any particular lessons, from experience, that you would learn from that, things that you might do differently in the future?

I think 'Cymraeg 2050' really sits well with our economic policy. You're absolutely right that support for the Welsh language has to run through everything that we do. It can't just be one £11 million single economic programme; it has to sit at the heart of other interventions as well. So, when you look at the work around the free port in north Wales, for example, that has explicitly identified the opportunities to support the Welsh language, through interventions to grow and support the local economy in north Wales. Similarly, we've been having lots of discussions recently about the opportunities presented by Wylfa. Again, none of those conversations happen without a discussion about how we use that opportunity to support and grow the Welsh language in the area as well. So, I think that Arfor plays a really important role in augmenting and adding value to what already happens. But, absolutely, it shouldn't be seen as something that is separate to the core aims of supporting Welsh.

Can I just follow on, because you mentioned Wylfa? The issue of social mobility and movements of people and so on have a massive impact on language, and also on economic policy as well. How do you see the challenges, then, of some of the major investments that are going to be taking place that would be bringing in an enormous amount of movement of people from all over and so on, and the impact that that then has on economic policy and the current programmes and the current role in terms of consolidating the Welsh language within those areas? It seems to me that they're going to present enormous challenges. I was just wondering if you see any particular way or specific need to look ahead to how that might be challenged and dealt with.

So, alongside these huge opportunities—so, the AI growth zone being another of those, and, of course, all of the new investment that there'll be in offshore wind around the Welsh coast and so on—. All of that will create a large number of jobs, and we need to be ensuring that Welsh people are as best placed as possible to make the most of those opportunities. So, around Wylfa, for example, we've got a project board within Welsh Government. That brings the teams from right across Welsh Government together, because we know that housing is going to be critically important, healthcare and so on—all of those different teams. But at the heart of this as well is support for the Welsh language, and understanding, actually, when you have a large number of jobs created, there is the potential for a large number of people to be moving into an area, and actually how do we make sure that we support the Welsh language in that circumstance. Because I do know that's a concern for some people, and we have to just recognise that from the start and plan to support the Welsh language. There are ways that we can do that, I think, through procurement and through making sure that as much of the value stays in Wales as possible. Recently, we had a skills summit in north Wales. Again, that was looking at the opportunities around Wylfa, the AI growth zone and other recent announcements. Again, at the heart of that conversation was the need to ensure that we support and grow the Welsh language through those interventions as well. So, I don't think that any of this sits separately from those larger economic interventions, but Arfor, I think, plays a very specific role, and I think it's been successful in doing that.

I suppose the point is, isn't it, that economic investment, particularly on the scale that we saw with the impact of industrialisation in Wales, and the impacts there that were never really addressed—. In fact, the prohibition of the language, working underground and so on, had a very significant effect in changing the whole nature of the Welsh language within communities. But it has impact in terms of a massive impact on the demography of a particular area. Obviously, education is absolutely fundamental to it, but it also carries with it a major risk. I was just wondering whether you thought that there's a need for a very specific sort of Arfor strategy to try to, I suppose, adapt to those inevitable changes that will take place.

I think this will be a wider question, both for Arfor but also for Welsh Government, in terms of those major projects. But, for Arfor, in terms of the pause and reflect, I think that each of the Arfor schemes have sought to address slightly different things. Young people—. Actually, an opportunity for young people has been at the heart of it throughout. If there is a further Arfor scheme in future, then I think that that will be one of the questions that they'll want to grapple with, because, actually, the economic picture now is very different to that picture when Arfor was first imagined.

Okay. Thank you. I've concluded.

Thank you.

I have Heledd and Gareth who want to come in on this. So, Heledd and then Gareth.

I think 'Cymraeg 2050' sits right alongside the economic mission, but, equally, I think some of the things that Arfor was trying to achieve are very much at the heart of the economic mission—so, opportunities for young people to work—

But I'm asking—. There's no reference at all to the Welsh language in that, which was at odds with previous strategies. Given that Arfor was only meant to be for three years, do you regret that there's no reference to the Welsh language in that? Do you think it's something that should be addressed in the future?

So, I would think and hope that any future economic strategy would absolutely have a strong reference to the important role that the economy can play in supporting the Welsh language, and, actually, it can draw on the lessons of Arfor to do that.

Thank you. I just want to drill a bit more down in terms of what it means in practice in terms of support around the economic policies and business support. We talk about highly skilled jobs in the west of Wales, Wylfa being one of them, the very highly skilled, niche areas. So, in terms of delivery, and what that means in practice, what would be your ambitions in that sense from the Welsh Government in terms of what you would want, how that would transpire in terms of reality? Because, obviously, because it's niche, you're not going to automatically attract people from that local area in terms of those jobs, because they require certain skills in order to do them. So, in that sense, where does it lie? Is it in terms of education, is it guidance? What would that look like to a business or an employer in terms of expanding the Welsh language? Does it become a statutory requirement? Does it become something that they can come into on a collegiate level, or where does it lie in terms of how the Welsh Government views its ambition to see those things transpire into reality in terms of economic policy and how we can embed it within those sorts of systems in that sense?

So, I think that the work that's happening through Business Wales already is really important, and I'll perhaps ask Duncan to say a bit more about that.

I think that Wylfa's a really good way of describing what you're talking to. We know that the Wylfa project—3,000 people employed on site at its peak. So, it's a different context to the original Horizon project. We also know the final investment decision is around 2030, with energy production around 2035.

So, in terms of opportunity, the Cabinet Secretary and I were both at the launch at Coleg Llandrillo when we were surrounded by 16, 17-year-olds looking for an opportunity to stay on the island. And why that's important—. At a recent visit to Hinkley, everywhere I went I could hear Welsh voices, and indeed got introduced. They were introduced as apprentices from the old Horizon project, but they're now kind of 35, so it was a bit strange, but the point was they were all saying, ‘We are wanting to return. We’re from Anglesey. We want to return. When is this happening?’ type of thing. And I'd say the same of the college students. We need to be able to provide that runway of opportunity. So, actually it does work for them, because 2030, 2035, by the time they get through their education—. We have to show that really clear runway.

Indeed, the Cabinet Secretary, I think this morning or yesterday, has approved some further support that we're going to do specifically around supply chain with Wylfa, so we can build capacity and readiness for those opportunities, and indeed, linked to the experience of Arfor, how do we provide opportunity for those young people in those communities, heavily Welsh-speaking—I guess it would be 80 per cent plus Welsh language in Coleg Llandrillo. So, we are starting to understand those links, and that's where Arfor’s really helped us to understand that balance of pure economic developments, but also the kind of cultural elements you need to put alongside those.

And just to say that the debate that Mick was pointing to is an international debate, not just a Welsh debate. If you look at other parts of the world where a lesser used language sits cheek by jowl with a dominant language, whether that's Estonian and Russian, whether it's Catalonian and Castilian, then these debates about in- and out-migration and the impact of major economic developments in bringing populations to them, these are debates you'll find well beyond Wales. In some ways I think we are well placed—. Because of the links that we have with some of those other nations and the work that our international division do there, we're well placed to draw on those wider discussions to help us address some of the issues when they occur in a Welsh context, as they certainly are going to occur in a major project like Wylfa.

I attended the Celtic forum meeting recently, and that was a really good opportunity as well for us actually to share in Wales what we're doing. Colleagues from across the Celtic nations were really, really keen to understand our approach to the Welsh language and to learn from us, and Arfor is a really good example that we were able to share with them.

So, I think one of the things that we have learned from Arfor is the importance of targeted economic investment, and specifically through Arfor I have in mind Galeri in Caernarfon and also Yr Egin in Carmarthenshire. I think both of those have been really, really important in terms of providing a kind of hub where Welsh language enterprise can grow from. I think that perhaps we could certainly do with more of that across Wales, and have those opportunities that provide a magnet, really, for entrepreneurship and for local growth for businesses through the Welsh language. I think those are both really good examples that we could certainly see more of.

Yes, so I was concerned—. I know that the committee's had some evidence around the growth deals, and so I've talked to the team about this. I'll obviously wait to see what the committee says, but I think it's something I would want to raise directly with the city and growth deals. That said, lots of the individuals who are involved with Arfor are the same individuals who are involved with the city and growth deals, so they will be aware of the importance and the approach of Arfor and the fact that there is a read-across. 

Some of the growth deals—. Certainly the north Wales growth deal does explicitly recognise bilingualism as an economic asset, and it reflects, of course, that the Welsh language is a really important part of the cultural and economic identity of the area. But if there's more that we can be doing to ensure that Welsh language considerations are given more of a spotlight through the growth deals, I'm more than happy to be raising those points.

If I may, just looking at the recent investment summit, Cabinet Secretary, how did the Welsh language feature in that? How much of a feature was it that we have, in many parts of Wales, bilingual communities, because, Cabinet Secretary, for the Welsh language referenced, there are parallels with other parts of the world? Do you see it as a plus when we're selling Wales that we do have this bilingual workforce?

Absolutely. I think that it is part of our Welsh offer. When people came to Wales to find out what we could offer, they wanted to find out about Wales, more so than particularly just what we can offer on the economy side of things. Actually, what we can offer is a fantastic culture, fantastic heritage, and I think that our language is part of our identity, and it's part of the attraction to Wales. We had people come into Wales from almost 30 different countries across the globe. Almost all of those are going to be bilingual countries, so they operate in more than one language naturally. I think that it doesn't faze international businesses and investors when they are presented with a country that is working in two languages. I think it's an asset.

I wasn't asking if it fazed them, I was asking whether you picked up that they saw it as an advantage compared to England that, for instance, we are a bilingual nation.

I think it's certainly an asset, and I think it's something that excites people about Wales as well. It makes us different, and it's something that I think we need to—. And we do, I think, to be fair, through Visit Wales and so on—. We had our first Visit Wales Welsh language campaign last year, 'come and feel the hwyl'. I think that was probably our most successful campaign. It had international reach. People got it and people really enjoyed it and leaned into it. So, I think that we should use it as an asset, because it is an asset.

Following on from that question, I think the Welsh Government does promote the Welsh language and Wales as a bilingual country, but I'm not sure that it's fully holistic sometimes or joined up. I was in the embassy in Washington last year talking to Welsh Government staff, and I wish you'd be less shy about the success of our international office network. I think it's one of the great successes of Welsh Government over the last decade or so, the work that's been done there. We really need to trumpet that, I think. They were certainly promoting Wales as a bilingual country and as a bilingual community, if you like. That is something that stands out, particularly in that market in North America. But also, then, it's making it a reality when we come home, if you like. That offer to tourism, that offer to investors, that offer to ourselves as a people is that of the holistic Wales brand. The Irish do it remarkably well, the Scots do it very well, and I think sometimes we do it very, very well but in silos. And I'm just wondering whether we've got lessons to learn there about bringing these things together and doing it more holistically.

We've certainly done some research work, actually, on a 'made in Wales' brand. The Irish version is tremendously successful, so there has been some work done on that and what the value could be, particularly for businesses. Because, actually, as Welsh people, we like to buy Welsh, and so sometimes we just need it to be easily identifiable on the shelves and so on. So, some work has been done, but nothing has been launched in that space yet.

I do think sometimes we under-appreciate how special Wales looks to people from outside, because we're here all the time and we see it all the time, don't we? But sometimes that sense of identity, that Wales is not just another anonymous spot on the face of a globalised world—. If you come to Wales, if you bring your business to Wales, you're not just getting the economic things that come with it, but you're getting a sense of being somewhere different. If we're swapping embassy stories, I met Clwb Hiraeth in the embassy in Tokyo. Clwb Hiraeth is a club of Japanese people who spent part of their career working in Wales and they get together regularly just to remember the experience that they had here and how special Wales was. And making sure that we appreciate that enough to make it part of our economic offer is, I think, really important. The language is obviously very important, but it's more than language, it's geography, it's history, it's culture, it's all the things that we live every day because we're here, and people come from outside to see with different sort of eyes, and it really matters to them.

You're not going to get us disagreeing with that, but I guess it just begs the question, again, why the Welsh language doesn't feature in the mission for the economy currently, given everything that you've outlined there. And also with Arfor, we're still a year on from that scheme coming to an end, and we don't know how that's going to be progressed, or seeing that, actually, it worked, so we're going to increase that investment. I'm just really unclear, given everything we've looked at, where the Welsh language features in the economy strategy, how Arfor has helped shape that and what happens next from Arfor. Maybe it's a reflection more than anything, but, yes, I just can't see, if it's not in the mission for the economy, how that's substantiated within Government strategy.

But the economic mission doesn't sit separately from our other overarching strategies as Government, including 'Cymraeg 2050'. And we are already trying to embed the learning from Arfor, so Duncan's talked about some of the work that we're doing through Business Wales; we're also now providing more bilingual workshops. We've got the Welsh language for your business business online support service module, and also links to Helo Blod for translation and branding support as well, so some of these things are already happening. I know that all of us, perhaps on a party political basis, will be paying close attention to what else we can learn from Arfor, because what comes next, I suppose, is up to parties and up to the next Government to decide. But I hope that what Arfor has been able to do—. And let's remember, it was only ever in the first instance intended to be around testing different approaches, piloting different approaches, and I think, in terms of doing that and being able to provide experiences that we can reflect on to determine something for the future, it's been really successful and quite instructive.

Thank you for that. Gareth to lead us in our final questions.

Obviously, we talk about economic prospects, and I've long been an advocate for that to be grown in Wales, but, obviously, what we can't achieve as much as we'd like is presence on an international stage. I always come at it from promoting things like tourism, through expanding the efficacy of Visit Wales, for example, without Government intervention. But how do we marry that also with British culture as well, because we talk about—? Obviously, Welsh culture is very important, but also we've got to remember we are part of the United Kingdom, so how does that tie in, in your view, with being a successful 'made in Britain' and Wales economy? Because we've got to face the facts that we don't make much anymore compared with what we used to. [Interruption.] We very much rely on a service economy. Let's be real. So, how do we do that within the realities of the economy that we are essentially living in?

Specifically on Arfor, if there are any reflections that you had on that.

There's lots to unpick there. Just very briefly, I would highlight the importance of our growing advanced manufacturing space. So, that was something that was really important in the international investment summit. It's one of the key sectors that we're working on jointly with the UK Government in relation to the industrial strategy. But to bring it back to Arfor, advanced manufacturing—lots of that would potentially be in the supply-chain space for nuclear, and, again, that brings us back to those trying to close that loop to Arfor and the Welsh language. 

But then I also want to say how important our international offices are. It's already been recognised today. All but one of those are co-located with UK Government international offices. So, in that sense, it's really important that the UK Government is also selling Wales. One of your sister committees has been doing an inquiry into inward investment. In that, we looked at our international offices, and I was able to set out some more detail of the work that we're doing jointly with the UK Government to promote Wales.

We do great work promoting Wales and the Welsh language as part of that, but we've always said that we want to see the UK Government doing more to promote Wales as part of its British promotion abroad.

And did you have those conversations with the UK Government in terms of how that's delivered at ground level and ensuring that its efficacy is delivered on that basis?

Yes. So, the UK Government, I know, has been talking about brand Wales, and we're really keen that that doesn't duplicate what we're doing in Wales, because we think that our Cymru-Wales brand is already actually very strong. So, we've been doing lots of work over many years, and, actually, if you attend any of the international expos, for example, that we take businesses to right across the globe, our stand is spectacular. It really does look fantastic, and it draws people to it. Inevitably, then, those conversations then lead to business and to jobs being created in Wales. So, that brand is really, really strong. But we're keen to continue to work with the UK Government to ensure that they promote Wales fully abroad as well. Sorry for going off Arfor, but—

No, no, it's fine. Heledd, you had one final question in the last minute and a half.

Operationally, we are linked, so, for example, on the business support side, the Welsh department fund our specific Welsh language answer-the-phone service, if you like, and a lot of our online support tools are delivered jointly. So, in effect, we are operating as one. It's kind of representative of the way that we're sat here together in that provision. So, we are really looking to always mainstream and work together in a collaborative way.

Going back to the economic mission, implicit in what we do is that 'Cymraeg 2050'—we're trying to build that in through everything we do and build on the experience of Arfor to mainstream it.

If it's helpful, just in terms of how that works, as the director with responsibility for the Welsh language, I am part of the economic strategy board. I'm part of the Wylfa programme board. Just coming as someone who's relatively new to the Welsh Government, that has been a really important structural way to ensure that 'Cymraeg 2050' isn't divorced from the wider economic agenda. Just to echo what the Cabinet Secretary was saying, I think one of the very first conversations that Duncan and I were in was about Wylfa and the way in which we looked right from the beginning at the impact on the Welsh language, potentially, and seeing it as an opportunity to strengthen Cymraeg in its heartlands, rather than as a risk to be managed. So, I think that that reflects the mainstreaming of 'Cymraeg 2050' into the wider work of economic colleagues, to put Cymraeg in at the—. And I think that that probably reflects the experience of Arfor—it's building on that approach. 

'Do I speak Welsh? I'm going to say "no", because that's the safe answer. I won't be prosecuted for saying I don't speak it', or you fear you might be if someone came and tested you and found you weren't a chapel deacon after all. So, the more formal the question, the more formal the setting, we know that has an impact on people's confidence to answer that question.

I think that we can get to a position where we've got a better understanding of why people answer in the way they do, and why people answer differently in the two main sources we use. We know a few things about that. The less language you use, the more likely you are to give a different answer in the two main surveys we have. Younger people are more likely than older people to answer the questions differently. There's a lot of quite detailed understanding that we now have. In the end, the question of whether you speak Welsh or not isn't a matter of fact, is it? It's a matter of judgment. It's a matter of perception. Sometimes, it's a matter of political persuasion as well. But I think we can do more and do better. I don't want to suggest that we'll get to a day where we can say how many apples there are on that tree. You can count them, there is only one answer. The Welsh language will not be like that. 

I don't think that snapshot data is the most useful to you as a Government; it's trend data you need to know, isn't it? The fact that you can have a snapshot that tells you that so many people did this on a certain day, well, was that more, was that less? It's trend data.

I just wanted to follow up on this point about the optimism over the language and what is really happening. And I notice, for example, when you look at social media, and look at something like LinkedIn, it basically says, 'Do you have any languages?' And you have two categories; you have either basic proficiency or you have natural, almost first-language fluency. There is no in-between in terms of actual usage or understanding of it. And that's something reflected—. I came to Wales in 1973, and to see the transformation in the approach to the language now, from something that was regarded almost with horror and division in many parts of Wales, to something that is now owned—. 

I suppose the point is this: in terms of being optimistic, we have to have an understanding as to where we really are. And it does seem to me—and I know this from many people I've known over many years, who I've always regarded as Welsh speakers, but who do not describe themselves as Welsh speakers, particularly in industrial parts; we used to see a lot of this with some of the former mine workers and it shocked me—that we have a massive underestimate of the actual scale of usage, or ability, or colloquial usage of Welsh. And that's something that gets underestimated or gets countered by these sort of ONS, census-type figures that say that you're either at 25 per cent, or you're 20 per cent, it's gone down a per cent, or whatever. And it doesn't actually reflect what seems to me is actually quite a broader acceptance, and actual growth, and a whole variety of different levels. And that optimism is something, it seems to me, absolutely fundamental that we need to be promoting. That's what moves us to a situation of almost bilingualism. We go abroad to countries, people flip from one language to the other with absolutely no difficulty whatsoever. It really just seems to be in the UK, perhaps because English is such a dominant world language, that it's almost considered something strange that people might flit in and out of different languages or have those choices available to them.

Well, look, Mick, I think I agree with lots of that. Of course, when people speak Welsh, people go in and out of the language all the time. Am I allowed to say that an article that I remember reading a long time ago had the wonderful title, which was, 'O, mam, mae hwnna'n total bollocks'? [Laughter.] [Interruption.]

Well, you've said it now.

Sorry, I was just reminded. That was the title of the article, and it was all about code switching, as it's called, where people use it and how they use it and so on. It's very ordinary in other parts of the world, and it's very ordinary in Wales as well.

One of the reasons I said I feel optimistic about the language is because the situation, as you described it, is so very different now than when I was growing up, when the language was a matter of always conflict and division, in lots of different ways. Politically, it was divisive between generations. It was divisive in so many ways. And we're in a better position on that than we were today. It obviously does not mean that some of the huge challenges that any lesser-used language in a globalising world faces every single day—. But I think sometimes even we are surprised. So, just one example—sorry, Chair, I'm looking at the time—we commissioned research in this Senedd term on place names, because we were afraid that places that had long histories of Welsh place names were being lost and that English place names were replacing them. What we found was that, for every name that was being changed from Welsh into English—. Were there five times as many? There was a multiple of five times as many that would be changed from English into Welsh? [Correction: between three and four times as many.] So, actually, the trend is exactly the opposite to the one that we feared. Not that we ought not to be concerned when Welsh place names are lost, but there are far more names being changed the other way in Wales today than we feared. There was research that was done, in places like north-east Wales, where new streets are being given Welsh names, and you would think, 'How will that go down?' No, no, people really liked it. Even though they didn't speak Welsh, the fact that they lived in a street that had a Welsh name told them something important about who they were and where they lived, and was strongly supported by them. I think that's ground we've gained.

Heledd.

Diolch, Cadeirydd. I want to focus my line of questioning on registered social landlords and what extent you as Cabinet Secretary and Welsh Government assess the financial implications of placing the Welsh language on RSLs, because in my anecdotal analysis of things, I think, as it stands, registered social landlords practice the Welsh language very well, which achieves more than sometimes the general population of that area. So, in terms of the standards and the financial implications of that, what would be your general assessment of that situation?

Well, Chair, I agree with what Gareth Davies says about the actions that the sector make already. They all have Welsh language schemes. We are not talking about moving from a world where RSLs do nothing for the Welsh language to suddenly having to do a hugely burdensome set of things. We're talking about an evolution where their Welsh language schemes will now be overtaken by the standards. It is genuinely challenging to provide figures for regulatory impact assessments and things here, because this is a two-stage process. We will be bringing RSLs under the umbrella of the standards regime, but the actual standards that they have to comply with, and the extent to which they have to comply with, is not a decision for the Welsh Government; it is a decision for the commissioner to make. So, to an extent, when you are trying to provide figures in the RIA for the regulations, it is slightly in the dark, really, because you don't know exactly what different RSLs will be required to do.

Again, I'm a strong supporter of the way the current commissioner has discharged her responsibilities in this area. She has been having, I know, because I met with her recently, loads of conversations through her office with RSLs in every part of Wales. She does not, for a minute, envisage a blanket approach in that what you require of a housing association in the north-west of Wales would be identical to what you expect in the south-east of Wales. She will want a proportionate and reasonable regime that builds on what is there already and is proportionate to the population that that RSL serves.

Putting actual figures, the way that Gareth asked, on all of that is quite difficult, because she hasn't made all of those decisions. But I think all the experience we have had so far—and not just with this commissioner, but with previous commissioners—is that these things are done in a way that the costs are absorbable. There would be no appeals to tribunals, which can be made by organisations that are brought within the standards on this point. Since the very beginning—. There were three, I think, in 2016, right at the very beginning of the standards regime, when everybody was really trying to find their feet in it, and none since. I don't think that this will be a significant financial challenge for the sector, because it's an evolution.

That's part of the anxiety, really, that there is no tangible figure on it all, because some say that a low cost would be as little as £5,000, where others have noted high costs of up to £2.5 million. Given that we can't put a figure on that—not that I'd say it would be a fixed figure, because of the reasons you have noted, through regional variations and such—but given that we can't do that, and given the comments that I made in my first question in terms of that they practice the Welsh language very well as it is, and given that we can't put a figure on that, is it a bit like reinventing the wheel in some cases, which could come at the detriment financially of housing associations, where their core and their primary focus is to provide housing for those who need it the most?

Well, I will make two slightly different points, Chair. Just to be clear: one person's cost is another person's opportunity. The reason we have standards is because, in Wales, people have a right to use the Welsh language in their interactions with those very important bodies that provide services in their lives. So, even if—. I'm not saying there will not be costs, but those costs are not for nothing. Those costs will guarantee people the right to use the Welsh language in their interaction with registered social landlords in a different way than the current Welsh language scheme does. So, these are costs for a purpose, and a purpose that, as the Minister responsible for the Welsh language, I strongly support.

But it would also really squeeze their finances in some ways, because the UK Treasury have placed borrowing limits on housing associations. So, naturally, because they can't borrow as much and would potentially be making costs of up to £2.5 million, then, in that sense, it's ultimately going to be a squeeze at some point along that transition phase.

The difficulty there is the one I pointed to, which is that you're asking people to make an estimate of costs for obligations where they don't know what those obligations will be. I'm absolutely confident that no housing association will be paying millions of pounds in order to comply with the standards. One of the things the commissioner is obliged to take into account in setting the standards is the cost. So, when she makes her judgment about reasonableness and proportionality—which she has to do; that's what the law requires her to do—she will be bearing that in mind.

I think the figures at the one end of the spectrum are from associations that have assumed that they will have to provide a fully bilingual service in every single aspect of what they do, and it really won't be like that. And the reason I think we can be confident of that is that we've brought other organisations under the standards during this Senedd term. So, health boards have been brought under the standards and we know that they have been able to absorb the costs without it being a disproportionate burden. That's not what we're doing here. That's not the point of it and it won't be the practical impact of it once the commissioner has done her job of determining which standards are reasonable and proportionate for each different RSL that we have.

It's a subjective conversation, I think, in many ways. But, in terms of a worst-case scenario, where, you know—. Because it's what the RSLs have noted themselves as a highest estimated cost, up to £2.5 million. So, again, worst-case scenario, would the Welsh Government be willing to provide any additional support in that sense—whether that be financially or systematically—in terms of providing either financial support or services to housing associations to put them in a position where they can focus on their core services and what they provide?

I'll just ask you to answer that. We'll probably have to move on after that, because of time.

My apologies.

I don't think that is the right answer. The right answer is for the commissioner to exercise her responsibilities to navigate standards in a way, as I say, that is reasonable and proportionate and allows registered social landlords to absorb the modest costs that will be involved. I think to do it otherwise would be to create a set of perverse incentives in the system.

As I understand it, the current system means if you're moving a school into a different category, even when that is a relatively marginal change, you have to use the same system as though you were changing the whole linguistic character of a school. Say you had an English-medium school and the local authority plans to change that into a Welsh-medium school, well, that's a big change, and you'd expect a fairly extensive consultation and so on, but you have to use the same system if all you are doing is marginally moving. Now, what the new Act does is it allows a more proportionate system for local authorities who are moving schools, not fundamentally, but along a continuum, which will make it easier and will speed the process up. It's a laborious process. When I talk to people, they say it's a laborious process, an off-putting process for a local authority. There are local authorities still planning further moves in RCT, in Powys, in Neath Port Talbot, and so on.

So, if we can manage to continue to have the same number of young people coming into Welsh-medium education over the next decade, we will meet the 50 per cent, because that number will be a percentage of a smaller base. It's not the challenge that some people think it is. It's why I was happy to accept an amendment discussed with Plaid Cymru during the passage of the Bill to change that percentage, because the challenge is not quite the challenge that some people would make it out to be. We've simply got to work hard, with all the things we've succeeded in doing already, to sustain the current number of young people coming forward for Welsh-medium education, and we will get to that percentage.

'The Act is very difficult. It puts an awful lot of extra pressure into the system.'

I want to just be proportionate about that. I don't think it is like that. If we can continue to build on the successes we have had, we will get to that 50 per cent.

Just a couple of questions, and I'll be very succinct bearing in mind the time. I'll perhaps put them together. You started mentioning about late immersion centres, and I've actually seen some of the really excellent work with family members who have been through it. It's incredibly successful. But, on the conversation we might have had earlier about places like Morfa, where you will have people moving in, families and so on, children choosing and going into Welsh-medium school, I suppose, really, what the progress is on immersion centres and how you see that as part of that strategy in accommodating those demographic changes that will be taking place in certain parts.

And then, just to follow on from that, because it flows on, obviously, one of the challenges in the growth of Welsh-medium education, which I've always felt is the fundament in terms of the preservation and development of the language, is having sufficient teachers and having a sufficient workforce, and training teachers in Welsh teaching and retaining them, and, I suppose, the incentives that go with that.

Then, I just had one comment, when I go round the primary schools in my constituency, the English-medium ones, the amount of Welsh in those, the singing and so on, the actual profile of that and the extent to which that has been successful, I think, is quite transformative, really. It's something that you just didn't envisage. Sometimes, you have to think, 'Is this a Welsh-medium school or isn't it?', when you go in, because of the way in which that has changed, which has been, I think, a big and successful part of the educational transformation in Wales.

Thanks very much to Mick for those. On the late immersion side of things, I really think this is one of the strong success stories of the post-pandemic period. That's why the late immersion centres were really invented, because of anxieties that those young people had lost a whole set of opportunities and we needed to make good on that. So, there are 26 primary and 16 secondary late immersion centres now across Wales, and the number has grown steadily. Some 9,000 young people have been through the late immersion system since it was established. Again, in a way that was not anticipated, some of the gains have been greatest in those areas where the language is not spoken every day. Newport had a very strongly positive Estyn inspection of their late immersion service, and a strong number of young people coming late into the language in a place where those opportunities hadn't been as prevalent as we now are able to provide.

I'm looking forward a lot to looking at the outcome of some work we're doing at the moment with Flintshire County Council. They are looking at a pilot of late immersion provision aligned with CEFR—the point that Heledd was making earlier. So, a very explicit alignment between the work that goes on in late immersion and what capacity in the language do people reach in it. I don't want to divert too much, but CEFR is very clear that you measure people's ability in the different domains of the language. How you speak and how you write may be different. You might be in a different place on the CEFR in those things. I have met people whose written Welsh is fantastic, because they have learnt it as an adult, but who really hesitate to speak. There are other people, of course, whose spoken language is more fluent than their ability to write. So, the Flintshire pilot, I think, will help us a lot to align our late immersion work and the CEFR in future.

On the issue of recruiting and retaining teachers, we do an awful lot in this area. I think the challenge is to know which of the many things we do have the greatest impact and can be done more in the future. So the cynllun pontio is a programme that brings people back into teaching, who have left teaching, or helps people to move from primary to secondary education, or helps people to move from English-medium to Welsh-medium teaching. There are a lot of help for people out there. Schools have access to the Welsh-medium workforce capacity development grant. The Open University is a big player, particularly amongst teaching assistants who want to become teachers but are having to work at the same time. The Open University is a huge asset to people in those circumstances. And there are other things we are doing as well. Lynne Neagle will publish her strategic education workforce plan before the end of the term and that should help us in this area as well.

On the incentive side that Mick mentioned, again, there is a lot of evidence that the bursaries that are provided have had an impact, but whether it is a causal impact is very hard indeed to know because there are many other things that people will be weighing up, and the bursary will be one of them. We've had three years of the Welsh in education retention bursary and the numbers have gone up in every year, and maybe the bursary is the reason for it, or maybe the bursary is just one of a more complex set of considerations that individuals weigh up when they decide whether or not to continue as teachers after those first three years.

—mainstreaming as against concentration. To give you a different example, the debate I've remembered in almost every Government that's been formed: 'Do you have a Minister for children?'. And there's the argument: you have a Minister for children, it gives it profile, it gives it clout, it gives it—. On the other hand, does that mean that everybody else thinks, 'Oh, I don't need to think about children now, because, look, there's a Minister for children and that's their job to do'. And that's true in the Welsh language as well, isn't it? I am the Minister for the Welsh language, but, by and large, I've seen it as my job much more to work with my colleagues to make sure that they are attending to the Welsh language in the responsibilities that they have, rather than thinking that they don't need to think about the Welsh language because there's somebody over there who's got it in his title. It's a continuous debate, isn't it, as to which is the best way to resolve that dilemma.